2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2460953 14-Apr-2020 11:14

The 6 academics.

They might 'look' like they are 'somewhat' right in 2 weeks, that is yet to come.
Its a bit call 'now', though maybe TAB will open a book.

Based on how it looks for eradication , but then the article seems to say they say there will be no eradication ?
So once pressure is largely off its back to spreading , unless we stay at a level that controls peak to where our medical system can handle.
Seems very contradictory.

Everyone under 70 is safe , I can relax and go off to the beach.
How lucky we have a different CV19 than the one that claimed Ai Fen in Wuhan, and other well under 70's that died around the world.

No elimination we won't be going to join Australia's bubble to boost our economy, give tourism a lifeline.

I'd like to see more CT ( Contact Tracing ) , rather then CT ( Conspiracy Theory )
Did one of them actually say its just the Flu ! ?

Lucky I am not one of our medical and emergency staff putting their own lives at risk , or even a school bus driver .
We might ask how they feel making tremendous sacrifices for us , these guys might want to talk to some.

There is a way to faster easing.
With more Contact Tracing capability , a bit less privacy act quoting.
I'm not going all 1984 here just let public have some more info so people can come forward to help CT team.
More security in Test Kit , Swab (Right Kinds ), Reagent, new faster tests that are not approved yet ( There is eve a NZ invention here )
PPE to a level where we don't have to ration it , and many other things yes.
But we are a long way from this.
Taiwan built its own MFG , even staffing some lines from military, we are making no moves in this direction.

Debate seems to be moving to how green our shovel is rather than tools we need to open our economy , before we lift that shovel.

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Batman

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#2460967 14-Apr-2020 11:36

Someone said beginning of last week that "we" would be seeing mass testing rolled out. It's now a week later. Any sign of the mass testing?

SJB

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#2460972 14-Apr-2020 11:51

Poor reporting again from TVNZ. Scare headline today says unemployment could hit 25% in worst case scenario.

When you read the article the worst case scenario is a level 4 lockdown for 6 months. I don't think anyone is forecasting that with the daily numbers heading in the right direction and the borders locked down.

tdgeek

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#2460974 14-Apr-2020 11:51

Batman: Someone said beginning of last week that "we" would be seeing mass testing rolled out. It's now a week later. Any sign of the mass testing?

Define mass testing. I assume you mean was mass random testing?

What I can recall is that there is no need for mass random testing. If cases are low, you would need to test massive numbers to get any feel for it, he quoted 100,000. The intention is, once we are back to Level 3 is to mass test any local outbreaks that just popped up. The bigger issue is fast and high level of contact tracing for any new outbreak.

Another way to mass test is to mass swab and put 50 swabs in petri dish, so its one test for 50 people, rather than doing 50 tests. If it becomes positive, you then test those 50. But in answer to your question, Im not aware of any plan to mass test in NZ for the sake off mass testing

tdgeek

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#2460976 14-Apr-2020 12:00

I'm finding the select committee a hard watch. Its supposed to be a critique, accountability committee. But they find that everyhing is wrong. Praising the Australia response, then David Skegg tells them that Australia response isn't what they say it is. This committee needs to be renamed the Open the Shops Committee, as that's basically the underlying reason for all their questions.

And they need to fix their Zoom or Internet, its useless today

ezbee

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#2460978 14-Apr-2020 12:02

Batman: Someone said beginning of last week that "we" would be seeing mass testing rolled out. It's now a week later. Any sign of the mass testing?

It will be interesting to see if media push this harder at the press conferences, I hope they do
I expect our good intentions are frustrated by supply of:
Test kits, Swabs , Reagents, Skilled Staff, Machines that process , yep everything we compete globally for.
Have not seen numbers on the costs too, that might cool DHBs enthusiasm.

Seem to be no word about bringing in new antibody testing yet either.

This can get us into a faster exit, and lower level restrictions , but no sign of progress yet.

There are a number of alternative test systems, faster tests on the way, though it takes time to prove ( False Positives/Negatives ),
and then you have to scale production.

Tests in 1 hour , but not till July, and there are 15min ones being worked on.
https://focustaiwan.tw/sci-tech/202004130023

We have some skin in better testing game too, though,
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12313568

Other supporting technologies like Xray capability and automation of analysis can help too it seems.
https://focustaiwan.tw/sci-tech/202004130022

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#2460980 14-Apr-2020 12:10

ezbee:
Batman: Someone said beginning of last week that "we" would be seeing mass testing rolled out. It's now a week later. Any sign of the mass testing?

