2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2421530 15-Feb-2020 21:08

Beccara:

I wouldn't say it's nothing, It's just nothing very visible to the general public. With the direct flight ban and screening taking place in Sydney/Singapore/Dubai and more there isn't much more that we can do at the border that wouldn't increase general anxiety. Considering the crap we're seeing so far it's more than justified to take a cautious escalating approach so as to not cause more public harm

Yes, but if you are a NZ national/resident, and fly in, you are allowed. If thats via or from an infected country, including mainland China, you are asked/suggested/advised to self isolate. To me, the Government is doing nothing, we ask the citizens to do it, if they can be bothered.

Don't follow what you mean by "the crap we're seeing so far it's more than justified to take a cautious escalating approach" NZ is taking a cautious approach, at best, and even thats complimentary. We are not taking a Keep It Out approach which is our official stance. Its more like lets not upset anyone, inconvenience anyone, and cross our fingers. Now, if we got a few infected people inside our borders, and lets say for example, the self isolation infected 3 others each, so we have a dozen plus infected. Who would get the blame then?

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#2421548 15-Feb-2020 21:42

tdgeek:

Yes, but if you are a NZ national/resident, and fly in, you are allowed. If thats via or from an infected country, including mainland China, you are asked/suggested/advised to self isolate. To me, the Government is doing nothing, we ask the citizens to do it, if they can be bothered.

Don't follow what you mean by "the crap we're seeing so far it's more than justified to take a cautious escalating approach" NZ is taking a cautious approach, at best, and even thats complimentary. We are not taking a Keep It Out approach which is our official stance. Its more like lets not upset anyone, inconvenience anyone, and cross our fingers. Now, if we got a few infected people inside our borders, and lets say for example, the self isolation infected 3 others each, so we have a dozen plus infected. Who would get the blame then?

It's quite extreme to forcibly quarantine people with no previous positive result, no symptoms, and zero confirmed cases in New Zealand. A forced quarantine is a form of imprisonment, regardless of the connotations of that word. It would not be a balanced response to take that measure right now. People have rights in New Zealand - and until there is evidence of a single case, let alone transmission, the government should not be abusing those rights.

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#2421590 15-Feb-2020 21:53

tdgeek:

Yes, but if you are a NZ national/resident, and fly in, you are allowed. If thats via or from an infected country, including mainland China, you are asked/suggested/advised to self isolate. To me, the Government is doing nothing, we ask the citizens to do it, if they can be bothered.

Don't follow what you mean by "the crap we're seeing so far it's more than justified to take a cautious escalating approach" NZ is taking a cautious approach, at best, and even thats complimentary. We are not taking a Keep It Out approach which is our official stance. Its more like lets not upset anyone, inconvenience anyone, and cross our fingers. Now, if we got a few infected people inside our borders, and lets say for example, the self isolation infected 3 others each, so we have a dozen plus infected. Who would get the blame then?

We're seeing people who haven't even been to China being booted off work for weeks, We're seeing xenophobic crap everywhere towards nz born asians who haven't even left the country! AFAIK every major route into NZ has screening at the departure side. We are in the keep it out phase and what we are seeing globally isn't enough to start kicking off more drastic measure that would ratchet up the social and economic damage. Overseas experience is showing it's not as dangerous or as fatal in a healthy population.

What exactly are you saying we should be doing? Mandatory swabs at the boarder? Shut down all flights from infected countries? Enforced quarantine even in asymptomatic cases? Turn around anyone with a fever? What steps do you feel we are missing to "Keep It Out"

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#2421630 16-Feb-2020 07:23

Beccara:

We're seeing people who haven't even been to China being booted off work for weeks, We're seeing xenophobic crap everywhere towards nz born asians who haven't even left the country! AFAIK every major route into NZ has screening at the departure side. We are in the keep it out phase and what we are seeing globally isn't enough to start kicking off more drastic measure that would ratchet up the social and economic damage. Overseas experience is showing it's not as dangerous or as fatal in a healthy population.

What exactly are you saying we should be doing? Mandatory swabs at the boarder? Shut down all flights from infected countries? Enforced quarantine even in asymptomatic cases? Turn around anyone with a fever? What steps do you feel we are missing to "Keep It Out"

I don't see voluntary isolation is a keep it out action. I would prefer an enforced home quarantine as a better measure than an if you can be bothered quarantine. Or we move it past keep it out to the next change which is not keep it out but hope for the best and manage it if we have to. If we get a case here, and then we have the taxi/bus contacts and contacts they had and contacts they had to send to that quarantine location we already have. If its decreed that its not that bad, and we will voluntary quarantine and if and when we have cases we will manage it from there, thats fine, but lets not kid ourselves its a keep it out stage. We have a healthy population, as does China. medical is easy to get there, but its the elderly and others that are the main fatalities, its no different here.

