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16168 posts

Uber Geek

  #2458930 10-Apr-2020 14:40
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It seems likely we will go to Level 3 on April 22. That worries me and Im sure the Govt is worried also. 

It worries me too. The current number of daily cases is where we were at around March 20th prior to lock down. But we're really don't know how this has spread in the last 14 days of lockdown due to the long incubation period and we don't appear to have been doing as much testing as many other countries as per World O meter.
Most badly affected countries that acted slowly appear to still be in lockdown with no indication as to how long they will stay in lockdown for. It appears in other countries social distancing may become the norm until a vaccine comes out. IMO it will be a huge mistake for the future of NZ to waste this level 4 lockdown by leaving it too early. We could end up joining those other countries with no chance of eradication if we leave to early. As we are still getting new cases after 14 days and as discussed in the media conference, there is transmission occurring inside people's bubbles. Some bubbles are large and made up of 10 or even 20 people so inside those bubbles the virus could remain active and transfer slowly between people in that bubble for a long time, which IMO may have been an error in not having a maximum bubble size. . I hope they are getting a international expert advice including those that managed the SARS outbreaks, as to when and how NZ should relax the lockdown. The tail shouldn't wag the dog. The worst thing IMO would be having to go back into lockdown in a month due to us making the error of going out of lockdown without having either eradicated it, or knowing where all the people are who have the virus. To use the Bluff wedding cluster as an example, as per the media conference today, many of those cases are spread throughout the country. While we are in lockdown it can only spread to other people in the bubble , which appears to have occurred. But once we leave lockdown it has the potential to mobilise the virus again, and we then risk a second wave which is occurring in some other countries like Singapore who were previously doing well.

109 posts

Master Geek

  #2458934 10-Apr-2020 14:46
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Apologies if this has been posted, I only peer into this thread occasionally: 


On the basis of these results the scientist advises that for walking the distance of people moving in the same direction in 1 line should be at least 4–5 meter,for running and slow biking it should be 10 meters and for hard biking at least 20 meters.


This isn't a published study and has no real detail published. It is more relevant than Karen on Facebook but not yet much more than a working theory. 



First attempt using the quote system, its not exactly WSIWG , hopefully it works ok.


Problem with these types of studies is the real world.


Wind or breeze , Turbulent airflows over houses , fences trees etc 


Thermal effects , that vary from shade to full sun .


General chaos , passing seagull. 


While I have nothing to site on this I expect that viral potency goes down as it dries out and subject to wear and tear on its travels.


So dependent on humidity and other conditions as well. 


I'm a bit suspicious in studies that are probably detecting viral DNA , can we actually practically measure viability of that ?


So I suppose its a case of being practical as possible , certainly vigorous exercise , singing , heavy breathing etc is more risky than not.


Once we get statistics on pelotons of cyclists that are otherwise in isolation coming down in mass we are probably a bit clueless. 






BDFL - Memuneh
67049 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

  #2458955 10-Apr-2020 15:14
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Meanwhile, in America:


"For the first time, in... ever. US health care workers being laid off during economic downturn - and pandemic. More than 43,000 health care workers had been laid off in the first month of the Covid-19 outbreak."

1431 posts

Uber Geek

  #2458970 10-Apr-2020 15:35
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The above article looks at why, in the past fortnight, South Africa has seen a dramatic, and unexpected slow-down in the daily rate of coronavirus infections.


From the article:


Health experts are warning that it is far too early to see this as a significant development, and worry that it could even trigger a dangerous sense of complacency.


It is nearly five weeks since the first confirmed Covid-19 case in South Africa, and until 28 March, the daily graph tracking the number of new infections followed a familiar, accelerating, upward curve.


But on that Saturday, the curve suddenly broke sharply - from 243 new cases in one day, to just 17. Since then, the daily average has settled at around 50 new cases.


However, it's good to see that South African health experts are warning that this could lead to dangerous complacency, and I think in NZ we need to be very careful of thinking we've already beaten the virus and relax too early.


564 posts

Ultimate Geek

  #2458989 10-Apr-2020 16:03
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Um based on the story I watched on the news maybe a week ago about the South African response and apparent apathy from the residents I would say they are lying or just not testing.

