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  #2468494 23-Apr-2020 11:21
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wellygary:

 

Although the counterpoint to that is that NZ was always going to implement some form of restrictions, be it social distancing at a minimum,  

 

Its a bit like the Treasury scenario that said  we would have unemployment well north of 20% if we have a Level 4 lock down for 6 months, then Level 3 for 6 months more and the government provided no additional stimulus... sure its a possible scenario, but very unlikely...

 

 

Agree, but makes the headline more exciting and sensational. I'd rather stick to informed outcomes


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  #2468498 23-Apr-2020 11:29
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frankv:
Fred99:

 

Projected 80,000 deaths in NZ seems like a pretty reasonable worst-case scenario estimate for NZ if it ran rampant.

 

 

 

Then there's the unknown (but probably significant) toll on quality of life from sequelae.

 



Assuming herd immunity is possible, and that it kicks in at 40% infection rate, and overwhelmed hospitals mean no beds are available, so 10% mortality rate as in northern Italy, the numbers are easy: 4.8M * 0.4 * 0.1 = 192,000

So perhaps he was being optimistic.

 

Maybe - but that ~10% mortality is (diagnosed) case fatality rate - not infection fatality rate.
There's better estimates coming of IFR with higher specificity serological tests.  Most of the studies that have been "pre-print" released have been garbage, but they're closer to getting accurate data from lab analysis (not the crappy quick test kits). There should be data coming from Germany soon. 


 
 
 
 


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  #2468511 23-Apr-2020 11:40
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Fred99:

 

That's why I said "if it ran rampant".  The problem with the "ease restrictions to save the economy" model - or simply not going hard and fast - is that strategy seems to have been a colossal cock-up elsewhere - considering that we're really just at the start of this global pandemic.

 

 

Yes, new mathematical modelling shows that NZ "got it right by locking down" as discussed in this article:

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12326697&ref=clavis

 

From the above:

 

New modelling  has indicated that New Zealand got it right by locking down – and that other countries battling Covid-19 can learn from our example. It's also suggested that our rate of virus reproduction – currently below 0.5 – has put us on track for stamping out Covid-19, if not containing it. Science reporter Jamie Morton talked through the data with mathematical modeller Rachelle Binny of Manaaki Whenua-Landcare Research and Te Pūnaha Matatini.

 

Also, what risk do we face in the potential for bounce-back?

 

Over the coming weeks, if case numbers stay low and continue to decline, we can be more certain that Covid-19 is being contained. However, unless we achieve elimination, there is still a risk of an outbreak occurring in the future.

 

Based on what we've seen in other countries, if interventions are strong enough to reduce R0 below one, then they tend to stay below this threshold so long as those interventions remain in place.

 

Some countries in alert Level 3 have managed to reduce R0 below 1, particularly countries with fast contact tracing and those with low case numbers.

 

This is a good sign for New Zealand because our case numbers have declined to comparatively low levels since moving into alert Level 4.

 

However, as other countries start to relax their lockdowns and move into lower alert levels, we will be regularly updating our estimates to closely monitor their ongoing effectiveness for containing Covid-19.


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  #2468515 23-Apr-2020 11:43
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Hmm. Independent lawn mowing operator has turned up at one of my neighbours and is cutting their lawn.

 

Thought this was classed as non-essential during L4?


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  #2468532 23-Apr-2020 11:59
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kiwiharry:

 

Hmm. Independent lawn mowing operator has turned up at one of my neighbours and is cutting their lawn.

 

Thought this was classed as non-essential during L4?

 

 

Pretty sure it is non-essential - and I'd be staggered if a lawn mowing contractor didn't know what the rules are.  Turn them in.


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  #2468539 23-Apr-2020 12:05
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Fred99:

 

kiwiharry:

 

Hmm. Independent lawn mowing operator has turned up at one of my neighbours and is cutting their lawn.

 

Thought this was classed as non-essential during L4?

 

 

Pretty sure it is non-essential - and I'd be staggered if a lawn mowing contractor didn't know what the rules are.  Turn them in.

 

 

Yep, my mate is one, not allowed.


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  #2468550 23-Apr-2020 12:28
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Fred99:
kiwiharry:

 

Hmm. Independent lawn mowing operator has turned up at one of my neighbours and is cutting their lawn.

 

Thought this was classed as non-essential during L4?

 

Pretty sure it is non-essential - and I'd be staggered if a lawn mowing contractor didn't know what the rules are.  Turn them in.

 

He doesn't have any signwriting on his van. He's done and gone now.


 
 
 
 


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  #2468585 23-Apr-2020 12:52
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Press release:

 

 

Hunters will be able to hunt on private land with special restrictions when New Zealand moves to COVID-19 Alert Level 3, but not on public conservation land, Sport and Recreation Minister Grant Robertson and Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage announced today.

