2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2423783 19-Feb-2020 09:55

Well at least the cruise ship is going to give us a nice window on raw transmission. Hearing that there was never a practical quarantine in place hence the rapid spread, Apparently nobody in charge had a clue and ended up with someone sneaking ONTO the ship with experience:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtHYZkLuKcI

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tdgeek

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#2423786 19-Feb-2020 10:04

Beccara:

Well at least the cruise ship is going to give us a nice window on raw transmission. Hearing that there was never a practical quarantine in place hence the rapid spread, Apparently nobody in charge had a clue and ended up with someone sneaking ONTO the ship with experience:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtHYZkLuKcI

Isn't the 70,000+ cases evidence of raw transmission? Deduct those that caught it from meat in the alleged meat market in Wuhan, the balance must be human transmission?

Beccara

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#2423787 19-Feb-2020 10:09

In all honestly, Can't trust the China numbers, limited WHO access on the ground and changing methods, Plus the . The cruise ship is a fairly static number of people at a small enough scale to manage in an easier to quantify day-to-day routine vs the 1000's of potential people in China that have been breaking quarantine. It's also a population that may be in a generally healthier condition

edit:// When i say raw transmission I mean human to human transmission that isn't being curtailed by outside forces. That video if true paints a picture of no real quarantine so nothing getting in the way of the virus moving through the population

tdgeek

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#2423791 19-Feb-2020 10:17

Beccara:

In all honestly, Can't trust the China numbers, limited WHO access on the ground and changing methods, Plus the . The cruise ship is a fairly static number of people at a small enough scale to manage in an easier to quantify day-to-day routine vs the 1000's of potential people in China that have been breaking quarantine. It's also a population that may be in a generally healthier condition

edit:// When i say raw transmission I mean human to human transmission that isn't being curtailed by outside forces. That video if true paints a picture of no real quarantine so nothing getting in the way of the virus moving through the population

Ok, but as far as I am concerned, it doesn't matter if the Chinese numbers are correct or over or understated. The virus is being transmitted by human to human contact, less those in Wuhan who ate bad meat.

Beccara

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#2423794 19-Feb-2020 10:24

I'm not contesting H2H being valid, I'm saying the cruise ship gives us a nice view on what for example the R0 value is when minimal/no effective barriers are put up. We haven't had a large enough group in close quarters outside of China yet so this is the first chance to see transmission pathways, fatality counts and overall health impact on a non-Chinese population

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#2423954 19-Feb-2020 12:29

tdgeek:
Yep. My mate has to quarantine as his gf is returning, but he tells me its pointless, as others wont self quarantine so why bother.

Someone I know lives with someone just returned from China in the next province from Hubei. He's not quarantined. Not sure about the house mate.

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#2423962 19-Feb-2020 12:45

Batman:
tdgeek:

Yep. My mate has to quarantine as his gf is returning, but he tells me its pointless, as others wont self quarantine so why bother.

Someone I know lives with someone just returned from China in the next province from Hubei. He's not quarantined. Not sure about the house mate.

Some workplaces have rules to cover that. Govt says the the traveller needs to self quarantine for 14 days. Some employers say that housemates have to as well. I know one that doesn't though. Some employers have red line countries. Some have just China which is basically saying they have no polic,y do with the Govt says.

All a bit of a joke really. She'll be right, mate, don't worry about it

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#2423996 19-Feb-2020 13:18

1st batch out of NZ quarantine, no cases. Cruise ship people going in soon

pinkydot

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#2424032 19-Feb-2020 13:59

The 14 days self quarantine only has one benefit, lucky ones don't have to go to work. Knowing someone that need self quarantine and just came back, they didn't even care at all.

They still go out shopping, buy foods, go watch movies, go to the beach.. etc. Only the work place just being cautions follow what the Govt ask to do, just ask them self quarantine for 14 days and came back later. So pretty much they have another 14 days holiday since back to NZ.

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#2424043 19-Feb-2020 14:09

pinkydot:

The 14 days self quarantine only has one benefit, lucky ones don't have to go to work. Knowing someone that need self quarantine and just came back, they didn't even care at all.

They still go out shopping, buy foods, go watch movies, go to the beach.. etc. Only the work place just being cautions follow what the Govt ask to do, just ask them self quarantine for 14 days and came back later. So pretty much they have another 14 days holiday since back to NZ.

I know someone like that. Doesnt want to from work as its pointless. Its actually as its inconvenient.

Fred99

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#2424131 19-Feb-2020 16:44

Beccara:

1st batch out of NZ quarantine, no cases. Cruise ship people going in soon

Almost...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/119631262/coronavirus-8-new-zealanders-to-be-evacuated-from-cruise-ship-diamond-princess

Speaking at a press conference on Wednesday afternoon, Director-general of health Ashley Bloomfield said one person that had been staying in Whangaparāoa Military Camp since being evacuated from Wuhan, China, two weeks ago, had displayed mild symptoms consistent with the virus.

Both the person and another person who had been sharing their living quarters had been held back in quarantine while tests were run for the virus, he said.

Bloomfield said it was unlikely the person had contracted the virus, but health officials were taking a precautionary approach.

Statistically very unlikely they have it - I guess we might find out tomorrow.

Oblivian

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#2424173 19-Feb-2020 18:07

They've been cleared (release to news desk just on 6)

old3eyes

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#2424193 19-Feb-2020 19:00

My sister in law who has been in the US for the past year came home about 10 days ago. Phoned her medical center to get her 6 months of her prescription drugs to take back with her in a months time was told they wouldn't let her into the center as she hadn't been in NZ for 14 days. She ordered and paid for them online and they dressed in gowns and maskes brought the prescription out to her car.

Regards,

Old3eyes

loceff13

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#2424271 19-Feb-2020 21:54

grimwulf:

Struggling to think of a way to 'short' the Olympics at this point.

Short any company involved in logging or cargo shipping with China(ie NZ locally traded port companies), log order volume has dropped significantly and the bulk of NZ logging crews have stopped work for the foreseeable future until demand returns. This is also affecting container ship volume but not on as large a scale yet but could dramatically if the outbreak spreads into larger port cities. If this drags on which is pretty likely some ports are going to miss revenue targets by tens of millions..

mattwnz

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#2424273 19-Feb-2020 21:58

old3eyes: My sister in law who has been in the US for the past year came home about 10 days ago. Phoned her medical center to get her 6 months of her prescription drugs to take back with her in a months time was told they wouldn't let her into the center as she hadn't been in NZ for 14 days. She ordered and paid for them online and they dressed in gowns and maskes brought the prescription out to her car.

That sounds bizarre. So even though they could potentially infect all of NZ outside of the medical centre, they were worried about them infecting people inside the medical centre?

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