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783 posts

Ultimate Geek

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  #2445664 24-Mar-2020 19:08
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A comparison between per capita 'confirmed' infection rates and CFR for several countries.  Data as at 23 March.  NZ separated at the top as generally not comparable to the other countries.  First case here only 25 days ago whereas the other countries listed have had confirmed infection for more than double that time. NZ probable cases are included as is the case (in part?) for China. 

 

In the table, CFR (Case Fatality Rate) is calculated "No. Deaths divided by No. Confirmed Cases 7 days earlier" as per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct.  Numbers of cases & deaths generally sourced from Wikipedia (plus alternate US data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/).  Numbers of confirmed cases are subject to the extents and criteria of testing which vary between jurisdictions (highest in South Korea). 

 

A few observations:

 

  • Taiwan & Japan have the lowest per capita cases by a large margin, with China the third lowest (lower even than Australia).  Of course the corresponding figure for Hubei province would be a lot higher (but not as high as for Italy)
  • The other 'gold standard' state listed, Singapore, has 10 times the per capita rate of cases in Taiwan and Japan, though it is lower than most parts of Europe and the US. 
  • Singapore is though another jurisdiction where imported cases are a significant factor (only locked down the border a day or two ago)  
  • Singapore has the lowest CFR (0.8%), though with only two deaths that is very sensitive to any further deaths.  Other countries with low CFR rates are South Korea, Germany, and Australia (1.9%). Germany stands out in that regard from the other European countries listed, which have CFR values of 13% to 23%.  Again for Taiwan, the CFR is based off only 2 deaths.  Also, the current number of cases in Taiwan is three times what it was 7 days ago (hence the 3% figure). 
  • Notably, CFR is not well correlated with confirmed cases per capita.

 

 

 

The table data only tells part of the story.  The rates of increase in cases are also telling.  In almost all cases there is initially exponential increases in cases above 150.  The exponential phase lasts for a further 10 - 20 days before starting to roll off, depended on when restrictions and lockdowns are imposed.

 

Though still initially exponential the rates of growth in numbers in Japan and Singapore were notably lower than in China, the US, Europe (including Germany), and Australia (data not plotted for all countries in the table).  Singapore, Australia, the US, and possibly UK are still in the exponential phase, with the US still heading for 100,000 cases in the next few days, and potentially 300,000 in about 6 days. 

 

Japan is a particularly interesting case.  Not just a low number of cases per capital, and low initial growth in cases, but appears to have now 'rolled off' the exponential increase in cases.  Interesting because from a discussion with a colleague in Tokyo this morning:

 

"On COVID-19, here in Tokyo still relatively ok.  The office is split in two teams that don’t overlap. Abe has special powers for now, but nothing has been really enforced. ... We can go outside and all that stuff"

 

No lock down, offices still working near normally, and presumably still crowded subway trains.

 

It does make me wonder if wearing masks is possibly a significant factor, despite what we have been told.  Also likely applicable to Singapore, etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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  #2445665 24-Mar-2020 19:09
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Shapenz:

 

So my wife is a manager for one of the building supplies companies mentioned and one of their customers is currently working on a hospital... they still need a steady supply over the shutdown but that means that a fair amount of staff are needed in terms of managing stock coming inwards and outwards as drop shipping doesn’t seem to be a thing in the building industry.

 

They’ve been trying to get clarification from the govt but just keep on being told more details will come. I do think they could have/should have been much clearer on their definitions when they came up with the levels.

 

It's simple really.  Common sense dictates that if you're for example keeping a hospital running you keep providing that service but restrict your work to those essential services.  Send home staff not required.  Set up 'bubbles' of staff to reduce interaction and restrict access to common areas and all the other good advise already available.


 
 
 
 


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  #2445668 24-Mar-2020 19:13
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DarthKermit:

 

I assume that because a lot of people will be stuck at home they're capitalising on that and plan on some DIY projects that otherwise won't get done. I can't blame them for that.

 

 

 

 

And because of their choices, some of them (or people they've had contact with) will now be dead. 


