2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2460676 13-Apr-2020 17:05

neb: I've been to a number of ANZAC day services (see my previous post) and firstly they're not that massive an event, the biggest one in the centre of Auckland has maybe a few hundred people (not included the participants like bands, current servicemen, etc), and secondly the attendees are ex-military and military families, not random yobbos at a beach party. If they're told to stay home one would expect they'd follow the order.

I'm not quite sure what service in Auckland you go to but the main Auckland dawn parade normally gets up to around 20,000 people depending on the weather. Numbers in Wellington would be up to that depending on the year as well.

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neb

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#2460680 13-Apr-2020 17:13

Apropos of nothing, recently found out that the French doctor who was instrumental in the hydroxychloroquine fuss is rather notorious in France for being a bit of a quack, among other things he doesn't believe in control groups or randomisation in clinical trials and a bunch of other stuff. In other words his "clinical trial" missed all of the requirements for a double-blinded, randomized controlled trial (RCT). He also apparently selected who was given the drug, and removed anyone who died or went into an ICU from the results. There's a bunch of writeups on this e.g. in the Guardian, which does some of the best science reporting I've seen in the general media. Other trials have had to be discontinued or scaled back due to the cardiac and other side effects of the drug. There was one trial in Brazil which was trying to establish a safe dose where they got a 13% fatality rate, so higher than Covid19, from the side-effects of hydroxychloroquine use.

neb

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#2460683 13-Apr-2020 17:20

sbiddle:
I'm not quite sure what service in Auckland you go to but the main Auckland dawn parade normally gets up to around 20,000 people depending on the weather. Numbers in Wellington would be up to that depending on the year as well.

It was the dawn service at the cenotaph. I assume you're referring to the one later in the day, I'm pretty sure I'd have noticed 20,000 people milling around at 5am :-).

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#2460687 13-Apr-2020 17:31

How about, all who are caught breaking the lock down rules, lose their wage subsidy if they are getting one?

(Why should they get one if they are breaking the rules that the subsidy was set up to soften the consequences?)

Bet compliance would be a lot higher then.

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#2460691 13-Apr-2020 17:38

msukiwi:

How about, all who are caught breaking the lock down rules, lose their wage subsidy if they are getting one?

(Why should they get one if they are breaking the rules that the subsidy was set up to soften the consequences?)

Bet compliance would be a lot higher then.

In Oz they are issuing instant fines to people out in their car who haven't got a reason for being out. In some cases they are asking people to pop open their boot to check they have groceries. Have raised a significant amount already. If the fines are too, I suspect small some people may just take the risk if it can means a weekend away in their bach.

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#2460694 13-Apr-2020 17:42

neb: Apropos of nothing, recently found out that the French doctor who was instrumental in the hydroxychloroquine fuss is rather notorious in France for being a bit of a quack, among other things he doesn't believe in control groups or randomisation in clinical trials and a bunch of other stuff. In other words his "clinical trial" missed all of the requirements for a double-blinded, randomized controlled trial (RCT). He also apparently selected who was given the drug, and removed anyone who died or went into an ICU from the results. There's a bunch of writeups on this e.g. in the Guardian, which does some of the best science reporting I've seen in the general media. Other trials have had to be discontinued or scaled back due to the cardiac and other side effects of the drug. There was one trial in Brazil which was trying to establish a safe dose where they got a 13% fatality rate, so higher than Covid19, from the side-effects of hydroxychloroquine use.

good article here explaining it.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/hydroxychloroquine-trump/609547/

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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#2460698 13-Apr-2020 17:52

msukiwi:

How about, all who are caught breaking the lock down rules, lose their wage subsidy if they are getting one?

(Why should they get one if they are breaking the rules that the subsidy was set up to soften the consequences?)

Bet compliance would be a lot higher then.

Good plan, but it gets messy if you affect families etc. What about, "you have been caught, no fine, but hop in the car, we are off to a secured hotel for 14 days" "Your contribution is say $500 plus meals.

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#2460702 13-Apr-2020 17:56

mattwnz:

In Oz they are issuing instant fines to people out in their car who haven't got a reason for being out. In some cases they are asking people to pop open their boot to check they have groceries. Have raised a significant amount already. If the fines are too, I suspect small some people may just take the risk if it can means a weekend away in their bach.

Ok, I gave my suggestion above. Id be ok with fines if they have to be paid now, via mobile eftpos. No need to make the fine silly, like $15000, but say $500, but it HAS to be instant. Can't pay, thats fine I will drop you home, bring $500 to pick up your car. That way its not stupidly excessive, and its a PENALTY. None of this $5 a week BS

neb

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#2460705 13-Apr-2020 17:59

vexxxboy:
good article here explaining it.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/hydroxychloroquine-trump/609547/

One thing about the Atlantic, they're a good literary publication but they have a real phobia about Trump, so take their endless articles about him with a grain of salt. It's one thing to talk about Trump being an idiot when he's being an idiot, but the Atlantic have gone way beyond that.

vexxxboy

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#2460708 13-Apr-2020 18:02

neb:
vexxxboy:

good article here explaining it.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/hydroxychloroquine-trump/609547/

One thing about the Atlantic, they're a good literary publication but they have a real phobia about Trump, so take their endless articles about him with a grain of salt. It's one thing to talk about Trump being an idiot when he's being an idiot, but the Atlantic have gone way beyond that.

in this case , they are not far wrong

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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#2460717 13-Apr-2020 18:35

freitasm: So, at the end, Boris Johnson was saved by immigrants?

Ironic.

Not really, because he isn't against controlled immigration of the type we have here in NZ. Both of the nurses who helped him would have been able to work in the UK regardless of its membership of the EU; the fact that one is a kiwi is a clear demonstration of this.

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#2460718 13-Apr-2020 18:37

The Guardian - I warned of Trump’s attack on science. But I never predicted the horror that lay ahead.

12 April 2020

My own dire prophecies failed to adequately predict the future and today I see him as someone far more terrifying.

... This will undoubtedly be known as the year of a plague that changed everything.

It remains to be seen if it will also go down in history as the year when the enabler of death in the White House was finally held accountable by the American people. ...

Fair comment, although somewhat understated. 😕

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tdgeek

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#2460722 13-Apr-2020 18:41

Well worth a watch. Dr Ashley in a 30 minute Facebook Q+A

https://www.facebook.com/minhealthnz/videos/2663131057340406/

shk292

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#2460723 13-Apr-2020 18:43

neb:.

To be fair, the name is a bit of a pom-ism.

The background to this for those that don't know is that the Guardian had a poor proof-reading reputation, so many mis-typed words were to be found in its pages. Not the case now, but the name has stuck. The fact that The Guardian has registered grauniad.com is probably a good indication that it isn't the most perjorative of nicknames (ie lighten up).

neb

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#2460727 13-Apr-2020 18:47

shk292:
neb:.

To be fair, the name is a bit of a pom-ism.

The background to this for those that don't know is that the Guardian had a poor proof-reading reputation, so many mis-typed words were to be found in its pages. Not the case now, but the name has stuck. The fact that The Guardian has registered grauniad.com is probably a good indication that it isn't the most perjorative of nicknames (ie lighten up).

Specifically, I got it from a UK friend who's a lifelong Guardian reader, to the extent of getting a paper copy in NZ via some means I've never been able to figure out. She's always referred to it along the lines of "just saw in today's Grauniad..." or "the Grauniad just told me that...".

They also have what's probably the best general media article ever written on reporting a science result.

Yeah, OK, I'm a Guardian fan, so sue me :-).

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