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15854 posts

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  #2427656 26-Feb-2020 18:02
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dafman:
mattwnz:

 

Maybe, but shares are already seen as way overvalued, partly due to the historically low interest rates, where people who want some return on their savings have put their money into shares, or houses. Peoples kiwisavers could also be badly affected depending on how it plays out and the fund they are in, and how the sharemarket reacts over the longer term. So these sorts of events can jolt big corrections.

 


Shares and houses are a massive bubble, if coronavirus causes a correction, it's the only good thing I can see coming out of it.

 

 

 

It is really the knock on effects that these cause that are the problem. NZ banks are  highly exposed to NZ house lending. If they have lent more than the house is actually able to sell for, then they could have  a massive problem.


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  #2427687 26-Feb-2020 18:50
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mattwnz:

 

 

 

 

 

It is really the knock on effects that these cause that are the problem. NZ banks are  highly exposed to NZ house lending. If they have lent more than the house is actually able to sell for, then they could have  a massive problem.

 

 

Won't happen.


 
 
 
 


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  #2427688 26-Feb-2020 18:55
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From all these posts, and thanks @fred99 for all the data and technical stuff, there is so much info to digest. Complicated by some Govts being less than stellar with real numbers. 

 

An article today, somewhere, when discussing Italy, Iran, etc, says its uncontained. I'd agree with that. We will end up with a list of countries, with infection numbers, death numbers, and that may hone in the real effect of the virus. I still dont follow why Hubei has such a high death rate compared to elsewhere in China. Its as though I get all the stats then throw them up in the air. And its probably other Govts as well as China where the numbers may be massaged.maybe even WHO, to reduce unrest.


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  #2427689 26-Feb-2020 19:00
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This may also be the temporary end of having open fruit , vegetable and nut bins.

One of my wife's colleagues had a run in with a shopper who was wearing a face mask who took it off and sneezed over an open bin of fruit.

Gross. Epidemic or not.

Wonder if washing will remove viral contaminants.
Probably best to dunk in a bucket of diluted beach for a few minutes ?




My thoughts are no longer my own and is probably representative of our media-controlled government


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  #2427691 26-Feb-2020 19:04
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tdgeek:

 

mattwnz:

 

 

 

 

 

It is really the knock on effects that these cause that are the problem. NZ banks are  highly exposed to NZ house lending. If they have lent more than the house is actually able to sell for, then they could have  a massive problem.

 

 

Won't happen.

 

 

Why is that, when we have had a massive bull market for over a decade? Do you think the Government would bail them out or start print money to prevent it. I think that would be likely that they would need to step in.  People forget about previous financial meltdowns, the last big one being in 2007, and busts are part of the cycles. Prior to the 2007 meltdown, people wouldn't have thought that NZers would lose billions of dollars, many their life savings,  in finance companies. 


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  #2427693 26-Feb-2020 19:08
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SepticSceptic: This may also be the temporary end of having open fruit , vegetable and nut bins.

One of my wife's colleagues had a run in with a shopper who was wearing a face mask who took it off and sneezed over an open bin of fruit.

Gross. Epidemic or not.

Wonder if washing will remove viral contaminants.
Probably best to dunk in a bucket of diluted beach for a few minutes ?

 

Diluted beach? If the tide is out??  :-)

 

There has been a few remedies listed here and there, but as per my previous post, not all gets lost in the media frenzy, so no idea what may be of help. Which is what the masses need to know so they can at least make some form of containment contribution.


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  #2427696 26-Feb-2020 19:21
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tdgeek:

SepticSceptic: This may also be the temporary end of having open fruit , vegetable and nut bins.

One of my wife's colleagues had a run in with a shopper who was wearing a face mask who took it off and sneezed over an open bin of fruit.

Gross. Epidemic or not.

Wonder if washing will remove viral contaminants.
Probably best to dunk in a bucket of diluted beach for a few minutes ?


Diluted beach? If the tide is out??  :-)




Lol. A handful of beach sand in a bucket of seawater

Shake it all up.
Retain a teaspoon of mixture.
Throw out the bucket of seawater.
Fill bucket with fresh water.
Add the teaspoon of seawater mixture to the water.
Repeat process 10x.
Miracle wash for removing viral contaminants from your fruit and vegetables.

/s






My thoughts are no longer my own and is probably representative of our media-controlled government


 
 
 
 


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  #2427697 26-Feb-2020 19:21
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mattwnz:

 

 

 

Why is that, when we have had a massive bull market for over a decade? Do you think the Government would bail them out or start print money to prevent it. I think that would be likely that they would need to step in.  People forget about previous financial meltdowns, the last big one being in 2007, and busts are part of the cycles. Prior to the 2007 meltdown, people wouldn't have thought that NZers would lose billions of dollars, many their life savings,  in finance companies. 

 

 

Shares are bought on opinion. Company A has growth potential, its not favourable, so the P/E is low, its a great buy. Or you buy Apple or Tesla where the P/E is super high, but I dont care about dividend yield, as it will rise forever......

 

This virus is a problem, maybe a BIG problem, but it will go away, as they all have done. In the interim. company A is still as great as it was pre virus, but the shares drop. Smart people will buy at the low. BUT, it may get worse, but it will all go back to normal one day. The last GFC was caused by the US sub prime market. We didn't have a lot of exposure, as our banking system isnt joined at the hip globally. But shares will follow other shares so they slumped. And they recovered as always.

