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dejadeadnz
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  #2457421 8-Apr-2020 14:51
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networkn:

 

You are talking about two different issues here. You are talking about how "bad" the restaurant industry is, and how many low quality hospo places there are, but they existed prior to the pandemic and with appropriate guidance could plan and potentially remain open afterwards as well, paying those people who work for them meaning those people will not become a burden on the Government/taxpayer in the short term. Without some idea of how the lockdown ends, how can they plan? Communication is the key here. They are asking for clear communication. Even if the news is bad, then people can plan

 

 

Nope. They are trying to use the COVID-19 pandemic, which has exposed and exacerbated the underlying issues across the industry, as a means to extract money and undue consideration from others when there are presently greater priorities. I accept that no matter how well-run you are, against the background of this crisis, one will need some help. But it's unfair and unrealistic to act like providers of such discretionary services ought to be given the priority that she wants and to make bland, unjustified statements like the government's "ongoing indecisiveness and lack of planning" when these people have also benefited from unprecedented levels of support, paid for by their fellow taxpayers.

 

And she's not just asking for clear communication. Did you listen to her whole spiel? I did. She demanded that the government as soon as possible deliver the right messaging that it's safe for people to go out and eat and spend. No!! The government should devote resources to fight the pandemic and when it is actually under control or eliminated, we can start investigating lower priorities like how to get pubs and restaurants going. Contingency planning and risk management is part and parcel of doing business -- this woman wants to use lots of public resources to help her members do that, whilst simultaneously crapping on others who are contributing to their support. 

 

And I don't find that acceptable.

 

 


 
 
 
 

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Ge0rge
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  #2457488 8-Apr-2020 15:23
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bmt:

If he has an inside source then he should say so. This is what he did say though:


MikeB4:


Just look at the various NZ press sites. The PM also advised same in her press conference.






A quick yarn from the General. Aimed at his subordinates but backs up what the PM said at her press conference today - wait, wait out, we're not putting soldiers on the streets yet.

Sorry @mikeb4, I feel at this stage your source may not have the good oil.

cshwone
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  #2457490 8-Apr-2020 15:25
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mattwnz:

 

Germany are doing a huge amount of testing, which is likely why their death toll is low.

 

 

I don't believe the death toll can be related to the amount of testing. If you get the virus and you die you add to the death toll. So the important factor in keeping the death toll low is isolation of the most vulnerable so they don't catch the virus. And the easiest way to do that is to lockdown everyone as we are doing.

 

The death rate due to the virus will certainly be affected by the number of tests. For the same number of deaths from the virus, the more you test, the lower the death rate.




MikeB4
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  #2457495 8-Apr-2020 15:30
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This is what I wrote....

 

"Deployment does not mean we will see armed soldiers patrolling or at check points or LAVs on the streets. But providing back up and logistics for the Police and Civil Defense."

 

So where in that did I say that NZDF will be manning check points?

 

 


msukiwi
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  #2457500 8-Apr-2020 15:34
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From Stuff: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/120903679/coronavirus-two-under-24hour-curfew-after-breaking-covid19-lockdown-rules

 

An idiot who repeatedly broke the lock down rules, said to the Judge:

 

"Butcher-Todd admitted he was aware of and understood the lockdown rules. When the judge asked why he was not abiding by the rules then, he replied: "I don't know, I'm an idiot.""

 

 

 

He certainly is!


Ge0rge
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  #2457502 8-Apr-2020 15:35
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MikeB4: Easter I believe is a major threat to the lock down and that is why the NZDF is being deployed this week.



The NZDF aren't being deployed in relation to an Easter threat any more than they have been since the days before level 4 began.

dejadeadnz
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  #2457510 8-Apr-2020 15:39
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I am normally one for being a stickler for precision etc but, to be frank, this petty debate is becoming really boring for those of us forced to wade through it. Can you please stop?

 

 




MikeB4
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  #2457513 8-Apr-2020 15:43
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dejadeadnz:

 

I am normally one for being a stickler for precision etc but, to be frank, this petty debate is becoming really boring for those of us forced to wade through it. Can you please stop?

