2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2464945 18-Apr-2020 16:23

If it wasn't already apparent. The 1pm update is meant to be weekday only - they need a weekend too!

If it's on the weekend (like last week), the shooot has hit the fan (there were deaths) or some heavy clarification by way of media/national address is needed. Else you get a paper release that may not be as informative re links etc

The way I see it, tracked to known cases - likely increasing due to still operating workplace distancing failures (media works numbers started mid lockdown..) or intra-bubble breaches. 'I'm finnneee lets get back out the room to see my family... /week passes/ ..oh poo'

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mentalinc

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#2464946 18-Apr-2020 16:29

hairy1:
Just wow.... If this man means we have to stay at level 4 for another month.... Lost for words...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/121102617/man-with-covid19-arrested-after-shopping-at-timaru-supermarket

Should have been thrown into prison for several days and greeted with a substantial fine ($10K+) upon his release.

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ezbee

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#2464948 18-Apr-2020 16:36

RE WHO ,

I see it as more of a failure of the Political side of the organisation.
I'm sure scientists and bulk of all the people dealing with facts had a much better handle on things.
The funding that goes there does valuable work that we need to be done and to keep going.

Political leadership.... well ...

However no governments with enough power in WHO/UN were willing to rock the diplomatic boat at the time, including USA.

Remember how Japan used its economic power to get votes on the global whaling body.

Helen Clark in her interview suggested that these things should go up to higher levels in UN to security council.

She did bring up the poisoned Milk powder scandal where Fonterra was told to leave things till well after Olympics.
Well good on her for giving them no choice, but giving credit for moving when they were given no choice... well...

"I might say from my experience of dealing with China with such a critical issue, which was over the milk powder scandal back in 2008, our experience was that when we blew the whistle in Beijing, Beijing moved at the speed of lightning."

I expect Taiwan and Vietnam have done better after SARS experience.
They simply did not trust and took a good look at what was 'really' going on , given their close contact.
Taiwan has done yearly SARS, Swine Flue, Bird Flu, like pandemic simulation to test their plans and reediness.
Once you have one new nasty pop up its only time before the next

Fred99

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#2464949 18-Apr-2020 16:36

debo:

I consider this "random" testing retarded. It would be better to have tested all 15000 Queenstown residents in combined tests. So swab 50 people and then do 1 test on the whole group. Still 300 tests over all but you will know exactly the spread. If a group tests positive then test the group individually.

I agree - and I think Ashley Bloomfield even suggested that a week or so ago. There wasn't an unlimited supply of swabs though - so maybe that's why it hasn't been done.

dejadeadnz

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#2464952 18-Apr-2020 16:39

The media hasn't done a good job in holding people to account for some of those less blatantly dickish but yet nonetheless completely avoidable contribution to the COVID-19-related suffering. I am talking about the idiots who gathered for St Patricks celebrations in the Matamata cluster, the idiotic couple who went ahead with the wedding in Bluff when all authorities were calling for the minimisation of gatherings, and the idiotic organisers of that stupid cattle conference in Queenstown as examples. No doubt there are others/

For anyone tempted to retort "But they weren't breaking the law at the time!", consider this: the law is a floor and not a ceiling. Truly others-regarding, sensible and moral individuals should have (and ought to have) cancelled those unnecessary gatherings. It's easy to resort to platitudes like "The disease doesn't discriminate!" -- it doesn't but the world also could do with less people enthusiastically helping it along.

Dicks.

tdgeek

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#2464953 18-Apr-2020 16:42

debo:

I consider this "random" testing retarded. It would be better to have tested all 15000 Queenstown residents in combined tests. So swab 50 people and then do 1 test on the whole group. Still 300 tests over all but you will know exactly the spread. If a group tests positive then test the group individually.

No, its 15000 tests. Hard to do. 300 is the results. Easy to do. Nationwide we did 4700 tests Friday how long would it take to test 15000 in one town?

If say there were 0.5% CT out there, 1 in every 200 of us has the virus. If you test a few thousand, at supermarkets, or anywhere really, you get a snapshot, and should show 0.5% infection, and a margin of error.

tdgeek

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#2464954 18-Apr-2020 16:46

mattwnz:

The thing is that it isn't really random, nor testing the people that probably should be tested, so it doesn't surprise me. There was an article from an expert about how crude this method was and that it wouldn't really show much, but I can't find that article any more. I am guessing these tests are going to be presented to the government as an indication that it isn't really spreading in the community. But we still had 13 new cases today, which IMO is a concern this far into lockdown. Unfortunately they still don't appear to be telling us where all these new cases are occurring, in terms of what sort of people are being infected. Guessing some are from resthomes, some are medical staff?. It appears once this virus gets it's foot in the door somewhere, it is rampant.

