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neb

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  #2461206 14-Apr-2020 16:14
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Meant to post this earlier, Ross Anderson has an interesting writeup on the issues involved with contact tracing, which we're going to need when we come out of lockdown. It's good to see that he's being consulted for the UK work on this.

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  #2461207 14-Apr-2020 16:14
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dejadeadnz:

 

Large Auckland cluster of infection linked to a stag party

 

Yes - so when the authorities were asking for people (before the lockdown) for eons to minimise unnecessary gatherings, some people decided that a bit of giggles were required and now we have lots of people sick as a result. 

 

Idiots.

 

 

 

 

 

 

When did it actually occur though, beucase I can't see any date mentioned anywhere? We noticed a private birthday party being held in tents on a large property where there were a large number of people about a week or two before lockdown, but it was apparently allowed at the time because  less than 100 people. But we were concerned it was being held in light of the virus, and the restrictions that were in place at that particular time, because we would have thought it would have been better to urge on the side of caution and cancel it. But they had things like caterers, tents to pay for etc. But these types of things have proven to be a breeding ground for this


 
 
 
 


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  #2461209 14-Apr-2020 16:16
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mattwnz:

 

Theoretically though, shouldn't we should be starting to see zero new cases, as we are now past the 14 day incubation period of the virus? I understand the 28  day level 4 lockdown period is to account for 2 full virus cycles. Although because we only enforced mandatory quarantine a few days ago, some of those new cases are likely from people returning to NZ, or from people existing people who were infected by them, inside their bubble.

 

 

You expanded and answered yourself... Cycles overlap, some different rates.





 

 

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  #2461211 14-Apr-2020 16:17
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A New Zealand article from yesterday that some people may find interesting.

 

There are big risks to the COVID-19 campaign if we move to LEVEL 3 too quickly without greatly improved contact-tracing. There is no way back if we get this wrong  

 

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/104514/there-are-big-risks-covid-19-campaign-if-we-move-level-3-too-quickly-without-greatly


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  #2461212 14-Apr-2020 16:23
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freitasm:

 

mattwnz:

 

Theoretically though, shouldn't we should be starting to see zero new cases, as we are now past the 14 day incubation period of the virus? I understand the 28  day level 4 lockdown period is to account for 2 full virus cycles. Although because we only enforced mandatory quarantine a few days ago, some of those new cases are likely from people returning to NZ, or from people existing people who were infected by them, inside their bubble.

 

 

You expanded and answered yourself... Cycles overlap, some different rates.

 

 

 

 

Yes, I was thinking out loud. But if this is the case should we be going out of level 4 lockdown when we are still getting new cases? I am wondering if that 2 week delay in forcing quarantining hasn't pushed out the level 4 lockdown by another incubation cycle. The PM did say from the beginning,  that anyone that breaches the lockdown, and causes the virus to spread to another bubble could end up extending the lockdown for everyone, which would be similar to someone entering NZ and going into someone else's bubble with the virus and infecting them, which is potentially what was occurring up till a few days ago, prior to the enforced quarantining.


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  #2461216 14-Apr-2020 16:28
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neb: Meant to post this earlier, Ross Anderson has an interesting writeup on the issues involved with contact tracing, which we're going to need when we come out of lockdown. It's good to see that he's being consulted for the UK work on this.

 

I'll read later, but in the select committee today, an issue was that ou contact tracing is too slow. Australia nails it in a few days, we are they reckon about 10, but MoH won't say. 


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  #2461238 14-Apr-2020 17:07
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In todays BoP Times paper edition (has not appeared in the online edition yet) there is an article in the "World" section titled: Scientists find virus attacks immunity. This article is an abbreviated reprint from of an article that originally appeared in the South China Morning Post - Coronavirus could attack immune system like HIV by targeting protective cells, warn scientists.

 

It makes for interesting reading with caveats regarding its source. But apparently the article is a layman's explanation of a peer reviewed article published this week in the Cellular & Molecular Immunology publication.

 

Synopsis

 

* Researchers in China and the US find that the virus that causes Covid-19 can destroy the T cells that are supposed to protect the body from harmful invaders

 

* One doctor said concern is growing in medical circles that effect could be similar to HIV





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  #2461242 14-Apr-2020 17:10
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8 more today from Marist College is telling. 
This is going to make people very cautious about opening schools , and knock on for returning other businesses. 

 

Note In 2018 there were 7015 teachers aged 65 or older, a leap from 3070 in 2008.
Can't find latest numbers for those over 50 , but teachers look like a very vulnerable group. 

 

One only has to look at Otago University Mumps outbreak shortly before lock-down.
They were 'very' lucky that it was only Mumps not CV19 ( Imagine the Matamata St Patrick's Day event multiplied by x ).
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/mumps-outbreak-university-otago-alongside-two-coronavirus-cases-in-dunedin

 

Hopefully we see a drop to zero on new cases in next few weeks we can go to whatever the new Level 3 will look like.
Then we can plan for level 2 , which will probably be a lot different from its initial concept by the time we get there. 

