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  #2463685 16-Apr-2020 18:49
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I confess I am not at all confident about coming out of level 4. I cannot see how it will work while we are still getting new cases. Even 1 or 2 new cases per day risks a new blow out of cases. Singapore is experiencing another blow out of cases.




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  #2463689 16-Apr-2020 19:13
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MikeB4: I confess I am not at all confident about coming out of level 4. I cannot see how it will work while we are still getting new cases. Even 1 or 2 new cases per day risks a new blow out of cases. Singapore is experiencing another blow out of cases.

 

Understandable, but there are some differences. Singapore didn't have a harsh lockdown, you may have seen the Kiwi resident on the news. They didn't want people to fatigue if they had harsh measures. It seems they wanted it under control only. Cases were steady and low, crept up a bit, now have taken off, blaming overseas travellers and complacency. "Authorities there are blaming residents returning from overseas – and growing complacency among the community." 

 

Unlike us they had no strict lockdown, and they also have incoming traveller issues, two points we ticked off. Today we had 15 cases, but 11 were in known clusters. That leaves 4 nationwide that are being checked, plus with cases tested up over the last two days, its promising.

 

I skimmed through this article, it shows to me we have been more thorough and early, and still are. Border is near shut now, fully locked down

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12324356

 

They tested randoms at Queenstown supermarket today, lets see what that gives. That will be regular.

 

An important 5 days coming up, till decision day


 
 
 
 


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  #2463690 16-Apr-2020 19:14
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MikeB4, 

 

Delaying the decison to 2 days before the end of this lockout gives time for much more data to come in.

 

Level 3 is looking more like Level 4 lite , so still quite tight restrictions unless you are a surfer.
I'm sure the last bit will come back to bite the government as other activities will look say hey we are no less dangerous than surfing.

 

Much like you can't herd cats , seems you can't herd surfers !

 

I think its been a nice touch that we did not go heavy handed with instant $1000 fines like some countries.
Just give some warnings and save sanctions for the repeat and taking the piss offenders.  

 

We buy time for more solid trends in data, and Level 3 is not such a big step that its huge risk while we sort Level 2 rules.

 

Its been lovely to see stories of some commercial Landlords offering businesses rent holidays , or reductions to just cover rates and fixed expenses, good on them.
For the others ................... 


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  #2463693 16-Apr-2020 19:25
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MikeB4: I confess I am not at all confident about coming out of level 4. I cannot see how it will work while we are still getting new cases. Even 1 or 2 new cases per day risks a new blow out of cases. Singapore is experiencing another blow out of cases.

 

 

 

I am not confident either. The fact is that the virus has spread to other people during level 4 lockdown, and we are still getting new cases nearly 3 weeks, despite the incupation period being upto 2 weeks, which IMO means that we are not yet at the stage of eliminating it yet. Level 3 is talking about merging bubbles and increasing the number of people in them which means the virus has a longer chain of people to spread along, when we still appear to have spread occurring in existing bubbles. 

 

The thing is that at the press conference at 1pm, the PM did say that if cases start to increase again while in level 3, that we may then need to go back into level 4. If we go back into level 4, it will likely  be another 4 week lockdown period minimum again, which will be 8 weeks in total, and potentially more than 3 months in this heavily restricted period.

 

However if we extended level 4 to 6 weeks, and don't get any new cases in 2 of those  final weeks, apart from new cases from returning travelers who should be in quarantine, then IMO we have a good chance of eliminating it from New Zealand with no new cases popping up, and then getting out of level 3 faster as well.

 

But it seems that the government is under huge pressure from all directions to get us out of level 4 after 28 days. But the fact is that UK is in a similar lockdown to NZ after going down teh herd immunity route, but they have some more restrictions than we have in level 4. eg they are limited to 1 hour outside to exercise. Australia is also in level 3.5 for months possibly 6 or more , and there are calls in some states wanting to move to NZs level 4 system due to concerns they have over there. Australia numbers based on their hospitalizations don't look anywhere near as good as NZs, and they appear to have cases not yet discovered, based on their relatively high hospitalization rate compared to NZs. I would be very concerned if we open our borders to Australia, without a 14 day quarantine being required.


