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  #2448437 27-Mar-2020 21:24
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tdgeek: Im not very aware of Taiwan's role or ability with Covid-19


"Taiwan’s early understanding of the threat of the coronavirus could have given others advance warning. Taiwan’s inability to disseminate its findings cost lives."

https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/03/26/let-taiwan-into-the-world-health-organisation

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  #2448453 27-Mar-2020 21:44
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msukiwi:

 

freitasm:Jaysus Lord. This woman is so dumb. I mean I want to use some stronger words but this is... ridiculous. Watch the whole thing, it's only three minutes to figure out why America is going to go down quicker than anywhere else:

 

Giving you a +1 seems not enough to show how much I agree with you. This person is the future! So sad.

 

 

The sad thing is that they are giving her fame by putting her on the show.


 
 
 
 


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Master Geek


  #2448464 27-Mar-2020 22:09
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tdgeek: Im not very aware of Taiwan's role or ability with Covid-19


This article about Taiwan written 3 March is brilliant: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689

 

The fact NZ needed to do a lockdown means we have already done significantly worse than Taiwan: their economy is still running even with huge numbers of people coming to Taiwan from China in January, and they are a democratic country (although it hasn’t always been).

 

@tdgeek, you missed my link earlier this month (you were posting that day): https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=161&topicid=265423&page_no=120#2436335


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  #2448466 27-Mar-2020 22:10
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freitasm:

 

Jaysus Lord. This woman is so dumb. I mean I want to use some stronger words but this is... ridiculous. Watch the whole thing, it's only three minutes to figure out why America is going to go down quicker than anywhere else:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I thought "Idiocracy" was supposed to be a comedy.

 

It is a good job many women's shoes do not have laces - she probably needs help to tie them. Assuming her carer will let her have laces.






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Master Geek


  #2448467 27-Mar-2020 22:10
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gchiu:

 

arcon:

 

Depends on the definition of too late I guess, but the modelling for NZ predicts thousands of reported cases, and having ICU beds per capita much lower than other western nations is a major problem. Remember 368 reported cases not even close to the actual number of cases, due to asymptomatic & reporting lag. Having only 150 available ICU (last I checked), only a few thousand reported cases could be crunch time for doctors choosing patients to die. I'm not sure how Kiwis are going to react to that...

 

 

My definition of too late is reaching 120,000 dead.

 

Remember that all of those surgical theatres can convert their anaesthetic equipment to run as ventilators, and we have all the anaesthetists can run them.  

 

 

120K dead... can't actually tell if you're trolling that's pathetically low standards. I mean I voted Labour... but dam lol.


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  #2448474 27-Mar-2020 22:20
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mattwnz:

 

Geektastic: I’m busy trying to imagine life after lockdown.

The list of things that you would potentially be unable to do is not insignificant. Further, if this lock down goes on for say 25 weeks or something, there’ll be barely a functioning business left in the land.

I’m increasingly unsure just how long we can actually keep this level of restriction in place and still have anything resembling what was there before left for us to pick up.

 

 

 

I suggest watching the Bill Gates interview on what he believes should also be occurring if a country does a  lockdown. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe8fIjxicoo It relies on Testing Testing Testing, so we can work out who has it. There is also a new mail in self testing kit they have come up with. But I fear we are not going to be doing enough testing based on a lack of people doing the testing. 

 

 

 

 

I did watch it - thanks for the link. Yes, Bill and I are in agreement (but not about OS types!). I had said to the memsahib only earlier today that when we get out of this, I fully expect international air travel to be about 25% of what it was for quite a number of years.

 

 

 

Absent a vaccine being available, EVERYONE coming into NZ after lockdown ends, regardless of their passport issuer, will need to be tested or quarantined. Ideally, a test that can be administered in seconds like a blood sugar test.

 

Once there is a vaccine, then it will have to be like Yellow Fever - no entering unless you have been vaccinated and carry a certificate (maybe a stamp in your passport) to prove it.

 

 

 

I think the days of carefree wandering the world are done for now, even if we get out of lockdown.






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Master Geek


  #2448478 27-Mar-2020 22:22
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Gurezaemon:

 

Absolutely. And right now, Japan is in the middle of its hayfever season, for which masks can help a lot.

 

 

That shows that ”surgical” masks work against coronavirus. Pollen is tiny, and if cheap masks help against hayfever, then they also help against aerosols/droplets.

 

It depresses me to see all this focus on washing hands and fomites, when simple steps against a respiratory disease have not been taken. It’s like western countries have some sort of blind spot: everyone could wear a bandanna over nose and mouth. Even if it only reduces transmission by 20%, that would be a fantastic win due to reduction in exponential growth.

 

mr4tink said: “This is pretty much how most people implement the rule in Czech Republic for mandatory masks in public - anything that covers you mount and nose is fine, including self made cloth masks and even scarves. The government even said they are find with that at multiple occasions. So "I don't have a mask" is really no argument, as long as you have at least one piece of clothing on you, you can wrap it around your mount & nose. There, you have a mask.”

 

A thread on aerosols (limited info I admit): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22665858


 
 
 
 


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  #2448479 27-Mar-2020 22:25
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I'm happy to say that I found myself as a small part of "aerial logistics worldwide" right now. Even our flight test A/Cs are transporting badly needed masks from China to Europe. :-)





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Master Geek


  #2448480 27-Mar-2020 22:28
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Paul1977:

 

Are supermarket workers getting hazard pay? I'd imagine their normal pay probably isn't that great (I'd assume minimum wage for many of them?), I wouldn't want to be in there at minimum wage at the moment. 

 

 

How about all front-line workers get to queue jump for intensive care, should they need it? A platinum level of care for anyone risking their lives with high contact jobs...


