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1431 posts

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  #2465506 19-Apr-2020 16:54
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Paul1977: So, what are peoples predictions on whether we’ll go to level 3 at 11:59pm Wednesday?

I think if the goal is elimination then we aren’t at a point where it’s safe to lower restrictions.

Surely we need to be at a point where the only new cases are within fully isolated bubbles before it’s safe to lower the level.

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12325831

 

This is the view of Martin Berka, Professor of Macroeconomics, Head of School of Economics and Finance at Massey University:

 

I think a strong economic and humane case can be made to relax the rules to level 3 at the end of the current four-week level 4 lockdown, starting from next Thursday.

 

International epidemiological policy models of Covid-19 predict that countries will go through cycles of easing and tightening restrictions.

 

It is practically impossible to eliminate Covid-19 in the short term without major social upheaval caused by an economic depression. Level 4 is no longer an optimal policy because it ignores the livelihoods of almost the entire New Zealand population. Nobody is suggesting to open up the economy completely, but I argue that level 3 restrictions are strict enough to protect lives, while also helping people recover their livelihoods.

 

New Zealand's level 3 rules are more stringent than Singapore, Hong Kong or South Korea, and could still cause an unprecedented recession. New Zealand shouldn't return to level 4 unless there's a threat of our health system being overrun.

 

 


bmt

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Ultimate Geek


  #2465507 19-Apr-2020 16:56
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The decision hasn't been made yet. Yes and no cases will be presented to Cabinet and Cabinet will decide. Remember that the Prime Minister is the prime minister, not only minister, not President, not Queen. She is a seat at the table, and a group of people at the table will decide.


 
 
 
 


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  #2465514 19-Apr-2020 17:23
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Paul1977: So, what are peoples predictions on whether we’ll go to level 3 at 11:59pm Wednesday?

I think if the goal is elimination then we aren’t at a point where it’s safe to lower restrictions.

Surely we need to be at a point where the only new cases are within fully isolated bubbles before it’s safe to lower the level.

 

Agree. Given that L3 is not a stretch, its for many, 3.8. Helps business which is important. For me, I can see one close family member, great, no risk. Ive no interest in ordering KFC or Pizza Hut. Ive nothing I want to buy apart from a Panasonic SD 501 bread maker, but that's not going to happen. After that, its level 4

 

The worry is that many will see L3 as freedom. Even today, someone alerted a large group going to Thompsons Track, wherever that is. Police need to state tat its one warning then arrested. $1000 instant fine. Bring a lock for your vehicle, it aint going anywhere.. 

 

 


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  #2465520 19-Apr-2020 17:25
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vexxxboy:

 

Paul1977: So, what are peoples predictions on whether we’ll go to level 3 at 11:59pm Wednesday?

I think if the goal is elimination then we aren’t at a point where it’s safe to lower restrictions.

Surely we need to be at a point where the only new cases are within fully isolated bubbles before it’s safe to lower the level.

 

the government has to be careful here , for weeks they have been saying we have to do this so we dont over run the hospitals and people die , we know its hard etc . Then just when people think that the end Level 4 is in site as cases drop etc, say sorry you can do even better we are going to extend it a for a couple more weeks. will people be willing to do it for a couple more weeks . 

 

 

I read somewhere a few days ago, some poll. Stuff or Newshub. 60% ok to extend it. No citation.


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  #2465522 19-Apr-2020 17:29
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tdgeek: The worry is that many will see L3 as freedom. Even today, someone alerted a large group going to Thompsons Track, wherever that is. Police need to state tat its one warning then arrested. $1000 instant fine. Bring a lock for your vehicle, it aint going anywhere.. 

 

People are taking risks because if they are caught, they are warned. Rinse and repeat several times before enforcement occurs! (Providing they are even caught again)

 

Why give a warning?

 

We have been living in a bubble, not under a rock!


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  #2465523 19-Apr-2020 17:31
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mattwnz:

 


The other interesting thing is that it appears that the country as a whole may move to level 3, as there hasn't been any recent discussion about only bringing some areas out of it. IMO This all goes to show that if we hadn't gone into level 4 lockdown when we did, which also gave us the chance to take stock of the systems, and improve them, we could have been in big trouble.

 

Latter point, that's right. A small few here still state that we did too little too late, and its still a glass half full.IMO we have done very very well.

 

First point, yes, not much talk of that, but early doors that was often mentioned. 


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  #2465524 19-Apr-2020 17:32
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Batman:

 

xlinknz:

 

I agree allow another week before Level 3 as that allows:

 

     

  1. The MoH to get in place their full tracing capability (which at today's media conference today was stated won't be in place for another week and is one of the 'requirements' to exit level 4)
  2. More random testing
  3. The Ministry of Education to refine the voluntary back to school requirement
  4. Business more time to prepare for level 3
  5. Another week of data

 

If they extend a week these will be the reasons cited esp. #1. The vast majority of the public won't have an issue with an extra week (or 6 days)

 

 

eh what were we doing for the last 3 weeks?

 

but if that's the case then yeah we won't be coming out of level 4.

 

 

The last 3 weeks we have been on Level 4 lockdown. 


 
 
 
 


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  #2465528 19-Apr-2020 17:38
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frednz:

 

Paul1977: So, what are peoples predictions on whether we’ll go to level 3 at 11:59pm Wednesday?

I think if the goal is elimination then we aren’t at a point where it’s safe to lower restrictions.

Surely we need to be at a point where the only new cases are within fully isolated bubbles before it’s safe to lower the level.

