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  #2464229 17-Apr-2020 14:23
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PnSave moorhouse today :P

 

Word gets out fast


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  #2464231 17-Apr-2020 14:24
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Westpac has upped the limit on contactless payments from $80 to $200.

 
 
 
 


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  #2464233 17-Apr-2020 14:29
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frankv: .. No, I think the "new cases" is not net. That is the new cases identified, mostly on the day before the announcement. The cases details spreadsheet is amended to delete the probable that turned out not to be a case, so that retrospectively the count for a given day is decreased. But no count of "probables cleared" is announced.

 

But the net increase ( 1386 > 1401) was 15, so if one (or two) earlier case was taken out there must have been 16 (or 17) cases added?

 

The 1386 and 1401 figures are as per both the summary and individual case data on the MOH site.

 

The individual case data published 16 Apr included the following changes relative to the 15 Apr dataset:

 

  • Additional cases:  7 on 16 Apr, 8 on 15 Apr, and 1 each on 9 & 11 Apr
  • Removed:  1 each on 4 Apr & 26 Mar
    (all being 'Date of report' dates - presumably date of confirmation?)

Pre-4 April, there were two other days with an increase of one, and two with a reduction of one.  However, those appear to be date changes as the case details of the deleted and added cases match. 

 

That is not so for the new cases on 9 & 11 Apr.  The details for those are quite different from the cases removed on the 4 Apr & 26 Mar.

 

Hence there were potentially 17 additional cases - 15 (15 & 16 Apr) and one each confirmed on 9 & 11 Apr that were not in the data reported on the 15th? 

 

I note that the table on the MOH website refers to 'Change in last 24 hours' not 'New cases

 

 

 

Anyway, down to 8 'new' cases today so point a bit moot.  Continuing to look good.


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  #2464240 17-Apr-2020 14:40
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I saw reporters asking a few questions about level 3 today at the media conference, questioning hunting for example, which now appears to be a bit of a grey area.

 

I was discussing level 3 with someone and discussing real estate agents, which is a major industry in NZ, which could see a lot of activity after lock-down. They thought that real estate agents would be able to largely operate as normal under level 3, except they possibly wouldn't be able to do open homes.  However I said that I would doubt they could show people around a home, as they would then be interacting with the public in a common space (two or more bubbles coming in contact), which is similar to a retail store interaction, and under level 3 retail stores can't open. What would other peoples opinion be on this?

 

I am guessing they will be able to take photos inside houses if they do physical distancing inside the house, however I have noticed quite a lot of new property listings appearing throughout level 4 lockdown where professional photos appear to have been taken, and wonder if they were done during level 4 lockdown or before.

 

 
Also discussed today, under level 3 people are apparently now able to move home, although I witnessed someone moving home during level 4, so people haven't been following the rules anyway. 


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  #2464251 17-Apr-2020 15:16
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mattwnz:

 

I saw reporters asking a few questions about level 3 today at the media conference, questioning hunting for example, which now appears to be a bit of a grey area.

 

I was discussing level 3 with someone and discussing real estate agents, which is a major industry in NZ, which could see a lot of activity after lock-down. They thought that real estate agents would be able to largely operate as normal under level 3, except they possibly wouldn't be able to do open homes.  However I said that I would doubt they could show people around a home, as they would then be interacting with the public in a common space (two or more bubbles coming in contact), which is similar to a retail store interaction, and under level 3 retail stores can't open. What would other peoples opinion be on this?

 

I am guessing they will be able to take photos inside houses if they do physical distancing inside the house, however I have noticed quite a lot of new property listings appearing throughout level 4 lockdown where professional photos appear to have been taken, and wonder if they were done during level 4 lockdown or before.

 

 
Also discussed today, under level 3 people are apparently now able to move home, although I witnessed someone moving home during level 4, so people haven't been following the rules anyway. 

 

 

Im sure I heard today that it was no open homes. But say I was an agent. You are interested, we meet there, apart, keys in letterbox, use your gloves, have a wander inside, all doors open, dont touch anything. As he said, they made a call on principles, and finer details underway such as hunting. If KFC can make food under the guidelines, and others pick and pack online goods, then seems ok for one person to wander through a house.

 

Its impossible to list the 1000 activities that we or businesses can do, the guidelines cover most scenarios, and details to come thats being worked on. 

 

If we got 20 of us here to list every possible activity over the course of two weeks, and we are done, the next 20 will add plenty more. Its too hard to get everything, but those "everythings" that need considering will turn up at 0800 MBIE. Unlike normal rules and regulatory matters, a request made today may well be advised tomorrow or the next day as yes or no 


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  #2464255 17-Apr-2020 15:19
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MadEngineer: Westpac has upped the limit on contactless payments from $80 to $200.

 

Pretty sure it's universal, isn't it?

