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  #2456721 7-Apr-2020 20:50
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Wonder if Guiliani has shares in that company as well?

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  #2456723 7-Apr-2020 20:52
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Zepanda66: Even if we go back to level 3 at the end of April not much will change restaurants and cinemas and bars will still be closed even at level 3 it was still advised people stay home and work from home where possible I'm pretty sure schools closed when we moved to level 3 iirc as well. To return to any sort of normalcy we would have to drop back to at least level 2.

 

 

 

But can we go back to level two, when we still have any cases in NZ? We really have no option IMO but to stamp it out before going to level 2, otherwise we risk going back to level 4 later in the year. Overseas they are facing many months in lockdown, and then they also may have second waves. The US head doctor working with Trump is predicting a second wave in fall. I understand the second wave of the 1918 flu pandemic was worse than the first wave. We have to learn from history. NZ are lucky to have some good medical experts on this subject, including the one who has been appearing on the select committee.


 
 
 
 


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  #2456724 7-Apr-2020 21:00
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frankv: Wonder if Guiliani has shares in that company as well?

 

 

Giuliani was already a bit of a loose cannon when he was mayor of NY, whatever he said went, and anyone who disagreed with him was in for a tongue-lashing. Age hasn't improved him. I don't think he needs shares in the company to run off at the mouth about it.

neb

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  #2456725 7-Apr-2020 21:03
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mattwnz:

I understand the second wave of the 1918 flu pandemic was worse than the first wave. We have to learn from history. NZ are lucky to have some good medical experts on this subject, including the one who has been appearing on the select committee.

 

 

From the data we have, see the data-analysis thread, the second wave in 1918/1919 wasn't nearly as bad. It also depended on when you came out of lockdown, some locations had the double-hump from a too-early retreat from lockdown, others who stayed in lockdown longer/managed it better didn't.

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  #2456747 7-Apr-2020 22:24
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These links are referral codes

 

Geekzone broadband switch | Eletricity comparison and switch | Hatch investment (NZ$ 10 bonus if NZ$100 deposited within 30 days) | Sharesies | Mighty Ape | Backblaze | Amazon | My technology disclosure 


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  #2456752 7-Apr-2020 22:45
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The major difference between level 3 and 4 seems to be that in level 3 we can socialize a bit more. You wouldnt have to worry about breaking your bubble constantly. What I could see happen is maybe we go back to level 3 but MBIE would approve what stores and services could reopen so you might get your Uber eats back up and running maybe cinemas open with strict social distancing rules like just before the lock down where they had one seat spacing rules etc. Schools could reopen on a by approval basis etc that sort of thing. I think if could work. If we cant go back to level 2 maybe they do an unofficial level 2.5 you know somewhere in between. Its level 2 but with some level 3 restrictions.




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  #2456755 7-Apr-2020 23:01
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Batman:

 

does anyone know if any of the "PROBABALE" cases eventually get confirmed or refuted? if so what are the numbers?

 

or do they remain "probable" till the end of time?

 

 

Same here. What is the conversion rate from probable to confirmed? Looking at all the graphs out there, it seems everybody equates them to confirmed; i.e. 100. Is that because the probable cases also have to self isolate & seek medical treatment?





Please keep this GZ community vibrant by contributing in a constructive & respectful manner.


 
 
 
 


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  #2456759 7-Apr-2020 23:48
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To put the performance of NZ, Australia & Chile into perspective, I have replaced Argentina in the plot below with Taiwan.  Taiwan is & was a lot more exposed to China than NZ and had its first case on 21 Jan, more than 5 weeks before New Zealand's first case.  To this day they have not implemented any significant lockdown on places of work or education, mainly just stringent travel restrictions, quarantine with heavy fines and restrictions on exports of masks and other medical supplies.  Wearing of masks has been mandatory on trains and intercity buses since 31 March.  That and fewer tests than NZ (not so necessary due to very low numbers of local cases - second plot below)

 

 

 

 

A couple of other points.  As at end of 6 April, Taiwan had a total of 373 cases, which equates to one fifteenth the per capita number of cases in NZ despite having had the virus more than 5 weeks earlier than NZ.  And that has nothing to do with the 'high' number of imported cases in NZ (43%).  Eighty six percent (324) of the current 376 confirmed cases in Taiwan were imported, double the NZ figure.  See Figure below from https://sites.google.com/cdc.gov.tw/2019-ncov/taiwan.  Just 52 'locally-acquired' cases in two and a half months.

