2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2463807 16-Apr-2020 23:44

In general Countdown only stocks small bags, and this is what people are buying so no stock. The Pak and Saves stock large bags and have stock last I heard.

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#2463810 16-Apr-2020 23:54

gzt: In general Countdown only stocks small bags, and this is what people are buying so no stock. The Pak and Saves stock large bags and have stock last I heard.

Also for some towns there isn't a paknsave, so people are forced to use Countdown or Fresh Choice, as people have to use the closest supermarket, and can't travel out of town to a supermarket. Paknsave also don't do deliveries unlike Countdown.

neb

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#2463815 17-Apr-2020 00:06

Oblivian:
Keep in mind before jumping back into all the negatives around schools. The schooling is optional. This will not be 100% capacity interactions. And not all of them open.

Ah, that's a good point. So those who desperately need them for childcare can use them as such while others can keep their kids at home.

One problem with this, and going to level 3 in general, is that while the folks in this thread can get a reasoned overview of things, most of NZ will only have their guess at what the regulations mean to guide them... explanatory notes for the public would be useful.

Oblivian

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#2463817 17-Apr-2020 00:13

Unfortunately true. A lot of extra info was released to be processed. But sadly the media don't help hyping it up with headlines that facebook/mobile users/short blurb readers take the tagline as gospel without delving further which is needed. Can almost guarantee there were people treating it as starting today going by mis-interpreting some of the headings I saw.

https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-system/alert-level-3/

Examples to explain these measures

Schools will look different under Alert Level 3. There will be far fewer students on the grounds, and they will stay within their small groups. Some teachers will be teaching students at school, while others will providing distance learning.

FAQs

Is it safe for my child to go to school?

Yes, it is safe for your child to go to school. The restrictions on the numbers of children are necessary due to the need for physical distancing, transport constraints, and limited resources. The limits also help reduce the risk.

The most relevant is the revised table. And MBIE are scrambling to make a list that stops most peoples concerns of the outter-limit pushers and broad spectrum that was applied in the 48hrs jump

https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/resources/tables/COVID-19-alert-levels-detailed.pdf

mattwnz

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#2463818 17-Apr-2020 00:14

Yeah, that is what I meant about the vagueness of it, and what people can and can't do. So I think it will keep the media busy, and will waste a lot of otherwise valuable questions at the following press conferences by reporters. But in some cases they are being very specific. eg It is interesting that they said people can go surfing and swimming for example, but not mountain biking, when I would have thought surfing was more dangerous than mountain biking in normal circumstances. I have never had an injury mountain biking myself, but have never ridden extreme trails, and I am not sure how many mountain bikers usually get lost, as long as they keep it reasonably local and on tracks they have used before. Also people can't go hunting, when hunting is also usually not usually dangerous. These are things they have been very specific about.

There are going to be so many grey areas with level 3 that will get a lot of discussion over the next few weeks.

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#2463819 17-Apr-2020 00:21

mattwnz:

it will keep the media busy, and will waste a lot of otherwise valuable questions at the following press conferences by reporters.

There are going to be so many grey areas with level 3 that will get a lot of discussion over the next few weeks.

Only if someone bitches they are being short-changed on Facebook and it gains traction. Much like most of their questions have been generated from recently with no real investigation done therefore taking the panel by surprise.

But at the same time. They are also rather concerned about their own jobs and pleading for money to prop media up. So expect that to also be a focus taking away from informative change.

neb

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#2463822 17-Apr-2020 00:28

mattwnz:
It is interesting that they said people can go surfing and swimming for example, but not mountain biking, when I would have thought surfing was more dangerous than mountain biking in normal circumstances.

I would assume they looked at ACC or whatever statistics and decided that everything above a certain line was too high-risk. I don't have Excel installed so can't check it without faffing around with an online viewer, but here's the relevant data.

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#2463832 17-Apr-2020 07:09

neb:
mattwnz:

It is interesting that they said people can go surfing and swimming for example, but not mountain biking, when I would have thought surfing was more dangerous than mountain biking in normal circumstances.

I would assume they looked at ACC or whatever statistics and decided that everything above a certain line was too high-risk. I don't have Excel installed so can't check it without faffing around with an online viewer, but here's the relevant data.

I do both and from a purely anecdotal point of view I have injured myself more on my bike than surfboard. But yes, one hopes they have looked at ACC numbers and considered the percentage of injuries vs estimates of total people doing each activity to make an informed decision.

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kingdragonfly

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#2463833 17-Apr-2020 07:10

I found their webpage interesting, since US citizens fleeing a country a trope depicted in movies.

US Government: What the Department of State Can and Can't Do in a Crisis

The US also has this FAQ:

Most of it is pretty vague, with a couple of exceptions

"I see there are still some commercial flights. Should I wait for a flight arranged by the U.S. embassy/consulate?

No. Arrange to depart immediately via commercial options as long as they remain available, unless you are prepared to remain abroad for an indefinite period.

Can the State Department/U.S. embassy/U.S. consulate help me book a flight with a commercial or charter air carrier? What about getting a refund for my flight or hotel?

No. Contact the service provider directly to purchase tickets and/or request a refund.

Are government-assisted evacuation flights free?

No. Evacuation flights are not free-of-charge and are, in fact, frequently more expensive than currently available commercial travel. Please see additional information about U.S. Government-assisted evacuation for U.S. Citizens."

