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62 posts

Master Geek


  #2446833 26-Mar-2020 08:56
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Batman:

 

i see 3 apocalyptic scenarios, i better be wrong.

 

1. no cure, so just let the virus do its thing. Thanos finger snap. remember some are completely asymptomatic. we have a new human race of virus-humans.

 

2. no cure, a few islands lock up where nobody goes in and nobody goes out. (Singapore, Taiwan, ?NZ) forever.

 

3. a bit like 1, but virus mutates and everybody over 16 dies, civilization reverts back to stone age. 10,000 years later people go - i wonder why there is a tall green woman in new york island. i wonder how they built that. was there a civilization that we didn't know about?

 

 

This is pessimistic in the extreme. There are plenty of scenarios, far more likely than yours, where life goes back more or less to normal. A vaccine is not unlikely. Even if a vaccine fails, an anti-viral is likely. Even if an anti-viral fails, new treatments for respiratory distress are likely. Even if that fails, new strategies for living while preventing the spread of a virus is likely.


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  #2446835 26-Mar-2020 08:58
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dogstar001: I'm also confused. Are we trying to flatten the curve or eliminate the virus? Has the PM or Bloomfield clarified this?


The earlier approach was flatten the curve. Remember those charts? Now it's eradicate the virus as it was pointed out that curve flattening only made it easier to bury the dead.

 
 
 
 


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  #2446838 26-Mar-2020 09:00
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Tuckey:

 

I have seen that there are Spark stores open during COVID-19 

 

Although they are open 10-3PM in Palmerston North (I'm sure it is different all over the country and locations vary) But I wonder what precautions they are taking to protect team members and customers. Telco is an essential service I get that, but you would think business hubs would be the link in this chain to remotely triage accounts or issues. How is popping down to spark to get a screen protector for your phone considered essential.

 

 

Here is a release from the TCF (New Zealand Telecommunications Forum) that may cover this... Any shop not following this guideline is a rogue actor:

 

 

Telecommunications companies are lifeline utilities and as such are expected to continue to provide their services to New Zealanders during all Alert Levels. The industry takes this responsibility seriously, and our providers have robust business continuity plans in place to ensure they can continue to keep New Zealand connected during this challenging time.  

 

A number of telecommunications providers, including 2degrees, Vodafone and Spark, have a network of physical retail stores across the country. The industry received confirmation from Government last night that any entity that provides maintenance and repair services for utilities and communications, including their supply chains, is an essential service.

 

As such, industry is now working on a no-contact collection model that will allow its retail stores to provide essential services, such as modem and handset provision and SIM replacement, during the lock-down. While the details of this model are worked through, retail stores will close. Vodafone’s stores closed yesterday, and Spark and 2degrees stores will close at the end of trading on Wednesday March 25.

 

Geoff Thorn, CEO of the New Zealand Telecommunications Forum (TCF) said: “Customers need hardware to remain connected to friends and family and to work from home during the lock-down. If someone experiences an issue with a modem, handset or SIM during the four-week period, and cannot get these items replaced, they could be cut off from the outside world. The courier network may be heavily congested over the coming weeks, so implementing a purely online delivery solution could still leave people disconnected for days.

 

“To ensure we can keep all New Zealanders connected, the industry is currently designing a no-contact collection model that would allow some of its stores to continue operating. While the details are still being confirmed, in practice this would mean that while stores would remain closed to foot traffic they will act as distribution sites for a ‘no-contact’ pick-up by the customer. We are taking the time to get the model right, to ensure we are protecting the health and safety of the people who will be operating the retail stores.  

 

“Our goal is to maintain strict adherence to the lock-down – no contact between individuals – while ensuring no New Zealander is disconnected.”

 

The industry will ensure the no contact collection model is only utilised in the case of a genuine connectivity need.  

 





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  #2446840 26-Mar-2020 09:01
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gchiu:

The earlier approach was flatten the curve. Remember those charts?

 

Now it's eradicate the virus as it was pointed out that curve flattening only made it easier to bury the dead.

 

 

No!

 

Curve flattening makes it easier to treat the living, by preventing medical services from being overwhelmed.





Sideface


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  #2446841 26-Mar-2020 09:03
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To add to the above about immunity, test kits are already being produced in large quantities that detect human antibodies against the Covid-19 virus from a small sample of blood etc. It's a very quick and easy test too - ~10 minutes and not very different from a pregnancy test.  Probably even possible to get kits and "DIY".

