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682 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2424968 21-Feb-2020 12:06
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Fred99:

 

Iran has apparently reported two cases - and two deaths.  Diagnosed post mortem.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/die-coronavirus-iran-fatalities-middle-east-200219171007605.html

 

 

Iran is now listed as having 5 cases and 2 deaths. That's the same number of deaths as Hong Kong. They are saying the victims did not have any contact with foreigners or with Chinese nationals.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/iran-confirms-coronavirus-cases-200220125104907.html

 

I'm wondering how many more undiagnosed cases they have.

 

In most parts of the Middle East it appears that the cases are from China or other foreign nationals. The one in Egypt is recovering.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51563039





#include <standard.disclaimer>


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Ultimate Geek

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  #2425089 21-Feb-2020 16:33
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alexx:

 

I'm wondering how many more undiagnosed cases they have.

 

 

Yes it's escaping. China may still get it under control, but there are many countries that won't have a chance of stopping the spread.

Already a couple of hundred infections through a Church in Daegu, Korea.
It's popped up in prisons in Shandong province.
A Tokyo businessman, coughing and with a fever travelled on a Tokaido Shinkansen bullet train.

Turns out it's more easily transmitted than thought, and just like norovirus can easily travel by a fecal-oral route.
That's maybe why it’s caused outbreaks on cruise ships with a similar intensity to that gastro virus..

So the places where it's not being reported (N Korea, Indonesia, Cambodia, Thailand, India..) may be where it's spreading undetected.


 
 
 
 


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Uber Geek


  #2425122 21-Feb-2020 18:23
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I suspect it is a lot more widespread in many countries, than is being reported, partly due to the time delay in the symptoms appearing. But also because it appears that border testing only appears to be testing those that actually ave a fever, rather than those who may have recently been infected and show no symptoms.  Once it hits these more third world countries, where they may not have the resources to test, it could be a problem. If that happens I wonder if China will relax their stance, as it would already be out of control.  


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  #2425134 21-Feb-2020 19:01
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mattwnz:

 

I suspect it is a lot more widespread in many countries, than is being reported, partly due to the time delay in the symptoms appearing. But also because it appears that border testing only appears to be testing those that actually ave a fever, rather than those who may have recently been infected and show no symptoms.  Once it hits these more third world countries, where they may not have the resources to test, it could be a problem. If that happens I wonder if China will relax their stance, as it would already be out of control.  

 

 

People can criticise China but they have massive numbers quarantined, and as from what I know, anecdotally, they may not like to but they in general want to. Whether thats due to the emperor saying it, or their cautious attitude, I don't know. If it spreads comparatively easily, it should be rampant in China, exponential deaths. But it isnt. Its still exponential but their response cuts off many hosts.  


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Ultimate Geek

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  #2425220 22-Feb-2020 04:00
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A woman who returned to Canada from Iran has presumptively diagnosed with COVID-19. Confirmation is due from the National Microbiology Laboratory.
She travelled only to Iran, so - assuming she didn't catch it in the airport - this could be a sentinel event of more widespread transmission there.

US Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Robert Redfield thinks it's here to stay.
They're just going to concentrate on slowing progression to give time for researchers to work on a vaccine and antiviral drugs

Can't see that helping the stressed, hungry and displaced of Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Sudan, DRC...




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  #2425223 22-Feb-2020 07:41
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Sidestep:

 

A woman who returned to Canada from Iran has presumptively diagnosed with COVID-19. Confirmation is due from the National Microbiology Laboratory.
She travelled only to Iran, so - assuming she didn't catch it in the airport - this could be a sentinel event of more widespread transmission there.

US Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Robert Redfield thinks it's here to stay.
They're just going to concentrate on slowing progression to give time for researchers to work on a vaccine and antiviral drugs

Can't see that helping the stressed, hungry and displaced of Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Sudan, DRC...

 

 

definitely spread via 5G





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2425225 22-Feb-2020 07:45
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tdgeek:

 

If it spreads comparatively easily, it should be rampant in China, exponential deaths. But it isnt. Its still exponential but their response cuts off many hosts.  

 

 

It's no longer exponential in China.

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  #2425245 22-Feb-2020 08:27
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frankv:

 

tdgeek:

 

If it spreads comparatively easily, it should be rampant in China, exponential deaths. But it isnt. Its still exponential but their response cuts off many hosts.  

 

 

It's no longer exponential in China.

 

 

 

 

Thats what I meant. It should be exponential, and while the spreading is still exponential by virtue of the R0, it has little opportunity to exploit that. Self quarantine is a large barrier. 


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Uber Geek


  #2425261 22-Feb-2020 09:06
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Sidestep:

 

A woman who returned to Canada from Iran has presumptively diagnosed with COVID-19. Confirmation is due from the National Microbiology Laboratory.
She travelled only to Iran, so - assuming she didn't catch it in the airport - this could be a sentinel event of more widespread transmission there.

US Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Robert Redfield thinks it's here to stay.
They're just going to concentrate on slowing progression to give time for researchers to work on a vaccine and antiviral drugs

Can't see that helping the stressed, hungry and displaced of Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Sudan, DRC...

 

 

4 deaths -  18 confirmed cases in Iran.  

