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739 posts

Ultimate Geek

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  #2467205 21-Apr-2020 16:40
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frankv:

 

DS248:

 

One perhaps more subtle point is that the number of new cases given in the press release each day is made up of cases confirmed over the past two or three days (and sometimes some from even longer ago.  The trend vs 'Press Release Date' can give a distorted picture of what is happening; eg over the last four days, the numbers of new cases were:  8, 13, 9, 9So the 'headline' press release trend looks flat with yesterday's number of new cases one more than the number four days ago.  Not so comforting with L3 only six days away. 

 

But when plotted against date of confirmation ('Date of report' in the MOH individual case data), the trend looks quite a bit more positive for the latest four days, with total new cases, 16-19 Apr being: 17, 12, 10, 7*.  Note that the last numbers are tentative; data released later today may change them a bit (*eg. possibly add one or two to the last number). 

 

 

I think you have the dates a bit back to front. I believe the "Date of report" is the date that the person was first identified as a probable case, and given a test. On that day, or probably the day after due to a lag in reporting, they will be included in the "new probable" count. Two or three or more days later their test comes back, and, if positive, they are included in the press release count of "new confirmed cases" that day, even though the actual test was done 2 or 3 days earlier.  Their record is then moved from the "Probable" page of the spreadsheet to the "Confirmed" page, but it still retains the same "Date of report". So Mondays and Tuesdays have lower "confirmed" counts than Wednesdays, since they relate to smaller numbers of tests done mostly during the weekend.

 

I don't know what a "day" means in these reports; I suspect it's probably 9am to 9am, rather than midnight to midnight, since the spreadsheet has a cutoff time of 9am each day.

 

 

It would help if they provided clearer definitions of some items, and especially the date.  Mind you there is a lot they could do to improve the data, such as split the 70+ age group into at least 70-79, and 80+.  And include outcomes; eg. Hospitalised, in Isolation, Recovered, or Deceased similar to Singapore.  

 

However, I very much doubt it is "the date that the person was first identified as a probable case, and given a test" (ie. test date).  For example, in the data to 9 am 20 Apr (yesterday's press release) includes 5 confirmed (& 2 probable) cases with a "Date of report" = 19 Apr.  There is no way that 5 people were first identified, tested, and confirmed positive (test result back) all on the day before the press release.

 

Even more so, the data released 9 am on the 16th.  That includes 2 confirmed (0 probably) cases with "Date of report" = 16 Apr.  That would require those cases to have been first identified, tested, test result back and forwarded to MOH all in the 9 hours to 9 am on the day of the press release, which is basically impossible.

 

Fairly confident that the "Date of report" here is the date that the on the test lab reports. That is, in the above case the lab reported the result early on the morning of 16 Apr & it may even have gone straight to MOH in these two cases (as well as to the testing organisation).  Any in these two cases the reports came in before the 9 am cut off time for the press release on the 16th.

 

 

 

 


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Uber Geek

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  #2467206 21-Apr-2020 16:43
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nzkiwiman:

 

I do wish that we had some additional information around the new cases; if we got 2 today - then, when were they actually tested, when did they seek a test, when did they start getting symptoms and who are they connected to that has COVID already. (maybe they do have that information and they don't feel that it is required to be made public). From that information we might be able to see how long the virus is taking to spread around bubbles ...

 

 

The "new cases" is not new cases reported today... it is new cases *confirmed* today. There were no new  cases reported yesterday, apart from 2 probables.

 

 


 
 
 
 


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Ultimate Geek

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  #2467216 21-Apr-2020 16:59
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DS248: ...

 

 

 

Interestingly, just before lockdown we were only 6-7 days behind where Germany was in terms of new cases per day per capita.

