2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2457571 8-Apr-2020 16:39

kingdragonfly:

And of course they are ignoring the "essential business" directive, which states "Natural health services are considered non-essential."

What makes you say that? The directive isn't to cease business entirely, it's to close your premises - if you can work from home, you are still permitted to. Not sure how they're shipping product though, I thought your couriers weren't transporting anything not essential?

mentalinc

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#2457581 8-Apr-2020 16:50

frankv:. Ain't no one gonna starve if a restaurant goes broke in NZ.

Except the owners who need the money their business generates to feed their own families...

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#2457583 8-Apr-2020 16:50

Kyanar:

What makes you say that? The directive isn't to cease business entirely, it's to close your premises - if you can work from home, you are still permitted to. Not sure how they're shipping product though, I thought your couriers weren't transporting anything not essential?

Right. But expecting couriers to decide what's essential is like asking a tobacco company to decide what's healthy.

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#2457584 8-Apr-2020 16:51

mentalinc:

frankv:. Ain't no one gonna starve if a restaurant goes broke in NZ.

Except the owners who need the money their business generates to feed their own families...

No! That's the whole point of our welfare system. NO-ONE starves.

mattwnz

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#2457585 8-Apr-2020 16:52

mentalinc:

Except the owners who need the money their business generates to feed their own families...

Can't they claim the wage subsidy too? But I guess it does depend on what their outgoings are.

GV27

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#2457586 8-Apr-2020 16:53

mentalinc:

frankv:. Ain't no one gonna starve if a restaurant goes broke in NZ.

Except the owners who need the money their business generates to feed their own families...

...Or the people who work there because suddenly there's a bunch of other restaurants who have folded and suddenly the only thing you have experience in has a massive labour supply glut?

Now ripple effect it to suppliers, commercial cleaners, etc.

But sure. Every business exists in its own little bubble and there's no domino effect from defaults whatsoever.

DS248

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#2457593 8-Apr-2020 17:01

heapsort: ... Re the fatality rate, there is a lag but hospital admissions are a relevant leading indicator. Australia has around 9% of their current active cases in hospital, and nearly 3% in ICU. NZ has under 1.5% of current active cases in hospital.

Sources: health.govt.nz and health.gov.au

I doubt hospital admissions are a good indicator of testing efficacy. The lower hospitalisation rate in NZ probably has more to do with our more limited financial and medical resources.

Singapore appear to at least initially hospitalise all confirmed cases. Once clinically well enough to be discharged from medical care COVID patients are discharged to isolation in nominated hospitals or the community isolation facility if they still test positive. As of 4 Apr, 42% of their covid-19 cases were still hospitalised. The remainder either discharged to isolation (32.5%), dead (0.5%) or discharged (no longer test positive - 25%).

That is a considerably higher level of care and containment than is provided in NZ; ie

NZ 1.5% of current active cases in hospital (your figure - may be a little different now)
vs Singapore 56% of current active cases are still in hospital (4 April)

That is in no way due to Singapore missing many more cases than NZ (their testing rate is higher than ours). But probably at least partly due to the fact that their GDP per capita is ~US$65,000 vs ours ~US$42,000 (2018 World Bank figures). And Australia ~US$57,000. Or, according to https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-per-capita/, US$94,000 in 2017 for Singapore.

Edit: Oops, correction. It was 42% of all cases - 56% of active cases

DarthKermit

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#2457594 8-Apr-2020 17:02

2000 new deaths from C19 in one day in the USA.

DS248

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#2457597 8-Apr-2020 17:05

mattwnz: ... I think we also need to look at the hospitalization rate, because apparently it should be around 20% of people, based on what has happened in other countries. I am not sure what NZs rate is, because I think the figures they release each day only state the number of people currently in hospital, and not the total that have needed hospital treatment, unless someone can point me to these figures. But I don't think we are at 20% ...

Hospitalization rate is even a looser metric for assessing testing efficacy than death rate. See my post (#2457593) a short while ago.

mattwnz

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#2457599 8-Apr-2020 17:06

frankv:

No! That's the whole point of our welfare system. NO-ONE starves.

I read that one country was looking at bringing in a universal wage to cope due to the longer term ramifications and knock on effects from this virus.

Handle9

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#2457601 8-Apr-2020 17:08

mattwnz:

frankv:

No! That's the whole point of our welfare system. NO-ONE starves.

I read that one country was looking at bringing in a universal wage to cope due to the longer term ramifications and knock on effects from this virus.

Citation?

mentalinc

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#2457603 8-Apr-2020 17:11

frankv:

mentalinc:

Except the owners who need the money their business generates to feed their own families...

No! That's the whole point of our welfare system. NO-ONE starves.

I'm not sure the system has been setup for business owners to pay all their other business expenses (it all seems to be focused on employee payments). and loans from banks.. the loans from banks are not free...

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tdgeek

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#2457604 8-Apr-2020 17:12

frankv:

I'll hazard a guess that many hospitality businesses close down or scale back operations about this time of year.

But the key thing is that they're arguing about money. Right now, and for another month or more, we're prioritizing people's lives. Restaurants are different from families. Ain't no one gonna starve if a restaurant goes broke in NZ. Restaurateurs might want to reflect on how much better their lives are right now here, than if they were running their restaurant in a place where cashflow has a higher priority, like New York.

Or where the lack of control of the virus means that they are screwed for a long long time. Its quite possible that restaurants can be back in business in a relatively short period of time. If you are in some countries, you'd have to park it for many many months.

mattwnz

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#2457618 8-Apr-2020 17:19

Handle9:

Citation?

I am not sure if this is the country I initially saw discussing this, but Spain is also looking at rolling out the same thing. I suspect quite a few countries will be looking into it. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-05/spanish-government-aims-to-roll-out-basic-income-soon

mattwnz

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#2457629 8-Apr-2020 17:41

tdgeek:

frankv:

I'll hazard a guess that many hospitality businesses close down or scale back operations about this time of year.

But the key thing is that they're arguing about money. Right now, and for another month or more, we're prioritizing people's lives. Restaurants are different from families. Ain't no one gonna starve if a restaurant goes broke in NZ. Restaurateurs might want to reflect on how much better their lives are right now here, than if they were running their restaurant in a place where cashflow has a higher priority, like New York.

Or where the lack of control of the virus means that they are screwed for a long long time. Its quite possible that restaurants can be back in business in a relatively short period of time. If you are in some countries, you'd have to park it for many many months.

The problem is that restaurants are usually a form of mass gathering, and as shown by the wedding down south which is a current cluster, it is a place were this virus can spread between people. IMO I think places like restaurants, schools etc where clusters have already occurred, can really only open once we have stamped it out, because otherwise we risk another lockdown/s in coming months IMO, and incurring the huge economic and social cost associated each time a lockdown occurs. The other thing is that a lot of people simply won't want to risk going to a restaurant due to the risk of catching the virus, so even if there hadn't been a lockdown.

Once we move to level 3 or 2, why can't restaurants just do deliveries instead? People and businesses have to adapt, and the fact is that unless we stamp it out, or a vaccine or successful treatment / cure is developed, NZ is not going to go back to how it was for a while. I get the impression that a lot of people think this will all be over in a few weeks once lockdown ends and the numbers fall, which is why people want to get out of lockdown as soon as possible. But any numbers are still delayed by up to 2 weeks due to the long incubation period

Lockdown isn't the problem, lockdown is about solving the problem.

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