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4312 posts

Uber Geek


  #2425835 23-Feb-2020 11:20
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Food grade alcohol, 140 proof (70%) or better, could also be used.

Ensure that the alcohol content is 70% or better if diluting.

1431 posts

Uber Geek


  #2425837 23-Feb-2020 11:32
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Fred99:

 

You can buy Vodka cheaper than that.  

 

(actually won't work very well - I think tests showed that alcohol content of a surface cleaner/sanitiser needed to be ~>80%)

 

FWIW, typical disinfectant (using quaternary ammonium compounds as the active) isn't very effective against the virus on surfaces.  There's a serious fire-risk using alcohol as a surface sanitiser.  Regular soap works well for washing your hands.

 

 

 

 

Hi thanks, I see there are lots of articles on internet about using hand sanitiser vs hand washing with soap. I think it's useful to have some hand sanitiser with you for times when you don't have easy access to handwashing facilities. For example, you might have just been round the supermarket and have handled packages etc and want to quickly clean your hands before going home or eating lunch at a cafe etc. 

 

But if the virus spreads rapidly through NZ it will be very hard to dodge so it might pay to just relax and take your chances seeing only a low percentage of people actually die from it. Is it really worth self isolating for weeks and getting in hundreds of tins of food etc so that you attempt to avoid contact with the outside world? 

 

 

 

 


 
 
 
 


822 posts

Ultimate Geek

Lifetime subscriber

  #2425843 23-Feb-2020 12:21
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frednz:

 

But if the virus spreads rapidly through NZ it will be very hard to dodge so it might pay to just relax and take your chances seeing only a low percentage of people actually die from it. 

 

 

Depends on your age and health.

The largest study on COVID-19 cases to date has interesting results re who's susceptible and death rates..
No deaths in under 9 year olds
0.2% for those ages 10 to 39 (about twice the overall rate of the 'normal' flu)
0.4% for those ages 40 to 49
1.3% for those ages 50 to 59
3.6% for those ages 60 to 69
8.0% for those ages 70 to 79
80 and older, the death rate was 14.8%

Of course if cases are actually higher than have been officially reported, then death rates would lower than reported in this study.
If you're in a higher risk group you might be better off trying to avoid it until a viable vaccine arrives.


10120 posts

Uber Geek


  #2425959 23-Feb-2020 16:54
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Sidestep:

 

frednz:

 

But if the virus spreads rapidly through NZ it will be very hard to dodge so it might pay to just relax and take your chances seeing only a low percentage of people actually die from it. 

 

 

Depends on your age and health.

The largest study on COVID-19 cases to date has interesting results re who's susceptible and death rates..
No deaths in under 9 year olds
0.2% for those ages 10 to 39 (about twice the overall rate of the 'normal' flu)
0.4% for those ages 40 to 49
1.3% for those ages 50 to 59
3.6% for those ages 60 to 69
8.0% for those ages 70 to 79
80 and older, the death rate was 14.8%

Of course if cases are actually higher than have been officially reported, then death rates would lower than reported in this study.
If you're in a higher risk group you might be better off trying to avoid it until a viable vaccine arrives.

 

 

I have heard a theory that maybe toddlers / young children have quite high partial/cross immunity, because they're continually attacked by the coronaviruses amongst the viruses that cause colds.   Parents of young kids too - was pretty horrible when ours started pre-school, he'd come home with a sniffle and a fever and infect us adults - a couple of them were very ferocious too - high fevers, aching all over - flu-like.  If those viruses had been in circulation for a long time then I'd have probably had them as a kid too - but lost immunity. 

 

What I read was that while there'd been plenty of young kids test positive, the only ones that have got severely unwell were near newborns - which would make sense as they wouldn't have been exposed to coronaviruses like toddlers / older kids would have been.

 

The age spread from that study doesn't suggest it's killing predominantly through "cytokine storm" - even though leukopenia is a common symptom - (like SARS/MERS and probably the 1918 flu pandemic).

 

The figures in that study are also "case fatality" - so actually not final mortality figures (of the total cases, most were still unwell).


4312 posts

Uber Geek


  #2425960 23-Feb-2020 16:58
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Regarding DIY hand cleaner, methylated spirits, not a huge supply on Trademe. Just one trader.

Please see my previous post about usage and dangers. DO NOT DRINK. Keep away from your face.

Make sure any methylated spirits you buy is dyed purple.

https://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/SearchResults.aspx?&user_region=70&searchString=methylated+spirits&type=Search&searchType=all


1431 posts

Uber Geek


  #2426127 24-Feb-2020 07:21
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https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3051966/coronavirus-wuhan-quarantine-all-cured-patients-14-days-after

 

 

 

It seems that, even people who've already had the coronavirus may still carry the virus and be contagious.

