2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2451507 31-Mar-2020 13:45

dejadeadnz:

As deplorable as the conduct is, that's just not going to stick.

Boy and two men arrested after coronavirus-related assaults

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/28/manchester-two-men-arrested-after-spitting-and-coughing-at-police

Overseas I have heard of people licking door handles and other things people touch. IMO this should be treated very seriously

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debo

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#2451508 31-Mar-2020 13:46

are there any transcripts of the official briefings available?

neb

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#2451509 31-Mar-2020 13:48

Rikkitic:
My nearest supermarket is about 25 km away. Not that I am allowed out anyway.

Yeah, those ASBO's can be a pain :-).

dejadeadnz

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#2451511 31-Mar-2020 13:57

iamaelephant:

Stop flushing your damn wet-wipes you animals.

That kind of extremist rhetoric isn't helpful. The behaviour is dumb and the authorities have rightly asked people to stop. There's no need for the "animals" description.

mattwnz

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#2451515 31-Mar-2020 14:02

Geektastic:

Is collecting your post essential? We have to drive to our PO Box and I cannot actually find anything that defines that.

They may have a problem if your box fills up, as to what then happens to your mail. Mine is on the wall outside the supermarket so I can easily collect mine on my walk.

Ge0rge

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#2451518 31-Mar-2020 14:06

Have any of the "probable" cases been found negative? If so, are they then removed from the tally?

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#2451526 31-Mar-2020 14:16

Geektastic:

Is collecting your post essential? We have to drive to our PO Box and I cannot actually find anything that defines that.

I'm treating it as an acceptable trip, because otherwise I wouldn't be able to pay people who send invoices by snail mail (a small proportion). Also well before a month the box would fill up and be a nuisance for NZ Post who are an essential service. It would be odd if filling up my PO Box was essential, but emptying it was prohibited!

The box lobby entrance is locked and you need to use the PIN pad for entry. This reduces the chance of their being too many people in the box lobby.

I bike to mine, it's about 4km each way so walkable but a return trip would be more than an hour (and therefore outside the guidelines) instead of 20 minutes.
I am only going once or twice a week instead of daily, though

mattwnz

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#2451528 31-Mar-2020 14:26

Ge0rge: Have any of the "probable" cases been found negative? If so, are they then removed from the tally?

Although I can't see why they wouldn't be removed. But remember that there are cases of people who have arrived in NZ, they likely had the illness after they arrived back, but weren't tested, but a family member has then got the illness and was tested. In those cases I don't believe the original traveler who at that time had recovered, was included in the tally. IMO the tally is more about showing the trend, rather than being 100% accurate in terms of numbers in NZ who have been tested positive. But even these numbers are 1-2 weeks behind the real numbers of who is infected.

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#2451574 31-Mar-2020 14:38

The real challenge for NZ is going to be keeping the message up.

Looking at realistic modelling we'll probably drop down to single digit cases by Sunday or Monday (assuming there are no significant increases in testing capacity or test numbers which will show asymptomatic cases), simply because logarithmic increases simply can't occur any longer. Maintaining L4 and the message is going to be tough.

Fred99

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#2451575 31-Mar-2020 14:39

mattwnz:

Ge0rge: Have any of the "probable" cases been found negative? If so, are they then removed from the tally?

Although I can't see why they wouldn't be removed. But remember that there are cases of people who have arrived in NZ, they likely had the illness after they arrived back, but weren't tested, but a family member has then got the illness and was tested. In those cases I don't believe the original traveler who at that time had recovered, was included in the tally. IMO the tally is more about showing the trend, rather than being 100% accurate in terms of numbers in NZ who have been tested positive. But even these numbers are 1-2 weeks behind the real numbers of who is infected.

They should be able to test to find out - some of those "probable" cases are quite a few weeks old now. There are serology test kits available overseas that are pretty accurate, quick tests (only a few minutes from a finger prick blood sample). Those test kits are not useful for detecting if person has just acquired the infection - it takes a few days or a week for antibodies to be at a detectable level - so they're not really useful for screening - as people in the early stage of infection may test negative - even when they're shedding virus. And they won't tell if a person is or isn't infectious, as they'll test positive after a patient who had Covid-19 has recovered.

neb

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#2451579 31-Mar-2020 14:46

sbiddle:
The real challenge for NZ is going to be keeping the message up.

One thing that would help is in how the message is communicated (see my earlier post about the recommendation from the 2007 paper on effectively communicating the safety message). To take an example from a few pages back, telling people "don't toss a frisbee around" seems excessive, but saying "don't toss a frisbee around because if you injure yourself e.g. leaping to catch it and snap your ankle on landing you'll contaminate everyone who rushes to help, and the EMTs. Either that or you'll lie there in agony when no-one wants to go near you" gets the message across in a manner that people can understand.

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#2451580 31-Mar-2020 14:49

neb:
sbiddle:

The real challenge for NZ is going to be keeping the message up.

One thing that would help is in how the message is communicated (see my earlier post about the recommendation from the 2007 paper on effectively communicating the safety message). To take an example from a few pages back, telling people "don't toss a frisbee around" seems excessive, but saying "don't toss a frisbee around because if you injure yourself e.g. leaping to catch it and snap your ankle on landing you'll contaminate everyone who rushes to help, and the EMTs. Either that or you'll lie there in agony when no-one wants to go near you" gets the message across in a manner that people can understand.

The message is the main problem - and at least part of the that problem (the Police Minister) won't be fronting any media today so at least we're going to have a day without him actually being a significant contributor to the problem of communication and staying on track.

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#2451582 31-Mar-2020 14:52

Fred99:

They should be able to test to find out - some of those "probable" cases are quite a few weeks old now. There are serology test kits available overseas that are pretty accurate, quick tests (only a few minutes from a finger prick blood sample). Those test kits are not useful for detecting if person has just acquired the infection - it takes a few days or a week for antibodies to be at a detectable level - so they're not really useful for screening - as people in the early stage of infection may test negative - even when they're shedding virus. And they won't tell if a person is or isn't infectious, as they'll test positive after a patient who had Covid-19 has recovered.

That's what the UK are doing. They ordered millions of serology tests and were testing and validating them this week before an expected large scale release next week if they are accurate.

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#2451583 31-Mar-2020 14:54

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120696660/live-simon-bridges-grills-ashley-bloomfield-on-coronavirus-response

from 43 mins

Epidemiologist says NZ were not testing enough, still not testing enough, and doesn't seem to have a plan. Followed by Health Minister/DG response.

From the feed: he wants the govt test as many people as possible to get an idea of who has the virus so that we don't get any surprises when the level 4 is lifted, that the current testing criteria seems to be only testing those with a travel history or a contact with a known case. He doesn't think self isolation is good enough, suggested mandatory quarantine. Some mention about don't just look at modelling better just get out there and do stuff - get epidemiologists to help out.

dejadeadnz

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#2451584 31-Mar-2020 14:54

sbiddle:

The message is the main problem - and at least part of the that problem (the Police Minister) won't be fronting any media today so at least we're going to have a day without him actually being a significant contributor to the problem of communication and staying on track.

The Police Minister hasn't been at the press conferences, in case you haven't noticed. It's the (outgoing) Police Commissioner.

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