Paul1977: So, what are peoples predictions on whether we’ll go to level 3 at 11:59pm Wednesday?
I think if the goal is elimination then we aren’t at a point where it’s safe to lower restrictions.
Surely we need to be at a point where the only new cases are within fully isolated bubbles before it’s safe to lower the level.
This is the view of Martin Berka, Professor of Macroeconomics, Head of School of Economics and Finance at Massey University:
I think a strong economic and humane case can be made to relax the rules to level 3 at the end of the current four-week level 4 lockdown, starting from next Thursday.
International epidemiological policy models of Covid-19 predict that countries will go through cycles of easing and tightening restrictions.
It is practically impossible to eliminate Covid-19 in the short term without major social upheaval caused by an economic depression. Level 4 is no longer an optimal policy because it ignores the livelihoods of almost the entire New Zealand population. Nobody is suggesting to open up the economy completely, but I argue that level 3 restrictions are strict enough to protect lives, while also helping people recover their livelihoods.
New Zealand's level 3 rules are more stringent than Singapore, Hong Kong or South Korea, and could still cause an unprecedented recession. New Zealand shouldn't return to level 4 unless there's a threat of our health system being overrun.