2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2451662 31-Mar-2020 16:41

tdgeek:

@Batman can you please stop this? "Health Minister responds with we're going awesome we've got this." He did not say that.

That is just so Trump Kindergarten speak and as tdgeek stated please stop.

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MikeAqua

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#2451663 31-Mar-2020 16:41

tdgeek:

MikeAqua:

Realistically, can we deaden the curve? Won't the disease re-infiltrate at some stage from somewhere and off we go again ... until there is either herd immunity from exposure or (potentially) vaccination.

Now that we are locked down, the virus theoretically has nowhere to go. Its limited to slight risk at supermarket, the common risk of flouters, and the new risk of supermarkets open on Easter Sunday, dumbest idea ever. If every person who is or gets infected contacted MoH, who then contact trace, that will be huge. But we need to wait till everyone since Level 4 started who is infected, but asmymptomatic, gets symptoms, then they contact Healthline and also get contact traced. THEN you release Level 4. You then are left with isolated cases from flouters, and inadvertent misc transmissions, mainly surface infected. Might take a while, but we dont want Level 4 every second month for two years either.

Herd immunity isn't known and from what Ive read is largely in doubt.

The problem is you cannot control 5 million people. And we see that now. Intentional flouters to law abiding people deciding what suits them best.

I think even if we do really well domestically (which I don't think we are) the virus will persist at low levels internationally and eventually we will reopen our borders and it will get back in. Depends on the level of re-incursion pressure I suppose.

Has the question of whether people can get infected more than once been answered?

Mike

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#2451664 31-Mar-2020 16:42

mattwnz:

That is why it is now so difficult. We did have control over people entering the country, to then quarantine them. It is a bit like closing the barn door after the horses have already bolted. But IMO quarantining all incoming travelers now is still better late then never. This is because the odds of incoming travelers now having this virus is significantly higher than it was a month ago, so IMO all incoming travelers should be treated like they already have the virus, much like the PM advised us that we should all act like we have the virus.. I believe they are testing people at airports if they have a temperature, but only quarantining those people who show symptoms or don't have a self isolation plan, but that isn't as strict as what Australia appear to be doing, which is quarantining everyone coming in. This virus is also alleged to be spread by people who don't show symptoms, which is one reason this is such a dangerous virus https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-questions-answers/

...

IMO they should also be temperature testing anyone who goes into the supermarket with a scanner, which is easy to do. In China it appears they are now doing this as they return to some state of normality.

You raise two very good points above.

It seems that there too much concern about non-symptomatic people 'breaking the rules' and too little concern about people that are likely spreading the virus. The points in bold above will go a long way in stopping the outbreak where as deploying resources against Frisbee throwers will achieve nothing.

sbiddle

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#2451672 31-Mar-2020 16:50

MikeAqua:

I think even if we do really well domestically (which I don't think we are) the virus will persist at low levels internationally and eventually we will reopen our borders and it will get back in. Depends on the level of re-incursion pressure I suppose.

Has the question of whether people can get infected more than once been answered?

Not definitively, no. But it's strongly assumed at present.

The decision NZ has made may well kill the virus here, but with no herd immunity like other countries will ultimately end up with (whether by accident or planning) it does mean we are going to be isolated until a vaccine exists assuming herd immunity is the real deal.

FineWine

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#2451674 31-Mar-2020 16:51

dejadeadnz:

sbiddle:

The message is the main problem - and at least part of the that problem (the Police Minister) won't be fronting any media today so at least we're going to have a day without him actually being a significant contributor to the problem of communication and staying on track.

The Police Minister hasn't been at the press conferences, in case you haven't noticed. It's the (outgoing) Police Commissioner.

That is a shame. I like his briefings. He talks to the majority in a language that can be understood with a twist of light heartedness. Hey Bro.

I have also noticed that the PM is becoming more articulate, not that she needed to. But her oratory is coming across less tense and is more fluently and persuasively eloquent.