 

 

 

 

Some details of measures taken by Taiwan are covered here https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/asia/taiwan-coronavirus-response-who-intl-hnk/index.html and in multiple other articles on the web.  Some of it may sound a bit draconian but so is our present situation, at a much larger cost.  

 

 


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  #2456765 8-Apr-2020 01:06
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mattwnz:  ... The death rate is a significantly higher percentage in OZ, than NZ, which as discussed as per the briefing in the last few days,countries with higher percentages of deaths, the testing is likely not capturing  a significant amount of  the cases. 

 

Australia has done more extensive testing than NZ.  With only one death, the death rate for NZ is meaningless, especially given that 3 weeks ago we only had 12 cases.  Australia (like Taiwan) had it first case some 5 weeks before NZ, so has had double the time for deaths to accumulate - significantly more so when allow 2 - 3 weeks(?) lag between infection and death. 

 

As per my plot above (#2456759), 2 weeks 2 days ago the accumulated 'per capita cases * days' exposure for Australia was much larger than the corresponding for NZ.  They also have a higher proportion of imported cases (66% as at 7 April) than NZ (43%). That is more people repatriated or returned from ships and hot spots overseas.

 

Australia's fatality rate (0.9% CFR-7) is low, and their testing rate per capita high by world standards - higher than any other country with a population of 10 million or more.  Higher than Italy, Germany, Singapore or South Korea.  For the reasons discussed above, NZ's fatality rate is meaningless at this point.


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  #2456768 8-Apr-2020 05:18
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DS248:

 

mattwnz:  ... The death rate is a significantly higher percentage in OZ, than NZ, which as discussed as per the briefing in the last few days,countries with higher percentages of deaths, the testing is likely not capturing  a significant amount of  the cases. 

 

Australia has done more extensive testing than NZ.  With only one death, the death rate for NZ is meaningless, especially given that 3 weeks ago we only had 12 cases.  Australia (like Taiwan) had it first case some 5 weeks before NZ, so has had double the time for deaths to accumulate - significantly more so when allow 2 - 3 weeks(?) lag between infection and death. 

 

As per my plot above (#2456759), 2 weeks 2 days ago the accumulated 'per capita cases * days' exposure for Australia was much larger than the corresponding for NZ.  They also have a higher proportion of imported cases (66% as at 7 April) than NZ (43%). That is more people repatriated or returned from ships and hot spots overseas.

 

Australia's fatality rate (0.9% CFR-7) is low, and their testing rate per capita high by world standards - higher than any other country with a population of 10 million or more.  Higher than Italy, Germany, Singapore or South Korea.  For the reasons discussed above, NZ's fatality rate is meaningless at this point.

 

 

Australia's larger per-capita accumulated testing appears to be largely a result of starting earlier, not sustaining a higher rate. In the past few days NZ has been testing around 2.5 times as many people per capita as Australia - half the number of daily tests, for one fifth the population.

 

New Zealand is also alone (as far as I can see, keen to be informed otherwise) in adding probable cases to confirmed cases for our reported total, which boosts the number around 25%. Australia is reporting confirmed cases.

 

Re the fatality rate, there is a lag but hospital admissions are a relevant leading indicator. Australia has around 9% of their current active cases in hospital, and nearly 3% in ICU. NZ has under 1.5% of current active cases in hospital.

