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9261 posts

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  #2416082 11-Feb-2020 11:49
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The official death toll in China is now 1011, 42,268 *confirmed cases, 7323 cases "serious" (incl "critical" - not separately reported from all regions).

 

*I understand that China has standardised reporting so that asymptomatic cases that test positive are now not included in the confirmed case tally.  AFAICT, the policy was that the rRT-PCR test was only given to patients meeting specific clinical criteria, so I expect nobody "officially" knows how many tests would have been carried out on asymptomatic people - or how they would have been qualified to be tested - they're possibly mainly health workers.


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Uber Geek


  #2416093 11-Feb-2020 12:02
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If these cruise ships can't get their quarantine done right we might see our 2nd death outside China being on one of them soon





Most problems are the result of previous solutions...

All comment's I make are my own personal opinion and do not in any way, shape or form reflect the views of current or former employers unless specifically stated 

 
 
 
 


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Uber Geek


  #2416098 11-Feb-2020 12:06
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Selected transcript from the US task force briefing a couple of days ago (full briefing on youtube here):

 

 

Dan Vergano: (33:05)
Dan Vergano with Buzzfeed news. I’m wondering what the task force outlook is on the trajectory of this outbreak. Is containment still possible at this point, or are we just doing things to buy time for a pandemic? And does that matter? Do your actions change either way you’re looking at this thing? Thank you.

 

Secretary Azar: (33:21)
Let me ask Bob. If you don’t mind. (Bob = Robert Redfield - Director of CDC)

 

Robert Redfield: (33:22)
Yeah, I think that’s a really important question. Obviously in China, they’re in mitigation stages. Okay? They’re really now beyond containment. The virus right now is not under control in China. In the United States I think the multi-layer system that we’ve put out is still got us in a mode of containment. They’re not mutually exclusive, containment and mitigation. I can tell you, we’re actively beginning to think about what other steps we would take if there was broader cases occurring in the United States. But I do think right at this stage, we’re still in a containment phase, and the …

 

Robert Redfield: (34:03)
We’re still in a containment phase and the extraordinary efforts that we put out, I think most people know we haven’t instituted federal quarantine and in over 50 years. That I think the containment strategy we have with the continued cooperation of the American public that have recently returned to China to get in touch with their health department and the aggressive layered screening that we’re currently doing with the funneled airports, I think we’re in a still in that place. It doesn’t mean that two weeks from now or four weeks from now, we won’t need to begin looking at some mitigation strategies.

 

 

(Clickable time links to rev.com - that has an annoying ad/popup)




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  #2416107 11-Feb-2020 12:20
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arcon:

Batman:


arcon:


Batman: Never believe anything China says. But you can also include Iran, Trump, FBI, CIA, Putin, Russia, nth korea, w peters, etc. Just don't fully believe anything or anyone. But especially China. All lies.


What are you implying? It sounds a bit immature and off topic the way you've written it.



Well I really hope I'm staying on topic, as I don't want to be banned!


Here's an article from a reputable site, though it's an opinion piece.


I have travelled the world, places do not operate like it does here in New Zealand. However, places can also build a hospital in 10 days using the same culture, something that can't be done here in NZ given 10 years.


https://nypost.com/2020/02/08/chinas-culture-of-lies-has-helped-spread-the-coronavirus/



Wow that's great they can build a hospital in 10 days. If only they didn't need it in the first place by not contributing to the outbreak with a massive cover up of arresting doctors and promoting public gatherings when they knew about the virus. Pretty sure we wouldn't do that in New Zealand either.



Exactly. I hope they will seriously consider discouraging eating of wild animals. This has been the cause of these animal flu outbreaks every few years.




Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2416110 11-Feb-2020 12:23
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kingdragonfly: The “miracle mineral solution,” as it’s known online (MMS for short), is a solution of 28% sodium chlorite in distilled water.
...

 

Sounds suspiciously like what was sold in Samoa as a measles cure/prevention.

