2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2426972 25-Feb-2020 15:29

mattwnz:

I guess it could increase turnover in resthomes, which could be good for rest home shareholders, but that isn't a good thing.

I think it will have the opposite effect for shareholders.

A buddy of mine, an electrician, has just worked the weekend earning time-and-a-half at a local Aged-Care/Supportive living facility - home to about 450 residents – one in a chain of about a dozen.
His company's installing cameras and remote/keypad controls at the main, public sliding glass entry doors, and building an 'airlock style' secondary main entrance.

I popped over for a look. They're going all out at this facility, and – I'd assume - at the others to tightly control access.
The new entrance looks to have an airwall or pressurisation. Couldn't get in there to see.

Management specifically told them it was nothing to to with the new virus, just normal seasonal flu precautions.
Yeah, right.

Kneejerk reaction? Maybe.. this is costing money.
If it was my aged relative living there I'd be glad to see they're making an effort.
If they weren't being proactive and a bunch of paying guests got sick or died – I expect they'd be sued.

Edit: This is in Canada

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tdgeek

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#2426973 25-Feb-2020 15:31

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

Yes, we are all linked. When you buy a Pinky Bar, you are paying many people, who are paying many people, and so on. We were going up to Wuhan in April. Not now, but we will, so our airfares will still contribute to the economy, but they won't contribute to todays salaries in todays supply chain for that trip. Thats a bad situation

It will probably be one of the safest places to be :) When I went to Japan, I was surprised to see the high number of people with masks on in winter to prevent the spread of colds and flu. But I do wonder if we won't now see more of that here.

No doubt.

At lunch I was reading stuff on the economic costs of SARS and this one. One pertinent comment was, the costs are not mainly due to the virus they are du to the panic. If the shutdown in China are relaxed soon, it may not be that bad economically (for them) as it was part of a holiday period, andf it hasnt dragged on too long

Early days though. As China is now over 16% of global GDP insread of 3 or 4 in 2003, its now a much largher global effect

Fred99

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#2427020 25-Feb-2020 18:18

tdgeek:

These outbreaks are common.

No they aren't. The last time there was a confirmed global pandemic with this potential was in 1918.
This is not "the flu" - but confirmed case fatality rate is already higher than 1% outside China. There's a lot of misguided optimism "it's just the flu" comments based on an (unsupported by any evidence) theory that numbers of undiagnosed / mild / asymptomatic cases are multiples of diagnosed cases. I hope they are right - but I'm far from convinced.

If the attitude "it's just the flu" prevails, then we'll probably end up worse than Wuhan - where case fatality rate is getting up to the kind of figures attributed to the 1918-20 pandemic - because we won't act firmly enough.

From a viral evolution point of view, the hypothesis that viruses mutate to become less virulent but more contagious may not apply over any relevant timescale to this pandemic. This was contagious from day one (with spread from asymptomatic carriers etc) - so there's not much "evolutionary forcing" for the virus to become less virulent as it becomes more contagious - as it's already plenty contagious.

tdgeek

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#2427110 25-Feb-2020 20:02

Fred99:

tdgeek:

These outbreaks are common.

No they aren't. The last time there was a confirmed global pandemic with this potential was in 1918.
This is not "the flu" - but confirmed case fatality rate is already higher than 1% outside China. There's a lot of misguided optimism "it's just the flu" comments based on an (unsupported by any evidence) theory that numbers of undiagnosed / mild / asymptomatic cases are multiples of diagnosed cases. I hope they are right - but I'm far from convinced.

If the attitude "it's just the flu" prevails, then we'll probably end up worse than Wuhan - where case fatality rate is getting up to the kind of figures attributed to the 1918-20 pandemic - because we won't act firmly enough.

From a viral evolution point of view, the hypothesis that viruses mutate to become less virulent but more contagious may not apply over any relevant timescale to this pandemic. This was contagious from day one (with spread from asymptomatic carriers etc) - so there's not much "evolutionary forcing" for the virus to become less virulent as it becomes more contagious - as it's already plenty contagious.

There were Flu pandemics in 1918, 1956 and 1968. Ebola 2014, SARS 2003, MERS 2012, COVID-19 2019, and other less well known viruses. There are a number of outbreaks.

