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  #2452186 1-Apr-2020 11:39
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MadEngineer:

 

tdgeek:

 

Watched a really interesting piece on Sky News AU last night. A research centre that has a particle accelerator, takes atom level images of the virus uisng its bright light (10 million times brighter than the Sun) Once they see the design of the virus they can design a vaccine, that I think has a similar makeup, so that the immune system can see it and recognise it and attack it.

 

https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-news/2020/03/31/australia-enlists-particle-accelerator-in-coronavirus-fight

 

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/australia/australian-experts-unlocking-covid-19-cure

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Synchrotron

 

Fascinating

 

That's not a vaccine. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiviral_drug 

 

 

OK, The TV piece and the CEO of the accelerator said a vaccine. Admittedly a lot of it was over my head.


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  #2452192 1-Apr-2020 11:43
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MikeAqua:

 

freitasm:

 

There is no evidence of herd immunity yet which relies on people developing resistance - but at what cost? That's what vaccines exist for.

 

 

8 strains of Coronavirus last I read up on the subject.  Tricky vaccine?  There are only 2 or 3 strains in the regular flu-jab.

 

 

 

 

Way more if a 'mutation' is the same as a 'strain' in this context (I do not know if it is).

 

 

 

"Researchers at DeCode genetics have found forty mutations of the coronavirus in Iceland alone; one individual had been infected by two variants at the same time. "






 
 
 
 


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  #2452194 1-Apr-2020 11:45
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tdgeek:

 

MadEngineer:

 

That's not a vaccine. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiviral_drug 

 

 

OK, The TV piece and the CEO of the accelerator said a vaccine. Admittedly a lot of it was over my head.

 

 

Same tech can be used for both - (biotech) production of a monoclonal antibody and/or production of cloned proteins to splice into a live vaccine organism to stimulate an immune response.

 

The German company that Trump allegedly tried to corner into an exclusive deal to produce vaccine/treatments works on this stuff.


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  #2452203 1-Apr-2020 11:50
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Fred99:

 

 

 

Same tech can be used for both - (biotech) production of a monoclonal antibody and/or production of cloned proteins to splice into a live vaccine organism to stimulate an immune response.

 

The German company that Trump allegedly tried to corner into an exclusive deal to produce vaccine/treatments works on this stuff.

 

 

Thanks. With all this great science and the great collaboration, I'm hopeful something is found sooner then later. Fast track trials if possible


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  #2452212 1-Apr-2020 11:56
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https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120688304/nz-heading-for-extension-of-level-4-coronavirus-lockdown-kiwi-in-china-says

 

From the above:

 

A New Zealander who spent two months under lockdown in China says Kiwis need to abandon any "she'll be right" attitude to the level four restrictions here.

 

Dallas had heard about the hundreds of people who flocked to the capital's Oriental Parade on Sunday, which earned a rebuke from the Police Comissioner.

 

"You are going to be in lockdown not for four weeks but for maybe eight or nine," he predicted.

 

"The 'she'll be right' attitude … is going to work against the numbers coming down. It's not going to happen if people are still going to go out and associate with one another."

 

During much of his lockdown, Dallas was unable to leave the apartment building .

 

I think this article is worth reading because it shows just how much stricter China has been compared to NZ. People here seem to think it's quite OK to go to the beach etc even if it's quite a distance from home.I suppose it keeps people sane doing this, but it may not help us in our fight to stop the virus spreading like wildfire as it has in several places overseas.

 

This article also deals with the experiences of Wellington lawyer jd Dallas in the the city of Shiyan in China.


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  #2452223 1-Apr-2020 12:10
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frednz:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120688304/nz-heading-for-extension-of-level-4-coronavirus-lockdown-kiwi-in-china-says


From the above:


A New Zealander who spent two months under lockdown in China says Kiwis need to abandon any "she'll be right" attitude to the level four restrictions here.


