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  #2466154 20-Apr-2020 13:41
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tdgeek:

 

When you referece Covid-19 half this country sees that as an economic then health issue, the other half a health then economic issue

 

A NZ professor said it might be gone in 14 days. If that did happen, Im sure we could confirm that before 2022. I feel we can may start considering that before 2020 is out, although, it would largely be case free before that. My opinion

 

 

Covid-19 is a global issue. We cannot say we are in clear until we have a treatment, vaccine and the spread globally under control. If it becomes endemic then we have a whole different scenario. Having no new cases in NZ in say two weeks while excellent is only one small step. To quote Winston Churchill 

 

 "this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning". I believe that 2022/23 is a reasonable time frame to reach a point where we can let our guard down. 





Mike
Change Management Consultant
The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

He waka eke noa


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  #2466157 20-Apr-2020 13:43
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tdgeek:

Paul1977: 9 new cases today from just over 3000 tests.

EDIT: @cshwone beat me to it.


Beat me too, I was on the blower.


Good result.



I don’t see it as a good result. Same number of new cases as yesterday, but from significantly less tests.

I see any day that is not better than the day before as a bad result.

 
 
 
 


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  #2466163 20-Apr-2020 13:51
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Paul1977:

 

I don’t see it as a good result. Same number of new cases as yesterday, but from significantly less tests.

I see any day that is not better than the day before as a bad result.

 

You have to remember that people generally have to feel ill to go for a test. As both the PM and the doc said last week the test numbers from that perspective are declining as all normally passed on illness such as colds and flu are not being communicated at the moment which is a side benefit of the lockdown. So low test numbers are not really that relevant.

 

The sentinel testing is increasing though with the two Auckland locations from Saturday being negative.


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  #2466165 20-Apr-2020 13:52
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Paul1977:

I don’t see it as a good result. Same number of new cases as yesterday, but from significantly less tests.

I see any day that is not better than the day before as a bad result.

 

It doesnt seem to align with tests, its low, whether they test 1500 or 3500. Thats how it's been going lately. It appears to me that people get sick then get support and a test and caught. Each of these "dregs" of the virus, of what is left after the lockdown, still get sick, they will go out of circulation for 14 days minimum. Fewer and fewer to infect others. Its like the bottom of a descending Bell Curve, its active for a good while, but low.


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  #2466166 20-Apr-2020 13:55
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Paul1977:
I don’t see it as a good result. Same number of new cases as yesterday, but from significantly less tests.

I see any day that is not better than the day before as a bad result.

 

And I have a feeling level 3 would be postponed at least for another week purely based on results numbers, these flattened and not really declining for a week now.





helping others at evgenyk.nz


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  #2466168 20-Apr-2020 13:59
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kobiak:

 

And I have a feeling level 3 would be postponed at least for another week purely based on results numbers, these flattened and not really declining for a week now.

 

 

You don't feel its the end session of the Bell Curve running its course?


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  #2466171 20-Apr-2020 14:05
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tdgeek:

 

kobiak:

 

And I have a feeling level 3 would be postponed at least for another week purely based on results numbers, these flattened and not really declining for a week now.

 

 

You don't feel its the end session of the Bell Curve running its course?

 

 

Yeah I believe government would want better than current state.





helping others at evgenyk.nz


 
 
 
 


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  #2466175 20-Apr-2020 14:14
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Fair enough @Kobiak   Its low and steady, which is good, lower would be better. I wonder of they have a number they are targetting, such as 5 or lower for x days.

 

 

 

A mate tells me he reckons his teen will want to hang out with his mates. Thats going to be rife


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  #2466176 20-Apr-2020 14:17
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tdgeek:

Paul1977:

I don’t see it as a good result. Same number of new cases as yesterday, but from significantly less tests.

I see any day that is not better than the day before as a bad result.


It doesnt seem to align with tests, its low, whether they test 1500 or 3500. Thats how it's been going lately. It appears to me that people get sick then get support and a test and caught. Each of these "dregs" of the virus, of what is left after the lockdown, still get sick, they will go out of circulation for 14 days minimum. Fewer and fewer to infect others. Its like the bottom of a descending Bell Curve, its active for a good while, but low.



Covid19 Modelling expert says lockdown should be extended by two weeks to allow it to be eliminated and so we can get down to no new cases a day, or maybe the odd one.


http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121123513/coronavirus-modelling-expert-says-lockdown-should-be-extended-two-weeks?cid=app-android

The problem I see with going into level 3 with the current number of daily cases we are now getting is that because there is no evidence it has been eliminated yet, and the potential infection rate under level 3 being higher than level 4 , we won't be able to actually eliminate it. The modelling does show various scenarios. Imo if we exit level 3 without elimination it will either remain lowish and we will never be able to get out of level 3. Or it will again grow and wer wil be forced back into level 4 relatively quickly as we don't have the ICU beds they have in Europe to cope with larger numbers. But we really only have one chance to eliminate it without a second level 4 lockdown ,which if that did eventuate, would likely have to be a lot longer than the first, to make sure we eliminated it this time.

The other thing is not all people with this virus are being detected by the system. The are obviously those that never show symptoms. But there will also be others that just won't get tested if sick with the virus and go to work. There appears to have been several cases of this occurring already in level 4, including one recent case where they are trying to work out how someone in one small town got it. Level 4 does help to kill transmission off from those people by keeping others isolated from them but level 4 needs a reasonable period of time to work. Out also helps to protect against idiots who are out and about not following the lockdown.
Also the PM never said level 4 would only need for 4 weeks, that was just the initial period and would be reassessed and extended depending on how it tracked.

Also we don't have any real knowledge yet if it is further in our community. The amount of 'random' tests that have been done is nowhere near enough. 1000 tests is like looking for a needle in a haystack. They need a far larger sample size which requires tens of thousands of tests to be done which will take weeks unless they open more labs. IMO these should have been done when the PM told the country a few weeks ago that we need to Test Test Test. Otherwise we are largely flying blind.

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  #2466183 20-Apr-2020 14:30
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cshwone:

The sentinel testing is increasing though with the two Auckland locations from Saturday being negative.



It is nowhere near enough. They had an expert on tv one news saying that they need to be doing tens of thousands of tests to get a large enough sample size. Using such a a small sample risks giving a false impression to those making a decision imo

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  #2466186 20-Apr-2020 14:37
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mattwnz:

 

Covid19 Modelling expert says lockdown should be extended by two weeks to allow it to be eliminated and so we can get down to no new cases a day, or maybe the odd one.


http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121123513/coronavirus-modelling-expert-says-lockdown-should-be-extended-two-weeks?cid=app-android

The problem I see with going into level 3 with the current number of daily cases we are now getting is that because there is no evidence it has been eliminated yet, and the potential infection rate under level 3 being higher than level 4 , we won't be able to actually eliminate it. The modelling does show various scenarios. Imo if we exit level 3 without elimination it will either remain lowish and we will never be able to get out of level 3. Or it will again grow and wer wil be forced back into level 4 relatively quickly as we don't have the ICU beds they have in Europe to cope with larger numbers. But we really only have one chance to eliminate it without a second level 4 lockdown ,which if that did eventuate, would likely have to be a lot longer than the first, to make sure we eliminated it this time.

The other thing is not all people with this virus are being detected by the system. The are obviously those that never show symptoms. But there will also be others that just won't get tested if sick with the virus and go to work. The sitar to have been several cases of this occurring already in level 4, including one recent case where they are trying to work out how someone in one small town got it. Level 4 does help to kill transmission off from those people by keeping others isolated from them but level 4 needs a reasonable period of time to work. Out also helps to protect against idiots who are out and about not following the lockdown.
Also the PM never said level 4 would only need for 4 weeks, that was just the initial period and would be reassessed and extended depending on how it tracked.

 

 

 

"In just a few weeks our model suggests we might be more likely than not to have eliminated the disease."  Then he said zero new cases, or one or two?

 

There is no doubt that the longer Level 4 goes for the better, health outcome wise. But 18 days from today to more likely eliminate the disease from NZ? Is it that easy? Why not 3 weeks then it must be gone? 4 weeks and guaranteed? He is playing with numbers as if its a game.

 

I have no issue with another two weeks. I'd like it down to 5 a day. It wont be gone, not even aftyer a month but it will be very manageable. I believe it is manageable after ANZAC, another one or two weeks after that is fine with me


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  #2466235 20-Apr-2020 14:50
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Paul1977: ... I don’t see it as a good result. Same number of new cases as yesterday, but from significantly less tests.

I see any day that is not better than the day before as a bad result.

 

The results coming through over the 24 hours to 9 am today will be mostly from tests performed a day or two beforehand.  So the low number of tests yesterday should have relatively little if any impact on the results released today.


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  #2466249 20-Apr-2020 14:50
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Another 18 days probably won’t completely eliminate it from the country, but it may be long enough to fully contain it within bubbles if known infections. If that could be achieved then it’s just a matter for allowing those isolated bubbles to burn out.

It’s very easy for us armchair experts to say what the best course of action is. But if the experts are saying there is a chance a 2 week extension could eliminate it, then can we really afford to risk not doing it?

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  #2466319 20-Apr-2020 15:11
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Paul1977: Another 18 days probably won’t completely eliminate it from the country, but it may be long enough to fully contain it within bubbles if known infections. If that could be achieved then it’s just a matter for allowing those isolated bubbles to burn out.

It’s very easy for us armchair experts to say what the best course of action is. But if the experts are saying there is a chance a 2 week extension could eliminate it, then can we really afford to risk not doing it?

 

 

 

Im positive with how its going here, its clear that some think far too positive. But there is no way that 18 days or 28 days will eliminate it. How can we contain it in bubbles when the bubbles at home mix with at school mix with at work? If thats the case they wont burn out, they will be kept simmering and very alive. So you cant wait till they burn out, they need to be managed. Mopping up as Ive been mentioning and being criticised for. It won't fix itself even though an expert says 14 days and it should/might be eliminated.

 

AFAIK the plan always was to get it down, then manage the bits and pieces, how many times as Dr A mentioned ring fencing lately? Daily

 

Personally I feel after Anzac is fine for L3, as its low enough to manage it locally and I've no issue with a week after that either.WE have seen what L4 can do, yet L3 which is still restrictive seems to be seen as a free for all. Flouters may make it so

 

 

 

If flouters have the same rules from L4, all bets are off.     No warnings. They will be more ready to party/catch up/[insert activity here] than they ever were in L4


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  #2466326 20-Apr-2020 15:19
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tdgeek:

 

Im positive with how its going here, its clear that some think far too positive. But there is no way that 18 days or 28 days will eliminate it. How can we contain it in bubbles when the bubbles at home mix with at school mix with at work? If thats the case they wont burn out, they will be kept simmering and very alive.

 

 

I mean contain it within known infected bubbles. Those bubbles should be fully isolated from any other bubbles.

 

The highlighted bit in your quote above is exactly why we shouldn't go to L3 too early.


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