 

19 cases -  one critical 6 serious in Italy. They haven't yet traced the person from China who probably brought in the infection.  The critical case is a 38yo man who got sick, went to hospital, was turned away/not tested, there are now three patients and 5 hospital workers infected, and 3 customers from the bar where the 38YO man worked infected.

 

Yes - according to China's reporting of China's efforts, they've slowed the spread.  That's taken travel restrictions on ~700 million people and complete lockdown of more than 50 million, and they won't allow WHO officials in.


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Uber Geek


  #2425419 22-Feb-2020 13:32
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A good Youtube channel, with the histories of various pandemics.

Good background for COVID-19. For example: Tuberculosis - A Ten-Thousand Year Battle


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Uber Geek


  #2425505 22-Feb-2020 16:08
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Fred99:

 

 

 

4 deaths -  18 confirmed cases in Iran.  

 

19 cases -  one critical 6 serious in Italy. They haven't yet traced the person from China who probably brought in the infection.  The critical case is a 38yo man who got sick, went to hospital, was turned away/not tested, there are now three patients and 5 hospital workers infected, and 3 customers from the bar where the 38YO man worked infected.

 

Yes - according to China's reporting of China's efforts, they've slowed the spread.  That's taken travel restrictions on ~700 million people and complete lockdown of more than 50 million, and they won't allow WHO officials in.

 

 

 

 

From what I read, the person may have been contagious with it for far longer than 14 days. Could be over a month. 

 

I am concerned that China won't allow WHO officials in. What would be the reason for that? 


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Ultimate Geek

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  #2425508 22-Feb-2020 16:29
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mattwnz:

 

I am concerned that China won't allow WHO officials in. What would be the reason for that? 

 

 

How do you lock down 50 million people, put entire Cities, Streets and families into forced quarantine with out breaking a few human right's laws.
At least human rights as seen from the western worlds point of view.


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Uber Geek


  #2425736 23-Feb-2020 07:57
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Just an update on what's happening here. Yesterday, we thought we would buy a small bottle of hand sanitiser and a face mask each. These turned out to be impossible to buy!

 

We got the same story from several different retailers, which is that people are already "panic buying" and that they don't know when, or even if, stocks of these items may arrive.

 

I hope this is only a temporary situation and I'm sure these are available somewhere, but it illustrates that people are already stockpiling them. So what should the Government do about this, particularly if this situation is widespread around the country?

 

I'm talking about the Wellington district, what's it like buying these items where you are? I haven't read all this thread so apologies if it's already been discussed earlier.

 

Edit: A neighbour has just told me that she recently bought a large bottle of hand sanitiser at the chemist, but it cost $35 for 500mL (ouch)! None of the small 50mL bottles were available.


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Uber Geek


  #2425740 23-Feb-2020 08:29
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frednz:

 

These turned out to be impossible to buy!

 

 

Same here (Chch).  Local Mitre 10 had a sign up saying they were out of stock of facemasks a couple of weeks ago, the pharmacy in the local Countdown doesn't have any alcohol-based hand sanitiser left on the shelves.

 

frednz:

 

it cost $35 for 500mL (ouch)! 

 

 

You can buy Vodka cheaper than that.  

 

(actually won't work very well - I think tests showed that alcohol content of a surface cleaner/sanitiser needed to be ~>80%)

 

FWIW, typical disinfectant (using quaternary ammonium compounds as the active) isn't very effective against the virus on surfaces.  There's a serious fire-risk using alcohol as a surface sanitiser.  Regular soap works well for washing your hands.

 

 


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Uber Geek


  #2425828 23-Feb-2020 10:49
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Regarding DIY hand cleaners, if you purchase mineralised methylated spirits from an industrial supplier, make sure it's dyed purple. It is suitable for a variety of cleaning applications. Clear colour means it's being sold as a solvent.

Getting it shipped is a little tough. Cannot be sent by NZ Post. Shipping incurs a Dangerous Goods fee. Only certain carriers can be used for South Island and rural delivery.

Obviously drinking it is poisonous. Keep it away from your nose and mouth. Keep it away from children. Call 0800 POISON if consumed. It is highly flammable, so be careful in the kitchen.

From the Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain 2019
...Mineralised methylated spirits ... is the only variety that may be sold in Great Britain for general use.

Proprietary Names
  • Esosan Gel (Esoform, Ital.)
  • Septanol (ICM, Singapore)
  • Skinman (Ecolab, Irl.)
  • Skinman Complete (Ecolab, Gr.)
  • Surgical Spirit BP 2019

    Adverse Effects

    Adverse effects are due chiefly to consumption of methylated spirits rather than its topical use as a disinfectant.

    Uses and Administration

  • Industrial methylated spirit, in a concentration of about 70%, is the usual form in which alcohol (Alcohol) is used for disinfection. It is applied externally for its astringent action, but mucous membranes and excoriated skin surfaces must be protected. It may be used for skin preparation before injection.

  • Methylated spirits may be used in the form of Surgical Spirit (BP 2019), a mixture of methyl salicylate (0.5% v/v), diethyl phthalate (2% v/v), and castor oil (2.5% v/v) in industrial methylated spirit.

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