Dallas had heard about the hundreds of people who flocked to the capital's Oriental Parade on Sunday, which earned a rebuke from the Police Comissioner.


"You are going to be in lockdown not for four weeks but for maybe eight or nine," he predicted.


"The 'she'll be right' attitude … is going to work against the numbers coming down. It's not going to happen if people are still going to go out and associate with one another."


During much of his lockdown, Dallas was unable to leave the apartment building .


I think this article is worth reading because it shows just how much stricter China has been compared to NZ. People here seem to think it's quite OK to go to the beach etc even if it's quite a distance from home.I suppose it keeps people sane doing this, but it may not help us in our fight to stop the virus spreading like wildfire as it has in several places overseas.



I don't think the country will last much longer than 4-5 weeks at level 4. The bubble system will start to break down. People are going to start visiting friends/family etc.

I personally am already using heart. We are unable to buy fruit & vegetables due to long queues. It is frustrating.

What I also find frustrating is the lack of repercussions for the 60 person backpacker parties. How is this allowed? Clovid19 will spend the next few weeks bouncing between people at these hostels. Then in a few weeks these people will.be let loose on society again & cases of "random" CT will follow in their footsteps. I promise you none of these people will be going to the DR if they have cold like symptoms.

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  #2452225 1-Apr-2020 12:12
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Geektastic:

 

Way more if a 'mutation' is the same as a 'strain' in this context (I do not know if it is).

 

"Researchers at DeCode genetics have found forty mutations of the coronavirus in Iceland alone; one individual had been infected by two variants at the same time. "

 

 

I posted a link to nextstrain a couple of pages back and I'll post it again here

 

It's probably worth reading up about about genotype-phenotype distinction.

 

Here we have a plot of observed mutations for the Covid-19 virus.  The numbers on concentric rings indicate number of mutations (from the index case virus at the centre - albeit a bit late because the Chinese uploaded several different genomes way back in January IIRC).
But afaik these mutations aren't changing the behaviour or properties of the virus (the phenotype).  In my amateur and non-expert opinion then if there is an observed difference in how the virus behaves - then maybe we should start calling it a "strain".

 


And a footnote to say that some people have been found to be infected with two mutations and it's quite likely that this could result in recombination of RNA to produce a new genotype, if you look at the country map on nextstrain, then it's not a linear/radial spread - even in NZ we've imported several distinct genotypes. 

 

 

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  #2452228 1-Apr-2020 12:14
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frednz:

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/n

 

I think this article is worth reading because it shows just how much stricter China has been compared to NZ. People here seem to think it's quite OK to go to the beach etc even if it's quite a distance from home.I suppose it keeps people sane doing this, but it may not help us in our fight to stop the virus spreading like wildfire as it has in several places overseas.

 

This article also deals with the experiences of Wellington lawyer jd Dallas in the the city of Shiyan in China.

 

 

Surely a lot of it is to do with population density, ie if you're living in a mega city with millions of other people in very close proximity, total lockdown is the only option.

 

But here in sparse NZ - even Auckland to some extent - the risk presented by someone walking on a quiet street, or driving a km or two to do the same on a quiet beach, is surely vanishingly small.  I'm not saying we should all be living our normal lives or anything even close but there is a safe compromise somewhere to be found


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  #2452230 1-Apr-2020 12:16
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With the spread of infections and deaths in the USA, and ramped up emergency measures around the country, is there any indication at all that Fox News viewers are starting to get uneasy and are beginning to look at other news sources for more accurate information?

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


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  #2452235 1-Apr-2020 12:19
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Rikkitic:

 

With the spread of infections and deaths in the USA, and ramped up emergency measures around the country, is there any indication at all that Fox News viewers are starting to get uneasy and are beginning to look at other news sources for more accurate information?

 

 

You'd hope so - but it's been April Fools over there every day since 2016.