It will be interesting to see if media push this harder at the press conferences, I hope they do
I expect our good intentions are frustrated by supply of:
Test kits, Swabs , Reagents, Skilled Staff

It seems we have an answer

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12324530.

... Q: Bridges said there didn't seem much happening at the moment with sentinel testing, which Health Minister David Clark said would be rolled out "imminently" on March 18.

...A : sentinel testing would be rolled out soon.

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#2461013 14-Apr-2020 12:48

bmt: We also have a "Professor of experimental economics" in the group. Why should we listen to these people commenting on a global pandemic? Just because they have a PhD or are a Professor of this or that doesn't necessarily make them any more qualified to comment than you or I.

I don't know what experimental economics is, but I think that economists, in the sense that they study and measure how people make choices, could have valuable insights. However, all the economists seem to be interested in is the financial aspect of the crisis, and getting back to full productivity. To me, the economy is a model of how stuff works, how we get what we want. As such, it's important to how we deal with covid-19, but not an end unto itself.

I am appalled at the suggestion that these academics are saying this for the benefit of their employers. If it's true, then these guys are pretty craven and disgusting. They would be advocating the death of thousands of Kiwis to curry favour with their institutions or protect their own jobs. Whatever has happened to the principal of academic freedom? If it's false, then that's a terrible (actionable?) smear on someone's reputation.

frankv

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#2461017 14-Apr-2020 12:52

tdgeek:
And they need to fix their Zoom or Internet, its useless today

Sounds like you might be in Tauranga. ;)

tdgeek

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#2461018 14-Apr-2020 12:55

frankv:
tdgeek:

And they need to fix their Zoom or Internet, its useless today

Sounds like you might be in Tauranga. ;)

I did consider mentioning that in my post... :-)

Dang annoying tho, its interesting today.

GV27

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#2461068 14-Apr-2020 13:20

Fewer tests again Monday. Still getting broadly similar numbers. Approx 1600 tests for last few days returning high teens results with previous testing highs at around 4,500.

dejadeadnz

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#2461069 14-Apr-2020 13:23

frankv:

I am appalled at the suggestion that these academics are saying this for the benefit of their employers. If it's true, then these guys are pretty craven and disgusting. They would be advocating the death of thousands of Kiwis to curry favour with their institutions or protect their own jobs. Whatever has happened to the principal of academic freedom? If it's false, then that's a terrible (actionable?) smear on someone's reputation.

There's certainly no such suggestion on my part. You really need to comprehend what people are saying carefully before drawing inferences. What I said is that people should be wary of those so called six experts are saying because their institutions have been involved in some of the most outrageous slandering of the good faith responses to the crisis by our public officials. That's not the same thing as saying that those six people (I should further state that it's hard to understand why anyone should give any credence to what a professor of law is saying in this context - and I say this as a lawyer) are essentially parrots of their employers. What I am saying is that the UoA, AUT University, and Victoria University have little credibility when it comes to their attitudes and responses towards this crisis.

vexxxboy

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#2461070 14-Apr-2020 13:25

GV27:

Fewer tests again Monday. Still getting broadly similar numbers. Approx 1600 tests for last few days returning high teens results with previous testing highs at around 4,500.

he also said that it is low because people with respiratory problems and symptoms are not being found to be tested.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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#2461073 14-Apr-2020 13:31

I wonder if they should do random supermarket testing for people in the queues. like set-up pop-up station eg. WestGate/Albany Pak'n'Save for couple days. After move to another location. This way they will be testing community and not individuals who already have high possibility to have Covid-19. This would give a better picture if covid-19 has any community transmission. and based on these tests move to level 3/2.

helping others at evgenyk.nz

ezbee

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#2461078 14-Apr-2020 13:39

kobiak:

I wonder if they should do random supermarket testing for people in the queues. like set-up pop-up station eg. WestGate/Albany Pak'n'Save for couple days. After move to another location. This way they will be testing community and not individuals who already have high possibility to have Covid-19. This would give a better picture if covid-19 has any community transmission. and based on these tests move to level 3/2.

I agree if you have spare capacity go out rather than waiting for people to come to you.

The Supermarket workers Logistics , Factories, Picking , Packing, Trucking , Aged care etc could benefit from mobile pop up.
You know those people who don't want to be a bother or unsure given easy opportunity they may jump at a test.

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