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BDFL - Memuneh
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  #2460071 12-Apr-2020 17:39
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Could we please leave anything coming from Fox News out of this thread? Likewise, Laura Ingraham is not a reliable source in any way. Please ignore anything she says. She's not worth the time you spent listening to her. Also Alex Jones. And Donald Trump. He's not a medical source. He's an ignoramus. Or any right-wing person that follows them.

 

Just don't. They are not in the business of helping anyone but themselves. 

 

Ignore them. 

 

I will repeat: IGNORE THEM. And do not post about them again. I have removed the previous post.





 

 

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  #2460079 12-Apr-2020 17:49
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For people not reading the data analysis thread, @frankv's graphs have been really useful for seeing the trend in NZ (perhaps post them to their own web page, one for each day?). Start here and scroll down to see the progress.

 
 
 
 


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  #2460088 12-Apr-2020 18:15
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I think this has been posted a couple of times already.

Reuters: South Korea reports recovered coronavirus patients testing positive again

South Korean officials on Friday reported 91 patients thought cleared of the new coronavirus had tested positive again.

Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), told a briefing that the virus may have been “reactivated” rather than the patients being re-infected.

South Korean health officials said it remains unclear what is behind the trend, with epidemiological investigations still under way.

The prospect of people being re-infected with the virus is of international concern, as many countries are hoping that infected populations will develop sufficient immunity to prevent a resurgence of the pandemic.

The South Korean figure had risen from 51 such cases on Monday.

Nearly 7,000 South Koreans have been reported as recovered from COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

“The number will only increase, 91 is just the beginning now,” said Kim Woo-joo, professor of infectious diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital.

The KCDC’s Jeong raised the possibility that rather than patients being re-infected, the virus may have been “reactivated”.

Kim also said patients had likely “relapsed” rather than been re-infected.

False test results could also be at fault, other experts said, or remnants of the virus could still be in patients’ systems but not be infectious or of danger to the host or others.

“There are different interpretations and many variables,” said Jung Ki-suck, professor of pulmonary medicine at Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital.
...

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  #2460092 12-Apr-2020 18:22
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freitasm:

 

Could we please leave anything coming from Fox News out of this thread? Likewise, Laura Ingraham is not a reliable source in any way. Please ignore anything she says. She's not worth the time you spent listening to her. Also Alex Jones. And Donald Trump. He's not a medical source. He's an ignoramus. Or any right-wing person that follows them.

 

Just don't. They are not in the business of helping anyone but themselves. 

 

Ignore them. 

 

I will repeat: IGNORE THEM. And do not post about them again. I have removed the previous post.


apologies and thanks for guidance and clarification 





iMac 27" (late 2013), Airport Time Capsule + Airport Express, iPhone7, iPad6, iPad Mini2

 

Panasonic Blu-ray PVR DMR-BWT835 + Panasonic Viera TH-L50E6Z, Chromecast Ultra, Yamaha AVR RX-V1085


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  #2460097 12-Apr-2020 18:40
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frankv:
Technofreak:

 

In the current climate the more tests you do it stands to reason the more infections or probable infections you will find. If you're doing fewer tests then it's highly probable that number is going to be less.

 



Worldometer says we have 276 infections per million population. Whilst that number depends on the amount of testing, let's assume it's in right ballpark, since we don't have large numbers of hospitalizations or deaths due to covid-19. Let's about double it to, for round numbers, 500 per million as the actual number of infected people. So random testing, you would expect to get 500/1000000 = .05% positive. So doing more tests at random won't significantly change the number of infections found, unless we do 100 times as many tests. You need to do 10,000 random tests to find 5 cases. What *will* increase the number of infections found is targeted testing based on contact tracing.

And that low infection rate also means that herd immunity isn't going to happen here, or anywhere else. Herd immunity requires something like 40% infection (or vaccination) rates. Given a best case fatality rate of about 1% (assuming plentiful ICU beds and ventilators), a 40% infection rate means 40% * 4,500,000 * 1% = 18,000 deaths in NZ. The most infected country (ignoring outliers like San Marino) is Iceland with about 5,000 cases per million population (I.e. about 0.5% infection rate). No one anywhere wants to have 100 times as many cases.