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  #2452248 1-Apr-2020 12:41
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neb:
Scott3:

 

Residents in Wuhan are claiming a Death toll of 47,000 for the city. (official number 2,535).

 

Basis appears to be the number of urns that have been distributed to family members.

 

And you know it's true because of all the pollution that's started to reappear over Chinese cities, coming from the secret crematoria the government is running. This is really just wild speculation, there could be any number of reasons for distributing large numbers of urns. One that comes immediately to mind is that the government were preparing for many more deaths than they actually got and now need to clear excess inventory. Or the minimum order at the factory was 50K units and the same thing with inventory. I realise the Chinese figures are probably cooked, but using this as the basis for deaths is about as useful as reading tea leaves for it. In particular, given that this is China, someone got paid, possibly very well, to produce 50K urns, and what people could be seeing now is an attempt to show that the money wasn't wasted.

 

Obviously it is not possible to determine which urn's are full, and which contain the remains of covid-19 related fatalities (as opposed so say car crash fatalities).

 

However when taken together with other snippets of evidence, and the general situation, it is clear that the official covid-19 fatality numbers from wuhan are not plausible.

 

Indeed it seems improbable that wuhan residents would Que for hours to pick up empty urn's.

 

For example, there was a well published video shot at one of the hospitals in wuhan, in the height of the crisis, which captured more bodies than the official death count for that day. Wuhan has several hospitals.

 

I don't consider the comparison's the comparison of evidence backed skepticism of official position's with wild conspiracy theories to be helpful. China has a history of distorting the official position from SARS.


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Master Geek


  #2452252 1-Apr-2020 12:50
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I'll repost this image. The arrow indicate the gene responsible for the protein spike.  Mutations in this gene may cause a big enough difference in the protein to cause the vaccine not to work.  Mind you,  if there is a big difference the virus may stop working.  


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  #2452254 1-Apr-2020 12:56
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Scott3:

 

Obviously it is not possible to determine which urn's are full, and which contain the remains of covid-19 related fatalities (as opposed so say car crash fatalities).

 

 

With a population the size of Wuhan, the normal background death rate would have to be ~500/day.
Sanitary cremation of all bodies from any COD would be a pretty sensible idea, and sorry - in the total lockdown, you probably couldn't get out the door and head across town to pick up remains.

 

I think some of the conspiracy theories could be easily explained - but either Chinese authorities don't seem to be forthcoming - or the signal:noise ratio with conspiracy theory on the interweb makes it impossible to find.

 

Not helped by (mainly US origin) politically motivated blame shifting, to shift focus from their own mishandling of the pandemic to anti-China (and racist anti-Chinese) propaganda.

 

Could there be a conspiracy / cover-up in China?  Sure there could be. 


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  #2452255 1-Apr-2020 13:01
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  #2452256 1-Apr-2020 13:03
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A couple of US states are increasing penalties, notably Florida and Texas. These states are well-known for bone-headed or medieval laws. If you have time, check out their abortion and gun laws, and death penalty sentencing.

So I'm not suggesting implementing here.

Corpus Christi Texas news: Which laws are enhanced during a disaster declaration?

When Govenor Greg Abbott declared a major disaster for Texas because of COVID-19, it automatically enhanced the penalties attached to some crimes.

According to the Texas Penal Code, because of that disaster declaration, anyone arrested for certain crimes during the disaster period faces tougher penalties when they go to trial.

“If you’re going to hurt somebody or take advantage of somebody, it’s going to cost you a little more this go-around,” said Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez.

According to Gonzalez, the punishment for six categories of crimes; assault, arson, robbery, burglary, criminal trespass, and theft; is enhanced during a disaster. With those enhancements, penalties are more severe.

“We would hope that no one hurts their neighbors or commits any of these crimes, but if you do in this time of disaster, it’s going to bump it up one level,” said Gonzalez.

For misdemeanors, that means an extra six months in jail; felony cases also move up a degree. Those enhancements apply to bail as well...

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