 

On Economics , I see a great need for innovation at the big end of Economics , how to freeze an economy and save it from damage.
A disaster version of Bankruptcy that is no fault, and provide more support to share loss to allow a business to trade out.

 

 

 

 


Devastation by stupidity
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  #2461246 14-Apr-2020 17:15
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FineWine:

 

In todays BoP Times paper edition (has not appeared in the online edition yet) there is an article in the "World" section titled: Scientists find virus attacks immunity. This article is an abbreviated reprint from of an article that originally appeared in the South China Morning Post - Coronavirus could attack immune system like HIV by targeting protective cells, warn scientists.

 

It makes for interesting reading with caveats regarding its source. But apparently the article is a layman's explanation of a peer reviewed article published this week in the Cellular & Molecular Immunology publication.

 

Synopsis

 

* Researchers in China and the US find that the virus that causes Covid-19 can destroy the T cells that are supposed to protect the body from harmful invaders

 

* One doctor said concern is growing in medical circles that effect could be similar to HIV

 

 

I read the article (not the research paper). This damned virus just gets scarier and scarier. As a high risk individual, I may never dare leave home again. How does it help me that most young people get mild cases? How does it help them, for that matter? The virus will  probably just keep coming back until it finally gets them, too.

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


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  #2461253 14-Apr-2020 17:20
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ezbee:

 

8 more today from Marist College is telling. 
This is going to make people very cautious about opening schools , and knock on for returning other businesses. 

 

Note In 2018 there were 7015 teachers aged 65 or older, a leap from 3070 in 2008.
Can't find latest numbers for those over 50 , but teachers look like a very vulnerable group. 

 

One only has to look at Otago University Mumps outbreak shortly before lock-down.
They were 'very' lucky that it was only Mumps not CV19 ( Imagine the Matamata St Patrick's Day event multiplied by x ).
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/mumps-outbreak-university-otago-alongside-two-coronavirus-cases-in-dunedin

 

Hopefully we see a drop to zero on new cases in next few weeks we can go to whatever the new Level 3 will look like.
Then we can plan for level 2 , which will probably be a lot different from its initial concept by the time we get there. 

 

On Economics , I see a great need for innovation at the big end of Economics , how to freeze an economy and save it from damage.
A disaster version of Bankruptcy that is no fault, and provide more support to share loss to allow a business to trade out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

from what i understand its called the Marist College cluster because that is where it started and it started with a family that went there after returning from overseas, and then spread out into the community from contacts to the original family, not everybody that got the virus went to the college and they arent all teachers and pupils. So im not sure why the age of teachers is relevant in this case.





Common sense is not as common as you think.


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  #2461260 14-Apr-2020 17:34
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ezbee:

 

8 more today from Marist College is telling. 
This is going to make people very cautious about opening schools , and knock on for returning other businesses. 

 

Note In 2018 there were 7015 teachers aged 65 or older, a leap from 3070 in 2008.
Can't find latest numbers for those over 50 , but teachers look like a very vulnerable group. 

 

One only has to look at Otago University Mumps outbreak shortly before lock-down.
They were 'very' lucky that it was only Mumps not CV19 ( Imagine the Matamata St Patrick's Day event multiplied by x ).
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/mumps-outbreak-university-otago-alongside-two-coronavirus-cases-in-dunedin

 

Hopefully we see a drop to zero on new cases in next few weeks we can go to whatever the new Level 3 will look like.
Then we can plan for level 2 , which will probably be a lot different from its initial concept by the time we get there. 

 

On Economics , I see a great need for innovation at the big end of Economics , how to freeze an economy and save it from damage.
A disaster version of Bankruptcy that is no fault, and provide more support to share loss to allow a business to trade out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is not just that. But parents are not going to want to send their kids back to school either, if there is a chance they will contract the virus. IMO schools are like events, where lots of people are in close proximity. I was always catching some illness when I was at school, and is why some schools now require students have vaccinations before going. . Before the lockdown, many parents were had stopped sending kids to school. I recall one class was missing about half of their students.

 

IMO if we exit lockdowns and there is still the chance of contracting this virus, then many people are still going to continue to self isolate and not go to restaurants , cafes or events. The fact that so many people are abiding by the rules without much complaint IMO shows this.

 

From what I have heard, Australia have been  looking into hibernating their economy https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-27/coronavirus-business-hibernation-australia-responds-to-pandemic/12095738

 

I think we can learn some things from Oz, because although their mortality rate is higher per million, they seem to be doing somethings right. Although we don't need too many more cases for us to exceed their mortality rate. It is interesting, because they did have community transmission before NZ, and their lockdown  isn't as full as NZ's appears to be




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  #2461286 14-Apr-2020 18:14
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ezbee:

 

8 more today from Marist College is telling. 
This is going to make people very cautious about opening schools , and knock on for returning other businesses. 