133 posts

Master Geek
Inactive user

  #2458994 10-Apr-2020 16:11
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All South Africans including myself, have had a TB shot.

/takes off tinfoil hat


109 posts

Master Geek

  #2459008 10-Apr-2020 16:27
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The articles on NZ are great.


Trend line in right direction.


We are certainly at the "end of the beginning" .


Testing will need massive boost to go to level 3, where you need more CT surveillance.


This needs more test kits , swabs ( especially nasal ), and more PPE for testers.


Plus continued co-operation from 99% of the population playing cautious and smart.


Good on ya Guys and Gals.


On the other side this is a bit worrying.


Finland joins England , Netherlands, Spain, and Turkey reporting faulty test kits and PPE.


We need to be absolutely Russian on this " Trust but Verify" , even if we are desperate for supply.


Strange this is not seen as an area to do war powers like local production expansion.


When you consider the volumes of money going into supporting the economy.



2343 posts

Uber Geek


  #2459021 10-Apr-2020 16:55
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It seems likely we will go to Level 3 on April 22. That worries me and Im sure the Govt is worried also. 



I am worried as well; told the guys at work that I might have to purchase a $80 box of disposable masks for use after lockdown ends as that is when I can see things getting worse.

376 posts

Ultimate Geek

  #2459029 10-Apr-2020 17:09
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I really hope today was just a blip but with a second death and a slight spike in cases i'm not as optimistic as others that we'll actually drop back to level 3 on the 22nd.


11313 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2459034 10-Apr-2020 17:34
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Welcome to the forum! Your quoting skills are excellent! On a minor note, the number of paragraph breaks in your posts could use just a little work.

703 posts

Ultimate Geek

Lifetime subscriber

  #2459037 10-Apr-2020 17:41
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At the media conference I thought she said that the 90 year old was one of the cases from the rest home where there is a cluster of cases?

Also it was confirmed in this media conference today that some probable cases are in clusters that haven't been tested such as rest homes. Where they can't test people without causing distress to those older people who may not understand what is going on. Eg some may have dementia




She was one of the patients moved from the rest home to Burwood Hospital, where they are being managed as a single bubble, and treated as if they are all infected.


As I understand it, the rest home is a dementia unit, and therefore all the moved patients will have a significant cognitive impairment.
The nice lady from Public Health at the Covid Briefing was going to great lengths to avoid saying that, presumably out of concern for families' feelings. Not surprisingly, some of the old and fragile folks would react poorly to having a swab shoved up their nose - it will be bad enough that they have had to be moved into a new 'home'. So they're all classed as "Probable" without putting them through the trauma of an incomprehensible and uncomfortable medical procedure.

16168 posts

Uber Geek

  #2459061 10-Apr-2020 18:16
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I really hope today was just a blip but with a second death and a slight spike in cases i'm not as optimistic as others that we'll actually drop back to level 3 on the 22nd. 





If it doesn't drop to just a few a day, by the end of next week, then I can see it being extended,  probably a week at a time. I am not all that happy by business groups lobbying for certainty, which IMO is putting undue pressure on the government and the decision makers. If it gets liftd too early, then IMO we can expect further level 4 type lockdowns in coming months as we get second and third waves, and that will be far worse IMO than just extending this one. We need to keep transmission well below 1, in order to kill off the virus and eliminate it. If any changes from level 4 raises it to over 1, then it spreads. Bill Gates video previously posted on here explains this well. 


This is an interesting article from the UK on Wednesday

16168 posts

Uber Geek

  #2459063 10-Apr-2020 18:20
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Just been out for a stroll here in Masterton for about an hour and for something to do whilst walking I counted the number of cars that went past.


In 55 minutes - 43 and that was not on a main road. Given that the only traffic today should be essential workers as the supermarkets are closed I hope this is not being replicated throughout the country.


As a microcosm of NZ it's very disappointing.





There are a significant number of people who are probably considered essential workers. The amount is probably a higher percentage in rural areas. In Canterbury there are apparently 120,000 people working as essential businesses, or 40% of the normal workforce. That is pretty high.



3174 posts

Uber Geek

  #2459067 10-Apr-2020 18:30
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God help us if this is what people consider Lockdown

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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