But lets firstly admit we aren't in a keep it out stage, we are allowing nationals in irregardless of where they have been, and please stay home for 14 days if you can manage that.

Tinkerisk

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#2421662 16-Feb-2020 10:07

Nice theoretical discussion. The impacts are coming closer. My wife is a doctor in a hospital (here in Germany) and received an alarm call for suspected COVID-19 when shopping at the weekend. The responsible health authority was informed immediately. Let us hope that the two suspected cases will not be confirmed.

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#2421706 16-Feb-2020 10:23

It's not just a theoretical discussion.

In spite of the criticism of Government actions (or perceived inaction) in some posts here and in the media, I think New Zealand authorities have done an admirable job of responding to this crisis without resorting to “fear, misinformation, racism and xenophobia,”

The press release quoted by @freitasm outlines the "precautionary approach" being followed, and the noted importance of balancing of the severity of health risks against societal and economic disruption in the 2017 pandemic plan linked by @Beccara both show the government's able - and trying - to take a reasoned, measured and scientific approach to the effects of a moderate pandemic.

New Zealand's a signatory to the World Health Organization’s International Health Regulations.

Because of this, NZ has an obligation under the IHR - and within 48 hours of their implementation - to inform the WHO of it's public health rationales and justifications when implementing any additional health measures that may "significantly interfere with international traffic".

There's pressure to come up with real - science based - justifications of any restrictions that might be regarded as inconsistent with the International Health Regulations..

It's interesting that many countries, including Australia and the USA likely broke International Law when they immediately imposed blanket restrictions on travellers who'd recently been in China. NZ followed suit, though perhaps in a more measured way, and - hopefully - informing the WHO.

The ICAO (a United Nations agency, and the forum for cooperation in civil aviation among the 193 UN Member States) has pointed out exceeding WHO guidance recommendations without having conducted an appropriate risk assessment is considered to lead to unnecessary and negative impacts, especially for the many vulnerable or isolated populations which rely so importantly on their global aviation connections.

It has launched an information exchange platform called 'Collaborative Arrangement for the Prevention and Management of Public Health Events in Civil Aviation' (CAPSCA) to assist in co-ordinating the international response to events such as this, and decreasing the need for unilateral actions in the future.

Tinkerisk

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#2421749 16-Feb-2020 10:35

Really without any panicking: it is not a question of whether, but when the virus will arrive.

Both cases made their way back from China to here (again, Germany, not NZ) by several country hopps and arrived one week before despite of the fact, that flights from China have been immediately cancelled by the carriers. "Happily" the pilots are now responsible to watch their passengers for symptoms.

Beccara

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#2421755 16-Feb-2020 11:03

tdgeek:

I don't see voluntary isolation is a keep it out action. I would prefer an enforced home quarantine as a better measure than an if you can be bothered quarantine. Or we move it past keep it out to the next change which is not keep it out but hope for the best and manage it if we have to. If we get a case here, and then we have the taxi/bus contacts and contacts they had and contacts they had to send to that quarantine location we already have. If its decreed that its not that bad, and we will voluntary quarantine and if and when we have cases we will manage it from there, thats fine, but lets not kid ourselves its a keep it out stage. We have a healthy population, as does China. medical is easy to get there, but its the elderly and others that are the main fatalities, its no different here.

But lets firstly admit we aren't in a keep it out stage, we are allowing nationals in irregardless of where they have been, and please stay home for 14 days if you can manage that.

How on earth would enforced home quarantine work?

Would you use force to keep people in and out? If so how much? Would you taser someone trying to break quarantine? Would there be police watching the exits?

How/Who would supply food and supplies?

Who would be forced into this? People who have JUST visited China or all infected counties? To not risk asymptomatic carriers would you put ALL passengers or just the ones showing any signs

How about ships that have come from infected counties but been at sea less than 14 days? Do you keep them off shore until day 15?