 

 


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  #2467234 21-Apr-2020 17:24
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clinty:

 

So it appears some of the case in the past few days are actually people that have been infected prior to lockdown, are still symptomatic and only getting tested now

 

Clint

 

 

Interesting, thanks for finding - clears up a bit of a nagging issue I had with "how we are still getting confirmed cases inside lockdown?"
Does raise a few more questions, but that is just my curious mind and not fully understanding everything

 

 


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  #2467251 21-Apr-2020 17:55
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nzkiwiman:

 

clinty:

 

So it appears some of the case in the past few days are actually people that have been infected prior to lockdown, are still symptomatic and only getting tested now

 

Clint

 

 

Interesting, thanks for finding - clears up a bit of a nagging issue I had with "how we are still getting confirmed cases inside lockdown?"
Does raise a few more questions, but that is just my curious mind and not fully understanding everything

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking at some of the dates on some of the cases on their website, I do wonder if some cases haven't been when symptoms have occurred after 14 days. Which would indicate quarantining would need to be longer than just 14 days. The alternative is that people haven't got themselves tested until well after they started having symptoms, which is also a concern. People need to get tested as soon has they have symptoms. 


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  #2467253 21-Apr-2020 17:59
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ben28:

 

I'd like to know how many of our positive tests are for people that were asymptomatic, who never went on  to experience any of the symptoms.

 

As there are reported high rates of asymptomatic positive cases in various closed groups eg the aircraft carrier off Guam, and the 3000 people in the Italian village.

 

If New Zealand has none , then why? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

They likely wouldn't be tested in NZ, due to you having to have some symptoms, such as a cough, in order to be tested. I understand they have tested school students before who were at school with someone who was infected, but I don't think that is commonly done. But the test is apparently not very accurate anyway unless you have symptoms. So some will be liekly be false negatives. NZ hasn't done any widespread testing, just some relatively small  sample testing in certain places, so IMO we don't really have that much data yet.


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  #2467254 21-Apr-2020 18:01
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frankv:

 

The "new cases" is not new cases reported today... it is new cases *confirmed* today. There were no new  cases reported yesterday, apart from 2 probables.

 

 

 


sound like the Battle of Britain 





Software Engineer
   (the practice of real science, engineering and management)


 
 
 
 


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  #2467257 21-Apr-2020 18:07
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Tinkerisk:

 

 

 

What should I say? Mainly business in combination will simple minded and vanity people.

 

The stupid runs, the clever one waits, the wise man goes into the garden.

 

 

 

 

It sort of reminds me of the story involving a cyclone, where everyone thinks the worst of the storm  is over, and they all run outside into  the sun. But what they don't realise is that it is just the eye of the storm, which is a calm spot,  and the worst of the storm is yet to come. They just don't know it. I hope this is not the case here with some countries.

 

I noticed the WHO warned today that the worst is yet to come. So IMO they are essentially sending a warning to all countries that are easing their lockdowns, to not think that the worst is over.


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  #2467262 21-Apr-2020 18:10
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tdgeek:

 

Whats the feel on the length of L3? I feel it should be a month. They can relax some very easy to be sage activities suich as golf (which is happening) duck shooting season, skiing, lots of activities in a 2 hour drive that distancing is easy. Makes L3 lockdown more palatable

 

 

 

 

They have already said 2 weeks and then reassess. So there is an expectation that it is two weeks, anything over that IMO will receive push back from some in the business community IMO. Personally I don't think we can ease off much more until we have reached zero new cases and can show it has been eliminated, otherwise we will lose the hardwork we have mostly all sacrificed. Teh last thing we want is to go back into level 4 again/  It really comes down to what the infection rates prove to be. I noticed that one town wants to remain in level 4.


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Ultimate Geek

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  #2467269 21-Apr-2020 18:16
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They have already said 2 weeks.



Pretty sure they said they would reassess at the end of two weeks. I don't think you will find as much push-back as you have said. Most people I have spoken to were resigned to the fact that we would be doing more l4 than what we have done. It came as a surprise to see it lifted to l3. Now that may have just been "expect the worst, anything else is a bonus", but I expect l3 to go on longer than 2 weeks, and will be surprised at anything else - except maybe going back to l4.

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  #2467272 21-Apr-2020 18:23
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Ge0rge:

 

They have already said 2 weeks.