 

 


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  #2416111 11-Feb-2020 12:24
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AFAIK the practice of eating wild animals is already illegal there


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Uber Geek


  #2416113 11-Feb-2020 12:27
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This is very very good reporting - from the Ministry of Health in Singapore:

 

https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/one-more-case-discharged-two-new-cases-of-novel-coronavirus-infection-confirmed-10feb

 

If you exclude the cruise ship, then Singapore has the largest number of cases outside China.

 

People want trustworthy information about the present situation, if they don't have full confidence, then that's what causes panic.

 

"Trust us - we know what we're doing" is not going to work these days.

 

Edit.  I'm not the only one to notice.  This from Bloomberg (soft paywalled).

 

 

As governments in Asia struggle to reassure their populations over the coronavirus, public health experts say Singapore’s approach in communicating to the public is providing a model for others to reduce panic, rumors and conspiracy theories.

 


 
 
 
 


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Uber Geek


  #2416214 11-Feb-2020 14:26
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WHO's reporting:

 

"The World Health Organization’s Dr. Sylvia Briand told reporters the disease produces mild cold symptoms in about 80% of the cases they’ve seen so far. About 15% of the people who have contracted the virus have ended up with pneumonia, with 3% to 5% of all patients needing intensive care"

 

 

 

Also seeing a number being thrown around that the fatality rate outside Wuhan is 0.2% with internal to Wuhan being 6%+, Take with a grain of salt tho





Most problems are the result of previous solutions...

All comment's I make are my own personal opinion and do not in any way, shape or form reflect the views of current or former employers unless specifically stated 

9261 posts

Uber Geek


  #2416237 11-Feb-2020 15:11
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Beccara:

 

WHO's reporting:

 

"The World Health Organization’s Dr. Sylvia Briand told reporters the disease produces mild cold symptoms in about 80% of the cases they’ve seen so far. About 15% of the people who have contracted the virus have ended up with pneumonia, with 3% to 5% of all patients needing intensive care"

 

 

 

Also seeing a number being thrown around that the fatality rate outside Wuhan is 0.2% with internal to Wuhan being 6%+, Take with a grain of salt tho

 

 

You can't divide the number of deaths by number of confirmed cases to get a fatality rate until every case that you're looking at has either died or recovered.

 

I have no idea what data WHO used to base the comment that "80%" of cases are mild.  The Chinese don't test people with mild cold/flu-like symptoms for nCoV, so the total number of infected is unknown.  Elsewhere, the outbreaks haven't been going on long enough to collate data. Nobody knows - including WHO IMO.

 

Really good data and contact tracing / testing is going on in Singapore, and they seem to be reporting case data well: They have 45 confirmed cases, 7 remain in critical condition in intensive care= 15.5%, no deaths, 7 recovered.

 

There are possible reasons why the apparent fatality rate in Wuhan city is high.  Of course it could be that they've had the epidemic longest, so there's better data on the final mortality rate.  Or it could be that there are just far more actual cases than their method to report "confirmed" cases - this IMO is very likely, but you can't know what you don't know. It could be that improvements in case treatment/management have reduced mortality - that should also show in reduction in mortality elsewhere in China - but it's too early to say.  It could be that the virus itself has become less virulent, if so then eventually that would be picked up by mapping the genome.  It could be something else - or time may show that it's worse than expected.

 

 


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Master Geek


  #2416271 11-Feb-2020 16:45
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Fred99:

 

You can't divide the number of deaths by number of confirmed cases to get a fatality rate until every case that you're looking at has either died or recovered.

 

 

How about (deaths / (deaths + recovered))? Currently 20%.


9261 posts

Uber Geek


  #2416276 11-Feb-2020 17:09
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aspett:

 

Fred99:

 

You can't divide the number of deaths by number of confirmed cases to get a fatality rate until every case that you're looking at has either died or recovered.

 

 

How about (deaths / (deaths + recovered))? Currently 20%.

 

 

Same.  As time is going on, then that figure is getting lower and the trend is flattening indicating it's getting more accurate as the daily tally of new cases decreases as a % of overall cases due to containment efforts - but there's still plenty of room for error - ie the dead may die fast - the future survivors recover relatively slowly - or vice versa (which is more likely IMO).