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  #2445713 24-Mar-2020 19:27
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BDFL - Memuneh
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  #2445716 24-Mar-2020 19:34
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For those thinking Domino's and Hells will be open - they aren't supposed to be:

 

 

Will fast food delivery be available?

 

No - fast food is not included in the essential business list. This includes fast food delivery and Uber Eats delivery.

 

Food preparation is a particular area of risk which is why takeaways were closing, as while people collecting the food might not make contact, those in the kitchen would be."

 





 

 

These links are referral codes

 

Geekzone broadband switch | Eletricity comparison and switch | Hatch investment (NZ$ 10 bonus if NZ$100 deposited within 30 days) | Sharesies | Mighty Ape | Backblaze | Amazon | My technology disclosure 


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  #2445717 24-Mar-2020 19:35
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hio77:
Fourpeak:

 

Surprised to see Chorus Still intend to carry out Fibre installs, Surely getting Upgraded to Fibre cant be a essential service. especially if you already have a intact copper or wireless service.

 


Internet is deemed an essential service. One could argue copper isn't always right.

There are a ton of essential businesses out there now requiring more network build to support nz through this.

Based on what I've seen in order volumes a ton of folk are also very keen to ensure no congestion occurs.

 

 

 

Sure Internet is an essential service and faults should be fixed as well as essential business jobs during the lockdown, But to have Techs going to private households that are supposed to be in lockdown to do connections that are not necessary when there is already a service in place seems counter productive to helping stop the the spread of this virus.


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  #2445718 24-Mar-2020 19:35
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gchiu:

 

The sensible thing might have been to close Bunnings and Mitre10 etc down a day earlier without warning to prevent this.

 

Being forewarned just increased the risk by forcing people together.

 

 

 

 

hardware stores were pretty busy today. heaps of people wearing masks. was trying to get supplies for things to do and trying to keep my distance, but lady in the queue in front of me keep trying to chat and stand closer. sigh.


 
 
 
 


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  #2445720 24-Mar-2020 19:38
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freitasm:

 

For those thinking Domino's and Hells will be open - they aren't supposed to be:

 

 

They wen't even lower today.  After a few posts advertising specials and they were 'essential' but closing for pickup and going delivery only due to their awesome hands off delivery standards.  By 4pm that become a post with 3 images showing them delivering free food to medical centres, and supermarkets and freight company

 

Basically saying, look how good we are. Feeding the essential services in times of need. And with any luck the govt will notice and allow it to continue

 

I just went to screenshot and share this piece of art. To find it's been removed. The comments on it were not kind




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  #2445721 24-Mar-2020 19:40
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gchiu:

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120512908/coronavirus-pm-says-government-looking-into-quarantining-returning-kiwis

 

So, Govt is considering quarantining (enforced) returning citizens.

 

Maybe that they should also consider this for anyone arriving from a city in NZ where infection has been confirmed

 

 

if they had done this 2 weeks ago we wouldn't be in lockdown. they better not "consider" it. just do it already. cannot trust people to do it by "self".





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2445722 24-Mar-2020 19:41
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Oblivian:

 

freitasm:

 

For those thinking Domino's and Hells will be open - they aren't supposed to be:

 

 

They wen't even lower today.  After a few posts advertising specials and they were 'essential' but closing for pickup and going delivery only due to their awesome hands off delivery standards.  By 4pm that become a post with 3 images showing them delivering free food to medical centres, and supermarkets and freight company

 

Basically saying, look how good we are. Feeding the essential services in times of need. And with any luck the govt will notice and allow it to continue

 

I just went to screenshot and share this piece of art. To find it's been removed. The comments on it were not kind

 

 

As they shouldn't be. Some assholes are trying to ride the wave and make money on top of the people trying to stamp away something that could be fatal to anyone.

 

If you are not working in an essential activity you have to stay home.





