2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2447585 26-Mar-2020 21:57

Mahon:

This podcast with Bill Gates is very good and worth watching.

https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_how_we_must_respond_to_the_covid_19_pandemic

Definitely worth watching. He discusses a new alternative way to test, which doesn't require the swab being pushed in all the way up to the nose, which appears to be is how they are doing it in NZ, which is unpleasant can result in the patient coughing and requiring the protective equipment the person testing is using being replaced. Instead people do a self swab themselves, and it doesn't need to go as far up, and the kits could be sent out to peoples homes

Geektastic

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#2447589 26-Mar-2020 22:04

Without quoting @sbiddle I somewhat see his point.

I have wondered to myself

Whether this is self-inflicted in the sense that had we shut down the border properly sooner could we could actually have remained entirely free of the virus until a vaccine was developed? We had no cases (well, no known cases anyway) for a long while and with miles of sea around us in every direction, possibly could have isolated the nation from this altogether
Even if we could not avoid it, this lockdown won't do anything but slow it unless the vaccine appears meanwhile and yet I am sure a huge part of the population believe that after 4 weeks we can all go back to normal
How long can we actually realistically remain locked down in our homes? 400 days was posited in the research referred to - and I am pretty sure that would be a complete impossibility for a number of reasons varying from the economic to the mental health of the nation

I certainly do not claim any knowledge of answers but common sense tells me that we had a chance to prevent it ever getting here and blew it and that without a vaccine anything else is simply going to slow things down at best.

We will no doubt do as we are bid for now, but if we get to week 3 and the government tells us that actually it is now going to be 8 weeks not 4, I predict unrest and trouble. If they then tell us it is going to be 12 weeks not 8, I predict mass disobedience about which they can do nothing and all this will become moot.

gchiu

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#2447596 26-Mar-2020 22:16

I disagree. It's a virus and will work its way through the infected population and pass during the lockdown period. If the police relax, that just pushes out the lockdown period.

Interestingly 10% of recovered patients are still testing positive but it's not known if they're infectious during normal contact.

I don't think it's a good idea to let infected people to self isolate without any type of surveillance. It might take them 6 weeks to clear the disease, and are we really expecting them to stay inside??

DarthKermit

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#2447598 26-Mar-2020 22:16

One good thing from this lock down is no religious door knockers.

Fred99

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#2447600 26-Mar-2020 22:17

gchiu: Reports are still saying 20% of transmission is from asymptomatic infected. Virus found over cabin surfaces 17 days after passengers left. Viability? How would you tell as it's human disease.

That 20% figure is consistent with data from population studies using IGG/IGM testing - to find out how many had been infected in Chinese towns near Wuhan. The early mathematical models / hypothesis that the diagnosed cases were the "tip of an iceberg of asymptomatic cases" is not holding up.

(20% asymptomatic and infectious is still a serious problem)

As for the second question, you take swabs, transfer to live tissue culture in vitro, incubate, then test rRT-PCR. Multiple tests on multiple surfaces in multiple variable conditions, then assumptions made all over the place to come up with some result that's probably really ambiguous as to viral loads etc. It's a diabolical problem - they still don't really know with SARS - and that was almost 20 years ago.

Tinkerisk

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#2447602 26-Mar-2020 22:18

iamaelephant: The next few weeks in USA are going to be very grim. I hope it's not too late for them to get it together.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/worker-at-nyc-hospital-where-nurses-wear-trash-bags-as-protection-dies-from-coronavirus/

Sorry to say, as long as you consider any "petty-poop-jingle-ding-dong-shop" as essential - you should not worry you'll be too.

Essential means essential - or call it bare essential! It's up to you. I'll not be tired to put this to the wall again:

"All truth goes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed or distorted. Then it is fought. And finally it is taken for granted."

Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

It seems you are still in Phase I maybe II.

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Geektastic

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#2447604 26-Mar-2020 22:21

Geektastic:

On the general topic of banks etc, we are in the middle of a real estate transaction that went from "Covid is happening to other people" to "We are in lockdown" between having the offer accepted and reaching the date by which conditions must be signed off.

We have - on the advice of our solicitors and the vendor's agent - formally requested that the transaction be frozen during the lockdown period because it is too difficult to satisfy conditions. ADLS has also suggested that the best way to deal is by pausing these things on the grounds that a 'working day' should not include a Covid lockdown day.

It is of course up to the vendor whether they agree to this.

