Zepanda66: Even if we go back to level 3 at the end of April not much will change restaurants and cinemas and bars will still be closed even at level 3 it was still advised people stay home and work from home where possible I'm pretty sure schools closed when we moved to level 3 iirc as well. To return to any sort of normalcy we would have to drop back to at least level 2.

But can we go back to level two, when we still have any cases in NZ? We really have no option IMO but to stamp it out before going to level 2, otherwise we risk going back to level 4 later in the year. Overseas they are facing many months in lockdown, and then they also may have second waves. The US head doctor working with Trump is predicting a second wave in fall. I understand the second wave of the 1918 flu pandemic was worse than the first wave. We have to learn from history. NZ are lucky to have some good medical experts on this subject, including the one who has been appearing on the select committee.

frankv: Wonder if Guiliani has shares in that company as well?

mattwnz:

I understand the second wave of the 1918 flu pandemic was worse than the first wave. We have to learn from history. NZ are lucky to have some good medical experts on this subject, including the one who has been appearing on the select committee.

Wellington Support Services interactive map.

Batman:

 

does anyone know if any of the "PROBABALE" cases eventually get confirmed or refuted? if so what are the numbers?

 

or do they remain "probable" till the end of time?

 

Same here. What is the conversion rate from probable to confirmed? Looking at all the graphs out there, it seems everybody equates them to confirmed; i.e. 100. Is that because the probable cases also have to self isolate & seek medical treatment?

To put the performance of NZ, Australia & Chile into perspective, I have replaced Argentina in the plot below with Taiwan.  Taiwan is & was a lot more exposed to China than NZ and had its first case on 21 Jan, more than 5 weeks before New Zealand's first case.  To this day they have not implemented any significant lockdown on places of work or education, mainly just stringent travel restrictions, quarantine with heavy fines and restrictions on exports of masks and other medical supplies.  Wearing of masks has been mandatory on trains and intercity buses since 31 March.  That and fewer tests than NZ (not so necessary due to very low numbers of local cases - second plot below)

A couple of other points.  As at end of 6 April, Taiwan had a total of 373 cases, which equates to one fifteenth the per capita number of cases in NZ despite having had the virus more than 5 weeks earlier than NZ.  And that has nothing to do with the 'high' number of imported cases in NZ (43%).  Eighty six percent (324) of the current 376 confirmed cases in Taiwan were imported, double the NZ figure.  See Figure below from https://sites.google.com/cdc.gov.tw/2019-ncov/taiwan.  Just 52 'locally-acquired' cases in two and a half months.

Some details of measures taken by Taiwan are covered here https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/asia/taiwan-coronavirus-response-who-intl-hnk/index.html and in multiple other articles on the web.  Some of it may sound a bit draconian but so is our present situation, at a much larger cost.  

mattwnz:  ... The death rate is a significantly higher percentage in OZ, than NZ, which as discussed as per the briefing in the last few days,countries with higher percentages of deaths, the testing is likely not capturing  a significant amount of  the cases. 

Australia has done more extensive testing than NZ.  With only one death, the death rate for NZ is meaningless, especially given that 3 weeks ago we only had 12 cases.  Australia (like Taiwan) had it first case some 5 weeks before NZ, so has had double the time for deaths to accumulate - significantly more so when allow 2 - 3 weeks(?) lag between infection and death. 

As per my plot above (#2456759), 2 weeks 2 days ago the accumulated 'per capita cases * days' exposure for Australia was much larger than the corresponding for NZ.  They also have a higher proportion of imported cases (66% as at 7 April) than NZ (43%). That is more people repatriated or returned from ships and hot spots overseas.

Australia's fatality rate (0.9% CFR-7) is low, and their testing rate per capita high by world standards - higher than any other country with a population of 10 million or more.  Higher than Italy, Germany, Singapore or South Korea.  For the reasons discussed above, NZ's fatality rate is meaningless at this point.

DS248:

 

mattwnz:  ... The death rate is a significantly higher percentage in OZ, than NZ, which as discussed as per the briefing in the last few days,countries with higher percentages of deaths, the testing is likely not capturing  a significant amount of  the cases. 

 

Australia has done more extensive testing than NZ.  With only one death, the death rate for NZ is meaningless, especially given that 3 weeks ago we only had 12 cases.  Australia (like Taiwan) had it first case some 5 weeks before NZ, so has had double the time for deaths to accumulate - significantly more so when allow 2 - 3 weeks(?) lag between infection and death. 

