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  #2449259 29-Mar-2020 10:18
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MikeB4:

 

Don't let the actions or inaction of the government affect how you see the people and descend into xenophobia

 

 

This is funny coming from you - you often defend the utterly ridiculous and selfish choices of voters on the ground of “That’s democracy!”, i.e. the people legitimately chose it under their system. If that is true, why can’t people choose to judge the choices made by Australians in choosing their government? This especially when such government’s policy in this instance cannot be rationally justified (i.e. refusing to provide any support to NZers who are otherwise required to pay the same taxes etc). It’s being rammed through via nothing than a tyranny of the majority. That is immoral and unfair. 

 

Sometimes people just need to get away from nice-sounding one-liners.


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  #2449260 29-Mar-2020 10:18
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tdgeek:

 

We can see CT as a % of cases. It took a good while to find one. Even though we cant test everyone, doctors send people home as does MoH, that must severely cut down unknown spread. CT is like cases, the cases we have are what we tested, there are others, and they will have been sent home for 14 days. Now, its getting bigger, and while we can and do contact trace a huge number of people, its harder, so we go to lockdown. 

 

If we tested random asymptomatic cases its a negative result, so we let them go. So IMO that random test would not change the problem.

 

The argument is could we have locked down Jan 26? We could have, but we aren't mind readers. We could also have locked out Kiwis and travellers very early on, cant really do that for Kiwis and residents , so we had to grin and bear letting SO MANY in every day, and thats where the tests were focussed. As that is the source. 

 

 

The point of random testing would not be to find asymptomatic negatives, but rather asymptomatic positives. 

 

I don't think we're going to agree on this, and we don't have to because neither if us gets any input into the Governments strategy anyway!


 
 
 
 


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  #2449262 29-Mar-2020 10:19
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Tdgeek: In maybe two years time all these unknown will be known for the next outbreak, but right now, no one knows.

That's overly pessimistic. We have the head of the Chinese CDC saying what we should be doing. And we aren't doing this.

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  #2449263 29-Mar-2020 10:20
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Paul1977:

 

 

 

I hope I'm wrong, but I think your assessment is overly optimistic.

 

Without randomised testing how can we we know we don't have intensive transmission and/or numerically widespread outbreaks? I thought it was pretty widely accepted that the vast majority of cases had only mild (or even no) symptoms?

 

And NZers aren't good at doing what they're told. I think we probably have a lot of pretty leaky bubbles out there. 

 

 

Lets say that we random test. And that we have more CT and more cases then are counted (which is correct) Before the lockdown we has about 200 cases and 4 CT? Out of 5 million. Lets say those numbers are in fact double. 500 and 8. If we random test a huge number, we may conclude that we in fact have 500 and 8 and not 200 cases and 4 CT. And the ones we find are at hime due ti Doctors orders or MoH orders, as they had symptoms.I dont see any value in that. The idea I feel is that we are tracking trends not actuals. We can test 5 million so we test only at the source, and latterly in the community. We get to point where we cant test everyone bit th trend shows we need to act, so we did. Thats how I see it. Air random tests would also by definition, just show a trend. MoH has decided the trend is too much so we are in lockdown. The only source is travellers, so they focussed there, nab them at the border so to speak.


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  #2449264 29-Mar-2020 10:21
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Paul1977:

 

 

 

I have no professional training, qualifications, or experience in this field that would give any weight to my opinions.

 

 

Me neither, thats why they are just options, based on what experts advise. There is no one that knows all there is to now about this virus. No one.


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  #2449266 29-Mar-2020 10:25
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tdgeek: There is no one that knows all there is to now about this virus. No one.



Don't equate the ignorance of some with the knowledge of the people who have controlled this disease successfully.

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  #2449268 29-Mar-2020 10:27
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Interesting article about Hong Kong "waves of lockdown" - why they relaxed at first and then had to reinforce it again.

 

 

Hong Kong and Singapore were early examples of places that were able to contain the spread of the virus, which causes the disease COVID-19, offering a model of sorts for countries elsewhere to follow (even if most did not take the cue). Yet now, this city is a different kind of model, a glimpse into what awaits the hundreds of millions of people living under restrictions in places such as Britain, France, Italy, and parts of the United States, wondering what life will look like once the virus is brought under control. The tightening and easing, as well as tweaking, of restrictions under way in Hong Kong, an effort to control the ebb and flow of the disease into manageable waves without letting it run rampant, illustrates how one protracted lockdown is unlikely to be sufficient as researchers take part in a global race to create a vaccine for the virus.

 

“The suppression-and-lift strategy is the most talked about amongst my ilk and in governments all over the world,” said Leung, who is also the dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong. “You would need to keep on these control measures to varying degrees until one of two things happen: One, is there is natural immunity by active infection and recovery, or there is sufficiently wide availability of an effective vaccine administered to at least half the population, to create the same effective herd immunity. These are the only two ways of going about it.” Leung added that we’ll go through “several cycles” of tightenings and easings “before we will have resolution.”