 

I like your posts but we imported probably a lot more per capita than most. And with a small sample, the clusters we have probably are very high per capita, as we have bugger all per capita.


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  #2460099 12-Apr-2020 18:46
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markhodgeNZ:

 

Interesting seeing the CCP propaganda machine starting to spread interpretations of research based on 160 samples (mostly from China) from a team of researchers from Cambridge, UK, and Germany as showing the virus started in the US: https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-genetic-network-analysis-provides-snapshot-of-pandemic-origins

 

Propaganda sites like the one below cater to this narative and of course the CCP is happy to spread similar claims through WeChat and other state controlled propaganda platforms while at the same time soft banning and hard banning accounts that discuss any naratives they don't want to spread. https://blog.hiddenharmonies.org/2020/04/11/interesting-study-published-in-pnas-tracing-the-evolution-and-migration-of-sars-cov-2-i-e-the-coronavirus/

 

You can get a good feel for how biased these 'news' sites are by checking out their other articles. It will be interesting to see how long it takes before there is a bit of analysis and push back on this.

 

 

Did Spanish flu start there? Or MERS? What about Ebola, West Nile, etc, etc? Avian flu wasn't that the US? I think you need to look at the World, and take account of how big some populations are before you resort to Xenophobia. China holds almost 1/4 of the global population, are they responsible for 1/4 of the sources and infections and deaths?


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  #2460117 12-Apr-2020 19:20
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tdgeek:

markhodgeNZ:

 

Interesting seeing the CCP propaganda machine starting to spread interpretations of research based on 160 samples (mostly from China) from a team of researchers from Cambridge, UK, and Germany as showing the virus started in the US: https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-genetic-network-analysis-provides-snapshot-of-pandemic-origins

 

Propaganda sites like the one below cater to this narative and of course the CCP is happy to spread similar claims through WeChat and other state controlled propaganda platforms while at the same time soft banning and hard banning accounts that discuss any naratives they don't want to spread. https://blog.hiddenharmonies.org/2020/04/11/interesting-study-published-in-pnas-tracing-the-evolution-and-migration-of-sars-cov-2-i-e-the-coronavirus/

 

You can get a good feel for how biased these 'news' sites are by checking out their other articles. It will be interesting to see how long it takes before there is a bit of analysis and push back on this.

 

 

Did Spanish flu start there? Or MERS? What about Ebola, West Nile, etc, etc? Avian flu wasn't that the US? I think you need to look at the World, and take account of how big some populations are before you resort to Xenophobia. China holds almost 1/4 of the global population, are they responsible for 1/4 of the sources and infections and deaths?

 

 

What on earth are you talking about? Did you reply to the wrong post?

 
 
 
 


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  #2460119 12-Apr-2020 19:25
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tdgeek:


Did Spanish flu start there? Or MERS? What about Ebola, West Nile, etc, etc? Avian flu wasn't that the US?


According to a documentary I saw recently, Spanish flu originated in the midwest USA (they did say what state, and even gave a name as the probable Case Zero), was carried to Europe on a troop ship, then spread to the French, English, Dutch, Germans, and Spanish. All the combatants suppressed news about it, so the best information on it was Spanish newspapers, hence the name.

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  #2460121 12-Apr-2020 19:36
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https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/414048/covid-19-updates-from-new-zealand-and-around-the-world-on-12-april

 

From the above:

 

As Covid-19 spreads around the world, it can be daunting keeping up with the information. For RNZ, our responsibility is to give you verified, up to the minute, trustworthy information to help you make decisions about your lives and your health. We'll also be asking questions of officials and decision makers about how they're responding to the virus. Our aim is to keep you informed.

 

Look back over RNZ's blog from 12 April to see what took place during a day when new Covid-19 case numbers fell again.