 

As per my plot above (#2456759), 2 weeks 2 days ago the accumulated 'per capita cases * days' exposure for Australia was much larger than the corresponding for NZ.  They also have a higher proportion of imported cases (66% as at 7 April) than NZ (43%). That is more people repatriated or returned from ships and hot spots overseas.

 

Australia's fatality rate (0.9% CFR-7) is low, and their testing rate per capita high by world standards - higher than any other country with a population of 10 million or more.  Higher than Italy, Germany, Singapore or South Korea.  For the reasons discussed above, NZ's fatality rate is meaningless at this point.

 

Australia's larger per-capita accumulated testing appears to be largely a result of starting earlier, not sustaining a higher rate. In the past few days NZ has been testing around 2.5 times as many people per capita as Australia - half the number of daily tests, for one fifth the population.

New Zealand is also alone (as far as I can see, keen to be informed otherwise) in adding probable cases to confirmed cases for our reported total, which boosts the number around 25%. Australia is reporting confirmed cases.

Re the fatality rate, there is a lag but hospital admissions are a relevant leading indicator. Australia has around 9% of their current active cases in hospital, and nearly 3% in ICU. NZ has under 1.5% of current active cases in hospital.

Sources: health.govt.nz and health.gov.au

GV27:

 

This is all looking pretty encouraging? The lock-down seems to be limited opportunities for community transmission so maybe we'll be in a position to return to something approaching normality soon? 

Zepanda66: Wouldnt surprise me at all if trump was trying to rush out Hydroxy as a treatment option just to get the economy going again.

Those feelings seem to be driven by an actual drop in the daily increase in US cases, Trump’s jawboning about “tremendous light at the end of the tunnel’ yesterday, and his continuous promotion of hydroxychloroquine as a 'cure' that was being held up by pesky 'scientific trials' - a holdup now bypassed by leaving the use of it up to doctor's discretion.

Clever people like JP Morgan’s global head of macro quantitative and derivatives strategy are being quoted - he expects a 'limited” re-opening of the (US) economy' in the next two weeks.
 
Of course as well as rays of hope in NZ there's actual good news in 'East Asia' and the 'Western' World. Australia's flattening the curve - most of the worst hit European countries appear to have passed their peaks, Norway, Denmark and Austria are making plans to exit lockdown conditions with schools and public places re-opening..

But what happens as soon as 'physical distancing' is abandoned, particularly in Western Countries during times such as the Easter long weekend - does Community Transmission suddenly spring back? Will we have to maintain personal separation for months? Wonder what a 're-opening' will look like?

And I just can't believe financial markets have fully priced in the potential of corporate earnings collapse since the coronavirus outbreak's virtually shut down the global economy.

The pandemic's forecast to lead to a loss in working hours equivalent to 195 million full time jobs - far more than the 2009 crash, according to the International Labour Organisation in a report published on Tuesday.

World Bank President David Malpass recently said “Beyond the health impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic, we are expecting a major global recession.”
The IMF’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva reckons "the world economy come to a standstill... it is way worse than the global financial crisis” of 2008-2009.

So 'normality' perhaps on the surface only. I'm sure NZ's (and the world's) economy has a reckoning coming. That might be a second crisis.

ANglEAUT:

 

Batman:

 

does anyone know if any of the "PROBABALE" cases eventually get confirmed or refuted? if so what are the numbers?

 

or do they remain "probable" till the end of time?

 

 

Same here. What is the conversion rate from probable to confirmed? Looking at all the graphs out there, it seems everybody equates them to confirmed; i.e. 100. Is that because the probable cases also have to self isolate & seek medical treatment?

 

Im sure Dr A said one update, a while back, that if probables turn to confirmed, past probables drop by one, confirmed increases by one, and that wont be actively mentioned as is historical. Basically including probable new cases keeps the reality more correct, given that the vast majority of probables will test positive. 

DS248:

 

 

Does anyone have a NZ version of this? Very interested to see the trend over time of imported cases from our lapse border measures.

I would never have thought that the holiday spot/bach for Easter would be considered by anyone in level 4, but media raises it. Is that clickbait?  Surely no one thinks thats viable right now?