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  #2463694 16-Apr-2020 19:25
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ezbee:

 

MikeB4, 

 

Delaying the decison to 2 days before the end of this lockout gives time for much more data to come in.

 

Level 3 is looking more like Level 4 lite , so still quite tight restrictions unless you are a surfer.
I'm sure the last bit will come back to bite the government as other activities will look say hey we are no less dangerous than surfing.

 

Much like you can't herd cats , seems you can't herd surfers !

 

I think its been a nice touch that we did not go heavy handed with instant $1000 fines like some countries.
Just give some warnings and save sanctions for the repeat and taking the piss offenders.  

 

We buy time for more solid trends in data, and Level 3 is not such a big step that its huge risk while we sort Level 2 rules.

 

Its been lovely to see stories of some commercial Landlords offering businesses rent holidays , or reductions to just cover rates and fixed expenses, good on them.
For the others ................... 

 

 

Well said.

 

Its been made VERY CLEAR today that Level 4 will be used if needed. Do people want that? No. A bit of freedom, will help us all stick to the usual safety measures. Thats the key. 




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  #2463695 16-Apr-2020 19:27
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Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2463696 16-Apr-2020 19:31
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Another concern is the new rules for level 3 are more complex than level 4. I big chunk of the population did not understand level 4 simple rules it all points to a shambles for level 3.




Mike
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The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

He waka eke noa


 
 
 
 


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  #2463700 16-Apr-2020 19:35
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mattwnz:

 

MikeB4: I confess I am not at all confident about coming out of level 4. I cannot see how it will work while we are still getting new cases. Even 1 or 2 new cases per day risks a new blow out of cases. Singapore is experiencing another blow out of cases.

 

 

 

I am not confident either. The fact is that the virus has spread to other people during level 4 lockdown, and we are still getting new cases nearly 3 weeks, despite the incupation period being upto 2 weeks, which IMO means that we are not yet at the stage of eliminating it yet. Level 3 is talking about merging bubbles and increasing the number of people in them which means the virus has a longer chain of people to spread along, when we still appear to have spread occurring in existing bubbles. 

 

The thing is that at the press conference at 1pm, the PM did say that if cases start to increase again while in level 3, that we may then need to go back into level 4. If we go back into level 4, it will likely  be another 4 week lockdown period minimum again, which will be 8 weeks in total, and potentially more than 3 months in this heavily restricted period.

 

However if we extended level 4 to 6 weeks, and don't get any new cases in 2 of those  final weeks, apart from new cases from returning travelers who should be in quarantine, then IMO we have a good chance of eliminating it from New Zealand with no new cases popping up, and then getting out of level 3 faster as well.

 

But it seems that the government is under huge pressure from all directions to get us out of level 4 after 28 days. But the fact is that UK is in a similar lockdown to NZ after going down teh herd immunity route, but they have some more restrictions than we have in level 4. eg they are limited to 1 hour outside to exercise. Australia is also in level 3.5 for months possibly 6 or more , and there are calls in some states wanting to move to NZs level 4 system due to concerns they have over there. Australia numbers based on their hospitalizations don't look anywhere near as good as NZs, and they appear to have cases not yet discovered, based on their relatively high hospitalization rate compared to NZs. I would be very concerned if we open our borders to Australia, without a 14 day quarantine being required.

 

 

Bold 1   Yes, in their bubbles, or in their cluster, both expected

 

Bold 2   Level 4 isnt the elimination step, its to thrash it, so we can easily manage it in Level 3. Four net cases today of a source still being checked. Thats low.

 

Bold 3   I feel thats too optimistic. Extended L4 we get a couple of days with 3 cases, extend and keep extending?

 

Bold 4   Agree, but they are not caving. L3 is what many would have expected.