Seems quite random. Everyone has to eat, we test the food buyers, who live in a house with other food eaters. In many cases you are testing the family at home, or the flatmates at home.

The 13 cases, did they state that they are all linked to known cases?

mattwnz

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#2464956 18-Apr-2020 16:47

Oblivian:
If it wasn't already apparent. The 1pm update is meant to be weekday only - they need a weekend too!

It appears to have been everyday for the last month including weekends. They do rotate staff.
But you would expect their website to be able to cope if they aren't going to do a media conference. .

frankv

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#2464958 18-Apr-2020 16:48

Scott3:
I am not alone, there is a million people that are calling for Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus to resign... https://www.change.org/p/united-nations-call-for-the-resignation-of-tedros-adhanom-ghebreyesus-who-director-general

That petition statement is nonsense. People who sign based on that are credulous fools. Even if I thought that Ghebreyesus should resign, I wouldn't sign that petition.

Covid-19 *is* treatable. Thousands of people have been successfully treated for it.

When did the number of cases or deaths increase tenfold in five days? Worst case covid-19 doubles in about 3 days.

I stopped reading it at that point.

You do your case a disservice by mentioning it.

tdgeek

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#2464960 18-Apr-2020 16:55

Batman:

from Herald, about a (yet-to-be-released) report about our contact tracing abilities being suboptimal

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12325778

Well, how bad is it? It needs to be 1000 per day. It was improved to 700 a day two weeks ago. Sounds to me that it was sub optimal. Its just hiring staff which they have mentioned they are doing. Seems to me they have been acting on her report as she has been investigating.

mattwnz

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#2464961 18-Apr-2020 16:56

mentalinc:]

Should have been thrown into prison for several days and greeted with a substantial fine ($10K+) upon his release.

Except he is infected so the police risk getting it and spreading it themselves. I wonder if using those home detention bracelets wouldn't be an idea.

tdgeek

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#2464964 18-Apr-2020 16:58

Scott3:

I agree it is not a good look, but it is probiably better than facing up to the country with bad or unclear infomation.

My assumption would be that there is something big that they want to spend another 24 hours resolving before the officials face the media. (or something to urgent that the key people needed to attend to at once)

Hopefully this is just the supermarket incident. If they shut down the supermarket, put staff into isolation, put out a press release asking all shoppers at retentive time (or after) to go into isolation etc, All will be well.

Hopefully it is not something along the lines of somebody in the parliament "bubble" getting infected, or a bunch of today's cases coming from the asymptotic people picked up by the random testing.

In 48 hours they need to make a decision. Perhaps the hour or more for the update can better be used elsewhere?

Ge0rge

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#2464965 18-Apr-2020 16:59

@dejadeadnz , your expert opinion please, if you wouldn't mind.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121036470/coronavirus-police-order-hone-harawiras-covid19-checkpoints-to-run-correctly

Let's ignore the irony of exposing bubbles by handing out flyers, talking through open car windows etc, if indeed that is the case.

I can understand what they are trying to achieve, however it was my understanding that it was illegal for the average person to set up a roadblock on a public road and prevent people from travelling along it.

If, and it's a big if, I am correct in that assumption, surely the Police "ordering it to be run correctly" (and what that does entail isn't disclosed) are then the Police not giving support and setting precedent to what is an illegal activity?

Fred99

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#2464968 18-Apr-2020 17:02

Targeted testing

Targeted testing to help determine whether there is any undetected community transmission has taken place in Queenstown, Waikato, Canterbury, and is today taking place in Auckland.

All tests processed from the Queenstown supermarket site returned a negative result.

In Waikato, 308 people were tested across Otorohanga, Hamilton, Matamata, Cambridge, and Te Awamutu.

Those tests have all also returned negative results. All tests processed to date from the community testing in Canterbury are also negative for COVID-19.

Today in Auckland testing began at 8am at two supermarkets with the aim to collect 150 swabs at each site.

Good news

tdgeek

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#2464969 18-Apr-2020 17:03

gzt:
Scott3:

I know that the WHO has minimal credibility at this point,

Imo the WHO credibility is perfectly intact. At the same time, the WHO is under severe attack from the current American administration. The effect is to divert attention from the fact the president did not listen to his own experts. Even before that, he removed an expert panel dedicated to pandemic response for reasons only he knows. No issues with the credibility of the WHO.

Its maybe a bit like an article I read today on our PM. If she moves to Level 3 and we still get only a few cases as we are at the moment, she over reacted going to L4. If we have a few more cases she made the wrong call. Cannot win. Italy and Spain are easing restrictions, in fact many are, yet its still big there. Is that WHO's fault? Sweden had a different model, that's a fail.UK wanted herd immunity, fixed that. WHO isnt managing any of this, they give advice, but now end up to blame.

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