Pretty sure they said they would reassess at the end of two weeks. I don't think you will find as much push-back as you have said. Most people I have spoken to were resigned to the fact that we would be doing more l4 than what we have done. It came as a surprise to see it lifted to l3. Now that may have just been "expect the worst, anything else is a bonus", but I expect l3 to go on longer than 2 weeks, and will be surprised at anything else - except maybe going back to l4.

 

 

 

I think they also said level 4 would be initially 4 weeks, and they would also reassess once they had data. But that has resulted in so much complaining about the extra week in level 4 from various sectors.Their argument seemed to be that we can't stay locked down ion level 4 forever and Australia is far more relaxed and are apparently doing well.
But that isn't coming from people I have spoken to. They were all happy for an extra couple of weeks, and expected a 6 week level 4 lockdown from the start. What has occurred is seen as a bit of a compromise by the experts. Ideally they have said 6 weeks would have been best. 


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  #2467281 21-Apr-2020 18:39
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nzkiwiman:

 

I do wish that we had some additional information around the new cases; if we got 2 today - then, when were they actually tested, when did they seek a test, when did they start getting symptoms and who are they connected to that has COVID already. (maybe they do have that information and they don't feel that it is required to be made public). From that information we might be able to see how long the virus is taking to spread around bubbles ...

 

 

I agree.But what we see is super positive. Schools are an issue. But, the way things are tracking, no infector will walk through the gates at school. Is infection guaranteed? No. But what can you guarantee here?

 

Forget any demographic, the trend is what we want to see


neb

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  #2467282 21-Apr-2020 18:42
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Social distancing, Russian style:

 

 


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  #2467284 21-Apr-2020 18:47
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mattwnz:

 

tdgeek:

 

Whats the feel on the length of L3? I feel it should be a month. They can relax some very easy to be sage activities suich as golf (which is happening) duck shooting season, skiing, lots of activities in a 2 hour drive that distancing is easy. Makes L3 lockdown more palatable

 

 

 

 

They have already said 2 weeks and then reassess. So there is an expectation that it is two weeks, anything over that IMO will receive push back from some in the business community IMO. Personally I don't think we can ease off much more until we have reached zero new cases and can show it has been eliminated, otherwise we will lose the hardwork we have mostly all sacrificed. Teh last thing we want is to go back into level 4 again/  It really comes down to what the infection rates prove to be. I noticed that one town wants to remain in level 4.

 

 

Agree. L3 for me as I treat it, is L4 with a few bonuses. Annecdotally, great we are exiting the lockdown (see any news site), but L3 is lockdown for most. We need to treat it like that, but humanity will often see it as a break. As I posted, if we can release some activities as safe, that will ease peoples "stay at home" anxiety


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  #2467286 21-Apr-2020 18:53
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mattwnz:

 



Pretty sure they said they would reassess at the end of two weeks. I don't think you will find as much push-back as you have said. Most people I have spoken to were resigned to the fact that we would be doing more l4 than what we have done. It came as a surprise to see it lifted to l3. Now that may have just been "expect the worst, anything else is a bonus", but I expect l3 to go on longer than 2 weeks, and will be surprised at anything else - except maybe going back to l4.

 

 

 

I think they also said level 4 would be initially 4 weeks, and they would also reassess once they had data. But that has resulted in so much complaining about the extra week in level 4 from various sectors.Their argument seemed to be that we can't stay locked down ion level 4 forever and Australia is far more relaxed and are apparently doing well.
But that isn't coming from people I have spoken to. They were all happy for an extra couple of weeks, and expected a 6 week level 4 lockdown from the start. What has occurred is seen as a bit of a compromise by the experts. Ideally they have said 6 weeks would have been best. 

 

 

Yep, there was a poll recently, and it did say it was unofficial, that 60% were happy with a longer L4. That tells me that us conservative Kiwis would rather play safe. A bit more pain now, to reduce pain later, which is exactly what MoH have gone with. If it goes well, I can see an extra week of L3. Play it safe.

 

Its ironic that a liberal Govt would take the conservative approach. Whereas the Opposition would take the liberal approach, haircuts and baristas anyone?? 


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