 

But as yet not as useful as the current rRT-PCR tests for fast screening in contact tracing etc - as the tests aren't accurate (common false negatives) until at least several days after first symptoms appear.  The test will also show a positive result for someone who's had the infection in the past but is disease/virus free.


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  #2446842 26-Mar-2020 09:04
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A fully humanized soluble ACE2 receptor has been created by Josef Penninger's laboratory and experimentally blocks the virus. It's awaiting Chinese FDA equivalent authority to start clinical trials. It acts like a neutralising antibody.

Josef Penninger https://youtu.be/jAW6VBWTiAA 


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  #2446843 26-Mar-2020 09:06
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Sideface:

gchiu:

The earlier approach was flatten the curve. Remember those charts?


Now it's eradicate the virus as it was pointed out that curve flattening only made it easier to bury the dead.



No!


Curve flattening makes it easier to treat the living, by preventing medical services from being overwhelmed.



There's no way curve flattening still doesn't overwhelm NZ hospitals.

 
 
 
 


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Master Geek

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  #2446844 26-Mar-2020 09:07
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.

Worst scenario, we lose our senior politicians!


I think that’s the only thing that will make the US start to do the right thing. The realisation that the old ruling political elite are most likely to die from this thing.

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  #2446852 26-Mar-2020 09:17
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So how is day one of level four lockdown proceeding where you are?

 

My neighbourhood is very quiet. I've heard a train or two go by and some planes. Very few cars.

 

I'm about to go to my local pharmacy to get a prescription filled.


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  #2446854 26-Mar-2020 09:27
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ben28:
.

Worst scenario, we lose our senior politicians!


I think that’s the only thing that will make the US start to do the right thing. The realisation that the old ruling political elite are most likely to die from this thing.


Yep, a killer virus that targets old men with type A blood group and a history of smoking and drinking. Sounds just like the political masters of some countries.

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Ultimate Geek

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  #2446855 26-Mar-2020 09:28
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DarthKermit:So how is day one of level four lockdown proceeding where you are?

 

My neighbourhood is very quiet. I've heard a train or two go by and some planes. Very few cars.

 

I'm about to go to my local pharmacy to get a prescription filled.

 

The Christchurch Chinese Consulate Visa Office is OPEN!

 

The only car to arrive and park in vision of here has the drivers wheel on the lid of the Fire Hydrant! IDIOT Caregiver!

 

2 Unbelievable observations so far!

 

(Good luck with the Pharmacy)


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  #2446856 26-Mar-2020 09:28
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DarthKermit:

 

So how is day one of level four lockdown proceeding where you are?

 

My neighbourhood is very quiet. I've heard a train or two go by and some planes. Very few cars.

 

I'm about to go to my local pharmacy to get a prescription filled.

 

 

Low traffic, no planes (I see them come in all day, only 3 internationals for ChCh today), I already work from home, so as Sean Wallace would say, Just another day at the office DK!


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  #2446857 26-Mar-2020 09:29
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gchiu:

There's no way curve flattening still doesn't overwhelm NZ hospitals.

 

It depends what you mean by "overwhelm".

 

I was told yesterday (sure - just an anecdote - from hopefully a reliable source - Dr working in public health planning at the moment) that there's 200 "available" ventilators in NZ (ie before you have to make a choice as to who dies - to free up resources).

 

So based on overseas experience, that's probably about enough for maybe 1500 "active" cases, if we flatten it out then a few thousand total cases.  It could be doable of our lockdown is effective - and we should work toward that.

 

(Edit - it's probably a much higher figure than 1500 active cases - my mistake only some cases needing hospital level care needed mechanical ventilation)

 

It is a problem that we've got to add in and care for an unknown coming number of "imported" cases.   So far though, I think only 5/200 have needed hospital care - the numbers can be extracted from MoH public case data.  I'm not sure if any have required mechanical ventilation yet.  Have you heard?  The Singapore MoH website was a little more informative than ours as to the condition/treatment of cases.


BDFL - Memuneh
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  #2446858 26-Mar-2020 09:31
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  #2446859 26-Mar-2020 09:37
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Fred99:

gchiu:

There's no way curve flattening still doesn't overwhelm NZ hospitals.


It depends what you mean by "overwhelm".




NZ like many countries runs a hospital system that is always at peak capacity. That's why when winter comes the hospitals are full and beds flow into corridors etc. There is no extra capacity to handle a pandemic. I presume it's the way hospitals are funded. You don't have money to run a hospital with empty beds, and staff with little to do except be there there when required. Everyone needs a full time job. It's just health economics.

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