 

Wuhan - where the outbreak first started and still the centre, reports a mortality rate (deaths/confirmed cases) of 4.05%.  The only good news about that is that they've probably got very many cases undiagnosed - and until they find that out, there's no way to guess overall mortality.

 

OTOH, with SARS there were also undiagnosed cases found out later by immunoglobulin tests when they became available.  Ratio there in health workers working in hospitals treating SARS patients was IIRC indicating that about 15% of SARS cases were never diagnosed (and about 10% got SARS).  If nCoV has much higher undiagnosed, then that's great in terms of overall mortality - but terrible in terms of containing a pandemic - as it's now certain that asymptomatic people can spread the infection.

 

 


3691 posts

Uber Geek


  #2416302 11-Feb-2020 17:35
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This lecture is being held on the Wellington Hospital campus, which is where the Wellington Otago Medical School is located.

It's about the Coronavirus

Experts talk | The Emerging Coronavirus Epidemic: Protecting our communities and ourselves

5:15pm Wednesday 12 February

University of Otago, Wellington
23a Mein Street | Wellington

For livestream, view here at Wed 5 pm

This forum will provide a valuable update on this growing epidemic. Topics will include what we know, such as the role of face masks and personal protective equipment in preventing the spread of coronavirus, and what still remains relatively unknown such as the seriousness of the epidemic and the potential for it to become a global pandemic.

15436 posts

Uber Geek


  #2416362 11-Feb-2020 18:32
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I was reading that over half a million could already be infected., as it is spreading silently. You don't actually know for weeks down the track that you have got it. 


65 posts

Master Geek


  #2416377 11-Feb-2020 19:37
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Fred99:

 

aspett:

 

Fred99:

 

You can't divide the number of deaths by number of confirmed cases to get a fatality rate until every case that you're looking at has either died or recovered.

 

 

How about (deaths / (deaths + recovered))? Currently 20%.

 

 

Same.  As time is going on, then that figure is getting lower and the trend is flattening indicating it's getting more accurate as the daily tally of new cases decreases as a % of overall cases due to containment efforts - but there's still plenty of room for error - ie the dead may die fast - the future survivors recover relatively slowly - or vice versa (which is more likely IMO).

 

Wuhan - where the outbreak first started and still the centre, reports a mortality rate (deaths/confirmed cases) of 4.05%.  The only good news about that is that they've probably got very many cases undiagnosed - and until they find that out, there's no way to guess overall mortality.

 

OTOH, with SARS there were also undiagnosed cases found out later by immunoglobulin tests when they became available.  Ratio there in health workers working in hospitals treating SARS patients was IIRC indicating that about 15% of SARS cases were never diagnosed (and about 10% got SARS).  If nCoV has much higher undiagnosed, then that's great in terms of overall mortality - but terrible in terms of containing a pandemic - as it's now certain that asymptomatic people can spread the infection.

 

 

It's clearly just as misguided to report a mortality rate based on unresolved (death or recovery) confirmed diagnosis. There's simply no way it's 2% or 4% as reported. The argument over what the mortality rate is, is probably as good as bike shedding at this point. Inevitably I will be wrong, you will be wrong, and the experts will be wrong until it's over, or measured over some temporal range.


1243 posts

Uber Geek


  #2416440 11-Feb-2020 21:04
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In areas where confirmed cases can be counted fairly accurately an evolving fatality rate does give guidance on responses. If we were 30 dead for 300 infected globally right know you can bet measures taken globally would be more drastic.

 

That said nobody should hold these numbers as gospel, The R0 and mortality rate will slide around often quite a bit over the course of an outbreak. 2009 Swine Flu was rolling with a 10% mortality rate for good bit before the non-presenting cases made there way into ED's





Most problems are the result of previous solutions...

All comment's I make are my own personal opinion and do not in any way, shape or form reflect the views of current or former employers unless specifically stated 

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