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3253 posts

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  #2451972 1-Apr-2020 09:08
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Here's a question:

 

Lets look at absolute best case that NZ manages to essentially eradicate COVID-19 from our shores, and is able to enforce appropriate border controls to keep it out until a vaccine is available.

 

Will (or should) the government make vaccination a legal requirement (unless there is a legitimate medical reason that an individual can't be vaccinated)?


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  #2451976 1-Apr-2020 09:10
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Batman:

 

tdgeek:

 

Sir David Skegg said that the Govt needs to do more than a lockdown to stamp out the virus and wants a plan from them. Given that he is a well respected epidemiologist, why didnt he put forward his plan? He is arguably one of the most qualified to do so. His stance in that meeting did seem to be more critical than constructive

 

 

He did. The plan is not hard. People have been screaming from the start to do it.

 

Stop at the border - quarantine. That's what he said. From when?

 

Test widely from the beginning - the testing criteria has been and still is really bad - that's what he said. From when?

 

We must aim to eradicate, not flatten the curve - that's what he said.

 

Don't sit and look at models - get epidemiologists to help - that's what he said.

 

 

I assume the border is Jan 26? thats when we blocked China. Where would we put the thousands per day? The hotels were not empty then.

 

How widely do we test? Everyone? Did we have enough tests then? The other day we had 30000 swabs, more coming this week and next week. 30000 is about two weeks supply at todays testing rates. Assuming we should be testing say 5 or 10 times more?  I doubt very much we could have started very very widespread testing back then. Testing asymptomatic people is a wasted test it will be negative. Going back to Jan 26, I wonder of his ideas were the same then. It was an unknown quantity, where the outbreak was mainly China and then Iran, both not exactly ideal standard test cases. Did he state way back then that the world will be as it is now? Hindsight. And he did seem more into bashing MoH and the Govt than contributing.


 
 
 
 


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  #2451977 1-Apr-2020 09:10
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Paul1977:

 

Here's a question:

 

Lets look at absolute best case that NZ manages to essentially eradicate COVID-19 from our shores, and is able to enforce appropriate border controls to keep it out until a vaccine is available.

 

Will (or should) the government make vaccination a legal requirement (unless there is a legitimate medical reason that an individual can't be vaccinated)?

 

 

There are things more deadly and more contagious than C19 we currently immunise against and stupidly, THOSE aren't illegal to not have, so I seriously doubt it.

 

Having said that, C19 may change everything.

 

 


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  #2451978 1-Apr-2020 09:12
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Geektastic: I’ve seen a few reports of various places within NZ in which locals are erecting barriers and attempting to prevent anyone entering.

Ignoring for a moment the fact that people aren’t supposed to be going anywhere much anyway, by what right do those taking this action claim the ability to close public highways etc?

 

They've got no rights at all to close public roads, but IIRC some of the first reports of this were closing of privately owned roads that had been used by the public.  The usual clickbait-prone dimwits who never read past a headline thought this was a thing.  And now it's become a thing, apparently.  Just not a very big thing - for example the "roadblock" in Makara isn't a roadblock - it's some locals who've put a movable barrier mainly to the side of the road with some signs telling people to bugger off. 


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  #2451988 1-Apr-2020 09:12
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tdgeek: Testing asymptomatic people is a wasted test it will be negative.

 

 

Where are you getting that from?




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  #2451991 1-Apr-2020 09:16
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tdgeek:

 

Sir David Skegg said that the Govt needs to do more than a lockdown to stamp out the virus and wants a plan from them. Given that he is a well respected epidemiologist, why didnt he put forward his plan? He is arguably one of the most qualified to do so. His stance in that meeting did seem to be more critical than constructive

 

He did. The plan is not hard. People have been screaming from the start to do it.

 

Stop at the border - quarantine. That's what he said. From when?

 

Test widely from the beginning - the testing criteria has been and still is really bad - that's what he said. From when?

 

We must aim to eradicate, not flatten the curve - that's what he said.

 

Don't sit and look at models - get epidemiologists to help - that's what he said.

 

I assume the border is Jan 26? thats when we blocked China. Where would we put the thousands per day? The hotels were not empty then.

 

How widely do we test? Everyone? Did we have enough tests then? The other day we had 30000 swabs, more coming this week and next week. 30000 is about two weeks supply at todays testing rates. Assuming we should be testing say 5 or 10 times more?  I doubt very much we could have started very very widespread testing back then. Testing asymptomatic people is a wasted test it will be negative. Going back to Jan 26, I wonder of his ideas were the same then. It was an unknown quantity, where the outbreak was mainly China and then Iran, both not exactly ideal standard test cases. Did he state way back then that the world will be as it is now? Hindsight. And he did seem more into bashing MoH and the Govt than contributing.

