2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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121 posts

Master Geek

#2422221 17-Feb-2020 09:40

Outbreak in Japan (not withstanding the plague ship).

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/15/national/eight-coronavirus-infections-confirmed-tokyo-japan-sees-spate-domestic-transmissions/

Will be interesting to see if the government block travelers from Japan now too.

On the one hand do you spread the fear and xenophobia and economic impact?

Or do you anger China further by somehow making them the only country subject to this sort of treatment?

Reports are that travelers to/from Japan may have contracted or spread the virus whilst in Hawaii - so next step blocking travelers from the good ole USA huh?

We live in interesting times.

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tdgeek

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#2422227 17-Feb-2020 09:50

Very concerning, most of these new ones have no China contacts, so a few did, now spreading it around, via train, hospital, taxi.

FineWine

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#2422232 17-Feb-2020 10:09

Beccara:

Big jump in numbers today outside of China but again most are the Cruise ship, We're seeing nearly 10% of the ships population infected now.

IMO quarantining the passengers on that ship was a huge mistake. Mainly due to the enclosed air conditioning system and the close proximity of everyone. I mean having 3500 people in close proximity to each other is inherently hazardous at the best of times. Most ducted air conditioning systems is still a shared air environment, looping from one cabin/area to the next. So removing all passengers to a land-based quarantine where air is not recirculated would most definitely be safer. At the moment can it be proven recirculated air is not the vector to spreading the virus, I mean the daily count of those on board the Diamond Princess is growing.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

sittingduckz

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#2422235 17-Feb-2020 10:14

grimwulf:

Outbreak in Japan (not withstanding the plague ship).

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/15/national/eight-coronavirus-infections-confirmed-tokyo-japan-sees-spate-domestic-transmissions/

Will be interesting to see if the government block travelers from Japan now too.

On the one hand do you spread the fear and xenophobia and economic impact?

Or do you anger China further by somehow making them the only country subject to this sort of treatment?

Reports are that travelers to/from Japan may have contracted or spread the virus whilst in Hawaii - so next step blocking travelers from the good ole USA huh?

We live in interesting times.

When you remove the plague ship numbers it's not too highin Japan yet

I'm not a complete idiot, I still have some parts missing.

tdgeek

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#2422242 17-Feb-2020 10:22

sittingduckz:

grimwulf:

Outbreak in Japan (not withstanding the plague ship).

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/15/national/eight-coronavirus-infections-confirmed-tokyo-japan-sees-spate-domestic-transmissions/

Will be interesting to see if the government block travelers from Japan now too.

On the one hand do you spread the fear and xenophobia and economic impact?

Or do you anger China further by somehow making them the only country subject to this sort of treatment?

Reports are that travelers to/from Japan may have contracted or spread the virus whilst in Hawaii - so next step blocking travelers from the good ole USA huh?

We live in interesting times.

When you remove the plague ship numbers it's not too highin Japan yet

I think the point is, its in Japan and growing,ignore the ship numbers. Its growing with people that have not had any China contact. Spread via train, taxi, hospital from one or a small number that did have China contact. No doubt many others there have had contact with these few, and new, and growing infected people, but they will be on another news day.

Beccara

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#2422249 17-Feb-2020 10:52

How well Japan handles it and how far it goes will be a blueprint for either how to handle or not handle the outbreak. They have 53 cases total with a new case history of 12,8,4,0,2,0,0 over the past week or so

Most problems are the result of previous solutions...

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Fred99

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#2422250 17-Feb-2020 10:52

sittingduckz:

When you remove the plague ship numbers it's not too high in Japan yet

59 cases - just behind Singapore (75), about the same as Hong Kong. (4 asymptomatic - but tested positive - so not on the official list - kind of unusual reporting even though false positive test is possible / could be suspected)

Reading some Japanese new sites it seemed that they were on the verge of declaring sustained P2P transmission (which should trigger the WHO to declare a pandemic), but that may have been Google translate fault - not picking up subtleties in translation.

As for foreign students in NZ, from RNZ:

A spokesperson for the Chinese consulate general in Auckland, Xiao Yewen, said the government should lift the travel ban, and not just for students.

"The key to solving this problem is to cancel the travel ban as soon as possible," Xiao said.

Optimistically, China's internal travel bans seem to have slowed the growth rate of new cases, and if there isn't yet sustained P2P transmission outside China, so I suppose it could be said that travel restrictions / quarantine are working. Longer term though - where does this leave China? If it's left as the only country with sustained P2P transmission (and 20% of the world population) - it could stay that way indefinitely until the epidemic burns out, then maybe longer until there are no new isolated outbreak cases.

It's a pretty horrible situation when there's pressure to make decisions when the impact of those decisions can only be found out in hindsight - and that works both ways - whether the restrictions are excessive - or not restrictive enough. If for example NZ eased travel/quarantine restrictions and there was a subsequent outbreak here, there's going to be a lot of finger pointing and political point-scoring. OTOH if there's never an outbreak in NZ, it's going to be impossible to prove why not - to refute claims that we "overreacted".