 

Note In 2018 there were 7015 teachers aged 65 or older, a leap from 3070 in 2008.
Can't find latest numbers for those over 50 , but teachers look like a very vulnerable group. 

 

 

8 more from Marist College or from the Marist cluster?

 

How can you get 8 new infections 2 weeks into a shutdown? unless they were living with infected people ...





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2461294 14-Apr-2020 18:29
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Batman:

 

How can you get 8 new infections 2 weeks into a shutdown? unless they were living with infected people ...

 

 

 

 

I hope that is the case, and they were just infected by people inside their own bubble. However the MOH should be able to see if anyone of those newly infected people have not followed level 4 lockdown. I wonder if they will publicly tell us, if any cases haven't followed the level 4 lockdown requirements. But this just goes to show how right the NZ Government were, to enter lockdown when they did, and to close schools. I am so glad they did move relatively early on this.


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  #2461300 14-Apr-2020 18:38
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Press release:

 

 

An immediate student support package announced today in response to Covid-19 will assist students financially to continue their studies, Education Minister Chris Hipkins says.     

 

“Covid-19 is impacting students’ ability to financially contribute to and continue their studies. They are facing additional personal costs associated with study in a different way while having fewer opportunities to work to support their study,” Chris Hipkins said.

 

“The Government wants to give certainty to students as soon as possible that they can continue to be engaged in their education and will be supported adequately until such time that tertiary education providers can put in place alternative ways of delivering teaching and learning.

 

“Today, we are announcing a domestic tertiary student package to:

 

  • help cover extra costs, by increasing the student loan amount available for course-related costs for full-time students from $1,000 to $2,000, on a temporary basis;
  • continue support payments for students unable to study on-line for up to 8 weeks
  • make technical changes to ensure that:

     

    • where students receive partial tuition fee refunds in 2020 because their course has been discontinued due to Covid-19, this will not affect their future entitlement to student loans
    • where students are unable to complete a course of study in 2020 due to Covid-19, this will not affect their entitlement to Fees Free tertiary study. 

“Today’s package means students who cannot access their courses on-line will continue to receive their student loan payments as normal throughout the four-week lockdown period, and for up to four weeks afterwards. This flexibility is already available for student living allowances.

 

“Domestic students who are enrolled in full-time tertiary study can access these supports from tomorrow, Wednesday 15 April.

 

“These pragmatic measures, coupled with the support MSD can already give, will provide an immediate response to the financial impact Covid-19 is having on tertiary students. It will support students to stay engaged in their education.

 

“This package provides relief to students straight away while we adapt to the immediate challenges posed by our response to COVID-19.

 

“We are also working on a second package of changes to prepare the system for significant growth in participation in key strategic areas as greater numbers of New Zealanders are expected to look to retrain and some industries need bigger workforces.   

 

“The three student loan changes will come from the Covid-19 Response and Recovery Fund and the impact on Fees Free payments can be met within existing baselines within Vote Tertiary Education,” Chris Hipkins said.

 

The cost of the package is $35 million in operating funding and $98 million in capital expenditure.

 

Who does this package apply to?

 

It applies to all fulltime domestic students studying at university, polytechs, or private training establishments this year whether they are enrolled already or planning to enrol.

 

What do students have to do to apply for support?

 

Information will be available from StudyLink (MSD), the Ministry of Education and their provider.

 

Do students have to extend their allowance or loan?

 

No, students will be able to opt-out if they do not want to increase their loan.

 

What additional support is available for students’ mental health needs?

 

Students can access mental health support services through their providers. The way these services are delivered may have changed, for example interviews may now be online or by phone. Students should talk to their providers regarding how to access these services.

 





 

 

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  #2461310 14-Apr-2020 18:59
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Batman:

 

ezbee:

 

8 more today from Marist College is telling. 
This is going to make people very cautious about opening schools , and knock on for returning other businesses. 

 

Note In 2018 there were 7015 teachers aged 65 or older, a leap from 3070 in 2008.
Can't find latest numbers for those over 50 , but teachers look like a very vulnerable group. 

 

 

8 more from Marist College or from the Marist cluster?

 

How can you get 8 new infections 2 weeks into a shutdown? unless they were living with infected people ...

 

 

Good point Batman.

 

Though with the restrictions on early testing until recently , and young people not showing firm signs.
Could have 2nd and 3rd generation transfer before you get a case that can get tested and confirmed. ?

 

Our contact tracing is way behind, and I suspect this is a biggie here.  So they get added when they are found ?
Thus silence on how ours compares to Australia's quick tracing or Singapore etc.


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