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12325831

 

This is the view of Martin Berka, Professor of Macroeconomics, Head of School of Economics and Finance at Massey University:

 

I think a strong economic and humane case can be made to relax the rules to level 3 at the end of the current four-week level 4 lockdown, starting from next Thursday.

 

International epidemiological policy models of Covid-19 predict that countries will go through cycles of easing and tightening restrictions.

 

It is practically impossible to eliminate Covid-19 in the short term without major social upheaval caused by an economic depression. Level 4 is no longer an optimal policy because it ignores the livelihoods of almost the entire New Zealand population. Nobody is suggesting to open up the economy completely, but I argue that level 3 restrictions are strict enough to protect lives, while also helping people recover their livelihoods.

 

New Zealand's level 3 rules are more stringent than Singapore, Hong Kong or South Korea, and could still cause an unprecedented recession. New Zealand shouldn't return to level 4 unless there's a threat of our health system being overrun.

 

 

 

 

100% L3 is really L3.8. For most individuals, but business gets relief. Supermarkets are not overrun by staff being infected. Not any AFAIK. Flouters need addressing, time to get tough.


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  #2465530 19-Apr-2020 17:40
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msukiwi:

 

tdgeek: The worry is that many will see L3 as freedom. Even today, someone alerted a large group going to Thompsons Track, wherever that is. Police need to state tat its one warning then arrested. $1000 instant fine. Bring a lock for your vehicle, it aint going anywhere.. 

 

People are taking risks because if they are caught, they are warned. Rinse and repeat several times before enforcement occurs! (Providing they are even caught again)

 

Why give a warning?

 

We have been living in a bubble, not under a rock!

 

 

Yep, but you need to give one warning. Or maybe not. Ive been outside today pottering away, heard a few motorbikes, in pairs. Must be going to the chemist.....


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  #2465532 19-Apr-2020 17:42
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@msukiwi:

 

Went to NW Wigram today. No lines, normal let you in, and handwash policy. Got flour. GOT FLOUR! Small packs, all types. The world has ended!


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Master Geek


  #2465583 19-Apr-2020 17:50
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As for Singapore being much more permissive than us.

 

Things are getting steadily tougher as Covid19 fights back quick and hard. A week and you could think you were talking about a different country, its so sad.

 

For last few days the daily new case rate has exploded in Singapore today 942 new caseshttps://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/new-high-of-942-covid-19-infections-confirmed-taking-tally-close-to-6000-cases 

 

They were a bit light on masks but have been mandatory now since April14 https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coronavirus-mandatory-for-all-to-wear-a-mask-when-out-with-exceptions-for-kids-under-2-and 

 

New Circuit Brealer rules https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/a-new-normal?hpbanner 

 

Singapore McDonalds closing , no Drive Through and deliveries either til May 4th. https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/mcdonalds-singapore-suspends-all-restaurant-operations-including-delivery-and-takeaway 

 

 


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  #2465585 19-Apr-2020 17:52
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frednz:

This is the view of Martin Berka, Professor of Macroeconomics, Head of School of Economics and Finance: New Zealand shouldn't return to level 4 unless there's a threat of our health system being overrun.


The subtext of this is that infections, and therefore about 1% deaths, are acceptable. Money is more important than lives.
5% to 10% deaths, the consequence of the health system being overrun as in Italy or France, is apparently unacceptable, I guess because if too many people die, there'll be less money made.

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  #2465595 19-Apr-2020 18:15
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I find the definition of CT frustrating.

If it can be traced to a known cluster they don’t class it as CT. But just because it can be traced doesn’t mean it wasn’t CT!

There needs to be a distinction between new cases traced to a known cluster and new cases within a known infected bubble. The former is very problematic, while the latter not so much.

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  #2465596 19-Apr-2020 18:17
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ezbee:

 

As for Singapore being much more permissive than us.

 

Things are getting steadily tougher as Covid19 fights back quick and hard. 
A week and you could think you were talking about a different country, its so sad.

 

For last few days the daily new case rate has exploded in Singapore today 942 new cases.

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/new-high-of-942-covid-19-infections-confirmed-taking-tally-close-to-6000-cases

 

They were a bit light on masks but have been mandatory now since April14
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coronavirus-mandatory-for-all-to-wear-a-mask-when-out-with-exceptions-for-kids-under-2-and

 

New Circuit Brealer rules
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/a-new-normal?hpbanner

 

Singapore McDonalds closing , no Drive Through and deliveries either til May 4th.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/mcdonalds-singapore-suspends-all-restaurant-operations-including-delivery-and-takeaway

 

 

 

 

Singapore is slightly different , they let the immigrant workers back into the country and put them back into dormitories , instant flare up, we wont be letting anyone back into the country without 14 days of quarantine . 





Common sense is not as common as you think.


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  #2465597 19-Apr-2020 18:23
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tdgeek:

 

Even today, someone alerted a large group going to Thompsons Track, wherever that is.

 

"Back road" route South from Rakaia if you're heading toward Geraldine or Fairlie etc then on to Queenstown etc and want to avoid going through Ashburton and get off SH1 to avoid heavier / slow traffic in peak times.  I guess at the moment there isn't much traffic on SH1, so it's probably a longer route - but if you wanted to try to keep "off the radar" when cheating L4 rules, then I guess... But police aren't completely stupid.

 

My son's supposed to be going that way tomorrow as an essential worker, but some equipment they were supposed to be installing hasn't been delivered, so he probably won't be going until later in the week.


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