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911 posts

Ultimate Geek

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  #2458361 9-Apr-2020 14:12
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If idiots keep this up:

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/120932936/coronavirus-police-turning-back-holidaymakers-trying-to-breach-lockdown-rules

 

We probably won't leave level 4!

 

Fine the people or better still quarantine them at THEIR expense, or they will keep trying!

 

(They can afford to holiday after all!)


27 posts

Geek


  #2458369 9-Apr-2020 14:17
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mattwnz:

freitasm:

 

Everyone arriving from today to be in quarantine for 14 days.

 

 

At long last ! The experts and public had been calling for this to happen for weeks..

 

 

 

The government looks to have had good practical advice and been following it to much better effect than most other countries so I expect this is one of the objectives they have had in mind from the beginning.

 

 

During today's briefing there was mention of 40,000 people coming back in a short space of time and there being no way to practically house these, and that numbers incoming now make other options workable.

 

 

We're not China and wouldn't stand for the Chinese approach of sticking everyone in cramped buildings or stadiums to spread the virus amongst themselves in order to protect the rest of the population. The flip side of that is that you have to wait for incoming numbers to be small before you can start to quarantine people in suitable hotels.

 

 

Trade offs between democratic and other systems of government.

 

 

On the whole I'm pretty happy with how quickly the government has responded considering the limitations they work under.

 

 

And very impressed with how diplomatic and stick-to-the-facts they have been when they do contrast our approach with other countries.

 
 
 
 


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Ultimate Geek

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  #2458371 9-Apr-2020 14:17
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cshwone:

 

tripp:

 

This is very very good news, do we have test numbers from yesterday?  If they are up to the same or more test numbers from the last few days the percentage drop is big.

 

 

From the stream it was over 3900. can't remember the exact figure.

 

 

COVID testing to 09/04/2020:

 

Date of       # 
Report     Tests 
=============
01/4        ~1800
02/4          2563
03/4          3446
04/4          3631
05/4          3093
06/4          3709
07/4          2908
08/4          4098
09/4          3990


3772 posts

Uber Geek

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  #2458372 9-Apr-2020 14:17
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dejadeadnz:

 

freitasm:

 

Everyone arriving from today to be in quarantine for 14 days.

 

 

This was the one big ideological blind spot in the government's response. With that plugged and provided people stay the course during level 4, we might yet be the first western country to manage to eliminate COVID-19. Fingers crossed.

 

 

I don't see why new arrivals are to be treated differently from someone already in NZ who has been assessed as a "probable" or "confirmed" case. But I guess that incoming numbers are down low enough where we *can* quarantine them.

 

And I think we would be the first country in the world to eliminate covid-19, not just the first western country.

 

 


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  #2458373 9-Apr-2020 14:18
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mattwnz:

 

freitasm:

 

Everyone arriving from today to be in quarantine for 14 days.

 

 

At long last ! The experts and public had been calling for this to happen for weeks..

 

 

I agree but a lost cause as we had no empty hotels weeks ago. Not enough to cater for thousands every day of the week. Now, we do. We could have done this a couple of weeks ago though. Although its become a low low number so not that relevant. However if we go to level 3, then it IS relevant

 

Not everything has gone right, but its super complex and it has to be done on the fly, seat of the pants stuff. Where we got to today shows its been done as well as we could have hoped. The higher risk from the imported cases were always kept track of, we always had every name ,address, and serial number. They didnt flow into the wilderness.


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  #2458375 9-Apr-2020 14:18
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mattwnz:

 

freitasm:

 

Everyone arriving from today to be in quarantine for 14 days.

 

 

At long last ! The experts and public had been calling for this to happen for weeks..

 

 

the PM said that this wasn't possible weeks ago as up to 40,000 people returned home and that was more than all the hotel/motel beds that we had in the country





Common sense is not as common as you think.




Mad Scientist
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  #2458376 9-Apr-2020 14:19
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Dingbatt:

 

I wonder how they are going to manage the asymptomatic and sub-clinical cases that could be sitting there waiting to be let out into the wider population.

 

How many people are there that have ‘a bit of a tickly throat’ that haven’t met the threshold to be tested? It is after all the start of the cold and flu season. It only takes one to become patient zero in a new outbreak. I’m assuming that’s what the second two weeks of the lockdown seek to achieve.

 

The authorities (quite rightly) crash dived the submarine into the lockdown and have then been trimming things out in the depths. The difficult part will be getting back to the surface.

 

I wish the antibody tests were widely available.

 

 

knowing full well that a single asymptomatic super spreader can start a chain reaction to crash the entire system, i don't want to get excited too early. 





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


 
 
 
 


10407 posts

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  #2458382 9-Apr-2020 14:24
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cshwone:

 

Dingbatt:

 

I wonder how they are going to manage the asymptomatic and sub-clinical cases that could be sitting there waiting to be let out into the wider population.