 

Sources: health.govt.nz and health.gov.au


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  #2456769 8-Apr-2020 05:19
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GV27:

 

This is all looking pretty encouraging? The lock-down seems to be limited opportunities for community transmission so maybe we'll be in a position to return to something approaching normality soon

 

Zepanda66: Wouldnt surprise me at all if trump was trying to rush out Hydroxy as a treatment option just to get the economy going again.


There's a lot of work going on to build that feeling of optimism into the US markets - everything's up 'bigly' again today - building on Monday's gains.

 

Those feelings seem to be driven by an actual drop in the daily increase in US cases, Trump’s jawboning about “tremendous light at the end of the tunnel’ yesterday, and his continuous promotion of hydroxychloroquine as a 'cure' that was being held up by pesky 'scientific trials' - a holdup now bypassed by leaving the use of it up to doctor's discretion.

Clever people like JP Morgan’s global head of macro quantitative and derivatives strategy are being quoted - he expects a 'limited” re-opening of the (US) economy' in the next two weeks.
 
Of course as well as rays of hope in NZ there's actual good news in 'East Asia' and the 'Western' World. Australia's flattening the curve - most of the worst hit European countries appear to have passed their peaks, Norway, Denmark and Austria are making plans to exit lockdown conditions with schools and public places re-opening..

 

But what happens as soon as 'physical distancing' is abandoned, particularly in Western Countries during times such as the Easter long weekend - does Community Transmission suddenly spring back? Will we have to maintain personal separation for months? Wonder what a 're-opening' will look like?

And I just can't believe financial markets have fully priced in the potential of corporate earnings collapse since the coronavirus outbreak's virtually shut down the global economy.

The pandemic's forecast to lead to a loss in working hours equivalent to 195 million full time jobs - far more than the 2009 crash, according to the International Labour Organisation in a report published on Tuesday.

World Bank President David Malpass recently said “Beyond the health impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic, we are expecting a major global recession.”
The IMF’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva reckons "the world economy come to a standstill... it is way worse than the global financial crisis” of 2008-2009.

So 'normality' perhaps on the surface only. I'm sure NZ's (and the world's) economy has a reckoning coming. That might be a second crisis.


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  #2456772 8-Apr-2020 06:24
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ANglEAUT:

 

Batman:

 

does anyone know if any of the "PROBABALE" cases eventually get confirmed or refuted? if so what are the numbers?

 

or do they remain "probable" till the end of time?

 

 

Same here. What is the conversion rate from probable to confirmed? Looking at all the graphs out there, it seems everybody equates them to confirmed; i.e. 100. Is that because the probable cases also have to self isolate & seek medical treatment?

 

 

Im sure Dr A said one update, a while back, that if probables turn to confirmed, past probables drop by one, confirmed increases by one, and that wont be actively mentioned as is historical. Basically including probable new cases keeps the reality more correct, given that the vast majority of probables will test positive. 


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  #2456818 8-Apr-2020 07:21
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New York Times: Trump’s Aggressive Advocacy of Malaria Drug for Treating Coronavirus Divides Medical Community

...Day after day, the salesman turned president has encouraged coronavirus patients to try hydroxychloroquine with all of the enthusiasm of a real estate developer. The passing reference he makes to the possible dangers is usually overwhelmed by the full-throated endorsement. “What do you have to lose?” he asked five times on Sunday.

...If hydroxychloroquine becomes an accepted treatment, several pharmaceutical companies stand to profit, including shareholders and senior executives with connections to the president. Mr. Trump himself has a small personal financial interest in Sanofi, the French drugmaker that makes Plaquenil, the brand-name version of hydroxychloroquine.

...The professional organization that published a positive French study cited by Mr. Trump’s allies changed its mind in recent days. The International Society of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy said, “The article does not meet the society’s expected standard.” Some hospitals in Sweden stopped providing hydroxychloroquine to treat the coronavirus after reports of adverse side effects, according to Swedish news media.