 

From the above article:

 


The authorities in Wuhan on Saturday introduced 14 days’ mandatory quarantine for recovered 
coronavirus  patients, after some discharged patients again tested positive.

 


From Saturday, all patients who had recovered and been discharged had to be sent to designated places for two weeks of quarantine and medical observation, the city’s coronavirus treatment and control command centre said on Weibo, China’s equivalent of Twitter.

 


Wuhan and the rest of Hubei province, of which it is the capital, have continued to account for the vast majority of confirmed coronavirus cases in mainland China, where about 77,000 have been infected and more than 2,400 have died.

 


The new quarantine arrangements came after Chinese medical experts on the front line of the battle to contain the outbreak warned that recovered patients may still carry the virus and be contagious.


686 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2426129 24-Feb-2020 07:34
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Things are getting serious in Italy

 

They have 150+ cases and 3 deaths, 50,000 people in coronavirus hotspot areas are under lockdown with nobody entering/leaving towns. Football matches are cancelled, universities closed for a week in an attempt to control the spread.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51602007





#include <standard.disclaimer>


 
 
 
 


10120 posts

Uber Geek


  #2426132 24-Feb-2020 08:11
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alexx:

 

Things are getting serious in Italy

 

They have 150+ cases and 3 deaths, 50,000 people in coronavirus hotspot areas are under lockdown with nobody entering/leaving towns. Football matches are cancelled, universities closed for a week in an attempt to control the spread.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51602007

 

 

...and in Iran and Korea.

 

8 deaths now in Iran, 6 in Korea.  Korea has also got lockdowns.  China has officially tried to get people back to work, but chinese language papers in Hong Kong are reporting that there have already been outbreaks in factories that returned to work in Shenzen region - forcing quarantines. 

 

Xi has reportedly stated that the epidemic in China is the greatest threat / challenge that the country has faced (since 1949).

 

I understand that in affected areas in Italy, they've also closed schools.  That seems sensible if the suggestion that children may be asymptomatic carriers is true. It would pose major problems if we have to do the same here.

 

 


1273 posts

Uber Geek


  #2426149 24-Feb-2020 09:21
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lol I look away for a few days and bam! werido Korean cult ground zero for the outside of china blow up





Most problems are the result of previous solutions...

All comment's I make are my own personal opinion and do not in any way, shape or form reflect the views of current or former employers unless specifically stated 

1431 posts

Uber Geek


  #2426269 24-Feb-2020 12:30
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It seems that a 14-day incubation period for the virus can be too short and that it can be as long as 38 days! If this is the case, this presents a serious problem for authorities who are relying on a 14-day period of isolation for suspected cases as being sufficient. For example, see this article:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-updates/2020/02/22/72dd19de-54ea-11ea-b119-4faabac6674f_story.html

 

From the above:

 

There are some indications that the incubation period for the coronavirus could be longer than 14 days, with patients testing positive after much longer quarantine periods, researchers said. 

 

 Scientists were studying a case in China that suggested the incubation period for coronavirus could be longer than 14 days, potentially casting doubt on current quarantine criteria even as the epidemic moved into new regions.

 

Authorities discovered Friday that a 70-year-old man in Hubei was confirmed as infected after 27 days in isolation, while a man in Jiangxi province tested positive after 14 days of centralized quarantine and five days of isolation at home. On Thursday, authorities reported that a man in Hubei had tested positive for coronavirus after what appeared to be a 38-day incubation period with no symptoms.

 

 


16172 posts

Uber Geek


  #2426327 24-Feb-2020 14:22
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frednz:

 

 

 

But if the virus spreads rapidly through NZ it will be very hard to dodge so it might pay to just relax and take your chances seeing only a low percentage of people actually die from it. Is it really worth self isolating for weeks and getting in hundreds of tins of food etc so that you attempt to avoid contact with the outside world? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If someone is 70+ - 80+ in age, so potentially has a 10% -15% chance of dying if infected based on the current stats, and they have  higher chance of hospitalization, and our hospitals will already be stretched if not full by that stage, then many people will be isolating themselves.  But IMO it shouldn't make it's way to NZ if all screening and quarantining was comprehensive, and didn't we used to quarantine anyone coming into NZ many decades ago?. I am wondering if  global travel had stopped for 2-4 weeks, then wouldn't this have been able to be contained, and would the lost cost in productivity be more or less , than if it became a global epidemic? They are taking extreme steps in China, preventing a lot of internal travel.Other countries who have experienced spikes in cases are also now taking a more rigid stance on it, to try and prevent the spread. But I get the sense that a lot of people are resigned to it getting  to NZ and hence why things such as masks and hand sanitisers etc have all sold out, as there is a lot of fear out there. 