Im not sure of the potential here. China is a huge country physically and population. It seems we are 4 months in and known cases are 80,000, deaths, 2800 or so. Thats possibly a good result based on population, Im unsure. You would expect as it traverses other countries that it would not be any worse as percentage of available population. It all depends how brave any country is to slow the spread by quarantine.

Yes, just my opinions, no more.

Re flu, flu is mentioned a lot, flu symptoms, low death rate that mainly affects the infirmed, just like flu, no cure, so its probably not unreasonable that the word flu is used as often as it is

Fred99

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#2427122 25-Feb-2020 20:44

tdgeek:

Re flu, flu is mentioned a lot, flu symptoms, low death rate that mainly affects the infirmed, just like flu, no cure, so its probably not unreasonable that the word flu is used as often as it is

Well there's a huge misunderstanding right there. Covid-19 is far worse than any flu pandemic for 100 years.

This meta analysis suggests mortality rate of 4.8% over 50,000 diagnosed cases.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v1

There's always a "but" - "but how many undiagnosed cases are there". The answer to that is nobody knows.

kingdragonfly

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#2427124 25-Feb-2020 20:59

Report: Trump Regime Overruled CDC, Flew Coronavirus-Infected Americans On Plane With Healthy People

GizModo by Matt Novak

Robert Kadlec, the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response at HHS, who reportedly argued against the CDC’s recommendations, seen on a panel in Washington D.C. on February 18, 2020.

The U.S. State Department overruled the advice of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), choosing to bring 14 Americans who were infected with the new coronavirus back from Japan, according to the Washington Post. The new report raises serious questions about the U.S. government’s decisions at a time when the coronavirus, which causes an illness called Covid-19, threatens to become a global pandemic.

The American evacuees were passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise, which has been quarantined in Yokohama, Japan since February 5. Over 600 of the 3,700 passengers from the Diamond Princess have tested positive for the virus, and it was announced yesterday that two Japanese passengers in their 80s recently died. The U.S. chartered two Boeing 747 planes to bring Americans from the cruise ship to military bases in California and Texas where they’re being quarantined for 14 days.

One of the U.S. State Department’s evacuation planes was loaded with 328 Americans on Monday when new lab results came back showing that 14 of the passengers had tested positive for the coronavirus. The CDC’s principal deputy director, Anne Schuchat, recommended that the 14 passengers be taken off the plane and receive medical attention in Japan. But Trump officials like Robert Kadlec, assistant secretary for preparedness and response at HHS, disagreed with the CDC, according to the Washington Post.

Kadlec, who previously worked as a special assistant to President George W. Bush and serves as a member of the Trump regime’s coronavirus task force, reportedly argued that the planes that had been chartered by the government contained seats which could be cordoned off for any infected passengers. This news wasn’t shared with the other healthy passengers on the flight, many of whom only learned about flying with infected passengers after they landed in the U.S. and saw news reports.
...

Batman

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#2427148 25-Feb-2020 23:01

tdgeek:

There were Flu pandemics in 1918, 1956 and 1968. Ebola 2014, SARS 2003, MERS 2012, COVID-19 2019, and other less well known viruses. There are a number of outbreaks.

Im not sure of the potential here. China is a huge country physically and population. It seems we are 4 months in and known cases are 80,000, deaths, 2800 or so. Thats possibly a good result based on population, Im unsure. You would expect as it traverses other countries that it would not be any worse as percentage of available population. It all depends how brave any country is to slow the spread by quarantine.

Yes, just my opinions, no more.

Re flu, flu is mentioned a lot, flu symptoms, low death rate that mainly affects the infirmed, just like flu, no cure, so its probably not unreasonable that the word flu is used as often as it is

this guy says outside of China, fatality rate (almost) same as influenza

alexx

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#2427155 26-Feb-2020 00:53

tdgeek:

Given that China has locked itself away, and that many countries have all but closed the border, my concern is elsewhere. As few, if any countries will be able to lockdown as well as China has, and that is the danger. What you will find is that other countries may show a very clear exponential growth, where as China's has been relatively linear. Once the single at risk country, becomes 25 at risk countries, each with exponential growth, we may as well just give up and push hard for a vaccine.

Iran might become a major problem and not because many kiwis or westerners go there, but because it seems that a lot of the new cases in the middle east appear to have originated in Iran. Perhaps Egypt, Israel and Lebanon already had cases, but these new cases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman and Afghanistan appear to have a link with Iran.

