2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2426923 25-Feb-2020 13:46

Personally I think that the risk of this spreading is pretty high so I'm updating my emergency supplies at home - food (human and pet), prescriptions etc. I think one of the biggest issues may not be the virus itself but more the affect of any government or self imposed lockdown and mass sickness affecting daily services like transport and shopping. Both my wife and I can easily work from home so if it starts to spread I will just opt for that as much as possible.

I definitely won't want to go to a supermarket, doctors office or pharmacy if New Zealand starts to be badly affected.

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frankv

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#2426936 25-Feb-2020 14:18

Fred99:

frankv:

Assuming the numbers are accurate.

Why would the Chinese Communist Party want them to be accurate? It's probably better for them to tweak the figures. Nobody from outside is looking and they've done it before - they just need to be careful about covering their tracks.

I'm trying to see how the CCP benefits by tweaking the figures. If they understate the figures, then other countries will be less stringent in their precautions, and Covid19 spreads. But it will still be 100% clear where it started, and that they've lied.

frankv

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#2426938 25-Feb-2020 14:23

tdgeek:

What you will find is that other countries may show a very clear exponential growth, where as China's has been relatively linear.

In terms of new cases, China's growth was exponential, but now it is linear. In terms of total infections, China is now decreasing (new cases < recovered+deceased).

I agree though, that the risk now is from the exponential growth in other countries.

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#2426940 25-Feb-2020 14:27

frankv:

I'm trying to see how the CCP benefits by tweaking the figures. If they understate the figures, then other countries will be less stringent in their precautions, and Covid19 spreads. But it will still be 100% clear where it started, and that they've lied.

CCP doesn't care about the world. They can fix everything. Does Putin care about the West?

CCP cares about its image (ego) it portrays to its citizens. It's a dictator. It wants (needs) the people to think highly of them. They will do whatever is required to maintain public confidence. Most Chinese citizens think their government is god. Nothing you can say to those people can change that view.

Because, CCP.

tdgeek

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#2426942 25-Feb-2020 14:31

frankv:

tdgeek:

What you will find is that other countries may show a very clear exponential growth, where as China's has been relatively linear.

In terms of new cases, China's growth was exponential, but now it is linear. In terms of total infections, China is now decreasing (new cases < recovered+deceased).

I agree though, that the risk now is from the exponential growth in other countries.

Yes, I did ingore the earlier periods as that should be exponential, it seemed to be steady since. I just dont see the new countries quaranting as much but Italy certainly seems to have gotten onto that. For NZ the Govt should have plans in place to encourage and support self quarantine. Food delivery support for supermarkets, giving the masses good information, and stay home dont flood doctors and hospital unless you are vulnerable . This thread has comments about how we cant cope with hospital beds, well, many of us just need to ride it out, being in hospital probably is of little help for the healhty ones

All assuming the worst happens off course, it may not

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#2426943 25-Feb-2020 14:32

frankv:

f they understate the figures, then other countries will be less stringent in their precautions, and Covid19 spreads. But it will still be 100% clear where it started, and that they've lied.

You have a lot to learn about the world, my friend. If you do not lose control your people, everything else can be fixed. Saudi can kill an American journalist, lie about it, and you see, everything is fixed now. We are still buying oil from Saudi, are we not? We are not accusing them of murder or deceit, are we? In terms of the virus, the WHO are praising them every hour are they not?

mattwnz

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#2426944 25-Feb-2020 14:32

tdgeek:

Given that China has locked itself away, and that many countries have all but closed the border, my concern is elsewhere. As few, if any countries will be able to lockdown as well as China has, and that is the danger. What you will find is that other countries may show a very clear exponential growth, where as China's has been relatively linear. Once the single at risk country, becomes 25 at risk countries, each with exponential growth, we may as well just give up and push hard for a vaccine.

I have had the sense from the media, that they were resigned early on that this wasn't going to be able to be contained, and the public have been conditioned via various articles, to accept that. I had read that one country is racially profiling people using face recognition, which is going to the extreme. But the justification was that extreme measures had to be used in extreme situations like this, in order to protect the health of everyone. IMO many countries haven't done enough, partly because it is unprecedented in modern times. But it it had been a disease like Ebola I think more would have been done to lock down borders earlier. IMO Self isolation is a bit of a waste of time when there are o real standards to follow, and what is stopping someone who is self isolated walking down to the supermarket to buy food, which they will need anyway.

It is something that is likely going to cause major global problems if it spreads, including financial problems, and all allegedly because of a small market in China selling infected bat/animal parts for medicine , or something like that. I find it ironic that we now have all these terrorism rules at the airports, but a disease can get through these without detection, which can potentially cause more significant death and harm. It is probably why germ warfare is seen as such a powerful thing. I can see that being the next form of terrorism, and it may change the free travel access we have been spoilt with for years.

tdgeek

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#2426945 25-Feb-2020 14:33

Batman:

frankv:

f they understate the figures, then other countries will be less stringent in their precautions, and Covid19 spreads. But it will still be 100% clear where it started, and that they've lied.

You have a lot to learn about the world, my friend. If you do not lose control your people, everything else can be fixed. Saudi can kill an American journalist, lie about it, and you see, everything is fixed now. We are still buying oil from Saudi, are we not? We are not accusing them of murder or deceit, are we? In terms of the virus, the WHO are praising them every hour are they not?

Is China saying it did not start in Wuhan?

tdgeek

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#2426951 25-Feb-2020 14:40

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

Given that China has locked itself away, and that many countries have all but closed the border, my concern is elsewhere. As few, if any countries will be able to lockdown as well as China has, and that is the danger. What you will find is that other countries may show a very clear exponential growth, where as China's has been relatively linear. Once the single at risk country, becomes 25 at risk countries, each with exponential growth, we may as well just give up and push hard for a vaccine.