 

 

These links are referral codes

 

Geekzone broadband switch | Eletricity comparison and switch | Hatch investment (NZ$ 10 bonus if NZ$100 deposited within 30 days) | Sharesies | Mighty Ape | Backblaze | Amazon | My technology disclosure 


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  #2445725 24-Mar-2020 19:44
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Update from Wellington Mayor:

 

 

Since the Government’s decision to move to Covid-19 alert level 3, and to alert level 4 from tomorrow, things have been moving very quickly.

 

These are unprecedented times, as you will be aware. As such, I want to make sure I’m keeping you up to date with the decisions that the council is making.

 

Parking – the City Council has turned off its metered parking system in the central city. This means motorists do not have to pay for on-street parking in the immediate future.

 

There will still be parking enforcement in the city and suburbs. Our focus will be on safe and considerate parking.

 

The Cable Car has ceased operating until further notice – principally because patronage has dropped dramatically.

 

E-scooters will be removed from the streets tomorrow as they are seen as a high risk in terms of possible Covid-19 spread due to the number of people who could potentially use them each day.

 

Dog registration has been put on hold for the immediate future.

 

For local businesspeople, there’s an online workshop tomorrow at 10am. This workshop is specifically targeted at the retail and hospitality sectors but will be useful also to businesses experiencing a very significant revenue loss. Go to the webpage of WellingtonNZ for further details.

 

Regarding the Annual Plan and the impact of Covid-19 on Wellingtonians - there’s great pressure on businesses and Wellington ratepayers due to the current situation, so we’re working through some options for rates to ease the burden that people are currently facing.

 

This includes both the 2020/21 rates and also for the fourth instalment of the 2019/20 year and will be informing the public as soon as we can in order to give people some certainty at this difficult time.

 

Most of us are already working from home. As of midnight tomorrow, we will be in lockdown. The next four weeks will be very challenging, but together we can make it through this. Please continue to follow the Ministry of Health guidelines to keep yourselves safe. Be safe, be calm, be kind. I will give you another update tomorrow. Kia kaha Wellington.

 





 

 

These links are referral codes

 

Geekzone broadband switch | Eletricity comparison and switch | Hatch investment (NZ$ 10 bonus if NZ$100 deposited within 30 days) | Sharesies | Mighty Ape | Backblaze | Amazon | My technology disclosure 


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Ultimate Geek


  #2445726 24-Mar-2020 19:44
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Went to Countdown tonight and it was reasonably sane. Perhaps all the hoarders had already filled their garages with toilet paper and their new freezers with meat, but there was a reasonable selection as long as you didn't have too many specific requirements - still no basmati rice and few less meat options.

 

There was hand sanitiser at the entrance that most people appeared to be using and markings on the floor to indicate how close to certain food counters you were allowed to get, although people were still figuring out that one.

 

It did inspire a certain level of confidence, probably more so than the little Dairy up the end of my road that claim they will still be open.





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Mad Scientist
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  #2445728 24-Mar-2020 19:48
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dumb question - i presume one can ride a bike for exercise (by yourself)? it says you can go outside to exercise as long as you keep 2m between others.





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2445730 24-Mar-2020 19:52
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Batman:


dumb question - i presume one can ride a bike for exercise (by yourself)? it says you can go outside to exercise as long as you keep 2m between others.



I think I saw that they said once a day.  But if you really locked down, you'd be getting out the Xbox etc and use those exercises instead.


Maybe MS can provide free subs to all those things that will keep people occupied inside instead of out.




Mod Edit - It's MS. Please read the FUG.

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  #2445732 24-Mar-2020 19:56
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Shapenz:

 

So my wife is a manager for one of the building supplies companies mentioned and one of their customers is currently working on a hospital... they still need a steady supply over the shutdown but that means that a fair amount of staff are needed in terms of managing stock coming inwards and outwards as drop shipping doesn’t seem to be a thing in the building industry.

 

They’ve been trying to get clarification from the govt but just keep on being told more details will come. I do think they could have/should have been much clearer on their definitions when they came up with the levels.

 

 

Cannot agree on that. As they said, either we lock down now and sort out these issues as we go, or we lock down in a week and let it spread in that week, especially when we see that slackness of many . My words, but that was the Govts meaning


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