 

 

 

 

Agreed 


ezbee
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  #2457514 8-Apr-2020 15:44
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We need to see this through and keep our stranglehold on Covid19.

 

Just take the big clusters below .
(I have to best guess what these are as the official Website just says, Workplace or Event Arrgh )

 

Marist College             84   added 7 in last 24 hours.               ( Spellchecker suggested Maoist College :-)   )

 

Wedding                     81            8           

 

St Patrick in Waikato    62            3       

 

Etc, 

 

Noting origins of these all date to "before the lock-down", and still creating new cases.

 

Add the post lock-down returnee risks, it only takes one or two with the "it can't possibly be me" mindset, to spawn a new set of clusters.

 

    Noting the recent case of a landlord attempting to self isolate in one of his occupied properties !!!,
    endangering them, and police and then going out and doing it again !!!!!

 

Remembering that Covid19 has advantage of time , as we are seeing effects of events , days and weeks later. 

 

Add to this the increase in cases that can't be attributed to origin.
So community transmission is a thing that we have not strangled the life out of yet.

 

Our testing while we are doing a great job to expand from nothing, with constrained resource, fighting the world for kits, swabs, chemicals.
Countries with more muscle and deeper pockets than us are looking to grab the same supplies.
Understand its far from ideal , so ways to go on this.

 

So wishing you all a quiet contemplative Easter.
Not a time for who can come up with most inventive self-rationalization to endanger others.

 

 


mattwnz
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  #2457515 8-Apr-2020 15:46
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cshwone:

 

mattwnz:

 

Germany are doing a huge amount of testing, which is likely why their death toll is low.

 

 

I don't believe the death toll can be related to the amount of testing. If you get the virus and you die you add to the death toll. So the important factor in keeping the death toll low is isolation of the most vulnerable so they don't catch the virus. And the easiest way to do that is to lockdown everyone as we are doing.

 

The death rate due to the virus will certainly be affected by the number of tests. For the same number of deaths from the virus, the more you test, the lower the death rate.

 

 

 

 

The mortality rate should be approximately proportional  to the actual number of people who have the virus, and I understand that the mortality rate ranges between 1-5%, unless the health system is overwhelmed, where it could be higher than under normal conditions.  There is info that some strains are more deadly than others, but that hasn't been discussed much in the NZ briefings.Also countries that have older populations may have higher mortality rates. Only a subset of the people that have the virus, are actually tested, so the size of that subset varies depending on the amount of testing that is done.

 

From what the Director General said, this would mean that those countries where the mortality rate is a lot higher, that it could indicate that many people who have it haven't been tested. At the moment NZs mortality rate is only 0.1% which is somewhat  similar to the normal flu, but obviously NZs figures are only a small sample to make any judgement. I think we also need to look at the hospitalization rate, because apparently it should be around 20% of people, based on what has happened in other countries.  I am not sure what NZs rate is, because I think the figures they release each day only state the number of people currently in hospital, and not the total that have needed hospital treatment, unless someone can point me to these figures. But I don't think we are at 20%

 

This is all why 'test test test' has been the recommendation by WHO for at least a month, as the more testing data we have, the better, in finding out who and where it is in NZ . IMO we will waste the lockdown opportunity to stamp it out, unless we know exactly all cases of this are, and we exit it prematurely.


frankv
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  #2457518 8-Apr-2020 15:51
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GV27:

"Doing your best" isn't just a blanket excuse for whether a response is appropriate is lacking in some way. 


I think her concerns were warranted given the talk of something like 1 in 5 hospitality businesses just not reopening after lockdown. That's a lot of jobs gone. 



Restaurants is well known as a fickle business to be in. I wonder how many of those 20% were at the Bauer point already... what's the turnover in the industry at the end of the summer tourist season? And rather than "talk of something like 1 in 5", how about an actual prediction, based on a survey? Select committee submissions are well known for people wanting something for the benefit of some downtrodden sector, which incidentally benefits the submitter greatly. And for doom and gloom predictions that never quite materialize.