I have had the sense from the media, that they were resigned early on that this wasn't going to be able to be contained, and the public have been conditioned via various articles, to accept that. I had read that one country is racially profiling people using face recognition, which is going to the extreme. But the justification was that extreme measures had to be used in extreme situations like this, in order to protect the health of everyone. IMO many countries haven't done enough, partly because it is unprecedented in modern times. But it it had been a disease like Ebola I think more would have been done to lock down borders earlier.

It is something that is likely going to cause major global problems, including financial problems, and all allegedly because of a small market in China selling infected bat/animal parts for medicine , or something like that. I find it ironic that we now have all these terrorism rules at the airport, but a disease can get through these without detection, which can potentially cause significant death and harm. It is probably why germ warfare is seen as such a powerful thing. I can see that being the next form of terrorism, and it may change the free travel access we have been splt with for years.

These outbreaks are common. China, Middle East, Australia, USA/Mexico. Spanish Flu, and all the many others. SARS was slow to spread, so it burnt out as hosts in range dried up, buit it was more deady. if this one wet thru a high school, all we might hear os that the flu is high this year. One kid in the news hardly had any effect more than a slight cold. But it spreads more. From what I gather with the swine flu, USA did bugger all, wrote the deaths off to common flu, so I feel we have got better this time round as has China. But yes, business will suffer. Sharemarket down 3% today, here, and down globally today

Sidestep

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#2426952 25-Feb-2020 14:40

tdgeek:

Is China saying it did not start in Wuhan?

It's not just China saying it likely didn't start in the Seafood Market.

tdgeek

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#2426954 25-Feb-2020 14:49

Sidestep:

tdgeek:

Is China saying it did not start in Wuhan?

It's not just China saying it likely didn't start in the Seafood Market.

Very interesting, thanks

It states the matket was closed. It was levelled! Wife is from Wuhan, thats what her rellies told her. Thats a pity as thats possible ground zero and its gone, and no doubt severely dettoled

mattwnz

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#2426963 25-Feb-2020 15:06

tdgeek:

These outbreaks are common. China, Middle East, Australia, USA/Mexico. Spanish Flu, and all the many others. SARS was slow to spread, so it burnt out as hosts in range dried up, buit it was more deady. if this one wet thru a high school, all we might hear os that the flu is high this year. One kid in the news hardly had any effect more than a slight cold. But it spreads more. From what I gather with the swine flu, USA did bugger all, wrote the deaths off to common flu, so I feel we have got better this time round as has China. But yes, business will suffer. Sharemarket down 3% today, here, and down globally today

Isn't swine flue now just part of the annual flus that go around? We didn't do a lot to stop that getting in, probably partly because it wasn't that lethal. But we don't want this to become an annual flue, because it has a high mortality rate, especially with older people. I guess it could increase turnover in resthomes, which could be good for rest home shareholders, but that isn't a good thing. I was speaking to someone who was i the forestry sector, and they are affected by this already. People will lose jobs, but many have large mortgages on their overpriced houses to pay. So this sort of thing has many knock on effects. It is a bit of a house of cards.

tdgeek

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#2426966 25-Feb-2020 15:14

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

These outbreaks are common. China, Middle East, Australia, USA/Mexico. Spanish Flu, and all the many others. SARS was slow to spread, so it burnt out as hosts in range dried up, buit it was more deady. if this one wet thru a high school, all we might hear os that the flu is high this year. One kid in the news hardly had any effect more than a slight cold. But it spreads more. From what I gather with the swine flu, USA did bugger all, wrote the deaths off to common flu, so I feel we have got better this time round as has China. But yes, business will suffer. Sharemarket down 3% today, here, and down globally today

Isn't swine flue now just part of the annual flus that go around? We didn't do a lot to stop that getting in, probably partly because it wasn't that lethal. But we don't want this to become an annual flue, because it has a high mortality rate, especially with older people. I guess it could increase turnover in resthomes, which could be good for rest home shareholders, but that isn't a good thing. I was speaking to someone who was i the forestry sector, and they are affected by this already. People will lose jobs, but many have large mortgages on their overpriced houses to pay. So this sort of thing has many knock on effects. It is a bit of a house of cards.

It may well be part of todays flus, that happens. The article was written by an American, and he stated that USA did nothing, and wrote some huge figure off as flu deaths, just in the USA. Which is way worse than COVID-19. Which begs the question, lets ignore COVID-19 as its just a pimple in the winter flu game? Is it even worth news? Going by Swine Flu it doen't really register. That was his point, but also that China is actively fighting this outbreak

tdgeek

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#2426969 25-Feb-2020 15:19

mattwnz:

I was speaking to someone who was i the forestry sector, and they are affected by this already. People will lose jobs, but many have large mortgages on their overpriced houses to pay. So this sort of thing has many knock on effects. It is a bit of a house of cards.

Yes, we are all linked. When you buy a Pinky Bar, you are paying many people, who are paying many people, and so on. We were going up to Wuhan in April. Not now, but we will, so our airfares will still contribute to the economy, but they won't contribute to todays salaries in todays supply chain for that trip. Thats a bad situation

mattwnz

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#2426971 25-Feb-2020 15:22

tdgeek:

Yes, we are all linked. When you buy a Pinky Bar, you are paying many people, who are paying many people, and so on. We were going up to Wuhan in April. Not now, but we will, so our airfares will still contribute to the economy, but they won't contribute to todays salaries in todays supply chain for that trip. Thats a bad situation

It will probably be one of the safest places to be :) When I went to Japan, I was surprised to see the high number of people with masks on in winter to prevent the spread of colds and flu. But I do wonder if we won't now see more of that here.

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