 

Banks here have mortgages. yes, maybe house prices drop (in sympathy) . But the house is still there, the mortgages get paid as who wants to walk away (as in the US). The Govt could step in to guarantee the banks negative equity on some mortgages, but unless we have mass unemployment, those mortgages will still get paid. If there was an unemployment growth if the virus spread far and wide, its better for the Govt to act as an underwriter, to stop the bank foreclosing, and underwrite increased mortgage terms to keep us in our houses. An actual real Govt cost would be small as no one wants to foreclose a house. Its a bit like Govt giving free tax cuts. Its hurts them but it boosts the economy. The Govt isnt a profit organisation, if the tax cuts cause a mini boom, they get the benefit of lower unemployment benefits, more Income Tax, more GST. 


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  #2427711 26-Feb-2020 19:42
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We aren't well placed

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/119818727/coronavirus-warnings-of-looming-crisis-as-prime-minister-health-ministry-remain-confident-in-measures

 

I know someone who arrived from Japan just days ago. At work, at the gym, at the supermarket, all good :-(


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  #2427722 26-Feb-2020 20:11
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How Coronavirus Is Impacting the Games Industry

IGN

To lessen Coronavirus spread, video game companies have begun pulling out events that require travel.

Sony, Facebook, and more will not have a presence at GDC, PAX East, and other gaming events.


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  #2427723 26-Feb-2020 20:18
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SepticSceptic: Lol. A handful of beach sand in a bucket of seawater

Shake it all up.
Retain a teaspoon of mixture.
Throw out the bucket of seawater.
Fill bucket with fresh water.
Add the teaspoon of seawater mixture to the water.
Repeat process 10x.
Miracle wash for removing viral contaminants from your fruit and vegetables.


Disturbing fact: 10 million viruses in one drop of seawater

“Although we can’t see them with our naked eye, marine microbes are the dominant life forms in our oceans,” says Rachel J. Parsons, first author and a microbial oceanographer with the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Science. “They comprise 95 percent of the living biomass in the oceans—more than all the krill, fish, and whales put together.

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  #2427733 26-Feb-2020 20:47
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MikeB4:
The financial markets should not be looked upon as a barometer for this, they generally behave like demented reef fish and as jittery as a field mouse in a cattery.


There is something very odd about the financial markets' activities: since the outbreak started until last weekend, almost no reaction, then three days (so far) of panic.
It's been pretty obvious for at least three or four weeks to anyone paying attention [e.g.on GeekZone ;)] that a major outbreak is certain and a pandemic almost certain, yet "the markets" continued fat & happy on their way, until they "suddenly noticed" last weekend.

You'd almost think that gave the big end of town enough time to get their hedges and shorts in place before crying "panic" and spooking the lemmings over the cliff

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  #2427743 26-Feb-2020 21:08
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It is widely known that the Chinese government was pumping money into the markets, buying stocks to keep the prices up.

I assume this was more about controlling the narrative, than allowing big investors to exit without losses.


Perhaps the have stopped doing that now the international news is focused on Italy and Iran. Perhaps it was always the plan to stop after a while. Perhaps they are still buying, but are overwhelmed by people dumping stocks.

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  #2427821 27-Feb-2020 00:13
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tdgeek:

 

We aren't well placed

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/119818727/coronavirus-warnings-of-looming-crisis-as-prime-minister-health-ministry-remain-confident-in-measures

 

I know someone who arrived from Japan just days ago. At work, at the gym, at the supermarket, all good :-(

 

 

 

 

I would have thought anyone returning from those countries where there has been a spike in cases, should be at least self isolating themselves.I also would have thought that we would be putting in travel bans, like we did with China, so all countries affected by this are being treated in the same way. Something has failed badly, when this crisis is all caused by a 'bat'.


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  #2427834 27-Feb-2020 06:22
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PolicyGuy: 

You'd almost think that gave the big end of town enough time to get their hedges and shorts in place before crying "panic" and spooking the lemmings over the cliff



Hanlon's razor

It may have been obvious to some that there was a 'likelihood' of pandemic once cases began to pop up in places like Iran.

To the average person who finds it difficult to winnow reality from the chaff of underestimations, overestimations, half-truths, quarter truths and outright lies buried in the race-to-become-entertainment that mainstream media's become (ahem - NZ Herald), not so much.

Respected and science based organisations (the WHO no longer uses the word 'Pandemic') have been downplaying this - in in effort to prevent trade disruption, economic damage and panic. Predictions from large companies were that this would be but a blip in the bottom line.
Infectious-disease experts have been saying it appears less menacing than first thought, maybe more like seasonal flu, and to a point they're right.

This Deutsche Welle article "Why coronavirus fears are disproportionate compared with other health risks" is typical - truthful, science based and calming.
The graphs and charts clearly show the comparatively small number of affected people.. but of course if you simply move the digits for the case numbers 3 or 4 places to the left, calm morphs into fear.. and everyone sells at once.

In the summer I like to visit Head-smashed-in-Buffalo-Jump a World Heritage Site not far away.
It's well worth a visit - for 6,000 years the Blackfoot people would 'harvest' buffalo here in a very clever way.

They noticed the vast herds of gigantic animals had leaders, a few buffalo matriarchs, who'd watch for danger, lead the herd on to new, greener pastures.

Warriors, dressed in wolf skins, would approach from a distance, and slowly begin to move the leaders along - the herd following, at first in a gigantic calm mass, but as the movement gathered steam, wolf-warriors would leap from hollows and behind rocks funneling the now-panicked animals into drive lanes that ended at a large precipice.

As they reached the cliff edge the lead buffalo would try to stop, but pressure from the thundering herd behind would carry them over. A great waterfall of buffalo falling to the prairie below. There's a 50' deep stratified layer of bone stretching along the base of these cliffs - showing the harvest was repeated, over and over..


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