MileHighKiwi:

dogstar001: So I guess NZ's strategy should be 4-6 weeks at level 4 to hammer the R0 to about. 5. Then move to level 3. Initially keeping restaurants, cafes, bars, nightclubs, casino's closed. Also ban any sort of event. Then see how that goes. Re-assess in 6 weeks.

To have some semblance of normality return I think some establishments should be allowed to open provided they meet certain requirements around food safety, distancing etc.

Yep, and the establishments need to police it. 

Scott3: Also, the lighting on the Empire State Building in New York is comically dystopian.

https://www.today.com/news/striking-video-shows-empire-state-building-spinning-siren-red-light-t177156

• "Florida woman with a black belt in martial arts was arrested after breaking her boyfriend’s nose for refusing to have sex with her and then spiting at a paramedic who responded to the scene while claiming she had coronavirus."
  
  
• "Florida man arrested for threatening COVID-19 contamination. Witnesses say the man sprayed an unknown substance labeled COVID-19 on the doors of a business"
  
  
• "Florida Man Pastor Arrested After He Ignored Quarantine and Held Church Service For Hundreds"
  
  
• "Florida Man Coughs on Deputy, Says He Has Coronavirus"
  

From news.com.au:

"More young women in their 20s have tested positive for the coronavirus in Australia than any other age or sex group, according to Health Department data."

dogstar001: 

Further most countries just aren't testing comprehensively enough. They miss most of the asymtomatic/mild cases. Which is a bulk of the cases.


The diamond princess (which is still ongoing) has 11 deaths of 712 patients. This is a 1.5% death rate. However what needs to be taken into consideration here is the age demographics of the ship. It is much older than society as a whole therefore this death rate is high.

Germany which has comprehensive contact tracing/testing is at a death rate about 1%. This will probably drift higher, but they even admit they are probably missing a lot of cases. It is hard to know how many.

Iceland has undergone the highest per capita testing of any country. They literally started randomly testing a percent of their population They have found that 50% of cases are asymtomatic. They have a death rate of .2%. This will tend higher as more cases are resolved probably the death rate will be .5%-1%.

All In all. The 19% death rate is incorrect. The death rate for countries that don't have their health system flooded is probably about .8%.

I keep reading stories like this https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12321388

"

 

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/campus/university-of-otago/virus-research-dunedin-containment-lab

 

Dunedin will soon become a key national centre for research into the virus that causes Covid-19 infections, thanks partly to a rare, high-level containment laboratory.

 

"We’re really excited about the opportunity," Prof Quinones-Mateu said.

 

"A lot of people are waiting for us to grow the virus.

 

He was looking forward to growing Sars-CoV-2, the virus responsible for Covid-19, in the laboratory and working with other New Zealand researchers, from Government agencies, universities, and the private sector. Research would include testing antiviral drugs, and vaccine-related studies.

now before I get called out for crucifixion I would like to ask the readers to check their calendar

kingdragonfly: Coronavirus: On the road with British police enforcing social distancing

BBC Newsnight

UK Government advice is clear that non-essential travel should be avoided, but many continue to be confused about when and why they can go outside, whether it’s OK to walk their dog, and what’s the right way to exercise during the coronavirus pandemic.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington/120709069/visitors-go-home-locals-build-cordon-to-keep-outsiders-away-during-lockdown?cid=app-android

From the above:

One lane of the sole-road in and out of Makara Beach near Wellington has been partially blocked by a barrier and signs warning the community is a restricted area. One sign reads simply: Go home.

"All we're doing is what the police are doing," resident Marty Green said, "telling people to go home."

This raises the question of whether locals have the power to block off access to their suburb. The same happened here:

An East Coast iwi who had already closed the road into their community have now introduced a curfew and ticketing systems to protect vulnerable residents.  Tourists have also been turned back from travelling through roads in the Far North by locals manning checkpoints.

On Tuesday, Police Commissioner Mike Bush said there were good intentions around roadblocks - keeping the community safe.

... But lawyer Douglas Ewan said the law was clear: members of the public can't block roads and doing so could be a criminal offence.

Also from the above article:

At Makara, a 20 minute drive from Karori, Green said locals were sick to death of people driving or cycling out to their community when there was no good excuse for it.

"There's no shops, no services, they're doing exactly what they've been told not to do.

New Zealanders have been told they can still get outside for exercise during the lockdown but many had found the messages mixed and confusing.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on Tuesday people should stay local and the preference was for people to just step outside of their home and stay in the community.

So perhaps the Police should block non-resident access to Makara seeing it's a 20-minute drive from Wellington and lots of bikers and cars are going there during the lockdown?

Batman:

 

 

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/campus/university-of-otago/virus-research-dunedin-containment-lab

 

Dunedin will soon become a key national centre for research into the virus that causes Covid-19 infections, thanks partly to a rare, high-level containment laboratory.

 

"We’re really excited about the opportunity," Prof Quinones-Mateu said.

 

"A lot of people are waiting for us to grow the virus.

 

He was looking forward to growing Sars-CoV-2, the virus responsible for Covid-19, in the laboratory and working with other New Zealand researchers, from Government agencies, universities, and the private sector. Research would include testing antiviral drugs, and vaccine-related studies.

 

 

now before I get called out for crucifixion and all sorts of banhammer threats I would like to ask the readers to check their calendar

 

Speaking of Dunners, Sir David Skegg said that the Govt needs to do more than a lockdown to stamp out the virus and wants a plan from them. Given that he is a well respected epidemiologist, why didnt he put forward his plan? He is arguably one of the most qualified to do so. His stance in that meeting did seem to be more critical than constructive

tdgeek:

 

Sir David Skegg said that the Govt needs to do more than a lockdown to stamp out the virus and wants a plan from them. Given that he is a well respected epidemiologist, why didnt he put forward his plan? He is arguably one of the most qualified to do so. His stance in that meeting did seem to be more critical than constructive

 

He did. The plan is not hard. People have been screaming from the start to do it.

Stop at the border - quarantine. That's what he said.

Test widely from the beginning - the testing criteria has been and still is really bad - that's what he said.

We must aim to eradicate, not flatten the curve - that's what he said.

Don't sit and look at models - get epidemiologists to help - that's what he said.

Batman:

 

I keep reading stories like this https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12321388

 

Marist College Auckland father turned away twice before testing positive"

This is ridiculous if true. I've been saying for ages we need wider random testing, but it appears some people can't even get tested when they have severe symptoms and are associated with a known cluster.

I'm the first to admit I have no idea about the logistics of wider testing, but all the data I've seen is suggesting that 30%-50% of cases are asymptomatic so we really need to get a picture of the actual spread. How can the government formulate an effective plan when they have no idea of the true prevalence?

We keep hearing about how most new cases are associated with travel still. But is that just because those are the majority of who they are testing?

Remember folks, whatever you do, don't break your bubble or do something to put others in danger: