2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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13684 posts

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#2465743 19-Apr-2020 21:44

itxtme:

Fred99:

Don't presume to know what "I realise", please.

Then feel free to discuss what I talked about in my post rather than ignoring it. There is 0 political content, just cold hard facts about what lockdown does to our economy and society, and the correlation those things also have with mortality and morbidity (not just health morbidity either).

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Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2465747 19-Apr-2020 22:08

Reasonable article here from BBC on antibody testing:

Speaking in Geneva, the World Health Organization's (WHO) Dr Maria van Kerkhove cast doubt on the benefit of rapid serology tests due to a lack of evidence around coronavirus immunity.

She said: "There are a lot of countries that are suggesting using rapid diagnostic serological tests to be able to capture what they think will be a measure of immunity.

"Right now, we have no evidence that the use of a serological test can show that an individual has immunity or is protected from reinfection."

(the other point not really covered about the presently available poor quality antibody tests is that studies carried out in various countries using them are being circulated in "preprint" papers that are being picked up by stupid / partisan media, and misinterpreted as conclusive evidence that we should just let this virus run its course and ease mitigation strategies)

Paul1977

4981 posts

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#2465748 19-Apr-2020 22:09

I just don't know. I absolutely understand the argument to go to level 3, I just think if they do it now it will be premature and we'll see a second wave.

Far more grey area in level 3 for people to take advantage of (either willfully, or ignorantly).

I think they need more time to assess how good their contact tracing 2.0 is before making a change, as I understand that it isn't even fully implemented yet.

Batman

Mad Scientist
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#2465749 19-Apr-2020 22:10

reports emerging from undeveloped nations of widespread mystery deaths - asia, africa, south america :(

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2465750 19-Apr-2020 22:13

Paul1977:

I just don't know. I absolutely understand the argument to go to level 3, I just think if they do it now it will be premature and we'll see a second wave.

Far more grey area in level 3 for people to take advantage of (either willfully, or ignorantly).

I think they need more time to assess how good their contact tracing 2.0 is before making a change, as I understand that it isn't even fully implemented yet.

I share that as a "gut feeling". I'd be more than happy to see L4 extended a bit. Even forgetting assessing our local progress, every single day new "real" information comes to light about this disease, and some of it is going to be critical to how it plays out.

ezbee

2337 posts

Uber Geek

#2465751 19-Apr-2020 22:18

freitasm:

Early action: "How a Reddit-like forum helped Taiwan prepare early for Covid-19"

Un the early hours of December 31st, Luo Yi-jun couldn’t sleep. So he browsed Taiwan’s Reddit-like forum, PTT.

As deputy director for Taiwan’s Centers for Disease Control, one post under the “Gossiping” category caught his eye: Word of an unknown disease causing pneumonia in Wuhan, China. The post included screenshots of a notice from Wuhan health authorities. One poster even asked if this was the second coming of Sars.

Luo fired off an email to his colleagues. That turned out to be Taiwan’s first warning about the disease that would turn into a global pandemic just a few months later: Covid-19.

The story was recounted by Chuang Jen-hsiang, spokesman for the CDC’s epidemic response command center, in an article from Taiwan’s Central News Agency on Thursday.

Less than a day after Luo’s email, Taiwan was already rolling out epidemic prevention measures. Border quarantine policies and screenings were implemented, and the government started communicating with the World Health Organization and mainland China epidemic authorities.

I guess you can call that situational awareness , we need to learn to be watchful.

Yes Taiwan feature in latest TIME Magazine as well , Finding Hope.

https://time.com/collection/finding-hope-coronavirus-pandemic/5820596/taiwan-coronavirus-lessons/

Still running a zero case of sorts, one imported case plus 21 on one of their Navy ships that was part of a group visiting Palau.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3918997

Total 420 cases out of Population of 23 million.

Tinkerisk

4095 posts

Uber Geek

#2465752 19-Apr-2020 22:20

Batman:
reports emerging from undeveloped nations of widespread mystery deaths - asia, africa, south america :(

And this is only the beginning ...

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ezbee

2337 posts

Uber Geek

#2465753 19-Apr-2020 22:25

Aside for the deaths do we hear much about issues people may have after recovery.

Long term lung function or other issues down the track

This case they had problems with bloodflow to extremities , can't use blood thinners while treating for CV19, so already thsi poor soul has lost a leg.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/celebrities/2020/04/18/broadway-star-nick-cordero-right-leg-amputated-coronavirus-complications/5160552002/

While much of the debate is on the binary death or survival, is there more to the cost of CV19 ??

Paul1977

4981 posts

Uber Geek

#2465755 19-Apr-2020 22:32

Fred99:

I share that as a "gut feeling". I'd be more than happy to see L4 extended a bit. Even forgetting assessing our local progress, every single day new "real" information comes to light about this disease, and some of it is going to be critical to how it plays out.

Yeah. And in my mind the first two weeks were about finding existing pre L4 cases, and the second two weeks were about finding the first generation of cases contracted during L4. I think we need a further two weeks to assess second generation L4 infections to make sure they are near zero and ALL within bubbles of an already confirmed case.

An extra two weeks at L4 now might mean many fewer weeks at L3. That would be a better end result.

neb

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#2465773 19-Apr-2020 23:47

Tinkerisk:
frankv: In flying, we have a saying: "A superior pilot uses his superior decision making skills to avoid having to use his superior flying skills".

5P - Proper Preflight Preparation Prevents Poor Performance - thanks, I'm a pilot as well ;-)

I'm not a pilot but figured I should throw in get-there-itis as well, since Trump has a severe case of it.

mattwnz

20003 posts

Uber Geek

#2465774 20-Apr-2020 00:15

ezbee:

Aside for the deaths do we hear much about issues people may have after recovery.

Long term lung function or other issues down the track

This case they had problems with bloodflow to extremities , can't use blood thinners while treating for CV19, so already thsi poor soul has lost a leg.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/celebrities/2020/04/18/broadway-star-nick-cordero-right-leg-amputated-coronavirus-complications/5160552002/

While much of the debate is on the binary death or survival, is there more to the cost of CV19 ??

Potentially all sorts of potential problems. Some people may have lung damage, and some may have kidney damage. Post viral illness like ME /CFS are also possible. But it maybe too early to tell if these maybe long lasting , and how many people will be affected. It is an awful illness if you get a bad case of it. But even a mild case can be a bad experience, as per someone on TV One tonight who has it.

mattwnz

20003 posts

Uber Geek

#2465775 20-Apr-2020 00:31

Tinkerisk:

Discussion is all well and good, but at some point decisions are made that do not end well for everyone. What I'm saying is that you can't turn the wheel back. When the health system runs full, it runs full and stays there for a while before it can return to normal. I am concerned that you have just half as many ICUs for all of NZ as we have for our city alone. Our government has decided to make the reliefs dependent on the number of inpatients on the ICUs and to close them (the reliefs) immediately if capacities decrease too much. This is only intended to be an indication with a request to weigh this up very carefully. Tomorrow we have the first, small step too and we will wait 14 days to see whether these measures settle down safely.

This is all true, and the lack of ICU beds in NZ has always been the major problem. But if you look at the graphs in the report https://cpb-ap-se2.wpmucdn.com/blogs.auckland.ac.nz/dist/d/75/files/2017/01/Stochastic-Model-FINAL-RELEASE.pdf , which we are crushing, it appears there are significant benefits in staying in level 4 for longer, in keeping the numbers down to a few and that maybe our only chance to actually eliminate it., which is similar to figure 7, but with no further cases. Basically if we go into level 3 too early and it causes cases to grow again,we face figure 3 or 4, and we have to go into level 4 again, which has been suggested by the PM, then that may not give us another change to eliminate. Once numbers increase to a certain level, then the staffing needed to do the tracing increases significantly,and it takes them a lot longer, and the virus is too fast for that, because we are already up to 14 days behind the virus at all times. I am not sure how many businesses could survive another level 4 lockdown without significant government help for the businesses, which I can't see happening. There was an economist on TV tonight who said this is going to cost NZ 50 billion, and he was suggesting printing money and wealth tax, which are going to hurt savers bad. I thought from the beginning that they would need at least 6 weeks in level 4, which is 3 cycles, and then to look at it again. But I will be surprised if they don't extend it until the Tuesday after ANZAC day.

Tinkerisk

4095 posts

Uber Geek

#2465777 20-Apr-2020 00:45

Folks, just to give you an idea of the economy marathon mentioned by others here before:

The working council and the employer of the company I'm working for has negotiated two days ago a contract lasting at least 'til end of the year (... so far, might be extended afterwards). This affects THOUSANDS of highly qualified people facing short-time work and production adaption but ALL recognized as mandatory for the company for the time to come. This is not a matter of course.

The equation is easy: less money, less to spend, less income for others. You can make fun to yourself in a single country to a certain degree (holidays in own country, buy local, dance around your own yard, etc.) but not with less money and/or jobs than before since it will be used now for the most important things. The US with it's hire & fire mentality has already 20 million unemployed within a very few weeks. It's called recession and follows soon the health problems already to tackle.

Just my two cents.

Paul1977

4981 posts

Uber Geek

#2465780 20-Apr-2020 00:56

mattwnz:

This is all true, and the lack of ICU beds in NZ has always been the major problem. But if you look at the graphs in the report https://cpb-ap-se2.wpmucdn.com/blogs.auckland.ac.nz/dist/d/75/files/2017/01/Stochastic-Model-FINAL-RELEASE.pdf , which we are crushing, it appears there are significant benefits in staying in level 4 for longer, in keeping the numbers down to a few and that maybe our only chance to actually eliminate it., which is similar to figure 7, but with no further cases. Basically if we go into level 3 too early and it causes cases to grow again,we face figure 3 or 4, and we have to go into level 4 again, which has been suggested by the PM, then that may not give us another change to eliminate. Once numbers increase to a certain level, then the staffing needed to do the tracing increases significantly,and it takes them a lot longer, and the virus is too fast for that, because we are already up to 14 days behind the virus at all times. I am not sure how many businesses could survive another level 4 lockdown without significant government help for the businesses, which I can't see happening. There was an economist on TV tonight who said this is going to cost NZ 50 billion, and he was suggesting printing money and wealth tax, which are going to hurt savers bad. I thought from the beginning that they would need at least 6 weeks in level 4, which is 3 cycles, and then to look at it again. But I will be surprised if they don't extend it until the Tuesday after ANZAC day.

From everything I've seen and read my vote (if I had one) would be for a further 2 weeks in L4 (to make 6 weeks in total). With the wage subsidies I would hope most businesses could handle the extra 2 weeks for the long term benefit.

Paul1977

4981 posts

Uber Geek

#2465781 20-Apr-2020 01:04

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/04/coronavirus-poll-results-should-new-zealand-leave-covid-19-lockdown-this-week.html

On Saturday, Newshub asked readers if they thought New Zealand should leave lockdown next week. Of the 44,768 responses, 28,716 voters - just over 64 percent - said no.

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