 

 


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  #2464267 17-Apr-2020 15:36
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networkn:

 

MadEngineer: Westpac has upped the limit on contactless payments from $80 to $200.

 

Pretty sure it's universal, isn't it?

 

 

Most banks and card operators I've heard are increasing these limits. It may take a few days for one or another to happen but will happen.





 

 

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  #2464327 17-Apr-2020 17:07
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Washington Post, on New Zealand: New Zealand’s new coronavirus cases drop to single digits amid nationwide lockdown

After several weeks under a strict nationwide lockdown, New Zealand’s number of new coronavirus cases fell to single digits over the past 24 hours, officials said Friday.

The country reported eight new cases of the novel virus Friday, two confirmed and six probable, down from 15 the previous day, Caroline McElnay, director of public health, said at a news conference. New Zealand now has a total of 1,409 cases.

“We all need to continue to play our part to contribute to the elimination of this virus from New Zealand by staying home, staying in your bubble, breaking the chain of transmission and saving lives,” McElnay said.

New Zealand’s “elimination” approach to fighting the outbreak has largely stopped the virus from spreading among its population of nearly 5 million, but is expected to have a crushing impact on the country’s economy. Leaders plan to announce on April 20 whether New Zealand can begin easing out of lockdown or if the restrictive measures will continue.

On Friday, McElnay reported two new coronavirus-related deaths, both involving elderly patients in their 80s and 90s, bringing the country’s death toll to 11. But she noted that the number of cases of people who have recovered from the virus increased by 46 from the day before.

McElnay also announced that researchers from the Medical Research Institute of New Zealand have received funding to co-lead three scientific trials aimed at assessing potential therapeutic agents to fight covid-19. Hydroxychloroquine, the anti-malarial drug that has recently been touted by President Trump, is among the therapies that will be studied, she said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/17/coronavirus-latest-news/

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  #2464330 17-Apr-2020 17:08
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Washington Post, Chinese articles: Wuhan’s death toll was almost 50 percent higher than previously reported, Chinese authorities say

China has revised up the number of people who died from coronavirus in Wuhan by almost 50 percent, saying Friday that the death toll at the epicenter of the pandemic now stands at 3,869.

The figure was previously 2,579, a number that many analysts and ordinary citizens said appeared far too low. U.S. intelligence agencies had also reportedly concluded that China’s official numbers are much lower than reality.

The Wuhan municipal headquarters for the novel coronavirus disease epidemic prevention and control added 1,290 to the death toll on Friday — at the same time attention was focused on China’s much-anticipated economic statistics, which showed that growth contracted by a whopping 6.8 percent in the first quarter.

The agency said the discrepancy in Wuhan’s fatality figures was the result of many patients dying at home in the early stages of the epidemic rather than being treated in hospitals, so their deaths were not included in medical figures.

For those who died in hospitals, medical staff were preoccupied with treating patients, “resulting in belated, missed and mistaken reporting,” according to a statement from the agency. There were repetitions, mistakes and omissions in the reporting of deaths during the height of the outbreak in Wuhan, it said.

“Life and people are what matter most,” the statement concluded. “Every life lost in the epidemic is not only a loss to their family but also a grief for the city. Our sincere condolences go to the families of those who deceased in the covid-19 epidemic, and we express deep sorrow to the compatriots and medical workers who lost their lives in the epidemic.”

Pandemic delivers crushing blow to China’s economy

The coronavirus pandemic is sending China’s economy, long the world’s growth engine, into a tail spin.

Gross domestic product fell at an annual rate of 6.8 percent in the first quarter, the first contraction since the country began releasing the figures in 1992, official data showed Friday. That’s a dramatic reversal for the world’s second-largest economy, which had been slowing in recent years but had still achieved growth rates of around 6 percent or more.

China’s leaders locked down swaths of the country in January to prevent the spread of infection, weeks after the coronavirus emerged in the city of Wuhan.

As authorities fought back the pandemic in China, the ruling Communist Party has pressed to get business gradually returning to normal without unleashing a second wave of infections. That’s proving a challenge. Beijing has also grown concerned as imported cases trickle in from abroad, notably among Chinese nationals returning from Russia.

Businesses that have resumed operations have often faced higher costs associated with hygiene measures and supply-chain disruptions. And with export markets in the United States and Europe facing a severe downturn, China’s policymakers face an uphill battle to right the ship.

“The scale and breadth of China’s economic contraction are staggering, and its ramifications for global growth are already becoming apparent,” said Eswar Prasad, professor of economics at Cornell University and former head of the China division at the International Monetary Fund, in an email. “China’s economic collapse is a bellwether of what the data for other major economies will reveal in the coming weeks.”

Unlike after the global financial crisis, there is little prospect of China driving a revival of global growth, Prasad added.