Technofreak

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#2463834 17-Apr-2020 07:34

Why are they saying we are going to level 3 when the level 3 we knew albeit briefly it would seem is quite different to the new proposed level three.

Why not call it level 3.5 or at least something different from level 3 so as to reduce any confusion with what we were able do in the original level 3.

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tdgeek

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#2463836 17-Apr-2020 07:41

mattwnz:

The DG said that Australia is around a level 3.5 when compared to NZ levels, rather than an L2.5

If you look at our level 3, then AUS is 2.5 at best, far more freedom

tdgeek

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#2463839 17-Apr-2020 07:49

mattwnz:

That is likely one reason we are still seeing transmission occurring, due to the length of the chain within that bubble. Resthomes are also a longer chain, which could take many weeks for the virus to work it's way through. I think this key to how long the level 4 lockdown plan will last for. The PM said that 4 weeks represents 2 virus cycles,and the cycle is what they have used. So I wouldn't be surprised to see it extended for at least one more cycle, and then reassess whether we can move back into the 'recovery room' (level 3) . If we don't eliminate it, then I think we will be back in level 4 in a month if not sooner, as with schools also reopening I can potentially see the R0 going above 1, if we haven't eliminated it, and if we don't know exactly were the virus is occurring and who has it. Also this tracking app the MOH wants to use apparently won't be ready until mid May. How many people will manually be writing down exactly who they have been in contact with each day?

I do recall Dr Skegg saying at the first select committee meeting, that NZ needs to eliminate it during level 4 https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12321119

If we need to eliminate it, then its Level 4 for a minimum of another 4 weeks. But the odd case will still appear so another 4 weeks. I am FAR in favour of health outcomes than business (sort health then we can do business) but if you wish to take 8 to 12 weeks then business is over, a super mass effect on NZ. We spent a month where the high was 89, now its 4 if you ignore the 11 from the cluster. 4. The Law of Diminishing Returns applies. A month of hardship that took a severe ht to the virus and another 2 months dealing with a very low number. I say another two months as you want it eliminated. If we see 15 to 20 cases a day now it won't be zero every day in another 30 days.

tdgeek

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#2463841 17-Apr-2020 07:53

mattwnz:

Yeah, that is what I meant about the vagueness of it, and what people can and can't do. So I think it will keep the media busy, and will waste a lot of otherwise valuable questions at the following press conferences by reporters. But in some cases they are being very specific. eg It is interesting that they said people can go surfing and swimming for example, but not mountain biking, when I would have thought surfing was more dangerous than mountain biking in normal circumstances. I have never had an injury mountain biking myself, but have never ridden extreme trails, and I am not sure how many mountain bikers usually get lost, as long as they keep it reasonably local and on tracks they have used before. Also people can't go hunting, when hunting is also usually not usually dangerous. These are things they have been very specific about.

There are going to be so many grey areas with level 3 that will get a lot of discussion over the next few weeks.

Mountain biking is allowed. Easy rules. No motorised. Dont start a new hobby like surfing. Do it alone. Its not that vague. Or they list every conceivable activity?

blackjack17

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#2463847 17-Apr-2020 08:27

tdgeek:

frankv: The only thing that really concerns me about the level 3 plan is schools reopening. That seems to me to be a big risk of rapid CT. Every parent and sibling of a year 10 or younger will be in a bubble containing maybe a thousand people.
That would be my concern as well, schools for younger children are petri dishes at the best of times. I'd open schools for older groups who can't afford to miss more time, not younger ones who can easily skip a few more weeks. But that's just my peanut-gallery opinion, I assume there's some reason for opening only for younger age groups.

Same thoughts here. The reasoning I heard is that Year 11+ will not honour social distancing very well. (You've seen the car window sticker, Hire a Teen, they Know Everything) With up to Year 10 they can manage the kids better that way, smaller classes. And these classes are the same all year, same kids, same teacher, so same bubble. Also their age means they need supervision legally, and thats helpful for some parents where they can get back to work if the kids are at school.

As I see it, if daily cases are very low and stay very low, the risk for the 4.7 million of us is very low.

The big thing with the year 10 and under is that if you are 13 years of age or less you can not legally be left alone. If both parents are returning to work then something needs to be done to supervise these kids. If schools Y11 and up open then you have lost a huge number of babysitters that would have been supervising younger siblings.

Most high schools will have so few students that my guess is they will ask for volunteers amongst the teachers to come in a supervise the 2 or 3 classes (max) of students that will be learning remotely.

Primary schools will be in a similar position. Teachers without vulnerable people in their bubble will be supervising students getting remote teaching. Y1-3 will be tough balancing screen time with content time and maintaining distances. Maintaining personal space distances is hard enough with year 7s and 8s let alone y1-3.

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#2463850 17-Apr-2020 08:31

tdgeek:

Mountain biking is allowed. Easy rules. No motorised. Dont start a new hobby like surfing. Do it alone. Its not that vague. Or they list every conceivable activity?

So, surfing is allowed but yachting (which in NZ parlance generally covers all sail boating) isn't.

Does that mean I can go windsurfing (surely somewhere between surfing and sailing, and IMHO much safer than surfing)? What about paddleboarding? And kayaking is presumably OK so I'm safe to go out in my small plastic kayak but going out in my yacht is a complete no-no.

Agreed, no vagueness at all!

Personally I will be playing it safe and conservative

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