...Mr. Giuliani has urged Mr. Trump to embrace the drug, based in part on the advice of Dr. Vladimir Zelenko, a self-described simple country doctor who has become a hit on conservative media after administering a cocktail of hydroxychloroquine, the antibiotic azithromycin and zinc sulfate.

...Giuliani said “When I finished Biden, I immediately switched to coronavirus and I have been doing an enormous amount of research on it,” ...“One of the things that a good litigator becomes, is you kind of become an instant expert on stuff, and then you forget about it,” he said

...The Food and Drug Administration, which has approved hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for malaria and lupus, issued an emergency order late last month allowing doctors to administer it to coronavirus patients if they saw fit. Mr. Trump said the federal government would distribute 29 million doses.

Dr. Fauci made his concern clear last week. “I think we’ve got to be careful that we don’t make that majestic leap to assume that this is a knockout drug,” he said on Friday on Fox News. “We still need to do the kinds of studies that definitively prove whether any intervention, not just this one, any intervention is truly safe and effective.”

The same day, Laura Ingraham, a Fox host, visited Mr. Trump at the White House with two doctors who had been on her program promoting hydroxychloroquine, one of whom made a presentation on its virtues, according to an official, confirming a Washington Post report.

The next day, Peter Navarro, the president’s trade adviser, who has been assigned to expedite production of medical equipment and become an advocate of the drug, upbraided Dr. Fauci at a White House task force meeting

Mr. Navarro defended his lack of medical credentials. “Doctors disagree about things all the time. My qualifications in terms of looking at the science is that I’m a social scientist,” he said on CNN. “I have a Ph.D. And I understand how to read statistical studies, whether it’s in medicine, the law, economics or whatever.”

...Some associates of Mr. Trump’s have financial interests in the issue. Sanofi’s largest shareholders include Fisher Asset Management, the investment company run by Ken Fisher, a major donor to Republicans, including Mr. Trump. A spokesman for Mr. Fisher declined to comment.

Another investor in both Sanofi and Mylan, another pharmaceutical firm, is Invesco, the fund previously run by Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary.

As of last year, Mr. Trump reported that his three family trusts each had investments in a Dodge & Cox mutual fund, whose largest holding was in Sanofi.

Several generic drugmakers are gearing up to produce hydroxychloroquine pills, including Amneal Pharmaceuticals, whose co-founder Chirag Patel is a member of Trump National Golf Course Bedminster in New Jersey and has golfed with Mr. Trump at least twice since he became president, according to a person who saw them.

...Dr. Daniel H. Sterman, the critical care director at NYU Langone Health, said doctors there are using hydroxychloroquine, but data about its effectiveness remained “weak and unsubstantiated” pending the study. “We do not know whether our patients are benefiting from hydroxychloroquine treatment at the present time,” he said.

New York City’s Health and Hospitals Corporation, which runs its public hospitals, is advising but not requiring doctors to use hydroxychloroquine based on a trial showing a decreased cough and fever with mild side effects in two patients, Dr. Mitchell Katz, who oversees the hospital system, said by email on Monday.

Dr. Roy M. Gulick, the chief of infectious diseases at Weill Cornell Medicine, said hydroxychloroquine was given on a case-by-case basis. “We explain the pros and cons and explain that we don’t know if it works or not,” he said.

Doctors at Northwell Health and Mount Sinai Health System are using it as well. At the Mount Sinai South Nassau County branch on Long Island, doctors have employed a regimen of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin “pretty much since day one” with mixed results, said Dr. Adhi Sharma, its chief medical officer.

“We’ve been throwing the kitchen sink at these patients,” he said. “I can’t tell whether someone got better on their own or because of the medication.”

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  #2456825 8-Apr-2020 08:10
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DS248:

 

 

 

 

 

Does anyone have a NZ version of this? Very interested to see the trend over time of imported cases from our lapse border measures.





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  #2456827 8-Apr-2020 08:24
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I would never have thought that the holiday spot/bach for Easter would be considered by anyone in level 4, but media raises it. Is that clickbait?  Surely no one thinks thats viable right now?


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