 

Hunting has not been allowed since New Zealand moved to Alert Level 4, but a shift to Level 3 next Tuesday morning will mean hunters can once again hunt locally - as long as they have the landholder’s permission and stick to the rules.

 

“We know that hunting is an important part of life for many New Zealanders, and in some cases a critical source of food. At Level 3 we also need to minimise the risk of losing the great progress we’ve made together in Alert Level 4 in stamping out the virus. We have to strike a balance, and that’s why these rules are designed to allow hunting in a limited way,” Grant Robertson said.

 

“Cabinet has agreed hunting on private land will be allowed under Alert Level 3, so long as hunters stay within their region and stick to their bubble. Hunting is only permitted on foot and overnight trips are not allowed. The use of quad bikes, off-road bikes, helicopters and other motorised vehicles is prohibited.”

 

Conservation Minister Eugenie Sage said hunting on public conservation land is not allowed until the time when there is a decision for New Zealand return to Alert Level 2.

 

“While many hunters may want to head to popular spots on public land to target the last stag of the roar, under Alert Level 3 hunting on public conservation land will remain off limits,” Eugenie Sage said.

 

“This helps with consistency across walking and mountain biking where people must stay local, rather than travelling to back country conservation land.

 

“The start of the duck hunting season is being postponed from Saturday 2 May to start on the second weekend after that date that is decided for when New Zealand moves to Alert Level 2.  The season will also end later,” Eugenie Sage said.

 

“I know this is disappointing but for many duck hunters the social interaction around hunting is an important part of the activity, especially at opening weekend. The risks associated with groups of people coming together is too high.

 

“The two-week delay to the start of the season after a decision is made to move into Level 2 was determined in consultation with the New Zealand Fish and Game Council and I want to thank them for their constructive engagement with these decisions.

 

“All New Zealanders will still have an opportunity to hunt ducks, at the same time, once we return to Alert Level 2.

 

“We’re still encouraging New Zealanders to spend time in nature where possible if it’s local, but this is not the time to take up hunting as a new hobby or explore the back country and go on an overnight tramp. Use your common sense – stay local, stay safe,” Eugenie Sage said.

 

FAQ

 

How far can I travel to go hunting on private land?

 

You should drive as short a distance as you can. You must stay within your region.

 

Does private land include Māori land?

 

Yes – the same rules apply.

 

Have the deer roar and tahr rut ballots/hunting blocks been affected by COVID-19?

 

The Department of Conservation (DOC) runs an annual ballot system for hunters wishing to hunt during the deer roar and tahr rut period. The ballot ensures hunters have access to an assigned hunting block.

 

Hunting blocks assigned to hunters as part of the 2020 deer roar are cancelled.

 

The tahr rut begins in late April and is a popular time for hunting in the South Island. Tahr ballots allow a select number of hunters authorised aircraft landings in the Hooker-Landsborough and Adams Wilderness areas. As the tahr rut takes place over winter, the 2020 tahr ballots are currently under review.  We will contact ballot holders with more information in due course.

 

At Alert Level 3, people must not head into the backcountry/remote areas, for their safety and the safety of others. DOC huts are also not available for use.

 

Can I still get a hunting permit?

 

In order to hunt animals on public conservation land, hunters need a DOC hunting permit. DOC has temporarily disabled the function on its website which allows hunters to apply for permits. This will be reassessed at Alert Level 2.

 





 

 

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  #2468625 23-Apr-2020 13:39
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tdgeek:

Covering his butt. One or two in 5 million.

 

 

If he was a politician. He's a scientist and being cautious. Only politicians, and in particular orange-tinted ones, would say "this will definitely be the case in two weeks' time".

neb

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  #2468629 23-Apr-2020 13:44
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frednz:

Yes, new mathematical modelling shows that NZ "got it right by locking down"

 

 

Speaking of mathematical models, this guy was tracking model vs. actual data correspondence for awhile, although he hasn't updated since 1 April.

 

 

(This may be of more interest to people over in the data analysis thread).

neb

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  #2468632 23-Apr-2020 13:47
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General FYI, the MBIE guidelines for businesses on what's permitted when prepping for level 3.

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  #2468633 23-Apr-2020 13:50
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neb:
tdgeek:

 

Covering his butt. One or two in 5 million.

 

If he was a politician. He's a scientist and being cautious. Only politicians, and in particular orange-tinted ones, would say "this will definitely be the case in two weeks' time".