Asian markets had traded higher Friday and were little moved after China’s GDP figures. Benchmark indexes in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia were each about 2 percent higher, while U.S. stock futures were up 3 percent.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/17/coronavirus-latest-news/

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  #2464333 17-Apr-2020 17:12
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networkn: @ds248 is there a practical way to determine based on current trends how long it would be before we had 4 days of no new cases? Assuming a continuation of L4 lockdown? 

 

I doubt it.  At least not at this point.  There tends to be a long tail and there are often plateaus on the route down, as well as fluctuations.  There will certainly not be four days of zero (non-imported) cases before Monday!  Probably not even by the following Monday.   Not certain that zero non-imported cases is necessary but would want a very low number per day (1?).  Getting parts of the economy started back on track is also very important.  

 

The decision will of course also depend on results of the current 'targeted' testing.  But personally I think they need to do a lot more than they are currently doing in that regard to have confidence in the results.  I cannot see how they will have sufficient reliable data by Monday.

 

Taiwan shows that significant parts of the economy can work safely with appropriate controls, etc.  In the last week they had 15 cases, all but one imported (mostly from the US) or off the Coral Princess cruise ship.  That is, just 1 local case in the last 7 days despite having 4.5x the NZ population.  The one local case was a male in his 20's living in the same house as a imported case who returned to Taiwan on 21 March and was confirmed infected on 23 March.  The young male had been in isolation since 23 March but was not confirmed infected until 12 Apr, 20 days after going into isolation.

 

Despite what some people think, Australia is also doing well (slightly better than NZ) with a more limited lockdown more akin to our L3.  A lot is made of their hospitalisation rate.  Although that can indicate inadequate testing, it is not of itself a good metric.  The level of hospitalisation also reflects the medical resources and wealth a country has at its disposal and the level of care provided.  And whether we like it or not, Australia has more resources per capita than us.  Hong Kong, and at least until a week or so ago (not check recently) Singapore hospitalise everyone who tests positive.  That is not a reflection of missing more cases due to limited testing, its a reflection of their resources and level care they provide.

 

==

 

Incidentally I will post a plot in the data thread a bit later showing that the 'drop' in cases to 8 yesterday is an illusion.  In reality our new local cases confirmed per day has remained ~flat over the last four days (at ~12/day).  In fact at 13, yesterday was the largest number over the last four days. Slightly lower number on Wed (9th) possibly due to the lower testing over Easter weekend.




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  #2464374 17-Apr-2020 18:33
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welcome to the future. 10 min test -> result before doing anything. now if only the tests are reliable and available ... 

 

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/emirates-passengers-blood-test-covid-19/index.html





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2464378 17-Apr-2020 18:38
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DS248:

 

 

 

Incidentally I will post a plot in the data thread a bit later showing that the 'drop' in cases to 8 yesterday is an illusion.  In reality our new local cases confirmed per day has remained ~flat over the last four days (at ~12/day).  In fact at 13, yesterday was the largest number over the last four days. Slightly lower number on Wed (9th) possibly due to the lower testing over Easter weekend.

 

 

Can you explain. I see the 8 cases advised today. Great. All are related to existing cases. That and recent numbers tell me that our new cases are seeded from known issues, which as a layman I take that as expected, and more importantly are already in lockdown. As I see it (as a layman) that if we get a few cases everyday that relate to clusters, etc, this means no CT? The public may see only a few cases each day, great, but if they are all linked to exisiting cases, the net result is zero?  As in those already known and locked down are of no risk. And the risk, which is CT isn't happening?

 

Your comment?  


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  #2464427 17-Apr-2020 19:14
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Batman:

 

welcome to the future. 10 min test -> result before doing anything. now if only the tests are reliable and available ... 

 

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/emirates-passengers-blood-test-covid-19/index.html

 

 

I really worry about CNN as a reliable source. 
This is nuts - the tests aren't reliable even if they are available - we'll possibly end up in deep sh*t if we start using inhetently unreliable quick serological tests as a method to reduce international transmission by air travel.  It's a complete and utter fail, a PR exercise and not fit for purpose.

 

Medical experts should perhaps start giving Emirates advice on jet engine maintenance and safety checks.

 

I hope national health authorities don't buy in to useless scams like this.


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  #2464439 17-Apr-2020 20:11
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msukiwi:

Had my first INR test (Blood thinner) since the lock down, this morning at Riccarton Clinic. 

 

 

Neighbour reported a similar experience with a blood test on the North Shore, everyone wearing PPE, everything sanitised and clean, people let in one by one in a very controlled manner, can't remember all the details (chatting over a safe distance) but it sounded really well-run and reassuring.

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  #2464442 17-Apr-2020 20:19
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freitasm:

Most banks and card operators I've heard are increasing these limits. It may take a few days for one or another to happen but will happen.

 

 

ASB said they may need to reissue cards to move some to the higher limit, but it's free on request. BNZ had already upped the limit a week ago.

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