 

How many people are there that have ‘a bit of a tickly throat’ that haven’t met the threshold to be tested? It is after all the start of the cold and flu season. It only takes one to become patient zero in a new outbreak. I’m assuming that’s what the second two weeks of the lockdown seek to achieve.

 

The authorities (quite rightly) crash dived the submarine into the lockdown and have then been trimming things out in the depths. The difficult part will be getting back to the surface.

 

I wish the antibody tests were widely available.

 

 

The PM did say as well today that we will only move as far as Level 3 from where we are now and that this is a marathon not a sprint.

 

 

The true "asymptomatic" cases are being vastly exaggerated by a few who still believe that this disease isn't as lethal as evidence is showing it to be.
Many turn out to be "pre"-symptomatic.

 

The quick antibody tests aren't very accurate.  I believe that thousands of tests were carried out in Denmark in a not very well thought out test to try to quantify how many (asymptomatic) cases they had in the general community. They came up with a remarkable figure of 2.7% - thus equating to about 30 asymptomatic cases in the community for every confirmed case they have in the country. This was "proof" that we've overestimated the impact of the disease - according to numpties on Facebook etc.

Nobody - apparently including the authorities in Denmark who carried out the test bothered to check accuracy - maybe they thought that because those particular tests had (US) "FDA approval" that they were "accurate".  The US FDA approval gave approval for use of the tests specifically noting that they had a selectivity error allowing 4% false positives.  The whole exercise was a waste of time and money.  The tests that were going to be rolled out in the UK were even worse - 10% margin of error.

 

I posted a link yesterday to a study from China where they did lab analysis for antibodies (quantitative) from known recovered C-19 patients.  The results of that are extremely worrying, many (and especially young) showed very low levels of antibodies - some almost undetectable.  That's possibly not good news for hope for an effective vaccine or for herd immunity - or for the future of the quick antibody tests.  If they increase the selectivity of the tests to pick up those with low antibody levels, then the result is more false positives.

 

 


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  #2458388 9-Apr-2020 14:31
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vexxxboy:

 

mattwnz:

 

At long last ! The experts and public had been calling for this to happen for weeks..

 

 

the PM said that this wasn't possible weeks ago as up to 40,000 people returned home and that was more than all the hotel/motel beds that we had in the country

 

 

Exactly. And like all of us, they also were sent to lockdown to break the chain of community spread. They carried a higher risk, but were locked down anyway.


393 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2458391 9-Apr-2020 14:33
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it will be interesting to see the level 3 guidelines they release next week. And if there any different compared to the guidelines they had for the 2 days we were at level 3 last month. And I wonder what businesses they'll allow open? Will I be able to get my Maccas and KFC fix? I remember a lot of fast food places were still open at level 3 but a lot of them shifted to delivery only. 





http://www.speedtest.net/result/7315955530.png


1294 posts

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  #2458392 9-Apr-2020 14:33
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freitasm:

 

From CNN today:

 

 

 

Wow, you couldn't get a more favourable view of NZ and Ardern's leadership.


10407 posts

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  #2458394 9-Apr-2020 14:34
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frankv:

 

I don't see why new arrivals are to be treated differently from someone already in NZ who has been assessed as a "probable" or "confirmed" case. But I guess that incoming numbers are down low enough where we *can* quarantine them.

 

And I think we would be the first country in the world to eliminate covid-19, not just the first western country.

 

 

Most confirmed or probable cases in the community were already in an isolation "bubble" (as we all are) with extra requirements to try to reduce spread to others in their bubble - but not expected to be 100% effective.
New arrivals introduced to an (almost certainly disease-free) bubble is higher risk for "new" cases amongst family members.


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  #2458396 9-Apr-2020 14:37
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msukiwi:

 

If idiots keep this up:

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/120932936/coronavirus-police-turning-back-holidaymakers-trying-to-breach-lockdown-rules

 

We probably won't leave level 4!

 

Fine the people or better still quarantine them at THEIR expense, or they will keep trying!

 

(They can afford to holiday after all!)

 

 

I am totally getting sick of these people, I have not idea why people don't think the rules apply to them.  It's been all over the news about "stay at home" for Easter and we have been in lockdown for 2 weeks now.  We should fine and or quarantine them at their expense.  If they pick to quarantine at home then have police (or another approved agent) check up on them each day and charge them a "quarantine" fee of $300 each visit.

 

Or maybe a better idea is to start impounding their assets / transport.


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  #2458402 9-Apr-2020 14:45
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They know the rules. They will plan to say "just moving our bubble" so they wont be busted but have a shot getting out.


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#2458403 9-Apr-2020 14:47
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Yep, I knew the police would be catching retards trying to get away for an Easter break.


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