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neb

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  #2451615 31-Mar-2020 15:47
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Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections, New Data Suggest. Data from a company that makes Internet-connect thermometers and is using it to track fever levels, as a proxy for being able to test everyone everywhere.

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  #2451617 31-Mar-2020 15:50
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sbiddle:

 

Fred99:

 

They should be able to test to find out - some of those "probable" cases are quite a few weeks old now.  There are serology test kits available overseas that are pretty accurate, quick tests (only a few minutes from a finger prick blood sample). Those test kits are not useful for detecting if person has just acquired the infection - it takes a few days or a week for antibodies to be at a detectable level - so they're not really useful for screening - as people in the early stage of infection may test negative - even when they're shedding virus.  And they won't tell if a person is or isn't infectious, as they'll test positive after a patient who had Covid-19 has recovered.

 

 

That's what the UK are doing. They ordered millions of serology tests and were testing and validating them this week before an expected large scale release next week if they are accurate.

 

 

Yes - the idea being that once antibody positive then you're assumed to be immune, thus able to get back to work.
It's not quite as fantastic as it sounds, confirmed infected in the UK is only 0.04% of the population - so at this stage of the epidemic it's not going to have much impact - even if multiples of that 0.04% number turn out to be the true case numbers.

 

Later on - maybe. No point keeping people self-isolated if they're not a risk to themselves or anybody else, but I can see big difficulties with enforcing it - how are you going to prove you tested positive if you DIY at home - and the test doesn't exclude the possibility of being abused - ie if you want to go for a beer at the Survivor's Arms or to a party etc..  Probably need two positive tests a month apart as evidence that you'd been infected and recovered and some kind of system in place to certify results.


 
 
 
 


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  #2451618 31-Mar-2020 15:52
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tdgeek:

 

How?

 

We can cease all flights that's easy

 

We cannot lock up every house in NZ, so how do we stop the "trust" bit? I know you are referring to incoming travellers but there are 5 million of us here who are not travellers and some of us are laughing at the virus every hour. That is the problem that cannot be solved, no matter what. Human populations are x% dumbarses, we can't stop that. In fact many law abiding Kiwi's are not playing ball. The lockdown is the best we have to smother the virus, then tackle local small outbreaks

 

If you can cease ALL flights, lock us all up in our fenceline for 3 weeks, nothing open (we are locked in anyway)  it will be gone. But that's not doable. We have the next best option, with no choice but to accept the leaks and manage them as best we can

 

 

That is why it is now so difficult. We did have control over people entering the country, to then quarantine them. It is a bit like closing the barn door after the horses have already bolted. But IMO quarantining all incoming travelers now is still better late then never. This is because the  odds of incoming travelers now having this virus is significantly higher than it was a month ago, so IMO all incoming travelers should be treated like they already have the virus, much like the PM advised us that we should all act like we have the virus.. I believe they are testing people at airports if they have a temperature, but only quarantining those people who show symptoms or don't have a self isolation plan, but that isn't as strict as what Australia appear to be  doing, which is quarantining everyone coming in. This virus is also alleged to be spread by people who don't show symptoms, which is one reason this is such a dangerous virus https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-questions-answers/ 

 

The police are for those % of people who don't follow the rules. They should take a hard line at some point, and make some examples. The issue is that they are likely to be challenging people who are out, who aren't the ones who are the problem. I have reported someone for moving into a new house during the lockdown, but those people are still moving stuff today. I don't believe people are permitted to move house during lockdown. So either the police have given them permission to do this, or they haven't yet followed them up, but I understand they have had over 4000 reports on the first day. I also think they need to list the rules people need to be follwing on TV. eg You must not leave your house unless... 

 

Also if you are over 70 you must not go to te supermarket. My parents are over 70, and they are law a bidding, and have worked in the medical field. But they didn't realize until I told them today, that they weren't allowed to go to the supermarket at all. They just thought it was not recommended, and they don't have any underlying health conditions. But that restriction is for everyone for over 70. So there is a lot of confusion over what is allowed and not allowed. Using the wording 'You must not' instead of the word 'avoid', also provides more definite clarification IMO

 

IMO they should also be temperature testing anyone who goes into the supermarket with a scanner, which is easy to do. In China it appears they are now doing this as they return to some state of normality. 


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  #2451619 31-Mar-2020 15:55
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dejadeadnz:

 

if you aren't obviously taking the mickey, you won't run into significant issues.

 

 

I'm not sure that's true.  A colleague of mine (an essential worker) was stopped, on the way to work.  He had a printed, signed letter from company explaining he was an essential worker as is required.  Company ID and drivers licence.  Cop not interested in any of that, wouldn't let him finish a sentence, rudely and aggressively ordered him home, no ifs buts or maybes.