I mention it in case anyone else is in a similar position - do not be afraid to ask the other side to halt the transaction temporarily. I suspect most reasonable vendors and purchasers will agree. No guarantees in life though!

As an illustration of common sense and stress reduction, I nominate the vendor and the two sets of solicitors involved who have agreed that the satisfaction of conditions clause will now mean 10 working days after we return to Level 2.

My only fear is that this gives rise to a new and exciting legal problem whereby we have to move settlement too because we might end up with the 10 working days falling after the settlement date in the contract if this goes on too long!

However, kudos to everyone for using common sense in this challenging time.

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gchiu

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#2447605 26-Mar-2020 22:22

Sars research basically stopped in terms of many things including vaccine because they had no patients to test a vaccine on as the disease was eradicated from the human population.

Paul1977

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#2447606 26-Mar-2020 22:23

I think they’ll be enough idiots breaking the rules that, while there will be a definite slow down, cases will keep increasing. This will either mean the lock down will need to be extended (probably by a lot), or the lockdown will be lifted followed 2 weeks later by a surge in cases that will put us right back where we started.

The lockdown can only work if everyone follows the rules, and I fear in NZ too many people think the rules only apply to other people.

Geektastic

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#2447607 26-Mar-2020 22:24

gchiu: I disagree. It's a virus and will work its way through the infected population and pass during the lockdown period. If the police relax, that just pushes out the lockdown period.

Interestingly 10% of recovered patients are still testing positive but it's not known if they're infectious during normal contact.

I don't think it's a good idea to let infected people to self isolate without any type of surveillance. It might take them 6 weeks to clear the disease, and are we really expecting them to stay inside??

There are a fair few people in rural parts of NZ who will barely see a police car, never mind anything approaching surveillance! 🙃

mattwnz

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#2447612 26-Mar-2020 22:36

Geektastic:

We will no doubt do as we are bid for now, but if we get to week 3 and the government tells us that actually it is now going to be 8 weeks not 4, I predict unrest and trouble. If they then tell us it is going to be 12 weeks not 8, I predict mass disobedience about which they can do nothing and all this will become moot.

If the lockdown is extended, I would hope that people see what is going on in other countries, and will realize that it is a very small sacrifice to make to save lives.

Fred99

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#2447614 26-Mar-2020 22:39

gchiu: Sars research basically stopped in terms of many things including vaccine because they had no patients to test a vaccine on as the disease was eradicated from the human population.

Not sure I'd want to be a human guinea pig for a Covid-19 vaccine efficacy trial (let alone SARS or MERS). Probably better to choose volunteers amongst some of the wild optimists who think it's "just the flu", and that making a perfect vaccine will be easy peasy.

tdgeek

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#2447615 26-Mar-2020 22:40

sbiddle:

With all this doom and gloom I wanted to pose a few thoughts here for people to think about - with one question being key.

My opinion is this. China got this in Nov 2019. With harsh, forced measures, it has lasted 4 months and Wuhan is still under lockdown. Thats being slowly released now. Release a bit, see what happens. Another country without that harsh lockdown should take longer. In NZ's case, as we are small, cases are small, CT is low, and we have a proper lockdown, second only to China, its conceivable we "could" come out clean in a relatively short period of time, say Xmas. BUT, any country that achieves control, will be a LONG way from accepting travellers from The USA's and Europes of this world. By the time they have control, by whatever method, we will all be vacinned,as Europe and the USA, especially the USA, have no choice but to let it ravage their countries. it will just keep on ravaging until every last soul is infected , and cured or dead. But NZ won't be locked away as we did well, we will be locked away as its still ravaging elsewhere. There ,might be the NZ's, the South Korea's the Chinas of this world we can open to, but the rest we will get a vaccine first. Then we wont care as we can travel again, and receive them.

neb

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#2447617 26-Mar-2020 23:00

Unnecessary Inventions has just come out with the pandemic utility belt. Everything you need to fight Covid19 on one belt.

Geektastic

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#2447622 26-Mar-2020 23:27

mattwnz:

Geektastic:

We will no doubt do as we are bid for now, but if we get to week 3 and the government tells us that actually it is now going to be 8 weeks not 4, I predict unrest and trouble. If they then tell us it is going to be 12 weeks not 8, I predict mass disobedience about which they can do nothing and all this will become moot.

If the lockdown is extended, I would hope that people see what is going on in other countries, and will realize that it is a very small sacrifice to make to save lives.

Depends how long for. Too long and I think you have two hopes and one of them is called Bob.

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