 

I'm quite impressed with the comprehensive coverage of  covid-19 news from New Zealand and around the world. Here's just one of the many news updates for 12 April:

 

Auckland City Mission says almost 400 homeless people have been taken off the streets in Auckland since the start of the lockdown. The head of the mission, Chris Farrelly, says the project is run by the Housing First collective, which has used government funds to provide motel units, and a team of social workers and health providers to provide support. The pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to offer the homeless long-term help, and many are having mental health, or addiction needs addressed. Farrelly asked that people living near motels, who aren't used to seeing these people about, be kind and understanding of their presence.


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  #2460124 12-Apr-2020 19:49
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New Zealand mentioned in New York Times last 24 hours

4 Germans Sheltered by New Zealand Family to Fly Home

WELLINGTON, New Zealand — Four German students say they're glad they'll finally get to fly home Sunday but also sad to say goodbye to the New Zealand family that sheltered them for 2 1/2 weeks during a nationwide lockdown.

The adult students had planned to be traveling around New Zealand when the country imposed the lockdown in an attempt to limit the spread of the coronavirus. They are among 12,000 German visitors in New Zealand who are returning on flights chartered by the German government.

'“It's been a different vacation,” said Julia Betz, 23. “But it's been a great experience anyway.”

Betz said she'd like to return one day to hike the Abel Tasman Coast Track, listed as one of New Zealand's 10 Great Walks.
...
Australians, New Zealanders Observe Easter Online and in Backyards

With the coronavirus capsizing Easter traditions, Australians and New Zealanders spent Sunday attending church services virtually, setting up camps in backyards and where the law and weather allowed – with physically distanced walks on beaches.

The pace of new coronavirus infections has slowed significantly in both countries in recent weeks, with New Zealand amidst wide-ranging lockdown measures and Australia's rigid enforcement of social-distancing rules.

...The popularity of New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison has risen, with both leaders hailed for their steps to contain the spread of the virus.
...
Infected Antarctic Cruise Passengers Return to Australia

SYDNEY — More than 100 Australian and New Zealand passengers of the Antarctic cruise ship the Greg Mortimer, most of whom infected by the coronavirus, arrived in Melbourne early Sunday on a flight from Uruguay.

The plane with 112 passengers, including 96 Australians, was boarded immediately after arrival by medical staff in hazmat suits. Thirteen of 16 New Zealanders were transferred to a charter flight home.

Virus Outbreak: The Latest

WELLINGTON, New Zealand — Catholic bishops in New Zealand wrote a special pastoral letter to worshippers stuck at home, comparing the country’s lockdown to the Biblical story of Easter.

“The future, for many, appears uncertain or even dire,” the letter read. “In the meantime, we are continuing to have the tomb experience of being locked down at home and we know, for many families, that this situation is becoming difficult and stressful.”

The letter also said the lockdown was giving people new insights.

“People have noticed families doing things together. The world has become quieter and we have noticed the beauty of nature,” the letter read. “This time has proved to be a reflective time enabling us to refocus or revision ourselves and how we live.”
...

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  #2460127 12-Apr-2020 20:17
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Interesting piece from Bloomberg on unlocking a lockdown.

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  #2460128 12-Apr-2020 20:20
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And as a followup, a thought for @freitasm: What about changing the way links are displayed to include the top-level domain after a link like some online forums do, to alert people to where the source mentioned in the link is coming from? That would distinguish "Covid19 update! (fox.com)" from "Covid19 update! (reuters.com)".

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  #2460141 12-Apr-2020 21:27
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I'm bowing out of this and any other threads and news about covid-19. I've heard enough and it's not doing my mental health any good.


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  #2460144 12-Apr-2020 21:41
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Nah, sorry - not relevant to COVID-19.





 

 

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  #2460159 13-Apr-2020 01:11
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tdgeek: ...  but we imported probably a lot more per capita than most. And with a small sample, the clusters we have probably are very high per capita, as we have bugger all per capita. 

 

 

 

I think you over rate the significance of the imported content of NZ cases relative to other countries.  NZ has far from the highest content of imported cases.

 

NZ imported content ~40%

 

Australia, 65% (https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance)

 

Hong Kong ~58%

 

Taiwan much higher (last I looked it was well over 80%)

 

And there will be a good few others


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