 

But there is karma.  There is a police boat sitting in bits at a dry dock, as routine maintenance was being undertaken, when lockdown started.  Police are jumping up and down to get it back on the water.  Business is non-essential and owner has no desire to take the risk, so the police will have to wait until lockdown is over to get their boat back.  





Mike

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  #2451620 31-Mar-2020 15:57
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Q&A recording with Dr Siouxsie Wiles. Skip to the 11-minute mark for the start.





 

 

These links are referral codes

 

Geekzone broadband switch | Eletricity comparison and switch | Hatch investment (NZ$ 10 bonus if NZ$100 deposited within 30 days) | Sharesies | Mighty Ape | Backblaze | Amazon | My technology disclosure 


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  #2451621 31-Mar-2020 15:59
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tdgeek:

 

Its not about the virus risk. Its about you getting into strife and causing the authorities or public to break their bubble in rescuing you, and potentually using a hospital bed that could be for a virus victim if it got out of hand. Say you are infected, 6 people rush over to rescue you, you affect them, so now 6 bubbles are infected.

 

 

Surfers are less likely to need help than people out taking their permissible walk.  They get into trouble so rarely.  But, rules is rules.





Mike

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  #2451626 31-Mar-2020 16:09
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neb: Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections, New Data Suggest. Data from a company that makes Internet-connect thermometers and is using it to track fever levels, as a proxy for being able to test everyone everywhere.

 

I looked at the company website - and there's no data (that I could find) to show whether there'd been a large increase in people taking their temperature.  I'd expect that there almost certainly would have been, and that alone may explain the observed decline in % of tests indicating fever.

 

Covid-19 confirmed case data and death are still growing exponentially. 

 

I think that article is probably mainly wishful thinking.


 
 
 
 


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  #2451627 31-Mar-2020 16:10
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sbiddle:

 

He's given press conferences on multiple occasions just after the PM has spoken.

 

And as dfor him being outgoing I don't see what relevance this has - he's still the Police minister. Last week a number of media kept reporting him as the "outgoing Police minister" in their articles, but I notice this week that a couple that were doing that have now removed the word "outgoing"

 

 

You don't seem to get the point, do you? What I am calling out is that in light of your failure to correctly identify who the speaker is, it's difficult to see why anyone should take your mere assertion that he's adding to the confusion seriously. And he's the outgoing Police Commissioner. The next one has been appointed.

 

Edit: To make it simpler for you - there's a difference between the Police Minister and the Police Commissioner. The former is a politician and a member of the cabinet; the latter is the head of the police. Facts matter in debates, especially if you expect to be taken seriously when making a strong allegation that someone has been adding to the confusion.

 

 


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  #2451629 31-Mar-2020 16:18
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mattwnz:

 

freitasm:

 

who is the epidemiologist?

 

 

Epidemiologist is Sir David Skegg

 

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/sir-david-skegg-lockdown-may-not-be-enough-to-flatten-the-coronavirus-curve/

 

 

 

Does anyone have a link to a reply of that online Zoom video feed?. I watched only watched about the last half. I pretty much agreed with all he said. We should be working to eliminate this, rather than just flatten the curve. He said we should be working at dead lining the curve.Other countries are trying to flatten the curve which is really about trying to manage the cases over a long period of time, but NZ is in the position where we can eliminate it. If we eliminate it, we can get the economy working again properly.

 

Also IMO we need to quarantine everyone entering NZ, like Australia are now doing. We can't gamble the entire economy on 'trust', that people will do 'self isolation' properly, and IMO these people need to be isolated from any bubble, they need to be in their own isolated bubble.This should now be manageable IMO due to the smaller volumes of people coming back. The PM has said by and large their is compliance with self isolation, but IMO we can't afford for a single person not to follow the requirements. 

 

The PM has also today said that they need to test more people, to get a better picture of what is happening, and more information is needed on the spread.  She has said they need to Test Test Test twice,  which is what I have been saying for weeks here. 

 

 

Realistically, can we deaden the curve? Won't the disease re-infiltrate at some stage from somewhere and off we go again ... until there is either herd immunity from exposure or (potentially) vaccination.





Mike

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  #2451630 31-Mar-2020 16:20
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dejadeadnz:

 

And he's the outgoing Police Commissioner. The next one has been appointed.

 

 

Yep. Andrew Coster takes over on this Friday 3.April

 

Mike Bush confirmed on the update yesterday that he's definitely going.