When Iran has the second highest number of deaths (behind only China), then I'm sure the actual number of cases are much higher than the 95 currently listed, probably hundreds, if not 1000+ already.

Perhaps a combination of sanctions, other economic problems, corruption and incompetence helped the initial spread in Iran, but now it appears to have spread across the region. No mention of Syria yet - a country with close ties to Iran, but are they even testing?

Perhaps we will soon need additional travel restrictions for the middle east and companies (including airlines) that are based there.

We have defence forces people in Iraq and Afghanistan and other parts of the region. If things get much worse, they might need to be quarantined when they come home. At least the defence forces are better quipped to self quarantine than most people.

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PolicyGuy

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#2427156 26-Feb-2020 00:58

mattwnz:
I guess it could increase turnover in resthomes, which could be good for rest home shareholders

I think the opposite.
If I had lots of money, if / when the pandemic gets here, I'd go seriously short on rest home operators.
If an operator loses for example 25% of its 80+ customers, 15% of its 70+ and 10% of its 65+ residents, it will have a huge surplus of empty rooms. Many operators make a serious part of their money on capital gains when a resident leaves [ahem] and they sell the bed to a new customer: if there's a surplus of beds, there goes the capital gain too.

Sidestep

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#2427157 26-Feb-2020 05:22

Iran's deputy minister of health, Iraj Harirchi, appeared on TV yesterday to deny reports that the death toll there is more than four times higher than official figures suggest.

During the live TV broadcast he looked sweaty and pale, and has now been diagnosed with coronavirus himself - and been placed in isolation.

In a social media post he's since said “many may get infected”

Iraq, Afghanistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Canada have reported infected travellers arriving from Iran, many who haven't been to officially affected areas.

tdgeek

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#2427158 26-Feb-2020 06:28

Fred99:

tdgeek:

Re flu, flu is mentioned a lot, flu symptoms, low death rate that mainly affects the infirmed, just like flu, no cure, so its probably not unreasonable that the word flu is used as often as it is

Well there's a huge misunderstanding right there. Covid-19 is far worse than any flu pandemic for 100 years.

This meta analysis suggests mortality rate of 4.8% over 50,000 diagnosed cases.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v1

There's always a "but" - "but how many undiagnosed cases are there". The answer to that is nobody knows.

The reported cases of about 80,000 and deaths of about 2700 is lower, and yes its very serious, but Im not sure how it could be seen as the worst in 100 years. However, the ability to quarantine and care for these people is far better now, so maybe you are right. If we had the quarantine and care that existed 100 years ago, it would be far worse than what we have.

Batmans post from Singapore states that if you excluded Hubei, the mortality is 0.2%. I would assume thats correct, they can't just make that up.

Batman

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#2427176 26-Feb-2020 07:03

That was before Iran... Mortality seems to be location dependent.

tdgeek

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#2427177 26-Feb-2020 07:15

Batman: That was before Iran... Mortality seems to be location dependent.

I'd say its dependent on the "first worldness" of each country. A virus cant really be location dependent, aside from hot or cold conditions that can help or hinder it.

A 100 infected people in Australia or Iran is a world apart, as to the condition of the average person, and ease of person to person transfer and the ability to care for.

Fred99

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#2427184 26-Feb-2020 07:35

tdgeek:

Batmans post from Singapore states that if you excluded Hubei, the mortality is 0.2%. I would assume thats correct, they can't just make that up.

They made it up. There really is no hard data available - so they have to make it up. They have to make up data for estimating flu mortality too - because you can't know what you can't know. A mild or asymptomatic case of flu isn't recorded as a "case" because it isn't recorded.

Do you think that China would quarantine / travel ban to the extent they have - causing massive economic damage to their economy - if this was "just the flu"?

Fred99

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#2427191 26-Feb-2020 07:53

Batman: That was before Iran... Mortality seems to be location dependent.

Reporting quality is location dependant - that's the problem with Iran - they only realised they had the disease in the country after people started dying with symptoms typical for Covid-19.

If this disease becomes a major epidemic in a first-world country, then once it overwhelms the healthcare system (run out of ICU beds etc) then they're not much better off than a third-world country. On the other hand, less crowded living conditions and better sanitation may mean it doesn't spread as fast.

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