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tdgeek

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#2451675 31-Mar-2020 16:53

MikeAqua:

I think even if we do really well domestically (which I don't think we are) the virus will persist at low levels internationally and eventually we will reopen our borders and it will get back in. Depends on the level of re-incursion pressure I suppose.

Has the question of whether people can get infected more than once been answered?

Not sure on the latter.

I personally feel we need two consecutive periods of Level 4. Due to flouters and ignorers. The virus will be smothered apart from flouter and ignorer outbreaks. I can't see the borders being open for a long time. We can bring Kiwis home, lock them in hotels for 14 days, and I mean lock. Maybe there will be a test that is thorough that will allow pre travel checking, but has to be a quick result. We need to try to invigorate the local tourist industry so that Kiwis can travel around at Kiwi prices.

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#2451676 31-Mar-2020 16:57

sbiddle:

MikeAqua:

I think even if we do really well domestically (which I don't think we are) the virus will persist at low levels internationally and eventually we will reopen our borders and it will get back in. Depends on the level of re-incursion pressure I suppose.

Has the question of whether people can get infected more than once been answered?

Not definitively, no. But it's strongly assumed at present.

The decision NZ has made may well kill the virus here, but with no herd immunity like other countries will ultimately end up with (whether by accident or planning) it does mean we are going to be isolated until a vaccine exists assuming herd immunity is the real deal.

And therein lies the problem. There is no evidence of herd immunity yet which relies on people developing resistance - but at what cost? That's what vaccines exist for.

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tdgeek

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#2451677 31-Mar-2020 16:59

sbiddle:

[The decision NZ has made may well kill the virus here, but with no herd immunity like other countries will ultimately end up with (whether by accident or planning) it does mean we are going to be isolated until a vaccine exists assuming herd immunity is the real deal.

I feel if we have a couple of Level 4's we will be well in control. Dampening hotspots more than using the fire. As for other countries, I feel they will be well alight for a long time, still alight when a vaccine arrives. We can avoid buying herd immunity with deaths, IMHO and do we know Herd Immunity is the solution and long term?

concordnz

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#2451679 31-Mar-2020 17:03

Its quite viable, that we "Stamp it out" in New Zealand,

Which allows us to all go back to work, (probably with delayed opening for resturants, playgrounds etc)

And Countries around the world implment strict quarintine rules,

e.g. 2 weeks before travelling, must be quarintined and 1 week on arrival, you are forced to go into Government controlled quarintine,

(this enables 'critical' travel - (as long as you are prepared to waste 3 weeks in quarintine)

and will significantly increase the cost of travel - probably a tax of 10k per flight to cover quarintine costs.

But it will allow the world to 'operate' while vaccines are developed, or it is 'stamped out' like Sars was

FineWine

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#2451680 31-Mar-2020 17:05

Just received from the MoH - sent out to all health care workers who responded to the 'Call Up'.

What blows me away is the figure of 6,100 people who have registered.

Way to go us Kiwi's.

Thank you from Dr. Ashley Bloomfield

Kia ora,

Thank you so much for putting yourself forward to help assist with New Zealand’s COVID-19 response.

I have been touched by the huge number of health and care workers who have signed up through our portal at this early stage.

Over 6,100 people have registered their details so far. We’ve got our first requests from employers, so now we’re starting the process of matching the right people to the right roles as a top priority.

This means that if we need people with your skills in your area, you’ll start hearing from us soon. If you don’t end up hearing from us, at this point this is a good thing, as it means that there are enough people to handle the COVID-19 response in your area.

If you know anyone else who may be able to help with the COVID-19 response, please send them this signup link so that they can register their details: https://tinyurl.com/covid19nz.

Please stay safe and look after yourselves and your whānau.

Kia kaha,

Dr Ashley Bloomfield
Director-General
Ministry of Health

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mattwnz

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#2451684 31-Mar-2020 17:16

sbiddle:

Not definitively, no. But it's strongly assumed at present.

The decision NZ has made may well kill the virus here, but with no herd immunity like other countries will ultimately end up with (whether by accident or planning) it does mean we are going to be isolated until a vaccine exists assuming herd immunity is the real deal.