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  #2448481 27-Mar-2020 22:33
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You may find this article from The Spectator interesting. It is by a retired Professor of Pathology and is titled "How deadly is the coronavirus? It’s still far from clear."

 

 

 

It's quite long but well worth a read; not surprisingly he comes across as well informed and intelligent. Here's the final part:

 

 

 

"The moral debate is not lives vs money. It is lives vs lives. It will take months, perhaps years, if ever, before we can assess the wider implications of what we are doing. The damage to children’s education, the excess suicides, the increase in mental health problems, the taking away of resources from other health problems that we were dealing with effectively. Those who need medical help now but won’t seek it, or might not be offered it. And what about the effects on food production and global commerce, that will have unquantifiable consequences for people of all ages, perhaps especially in developing economies?

 

Governments everywhere say they are responding to the science. The policies in the UK are not the government’s fault. They are trying to act responsibly based on the scientific advice given. But governments must remember that rushed science is almost always bad science. We have decided on policies of extraordinary magnitude without concrete evidence of excess harm already occurring, and without proper scrutiny of the science used to justify them.

 

In the next few days and weeks, we must continue to look critically and dispassionately at the Covid-19 evidence as it comes in. Above all else, we must keep an open mind — and look for what is, not for what we fear might be."






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  #2448485 27-Mar-2020 22:44
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Here is another point in the same vein from The Times

 

 

 

"One alarmed senior executive said this week: “Millions die every year from varying causes. Are we to stop the world for everything? If we carry on like this, society will stop functioning and then what do we gain?”

 

Ah, say the optimists, but this is simply a pause, a temporary halt for a few months to destroy the largest health threat to our people in half a century, and then we can resume normal service.

 

There are two problems with this: first, very few people really think the public health crisis will be over in three months. The evidence from China, Hong Kong, Singapore and elsewhere is that once the suppression measures in place have begun to be lifted the virus is returning at scale.

 

The second problem is that economies don’t work like this. They can’t just be switched on and off, like a boiler. The stalling of activity wastes vital muscle that won’t just return to full functionality after a quarter or two. By a process economists call hysteresis, a downturn begets deeper economic woe. Laid-off workers lose the skills needed to do jobs. Short-term memories foster a lack of confidence and stay consumers’ spending. Businesses are reluctant to take on workers again in the early part of a recovery."






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Master Geek


  #2448487 27-Mar-2020 23:00
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Geektastic:

 

You may find this article from The Spectator interesting. It is by a retired Professor of Pathology and is titled "How deadly is the coronavirus? It’s still far from clear."

 

 

 

”That puts the Covid-19 mortality rate in the range associated with infections like flu.”

 

The death rate in Italy is well above normal flu rates, something like 10x or 20x as deadly. E.g. a total of 68 000 deaths were attributable to flu epidemics in the winter months between 2013 and 2017 for the whole of Italy. Yet 8000 deaths directly or indirectly due to Covid from a small percentage of population that have caught virus.

 

 

“But there’s another, potentially even more serious problem: the way that deaths are recorded.”

 

Again, look at the data from Italy. They record deaths differently from many countries: if someone catches the flu or Covid and dies, it is recorded as a death due to flu or Covid. Other countries tend to put it down to the morbidities. That might inflate the numbers a little (but not enough to make the spectator article make sense).

 

That article seems misleading to me: using some facts but strangely out of touch.


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Master Geek


  #2448494 27-Mar-2020 23:10
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Geektastic:

 

The second problem is that economies don’t work like this. They can’t just be switched on and off, like a boiler. The stalling of activity wastes vital muscle that won’t just return to full functionality after a quarter or two. By a process economists call hysteresis, a downturn begets deeper economic woe. Laid-off workers lose the skills needed to do jobs. Short-term memories foster a lack of confidence and stay consumers’ spending. Businesses are reluctant to take on workers again in the early part of a recovery."

 

 

Sure. The estimate I have recently seen is that catching Covid reduces your life by an average of one year (younger deaths will shift that needle as they lose a lot of years versus older deaths). That gives a baseline for deciding on the economic cost versus the human cost.

 

One economic reality is that we all are given about the same number of years, it is one if the things that is most equal between people in a first world economy. Taking one of those away, for zero gain, is a massive cost.

 

It allows some sense to be made of economic choices of shutdown that reduce lifetime (e.g. stress, lack of resources for healthcare) versus benefits.


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  #2448509 28-Mar-2020 00:30
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Boris Johnson has COVID19. Must be time for a trans-atlantic summit...

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  #2448516 28-Mar-2020 01:24
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Geektastic: 

 

Here is another point in the same vein from The Times

 

...  The evidence from China, Hong Kong, Singapore and elsewhere is that once the suppression measures in place have begun to be lifted the virus is returning at scale.

 

...

 

 

 

I haven't read The Observer article yet but the above sentence from The Times seems to have been plucked out of thin air.  What evidence?

 

     

  1. Neither China nor Singapore have seen "the virus returning at scale".  China has had no (or virtually no) local cases for 4 - 5 days and the total new cases have been a tiny fraction of what they were at peak.  The growth in cases in Singapore has been slightly higher over the last ~9 days but is still in line with other Asian countries such as Japan & Taiwan, and far lower than growth rates in Europe & the US.
  2. I am not aware of any "suppression measures in place [that] have begun to be lifted" in either Hong Kong or Singapore.  Restrictions have been slowly tightened over the last few days to week or so.  Hong Kong (& Taiwan) have seen a spike in numbers over the last week but from prior very low rates of growth, with the current growth fully in line with Japan & Singapore.  Much of the spike in Hong Kong is tied to overseas travel, and presumably due to the rapidly worsening situation in the West.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/mar/26/tokyo-governor-tells-residents-to-stay-home-to-avoid-coronavirus-explosion


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