 





 

 

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  #2449272 29-Mar-2020 10:31
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tdgeek:

 

Lets say that we random test. And that we have more CT and more cases then are counted (which is correct) Before the lockdown we has about 200 cases and 4 CT? Out of 5 million. Lets say those numbers are in fact double. 500 and 8. If we random test a huge number, we may conclude that we in fact have 500 and 8 and not 200 cases and 4 CT. And the ones we find are at hime due ti Doctors orders or MoH orders, as they had symptoms.I dont see any value in that. The idea I feel is that we are tracking trends not actuals. We can test 5 million so we test only at the source, and latterly in the community. We get to point where we cant test everyone bit th trend shows we need to act, so we did. Thats how I see it. Air random tests would also by definition, just show a trend. MoH has decided the trend is too much so we are in lockdown. The only source is travellers, so they focussed there, nab them at the border so to speak.

 

 

I absolutely understand what you're saying, I just don't agree :)

 

I believe CT probably already outnumbers cases that can be directly linked to travel. They are just not showing up yet because they were exposed later and they aren't being tested (because of a lack of symptoms yet, and haven't been flagged through contact tracing).

 

I'd rather you were right and me wrong, but we won't know for a little while. 


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  #2449273 29-Mar-2020 10:32
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Paul1977:

 

 

 

The point of random testing would not be to find asymptomatic negatives, but rather asymptomatic positives. 

 

I don't think we're going to agree on this, and we don't have to because neither if us gets any input into the Governments strategy anyway!

 

 

True! 

 

I dont think you can get non symptomatic positives?


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  #2449274 29-Mar-2020 10:34
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gchiu:

Don't equate the ignorance of some with the knowledge of the people who have controlled this disease successfully.

 

The number of potshots that you are taking at our officials who are undoubtedly in good faith trying to do their best is both unbecoming and irritating. And I noticed that when you were called out on an alleged falsehood about Ashley Bloomfield, you didn’t respond. For someone who earlier in the thread said that an NHS pathologist’s opinion on this virus is barely worth a damn unless he’s an immunologist, it’s hard to rationalise why “merely” being a doctor entitles you to constantly dig at our officials.

 

My wife is a doctor right on the frontlines and at high risk of exposure. She has her own unhappiness with the system too (as do practically all other medical professionals). But your level of carping is, to be frank, absolutely unique amongst her and her colleagues and she has been a silent follower of this thread.

 

If you are such an expert, be all means go and contact the media and powers that be to make your case. Carping here isn’t doing much for public health. 


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  #2449276 29-Mar-2020 10:37
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gchiu: Tdgeek: In maybe two years time all these unknown will be known for the next outbreak, but right now, no one knows.

That's overly pessimistic. We have the head of the Chinese CDC saying what we should be doing. And we aren't doing this.

 

The context I wrote that was that there are many unknowns about this virus. Not what we should or shouldn't be doing. 

 

Out of interest what does the Chinese CDC say we should be doing right now? Aside from a guard at every house, Im not sure what more we can do

 

 


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  #2449277 29-Mar-2020 10:38
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gchiu:
tdgeek: There is no one that knows all there is to now about this virus. No one.


Don't equate the ignorance of some with the knowledge of the people who have controlled this disease successfully.

 

Its not under control yet.


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  #2449279 29-Mar-2020 10:41
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Meanwhile, in America, Trumpers and far-right wingnuts are running a campaign of disinformation targeting Dr Fauci.

 

 

On Twitter and Facebook, a post that falsely claimed he was part of a secret cabal who opposed Mr. Trump was soon shared thousands of times, reaching roughly 1.5 million people.

 

A week later, Dr. Fauci — the administration’s most outspoken advocate of emergency measures to fight the coronavirus outbreak — has become the target of an online conspiracy theory that he is mobilizing to undermine the president.

 

The torrent of falsehoods aimed at discrediting Dr. Fauci is another example of the hyperpartisan information flow that has driven a wedge into the way Americans think. For the past few years, far-right supporters of President Trump have regularly vilified those whom they see as opposing him. Even so, the campaign against Dr. Fauci stands out because he is one of the world’s leading infectious disease experts and a member of Mr. Trump’s virus task force, and it is unfolding as the government battles a pathogen that is rapidly spreading in the United States.

 





 

 

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  #2449280 29-Mar-2020 10:42
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Look, honestly? I'm starting to think the shutdown should have coincided with a generous four/six week UBI. You get caught out and about when you shouldn't be? You lose your UBI for that week. 

 

A lot of work to get set up with almost no notice. But almost certainly needs to be the go-to if/when we get locked down again.

 

If such a system was in place, I'd also be OK with employers suspending wage payments - but only if the state was underwriting 80% min. of pre-lockdown income (up to a certain amount a week) and relevant rent-freezes/auto-extensions of fixed mortgages upon request were in place first.  

 

We don't have a framework for putting the whole economy into hibernation and it turns out we urgently need one. 


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  #2449285 29-Mar-2020 10:49
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By the way, folks if you see someone breaking the lockdown and not an essential worker, don't call 111 - leave that for emergencies. You can use 105 or email nhccselfisolation@health.govt.nz.





 

 

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