15132 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted
Subscriber

  #2426339 24-Feb-2020 14:39
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I see flippant statements about this here and I find it very annoying and unhelpful. I don't know if those making them are trying to come off gung-ho or cannot see past themselves. Many people in our community are at real risk due to existing medical conditions and suppressed immune systems. Maybe it would be better to keep ones flippant remarks to ones self.





Mike
Change Management Consultant
The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

He waka eke noa


10120 posts

Uber Geek


  #2426377 24-Feb-2020 15:41
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mattwnz:

 

I am wondering if  global travel had stopped for 2-3 weeks, then wouldn't this have been able to be contained, and would the lost cost in productivity be more or less , than if it became a global epidemic? They are taking extreme steps in China, preventing ta lot of internal travel.Other countries who have experienced spikes in cases are also now taking a more rigid stance on it, to try and prevent the spread. 

 

 

It was too little too late.  That's easy to say with hindsight.

 

Now NZ must do all we can to keep it out as long as possible.  The existing ban has been extended. The PM is awaiting advice from the Ministry of Health to see if the ban should be extended to cover other countries.

 

Professor Michael Baker (epidemiologist) gave a good summary on RNZ Morning Report:

 

Audio is here: https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018735462/covid-19-epidemiologist-on-virus-spread

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


16172 posts

Uber Geek


  #2426420 24-Feb-2020 15:53
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Fred99:

 

mattwnz:

 

I am wondering if  global travel had stopped for 2-3 weeks, then wouldn't this have been able to be contained, and would the lost cost in productivity be more or less , than if it became a global epidemic? They are taking extreme steps in China, preventing ta lot of internal travel.Other countries who have experienced spikes in cases are also now taking a more rigid stance on it, to try and prevent the spread. 

 

 

It was too little too late.  That's easy to say with hindsight.

 

Now NZ must do all we can to keep it out as long as possible.  The existing ban has been extended. The PM is awaiting advice from the Ministry of Health to see if the ban should be extended to cover other countries.

 

Professor Michael Baker (epidemiologist) gave a good summary on RNZ Morning Report:

 

Audio is here: https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018735462/covid-19-epidemiologist-on-virus-spread

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the link. It is  the right thing to be doing at this stage.


10120 posts

Uber Geek


  #2426717 25-Feb-2020 08:36
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“There is no official category (for a pandemic),” WHO spokesman Tarik Jasarevic said.

 

“For the sake of clarification, WHO does not use the old system of 6 phases — that ranged from phase 1 (no reports of animal influenza causing human infections) to phase 6 (a pandemic) — that some people may be familiar with from H1N1 in 2009,” he said.

 

Great work by WHO here.

 

The world is waiting/wondering why WHO hasn't declared a pandemic - WHO let slip that they haven't declared a pandemic because they quietly removed "pandemic" from their lexicon.

 

So to recap. 

 

The disease probably came from bats through an intermediate host, the emergence of the disease apparently from a market in Wuhan and symptoms (ARS etc) very like SARS.  Live captured wild animals were being sold in the market, they took samples but never traced it to a possible animal host, the samples that tested positive were apparently claimed to be from the seafood section. They sealed and disinfected the market -too late to go back and collect more samples. China supposedly clamped down on the sale of live wild animals and meat from wild animals after SARS. People from China as well as tourists visiting spent the following decade and a half posting distressing photos of live wild animals for sale in Chinese markets.  President Xi is a believer in Chinese Traditional Medicine - which includes using parts of wild animals.

 

China suppressed news for about 3 weeks after they had seen clear evidence of P2P transmission (the earlier cases may have also been P2P - or they may have been infected by contact with animals - but so far they haven't been able to trace where and how the disease emerged). 

 

China has an epidemic out of control, they clamp down on travel within China, quarantining 60 million people, restricting travel and public congregation for some 700 million others.  

 

WHO openly praises China's response (draconian but necessary - they didn't say this) in gushing terms. Meanwhile WHO finally declares an emergency - but suggesting it's not a global pandemic.  While praising China's response, they warn the rest of the world not to impose travel restrictions on travellers from China, just rely on airport screening etc.  Some countries do anyway (including NZ) and have Chinese Communist Party officials in their countries condemn those decisions - issuing veiled threats.  At that point in the timeline, it was already suspected that there were asymptomatic cases and "super-spreaders" and that airport screening wouldn't work.  As the epidemic had been going on for a couple of months in China, that should have already been known in China.

 

Without a credible WHO - what else is there?  Who could you trust?

 

 


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