 

He ranges between we will end this in 14 days apart from maybe 1 or 2, to 80000 deaths. His miracle eradication in 2 weeks is hardly cautious, and his 80000 deaths is obviously and clearly looking at a scenario that will not exist. If he was a weatherman it will be between-39 and 48 C today, calm or windy


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  #2468640 23-Apr-2020 13:54
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tdgeek:

He ranges between we will end this in 14 days apart from maybe 1 or 2, to 80000 deaths. His miracle eradication in 2 weeks is hardly cautious, and his 80000 deaths is obviously and clearly looking at a scenario that will not exist. If he was a weatherman it will be between-39 and 48 C today, calm or windy

 

 

Because he's looking at very different scenarios. Again if he was a politician he'd say "We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine. The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. … Stock Market starting to look very good to me!". Since he's been asked for his expert opinion as a scientist and not a sound bite as a politician, he's given various outcomes under various conditions, e.g. if we do nothing we get this, if we do this but not that we get this, and so on.

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  #2468648 23-Apr-2020 14:03
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Washington Post: In the US, there’s a growing possibility of a W-shaped economic recovery — and it’s scary

A resurgence of the virus or a spike in defaults and bankruptcies could lead to another painful US economic downturn

There are growing concerns that any economic recovery later this year could prove short-lived because of a possible deadly resurgence of the novel coronavirus and a late spike in bankruptcies and defaults, a wicked combination that could cause households and businesses that barely survived the spring lockdown to go under later in the year.

White House officials have touted the possibility of a V-shaped recovery as soon as this summer, pining for a swift rebound once businesses reopen on a staggered basis. But some economists say a W-shaped recovery is increasingly likely, in part because creating a vaccine is likely to take at least a year and millions of Americans and businesses are piling up debt without an easy ability to repay it.

“Pretending the world will return to normal in three months or six months is just wrong,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. “The economy went into an ice age overnight. We’re in a deep freeze. As the economy thaws, we’ll see the damage done as well. Flooding will occur.”

Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, put it this way when asked about when baseball stadiums will be filled again: “I cannot see a return this year to what we consider normal.”

A W-shaped recovery means the economy starts looking better and then there’s a second downturn later this year or next. It could be triggered by reopening the economy too quickly and seeing a second spike in deaths from covid-19, the disease the coronavirus causes. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield stressed Wednesday that winter 2021 could be “more difficult” if both the coronavirus and regular flu are “circulating at the same time.”

This could cause many businesses, which were barely hanging on, to close again. Many Americans could become even more afraid to venture out until a vaccine is found.

Something else could also cause a W pattern: a wave of bankruptcies and defaults later this year. As companies go belly up, a domino effect ensues: Workers aren’t rehired, suppliers aren’t paid, and fear rises about who will be next to fall.

“I really worry a lot about a W-shaped recovery,” said Ernie Tedeschi, a former Treasury Department economist. “People who do have jobs are going to save more than normal. That’s perfectly rational, but it delays the recovery.”
...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/22/theres-growing-possibility-w-shaped-economic-recovery-its-scary/

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  #2468654 23-Apr-2020 14:09
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Good news is moving companies are shifting people from next week.

I had to sign a declaration:

Covid-19 Level 4 Health and Safety Declaration
Dear Customer.

We are all currently dealing with unprecedented circumstances and have a responsibility to minimize the risks associated with the current COVID-19 public health emergency. The health and wellbeing of our employees and customers is our highest priorities. Under Health and Safety laws your premises are considered a workplace and on entering your premises we have a responsibility to ensure our staff have a safe work environment. We also have a social responsibility to consider you, our customers’ wellbeing. Due to this, we have adopted internal policies and procedures to reduce risk to our customers and employees.

To assist, we ask that you complete the following information and return this form by email as soon as possible for us to be able to confirm your moving dates.

We thank you for your assistance in this matter.
Removal Plan Number / Customer Name / Contact Number / Uplift Address: (If applicable) /Delivery Address:

Please answer the following questions to the best of your knowledge: YES NO

Is anyone who lives at your address currently under any form of self-isolation as a requirement of a government authority or as the result of a recommendation of a health professional?

In the last 14 days, has anyone who lives at your address been in physical contact with anyone who has been diagnosed with the COVID-19 virus?

In the last 14 days, has anyone who lives at your address been in physical contact with anyone who is in self-isolation due to the COVID-19 virus?

Has anyone who lives at your address returned from overseas in the last 30 days?

In the last 14 days, has anyone who lives at your address experienced flu-like symptoms (sore throat, fever, tiredness, cough)?

There will be access to fresh running water on site to enable removal staff to wash their hands. i.e. kitchen sink or tub?

There will be a requirement to practice safe distancing at all times and you will remain at least 2 metres from our staff at all times?

Additional Notes:

Our staff will be provided with face masks, hand sanitizer/soap and will have completed our internal declaration
regarding their individual health status on a daily basis.

We ask that we deal with one point of contact and if other family members are present, we ask that they are isolated
to one area whilst the delivery service takes place.

Due to the level 4 restrictions unpacking will be restricted to placement of furniture and cartons and setting up of beds only. Cartons will be left for you to unpack.

Customer Signature: _________________ Date: ______

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