 

 

You asked me a question I gave you the answer from the TV feed. I'm not giving my views into these arguments and then risk getting banned. You'll have to ask other people.





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2451993 1-Apr-2020 09:17
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Paul1977:

 

tdgeek: Testing asymptomatic people is a wasted test it will be negative.

 

 

Where are you getting that from?

 

 

Thats what Ive read here and seen on TV. No symptoms means negative test. If you are very early into symptoms, possibly negative.


 
 
 
 




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  #2451997 1-Apr-2020 09:22
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tdgeek:

 

Thats what Ive read here and seen on TV. No symptoms means negative test. If you are very early into symptoms, possibly negative.

 

 

Correct me if i'm wrong, didn't I keep hearing from TV that we have a low risk of community transmission and then bam, shutdown due to something about community transmission? 





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2451998 1-Apr-2020 09:23
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Paul1977:

 

Here's a question:

 

Lets look at absolute best case that NZ manages to essentially eradicate COVID-19 from our shores, and is able to enforce appropriate border controls to keep it out until a vaccine is available.

 

Will (or should) the government make vaccination a legal requirement (unless there is a legitimate medical reason that an individual can't be vaccinated)?

 

 

How about making deportation of anti-vaxxers mandatory? 

 

 

 

For the safety of the population and the betterment of the gene pool...





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  #2452002 1-Apr-2020 09:27
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tdgeek:

 

Thats what Ive read here and seen on TV. No symptoms means negative test. If you are very early into symptoms, possibly negative.

 

 

ALso if I recall correctly when the logan park school in Dunedin had a case they tested all 150 people from the school. Did they all have symptoms you reckon?

 

After that they also test would all contacts of new cases or was logan park a one off? If they are not testing all the contacts, who are the 1000 people that they test a day if everyone without a contact or travel history have been declined a test? All the contacts can't all have symptoms to get tested?

 

I'm asking genuine questions.





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2452004 1-Apr-2020 09:29
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Batman:

 

tdgeek:

 

Thats what Ive read here and seen on TV. No symptoms means negative test. If you are very early into symptoms, possibly negative.

 

 

ALso if I recall correctly when the logan park school in Dunedin had a case they tested all 150 people from the school. Did they all have symptoms you reckon?

 

After that they also test would all contacts of new cases or was logan park a one off? If so who are the 1000 people that they test a day if everyone without a contact or travel history have been declined a test?

 

I'm asking genuine questions.

 

 

I think it's fair to say they test people with cold/flu symptoms as well to catch early?

 

Do you need to really get all up in arms for this? 





 

 

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  #2452005 1-Apr-2020 09:29
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tdgeek:

 

Thats what Ive read here and seen on TV. No symptoms means negative test. If you are very early into symptoms, possibly negative.

 

 

If you tested everybody who wanted to be tested, you'd be swamped by the "worried well" - probably a few million in NZ.

 

And yeah - there's a problem with the rRT-PCR test - if someone has mild or no symptoms, then you'll miss positives because there wasn't any viral RNA on the swab.  If you do serological testing, then you'll miss positives who have only recently been infected, may be very actively shedding virus, but won't test positive (yet) for antibodies.

 

Lock down and maximise testing is still the way to go.  Both test methods have serious flaws, but in time the serological testing will be able to give a good idea of where we're at.  You don't want to be in the position of Italy for example - where the main thing you'll achieve by such testing is confirmation that the horse bolted many weeks ago.


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  #2452006 1-Apr-2020 09:30
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My biggest issue with claims that would should have closed earlier is we have the benefit of hindsight.

Also sad to say, I think the wider public needs to see actual deaths before they will buy into restrictions. And I know it sounds racists but those deaths need to be from countries the public relates to. Ie not china or Iran.

Also there would have been alot of push back from businesses and opposition parties.

A



Would we have passed that gun legislation without the chch shooting ?

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  #2452013 1-Apr-2020 09:40
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afe66: My biggest issue with claims that would should have closed earlier is we have the benefit of hindsight.

 

Yes - my "biggest" issue with it is that it's completely irrelevant to how we deal with the problem we have now.

 

For future reference (next potential pandemic disease - and there will be one), then maybe we've learned something.


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  #2452015 1-Apr-2020 09:43
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I post this with a warning that it's a pre-print (not peer reviewed), but seems good to me:

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044420v1

 

 

This paper provides the first plausibly causal estimates of the relationship between COVID-19 transmission and local temperature using a global sample comprising of 166,686 confirmed new COVID-19 cases from 134 countries from January 22, 2020 to March 15, 2020. We find robust statistical evidence that a 1°C increase in local temperature reduces transmission by 13% [-21%, -4%, 95%CI].

 

 

"winter is coming"

 

(Yes - "flu" is "seasonal" too - but something else may be going on here)

 

 


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