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  #2451632 31-Mar-2020 16:25
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mattwnz:

 

That is why it is now so difficult. We did have control over people entering the country, to then quarantine them. It is a bit like closing the barn door after the horses have already bolted. But IMO quarantining all incoming travelers now is still better late then never. This is because the  odds of incoming travelers now having this virus is significantly higher than it was a month ago, so IMO all incoming travelers should be treated like they already have the virus, much like the PM advised us that we should all act like we have the virus.. I believe they are testing people at airports if they have a temperature, but only quarantining those people who show symptoms or don't have a self isolation plan, but that isn't as strict as what Australia appear to be  doing, which is quarantining everyone coming in. This virus is also alleged to be spread by people who don't show symptoms, which is one reason this is such a dangerous virus https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-questions-answers/ 

 

The police are for those % of people who don't follow the rules. They should take a hard line at some point, and make some examples. The issue is that they are likely to be challenging people who are out, who aren't the ones who are the problem. I have reported someone for moving into a new house during the lockdown, but those people are still moving stuff today. I don't believe people are permitted to move house during lockdown. So either the police have given them permission to do this, or they haven't yet followed them up, but I understand they have had over 4000 reports on the first day. I also think they need to list the rules people need to be follwing on TV. eg You must not leave your house unless... 

 

Also if you are over 70 you must not go to te supermarket. My parents are over 70, and they are law a bidding, and have worked in the medical field. But they didn't realize until I told them today, that they weren't allowed to go to the supermarket at all. They just thought it was not recommended, and they don't have any underlying health conditions. But that restriction is for everyone for over 70. So there is a lot of confusion over what is allowed and not allowed. Using the wording 'You must not' instead of the word 'avoid', also provides more definite clarification IMO

 

IMO they should also be temperature testing anyone who goes into the supermarket with a scanner, which is easy to do. In China it appears they are now doing this as they return to some state of normality. 

 

 

If its so difficult now, are you saying we should have forced quarantined all travellers? And Kiwis? Until recentky the arrivals were huge. I was counting 60 flights a day, that's just Auckland. Now that we have spare hotels everywhere there are hardly any coming in, so they aren't the problem now. All we could have done is blocked foreigners way back in January. Back then, the only issue was blocking people from China. Now, the issue is us. We cannot stop MANY people flouting the rules. Its not possible.

 

Unless we shut our airports way back, I dont see how we could have done any different. The criticism now is that we use a trust system. We don't have enough Police to guard our front gates, so we dont have a choice apart from the trust system. 


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  #2451634 31-Mar-2020 16:29
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MikeAqua:

 

Realistically, can we deaden the curve? Won't the disease re-infiltrate at some stage from somewhere and off we go again ... until there is either herd immunity from exposure or (potentially) vaccination.

 

 

Yes.  Hopefully by then (post peak / near elimination) there'll be better testing, possible truly effective treatments etc.

 

 


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  #2451635 31-Mar-2020 16:29
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dejadeadnz:

 

sbiddle:

 

He's given press conferences on multiple occasions just after the PM has spoken.

 

And as dfor him being outgoing I don't see what relevance this has - he's still the Police minister. Last week a number of media kept reporting him as the "outgoing Police minister" in their articles, but I notice this week that a couple that were doing that have now removed the word "outgoing"

 

 

You don't seem to get the point, do you? What I am calling out is that in light of your failure to correctly identify who the speaker is, it's difficult to see why anyone should take your mere assertion that he's adding to the confusion seriously. And he's the outgoing Police Commissioner. The next one has been appointed.

 

Edit: To make it simpler for you - there's a difference between the Police Minister and the Police Commissioner. The former is a politician and a member of the cabinet; the latter is the head of the police. Facts matter in debates, especially if you expect to be taken seriously when making a strong allegation that someone has been adding to the confusion.

 

 

 

 

My bad. In this case I meant Commissioner, not Minister.

 

 


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  #2451652 31-Mar-2020 16:34
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MikeAqua:

 

Realistically, can we deaden the curve? Won't the disease re-infiltrate at some stage from somewhere and off we go again ... until there is either herd immunity from exposure or (potentially) vaccination.

 

 

Now that we are locked down, the virus theoretically has nowhere to go. Its limited to slight risk at supermarket, the common risk of flouters, and the new risk of supermarkets open on Easter Sunday, dumbest idea ever. If every person who is or gets infected contacted MoH, who then contact trace, that will be huge. But we need to wait till everyone since Level 4 started who is infected, but asmymptomatic, gets symptoms, then they contact Healthline and also get contact traced. THEN you release Level 4. You then are left with isolated cases from flouters, and inadvertent misc transmissions, mainly surface infected. Might take a while, but we dont want Level 4 every second month for two years either.

 

Herd immunity isn't known and from what Ive read is largely in doubt.

 

The problem is you cannot control 5 million people. And we see that now. Intentional flouters to law abiding people deciding what suits them best. 


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  #2451653 31-Mar-2020 16:36
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Fred99:

 

MikeAqua:

 

Realistically, can we deaden the curve? Won't the disease re-infiltrate at some stage from somewhere and off we go again ... until there is either herd immunity from exposure or (potentially) vaccination.

 

 

Yes.  Hopefully by then (post peak / near elimination) there'll be better testing, possible truly effective treatments etc.

 

 

 

 

Timeline? I can see that if we use Level 4 on and off, and after a few times, the numbers are manageable enough to test everyone in any area of local outbreak.


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