IF you need to do a forced quarantine you dont do it in a home, You do it in a dedicated places LIKE WE ARE DOING to ensure quarantine isn't broken and you can ensure a humane response. There is no practial realistic way we in NZ would do enforced home quarantine because you'd need the army to enforce it for all people who have been to an infected country/city, You'd also need the army to distributed supplies and take medical professionals away from hospitals to do house visits

As for the healthy population? I'm sorry but it's just not the case compared to NZ/AU populations, 1 in 3 people smoke, most being men with upto 70% being smokers, China consumes 40% of the global cigarette supply despite being only 18% of the worlds population. Air quality (in terms of PM2.5) is bad most of the year even relative to other asian cities like Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok etc etc. ANY country with a high amount of smokers and air pollution is a prime target for a respiratory illness to break out.

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#2421758 16-Feb-2020 11:13

Ok, ok, calm down, it just my opinion, that's all. Its low risk here I know that, its also low risk for the other countries who are not near China, but they have cases. Lets hope those relatively few cases never went near anyone since arriving. The consensus is that its a risk worth taking, I get that. No.Im not suggesting an army etc. Right now its voluntary self isolation, there isnt anything wrong with making it more than voluntary, making it more serious, without bringing in the army or Statutes. Bit its a risk worth taking. I get that.

Beccara

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#2421759 16-Feb-2020 11:16

I just don't see how you can make it "more than voluntary" without force, Anything more than voluntary is either enforced or it's not (in which case it's really just voluntary). The question is the practicalities of how you enforce it

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#2421765 16-Feb-2020 11:28

Beccara:

I just don't see how you can make it "more than voluntary" without force, Anything more than voluntary is either enforced or it's not (in which case it's really just voluntary). The question is the practicalities of how you enforce it

I agree. What would happen if we had a case, say in AKL and CHC. Each had multiple contacts before they got crook. What would we do to those multiple contacts? I'd suggest they would be TOLD to self isolate, you are NOT to leave for two weeks. If I was one of those, thats a small price to pay IMHO. No army, no chains,not locked in a room. All I'm suggesting is something less casual that what we have now. Darned of I can find an article from last week. The traveller arrived here, a few small signs, a sign that a nurse is available, she was there with hand wash. He had transitted through the US, at the US he was asked, have you been to China, that was it. I guess thats got me thinking, along with colleagues that we discussed how they would self isolate. Which was generally, yeah I would if I had to but if I feel fine I'm off to the supermarket, curry house etc occasionally. Undoubtedly there would be many who would do the deed 100%, but many wont as it wont happen to me and I feel fine, etc. Because it wont get here, its overseas news, that type of apathy.

Again, just my personal opinion, no more :-)

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#2421772 16-Feb-2020 11:52

It isn't just the things you mention. What about someone who lives alone, or a single parent? Not everyone has a comprehensive social network around them. How are self-quarantined people supposed to do their shopping, or other essential chores? How are people in low-wage jobs supposed to survive for two weeks without working? I think it is very easy to be blasé about practicalities if they don't apply to your own situation.

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#2421774 16-Feb-2020 12:09

Rikkitic:

It isn't just the things you mention. What about someone who lives alone, or a single parent? Not everyone has a comprehensive social network around them. How are self-quarantined people supposed to do their shopping, or other essential chores? How are people in low-wage jobs supposed to survive for two weeks without working? I think it is very easy to be blasé about practicalities if they don't apply to your own situation.

Low wage earners probably wont be returning from overseas trips. But yes, it seems that self quarantine as advised by the Government doesnt work, for the reasons you state.

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#2421791 16-Feb-2020 12:53

The article I linked to a few days ago had 2 pac n save workers being told to stay home despite not stepping foot in China.

But you do have a point, the language being used could be beefed up at the Airport. Guess I'm just a little jaded from the hundreds of different version of "lock them up" i've been reading online recently lol

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#2421807 16-Feb-2020 13:28

Rikkitic:

It isn't just the things you mention. What about someone who lives alone, or a single parent? Not everyone has a comprehensive social network around them. How are self-quarantined people supposed to do their shopping, or other essential chores? How are people in low-wage jobs supposed to survive for two weeks without working? I think it is very easy to be blasé about practicalities if they don't apply to your own situation.

How do you even get home from the airport without contacting other people? (assuming you don't have a car in the carpark, or are able to arrange somebody to drop a car off in the airport carpark with keys planted or in a lockbox...) Taxi? Bus? Go to the rental car desk?

Even assuming that all the logistics of self quarantine can be resolved, I would still expect around 20%+ of the population to not comply.

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