 

Bold 5   Both PM's said today, it's not in conversation (1pm update here and Sky News AU tonight with PM doing a standup )

 

 


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  #2463702 16-Apr-2020 19:37
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MikeB4: Another concern is the new rules for level 3 are more complex than level 4. I big chunk of the population did not understand level 4 simple rules it all points to a shambles for level 3.

 

Exactly. I wonder why they make them so vague, because the press conferences are just going to be filled with questions from reporters asking them what they can and can't do in level 3 with examples. Also we will get people finding loopholes again. Also the PM said that Level 3 relies on people following 'common sense', but that is a skill that is missing in some people I have found.


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  #2463705 16-Apr-2020 19:43
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Batman:

 

Austraila in their 'lockdown' for another 4 weeks 

 

https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/australia-in-lockdown-for-another-four-weeks-pm/video/3441990dbef9b367e40dee1abff74491

 

 

There are many doubts about throw response, notably including Sir David Skegg. I imagine AUS will continue with their L2.5 type lockdown for some time. L3 here has to be contactless, not there. Admittedly Pm Morrison did say that Australia is not doing a Sweden or a New Zealand.  That says it all. Our lockdown stands out like a sore thumb. Todays net cases of 4 (ignoring expected cluster additions) is the reason why (cross fingers)

 

 


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  #2463708 16-Apr-2020 19:51
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A star studded US benefit for the World Health Organization

The website was a bit unclear on who would receive the funds, but Stephen Colbert made it clear since Trump is defunding the WHO, the benefit would be for the WHO.

In New Zealand, watch on Youtube or Instagram this Sunday at noon, or afterwards (Saturday US EST 8pm)

https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/connect/togetherathome/


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  #2463710 16-Apr-2020 19:52
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The only thing that really concerns me about the level 3 plan is schools reopening. That seems to me to be a big risk of rapid CT. Every parent and sibling of a year 10 or younger will be in a bubble containing maybe a thousand people.

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  #2463717 16-Apr-2020 19:58
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frankv: The only thing that really concerns me about the level 3 plan is schools reopening. That seems to me to be a big risk of rapid CT. Every parent and sibling of a year 10 or younger will be in a bubble containing maybe a thousand people.

 

 

That would be my concern as well, schools for younger children are petri dishes at the best of times. I'd open schools for older groups who can't afford to miss more time, not younger ones who can easily skip a few more weeks.

 

 

But that's just my peanut-gallery opinion, I assume there's some reason for opening only for younger age groups.

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  #2463718 16-Apr-2020 19:58
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mattwnz:

 

MikeB4: Another concern is the new rules for level 3 are more complex than level 4. I big chunk of the population did not understand level 4 simple rules it all points to a shambles for level 3.

 

Exactly. I wonder why they make them so vague, because the press conferences are just going to be filled with questions from reporters asking them what they can and can't do in level 3 with examples. Also we will get people finding loopholes again. Also the PM said that Level 3 relies on people following 'common sense', but that is a skill that is missing in some people I have found.

 

 

Seems pretty negative. Seems clear enough for me. If I ran a business again, I can call MBIE for clarification. You cannot use motorised activities, you can swim and surf and fish from the shore. I assume golf will be ok that will be sought out by NZ Golf. 

 

Seems very negative from both of you, (whose posts I do respect I need to note). I know both of you are opposed to leaving L4, but one says L3 rules are complex, the other vague. They can't be both. There are few rules. They have set a few principles, that avoids having a long list of businesses that can open and cannot, then being presented with variations and requests. Can you manage distancing, contactless to the public, hygiene, manage the work bubble details of people's names? If so, you are in. (probably extra stuff as well but its not complex or vague IMO)

 

Or 2, 4, 6, 8 more weeks of L4 until cases get to zero daily? That would also work. As well as adding the economic cost will be tenfold what it is to date. We aren't getting 56 cases a day and going to L3 tomorrow.


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  #2463719 16-Apr-2020 19:59
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Some Covdid19 humour to break up the discussion:

 

 

 

Top lockdown Google search results:

 

 

Week 1: N95 face masks

 

Week 2: Cooking for beginners

 

Week 3: How can I kill my kids/spouse and get away with it

 

 


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