2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2463742 16-Apr-2020 20:05

neb:
frankv: The only thing that really concerns me about the level 3 plan is schools reopening. That seems to me to be a big risk of rapid CT. Every parent and sibling of a year 10 or younger will be in a bubble containing maybe a thousand people.
That would be my concern as well, schools for younger children are petri dishes at the best of times. I'd open schools for older groups who can't afford to miss more time, not younger ones who can easily skip a few more weeks. But that's just my peanut-gallery opinion, I assume there's some reason for opening only for younger age groups.

Same thoughts here. The reasoning I heard is that Year 11+ will not honour social distancing very well. (You've seen the car window sticker, Hire a Teen, they Know Everything) With up to Year 10 they can manage the kids better that way, smaller classes. And these classes are the same all year, same kids, same teacher, so same bubble. Also their age means they need supervision legally, and thats helpful for some parents where they can get back to work if the kids are at school.

As I see it, if daily cases are very low and stay very low, the risk for the 4.7 million of us is very low.

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msukiwi

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#2463744 16-Apr-2020 20:13

Does level 3 mean we might see flour and yeast back on the Supermarket shelves?

hio77

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#2463755 16-Apr-2020 20:23

Batman:
Austraila in their 'lockdown' for another 4 weeks

https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/australia-in-lockdown-for-another-four-weeks-pm/video/3441990dbef9b367e40dee1abff74491

So 4 more weeks of going to the beach...

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tdgeek

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#2463759 16-Apr-2020 20:32

hio77:
Batman:

Austraila in their 'lockdown' for another 4 weeks

https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/australia-in-lockdown-for-another-four-weeks-pm/video/3441990dbef9b367e40dee1abff74491

So 4 more weeks of going to the beach...

Yep, thats under exercise. Go and see your girlfriend thats under care, go see a mate, thats under social. Grab a coffee too, and a haircut. Rules do vary between states.

mattwnz

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#2463770 16-Apr-2020 21:09

tdgeek:

Batman:

Austraila in their 'lockdown' for another 4 weeks

https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/australia-in-lockdown-for-another-four-weeks-pm/video/3441990dbef9b367e40dee1abff74491

There are many doubts about throw response, notably including Sir David Skegg. I imagine AUS will continue with their L2.5 type lockdown for some time. L3 here has to be contactless, not there. Admittedly Pm Morrison did say that Australia is not doing a Sweden or a New Zealand. That says it all. Our lockdown stands out like a sore thumb. Todays net cases of 4 (ignoring expected cluster additions) is the reason why (cross fingers)

The DG said that Australia is around a level 3.5 when compared to NZ levels, rather than an L2.5, as per https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12324530 . So they are going to be at that level 3.5 for at least one more month (they expect up to 6 months), while NZ possibly goes to a level 3 which will apparently be more relaxed. No other country I have seen has exited lockdown after just 4 weeks, and also managed to eliminate it. Most other countries seem to be stuck in lockdown for months and months, just to flatten the curve and to not overwhelm the health system, and have no chance of eliminating it. .
Our level 3 is considered by the PM, as a 'recovery room' or a 'waiting room', but that we may need to go back into level 4 from there. I am wondering what the R0 rating of level 3 is, when compared to level 4, based on their modeling. It needs to be below 1 to allow the virus to die out, but the higher it is the longer it will take , if we don't knock it out in level 4. .
Certainly opening schools is a major concern for me, and also for school principals, because apparently they weren't consulted and they say that they don't know who is just going to turn up each day, and these are gatherings of people which increases the bubble size. Illness spreads in institutions like schools and resthomes relatively easily, as people come in contact with one another. When looking after younger children some contact is inevitable, and the virus takes advantage of humans needing that contact. IMO schools need to remain closed while in level 3. The level 3 plans do appear to allow for people to come in and join the bubble of others to look after children.

mattwnz

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#2463771 16-Apr-2020 21:11

msukiwi:

Does level 3 mean we might see flour and yeast back on the Supermarket shelves?

I can't really understand why they haven't resovled that yet, and got the large bags repackaged. Many people make their own bread with their breadmakers but can't, which means that packaged bread is also rationed by some supermarkets I have found.

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#2463773 16-Apr-2020 21:21

neb:
But that's just my peanut-gallery opinion, I assume there's some reason for opening only for younger age groups.

Cynically, I think it's because schools are nowadays more important as child minders than educators. Year 10 is about 15, which coincidentally is about the age that they can legally be at home alone.