Beccara

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#2422255 17-Feb-2020 11:04

There always is, It's a no-win for 99.9% of the events as either it blows over and any impact/cost from implemented is deemed to be a waste (See Y2K) or it's not enough and there's a major outbreak and not enough was done (See SARS, 2009 Swine Flu in NZ). The problem stems from the epidemiological standpoint that stopping a foothold requires prompt drastic measures like the 89 Ebola outbreak near DC, These measures don't really work when it's humans you're dealing with so how you contain and stop a foothold when the virus is already in the human-to-human transmission stage is something that still hotly debated in epidemiology

alexx

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#2422260 17-Feb-2020 11:14

The Air New Zealand rescue flight from Wuhan arrived back on the 5th of Feb, so the people in quarantine in Whangaparaoa, must be reaching their 14 days on Wednesday. Hope everything is o.k. there and they all get to go home this week.

I'm not sure what to think of the situation in Japan. I think it might be far too soon to say that we block the entry from travellers from Japan. The government there need to get the situation under control, if they want the Olympic Games to happen this year.

#include <standard.disclaimer>

grimwulf

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Master Geek

#2422283 17-Feb-2020 11:32

I hadn't even thought of that actually.

There's probably a very good chance that the Olympic games will be cancelled - you'd have to be pretty brave to travel to a country that's very reliant on both overground and underground train travel.

Japan's public transport is lauded for being very professionally run - but from personal experience I can state that the system is heavily overloaded - especially at commuting times.

Imagine that, overloaded by Olympics visitors, with coronovirus in the mix, then those Olympics travelers mixing and eventually going back to their own countries.

That's not even counting athletes all being stuffed many to a room in an Olympic village...

Given there's clear non-China relating p2p transmission in Japan already - I very much doubt the Olympics will go ahead... or rather I should say "should" go ahead. The bigwigs will whinge about economic cost no doubt...

Fred99

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#2422288 17-Feb-2020 11:41

alexx:

The Air New Zealand rescue flight from Wuhan arrived back on the 5th of Feb, so the people in quarantine in Whangaparaoa, must be reaching their 14 days on Wednesday. Hope everything is o.k. there and they all get to go home this week.

The chance of there having being an infected person on that flight is very low. That's even if the official tally of confirmed cases was vastly understated (offset by the number of confirmed cases that wouldn't have been getting on the flight anyway).

frankv

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#2422305 17-Feb-2020 12:00

Fred99:

A spokesperson for the Chinese consulate general in Auckland, Xiao Yewen, said the government should lift the travel ban, and not just for students.

"The key to solving this problem is to cancel the travel ban as soon as possible," Xiao said.

Optimistically, China's internal travel bans seem to have slowed the growth rate of new cases,

That's contradictory... travel bans within China are a good idea, but (according to the Chinese CG) travel bans from China to elsewhere aren't. I suspect that the Chinese CG is more interested in promoting trade and tourism than in controlling the spread of Covid-19.

tdgeek

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#2422346 17-Feb-2020 12:09

I assume that is what Fred referred to:

https://play.stuff.co.nz/details/_6132961749001

China reported a fall in the number of new coronavirus cases on Sunday (February 16) with a health official suggesting that intensive efforts to stop the spread of the disease were beginning to work.

Hopefully that start of a downturn and not a statistical or reporting anomaly, where the high level of self quarantine is providing a shortage of available people, in range, to infect.I assume those that were infected, and are now back to full health, will have some immunity?

tdgeek

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#2422347 17-Feb-2020 12:12

frankv:

That's contradictory... travel bans within China are a good idea, but (according to the Chinese CG) travel bans from China to elsewhere aren't. I suspect that the Chinese CG is more interested in promoting trade and tourism than in controlling the spread of Covid-19.

NZ has banned everyone who is not a national or resident to enter NZ, thats an NZ decision. Its not a decision that is made or should be made by another country. So, there is a travel ban from China to NZ, the NZ Government's.

frankv

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#2422349 17-Feb-2020 12:20

grimwulf:

Imagine that, overloaded by Olympics visitors, with coronovirus in the mix, then those Olympics travelers mixing and eventually going back to their own countries.

That's not even counting athletes all being stuffed many to a room in an Olympic village...

Given there's clear non-China relating p2p transmission in Japan already - I very much doubt the Olympics will go ahead... or rather I should say "should" go ahead. The bigwigs will whinge about economic cost no doubt...

I can't quite figure out how many on the ship are infected... according to https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/diamond-princess-passenger-describes-watching-bizarre-process-of-us-coronavirus-evacuation/ar-BB103qqM, it is 285+, including 67 new cases on Saturday. But according to https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6, there's only 59 confirmed cases in Japan.

Tokyo Olympics aren't until July -- there may very well be no covid-19 cases in Japan by then.

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