I think it is a good problem to have, if we do manage to starve the virus of hosts and kill it off, and at least run a domestic economy. Other countries may have to be in lockdown for 6 months or even longer, on and off, just to flatten the curve to reduce the demand on the health system, but will end up resulting in a lot of people getting it. IMO we don't really want to have to go in and out of lockdown, and don't think people will be happy if that occurs, and we may then have to look at what Australia appears to be doing and hibernate the economy. IMO we want to go hard and go strong now , especially as we are heading into winter, so the earlier the better

Grunta47

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#2451689 31-Mar-2020 17:19

dejadeadnz:

You don't seem to get the point, do you? What I am calling out is that in light of your failure to correctly identify who the speaker is, it's difficult to see why anyone should take your mere assertion that he's adding to the confusion seriously. And he's the outgoing Police Commissioner. The next one has been appointed.

Edit: To make it simpler for you - there's a difference between the Police Minister and the Police Commissioner. The former is a politician and a member of the cabinet; the latter is the head of the police. Facts matter in debates, especially if you expect to be taken seriously when making a strong allegation that someone has been adding to the confusion.

I knew exactly who he was talking about and undoubtedly so did many people here. Pedantic point scoring is such a waste of time and effort.

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#2451692 31-Mar-2020 17:20

The United States now with 3,000 deaths, which is just about the same as France and only 300 behind China:

Italy: 11,591
Spain: 7,716
China: 3,305
France: 3,024
United States: 3,003

And that's not counting the ones they don't even test or know about.

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#2451694 31-Mar-2020 17:24

Press release:

The Government is refining its COVID-19 essential business guidance to include the distribution of news publications for communities which are hard to reach.

The Minister of Broadcasting, Communications and Digital Media, Kris Faafoi, said the move was in recognition of the importance for New Zealanders who might be harder to reach having access to news publications, which can share important up-to-date public health messaging during the COVID-19 emergency.

“We recognise there are remote parts of New Zealand with limited digital connectivity, as well as non-English language communities which rely on these outlets to keep informed, so we have expanded the COVID-19 essential business guidance to include community news publications which can meet certain criteria,” Kris Faafoi said.

The guidance has expanded to cover news publications that:

serve a need for hard to reach rural communities, with reduced connectivity,
and/or serve non-English speaking communities,
and have appropriate health and safety measures to minimise the spread of COVID-19 during production and delivery.
“We have to maintain a balance of people being able to stay connected with important information which they can trust while also ensuring New Zealanders’ health and stopping the spread of the COVID virus remain our top priorities.

“The Government asks that where community media content can be provided by other means, such as online, we ask them to focus on those modes of publication during the heightened COVID-19 Alert. But we accept that there are remote communities and non-English language communities who may not be able to access up-to-date information by other means.

“The Government recognises that these were already difficult times for traditional media across the sector, even before COVID-19 hit, and that restrictions which remain in place for other publications, such as non-daily magazines, are adding to their financial challenges.

“The Government remains committed to providing assistance through the wage subsidy and business support packages which have been rolled out in response to this global health emergency,” Kris Faafoi said.

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heapsort

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#2451695 31-Mar-2020 17:27

tdgeek:

Now that we are locked down, the virus theoretically has nowhere to go. Its limited to slight risk at supermarket, the common risk of flouters, and the new risk of supermarkets open on Easter Sunday, dumbest idea ever.

I am not sure how it is the dumbest idea ever. Actually, I am not convinced it is a dumb idea at all. It could be argued that every day of trading is a risk, but it is probably more accurate that every shopper outing is a risk and it helps to spread that over a reasonable amount of time in a seven day week. If supermarkets were to close on Good Friday and Easter Sunday, the busier trade on Thursday/Saturday/Monday may well pose an even greater risk of community transmission.

If two days of closure was to bring a significant benefit, surely we should restrict supermarkets to five days of trading per week every week of level four. Just like in our childhoods, for those of us above a certain age. Well, not quite like it: they would still be able to sell milk, something they could not do forty years ago.

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