Handle9

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#2463774 16-Apr-2020 21:25

neb:
frankv: The only thing that really concerns me about the level 3 plan is schools reopening. That seems to me to be a big risk of rapid CT. Every parent and sibling of a year 10 or younger will be in a bubble containing maybe a thousand people.
That would be my concern as well, schools for younger children are petri dishes at the best of times. I'd open schools for older groups who can't afford to miss more time, not younger ones who can easily skip a few more weeks. But that's just my peanut-gallery opinion, I assume there's some reason for opening only for younger age groups.

It's so parents can go back to work.

There is a massive economic driver to restart businesses. 4 weeks is a disaster for most businesses and 6 weeks kills another wave.

loceff13

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#2463778 16-Apr-2020 22:01

nzkiwiman:

I am probably just not understanding something; but how can the Bluff wedding on the 21st March be causing new cases still ...

Some of the infected are essential workers, I know of a small group in Dunedin from 1 workplace that tested positive after a workmate returned from the wedding and they were ill and tested early April. Then you have family/household transmission etc which might be passed on a few times. Not everyone is able to isolate themselves alone. We are only ~3 weeks in which isn't enough time to break every chain.

debo

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#2463787 16-Apr-2020 22:23

tdgeek: Bold 1 Yes, in their bubbles, or in their cluster, both expected

Do we actually know that? I have not seen it discussed. Consider someone that has the virus. They give it to their neighbour. This would be against level 4 rules. However, it is not considered CT because it can be traced. So, how many of the new cases have been infected from outside of their bubbles? There should be none now (except in cases of essential workers such as nurses).

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#2463795 16-Apr-2020 22:40

meanwhile in new york

neb

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#2463797 16-Apr-2020 22:50

Batman:
meanwhile in new york

This is actually a good example of why conspiracy theories are so beguiling. Rational people will respond to this with "wow, that's a surprise" (as the reporter did), "we'll have to wait and see what the explanation is". Conspiracy-theory nuts will instantly have the explanation for it: China, 5G signals, the WHO, the deep state, illegal immigrants, Hillary Clinton, fake news, take your pick.

mattwnz

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#2463803 16-Apr-2020 23:20

loceff13:

nzkiwiman:

I am probably just not understanding something; but how can the Bluff wedding on the 21st March be causing new cases still ...

Some of the infected are essential workers, I know of a small group in Dunedin from 1 workplace that tested positive after a workmate returned from the wedding and they were ill and tested early April. Then you have family/household transmission etc which might be passed on a few times. Not everyone is able to isolate themselves alone. We are only ~3 weeks in which isn't enough time to break every chain.

That is likely one reason we are still seeing transmission occurring, due to the length of the chain within that bubble. Resthomes are also a longer chain, which could take many weeks for the virus to work it's way through. I think this key to how long the level 4 lockdown plan will last for. The PM said that 4 weeks represents 2 virus cycles,and the cycle is what they have used. So I wouldn't be surprised to see it extended for at least one more cycle, and then reassess whether we can move back into the 'recovery room' (level 3) . If we don't eliminate it, then I think we will be back in level 4 in a month if not sooner, as with schools also reopening I can potentially see the R0 going above 1, if we haven't eliminated it, and if we don't know exactly were the virus is occurring and who has it. Also this tracking app the MOH wants to use apparently won't be ready until mid May. How many people will manually be writing down exactly who they have been in contact with each day?

I do recall Dr Skegg saying at the first select committee meeting, that NZ needs to eliminate it during level 4 https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12321119

kiwiharry

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#2463804 16-Apr-2020 23:24

mattwnz:
msukiwi:

Does level 3 mean we might see flour and yeast back on the Supermarket shelves?

I can't really understand why they haven't resovled that yet, and got the large bags repackaged. Many people make their own bread with their breadmakers but can't, which means that packaged bread is also rationed by some supermarkets I have found.

Yeah, same here. We listened to the advice and didn't panic buy, yet almost 4 weeks later I still haven't been able to purchase any flour. Have tried 4 separate supermarkets around my area here in West Auckland over the past 3 weeks. Nothing.

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Oblivian

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#2463806 16-Apr-2020 23:41

Keep in mind before jumping back into all the negatives around schools. The schooling is optional. This will not be 100% capacity interactions. And not all of them open.

The preference is for the remote learning still.

Yet for those who are able, distance learning is still the best option

They have to take the same precautions to distance themselves and prevent contamination as eeeeeerrryone else hoping for a bit of normality.

If parents don't feel safe. Or at risk. They won't be as full as you think.

Just the ones that have no choice but to work to live. Or can't stand the kids anymore.

I've said it once, Said it many times. It's an unknown. Wait for it to happen before judgement.

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