I'd have more sympathy if the Restaurant Association was to actually suggest something concrete, rather than just "help our members as much as possible ". Can't actually think of anything concrete? Well, sit back and think about that for a moment. Because that's exactly what the government *has* to do.

mattwnz
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  #2457519 8-Apr-2020 15:56
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frankv:

Restaurants is well known as a fickle business to be in. 

 

 

 

It is the same with many households, who live paycheck to paycheck. As long as a household has a steady income stream it is fine. I imagine this is an event that many people didn't think could happen.  How many businesses have a rainy day fund. Although many business do shut down over Christmas for around this period of time, they do plan for that. 


debo
307 posts

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  #2457533 8-Apr-2020 16:09
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Fred99:           FWIW, as more small scale clinical trials are reporting that (Hydroxy)Chloroquine doesn't work, the President's supporters are flooding the interweb with character assassination of the medical researchers and institutions, even accusing them of child abuse blah blah BS.

 

Can you provide some links to those trials.  Ta


DS248
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  #2457534 8-Apr-2020 16:09
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mattwnz:   ... Germany are doing a huge amount of testing, which is likely why their death toll is low. eg they are picking up far more people who have it.   The director general of health did say a few days ago,  that in countries where the death toll is low, it is likely due to them doing a lot more and wider testing. Where the percentage is high, a significant number of people wouldn't be getting tested who have it. In the UK I was watching the BBC news and they had a doctor who said that they believed up to 40% of people in the UK had already had it but didn't show much or any symptoms, and he was all for herd immunity. It is interesting about the number of  asymptomatic, because that apparently makes up approximately 30% of cases, which would have to be added to the numbers in NZ to get a full picture, because the vast majority of those wouldn't have been tested in NZ.

 

Does anyone know how Australia's testing compares to NZ's, eg is there a website showing how much testing each country is doing? Testing is one of the keys in this.  

 

 

 

Germany has done fewer tests per capita than Australia though disparity is small; ie. 10,962 vs 12,184 per 1 million population currently. And for what it is worth, Italy has tested more per capita than Germany.  Yes, Australia's rate of testing has dropped in the last week.  So has South Korea.  Perhaps because fewer are presenting for testing as they managed gain control.

 

Germany's CFR-7 was low 3 weeks or so ago (<1%) but CFR is not reliable in the early stages, especially as the demographics can change a lot with exponential growth in cases.  At that stage their affected population was low on 70-79 and 80+ age groups relative to their total population.  The proportions for those age groups have now increased and Germany's CFR-7 is now 2.6%.  That is 2.5 times the CFR-7 for Australia (now increased to 1%).

 

You cannot interpret anything about the relative testing adequacy based on fatality rate without knowing the demographics of the COVID cases (& other factors such as whether the spread of disease is under control).  As per my earlier post in the data & analysis thread (#2452558), the higher proportion of 70+ year old patients in Italy is the biggest contributor to the discrepancy between the fatality rates for Italy and Germany (or was at 31 Mar).  And that was only minimally due to differences in the age structure of their populations (they are actually quite similar).  It is due to the fact that relatively a lot more older people in Italy were infected by COVID-19, whereas proportionately fewer 70+ year old people were infected in Germany.  The disparity between the two was large.  See plot I posted in #2451889.

 

Total tests and tests per million people are now given on the Worldometers website https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.  And elsewhere of course.


frankv
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  #2457541 8-Apr-2020 16:16
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mattwnz:

frankv:

Restaurants is well known as a fickle business to be in. 


 


It is the same with many households, who live paycheck to paycheck. As long as a household has a steady income stream it is fine. I imagine this is an event that many people didn't think could happen.  How many businesses have a rainy day fund. Although many business do shut down over Christmas for around this period of time, they do plan for that. 



I'll hazard a guess that many hospitality businesses close down or scale back operations about this time of year.

But the key thing is that they're arguing about money. Right now, and for another month or more, we're prioritizing people's lives. Restaurants are different from families. Ain't no one gonna starve if a restaurant goes broke in NZ. Restaurateurs might want to reflect on how much better their lives are right now here, than if they were running their restaurant in a place where cashflow has a higher priority, like New York.

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