good god it's  like someone flipped a switch, the roads are crowded again. I had to wait at intersections today, Macca's was packed and people were running red lights again

vexxxboy:

 

... and people were running red lights again

 

After the quiet life, back to some crazy stunts, I see.

People queueing for McDonald's burgers. Looking at names I am not sure some of these people in the same car are flatmates or in a relationship but I'd say not everyone is in the same "bubble".

Another Washington Post article of the delta in deaths vs previous averages. https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/27/covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/

The way I am reading this is depending on the state the number is at least double, but probably more if you take into account those locked down not travelling and car accidents have significantly reduced.

freitasm:... I'd say not everyone is in the same "bubble".

People couldn't stick to their "bubble" in Level 4, what makes you (And me) expect them to respect Level 3?

msukiwi:

 

freitasm:... I'd say not everyone is in the same "bubble".

 

People couldn't stick to their "bubble" in Level 4, what makes you (And me) expect them to respect Level 3?

In Tauranga Yesterday I noticed more people were out and about than the previous 4 weeks. So many were warming up for today.

We saw a group playing basketball at a local sports ground presumably during their lunch break only to head back to what we think was foodstuffs afterward!

We also saw probably around 4 largish gatherings of cars outside a number of properties in our street.

I honestly think people pretty much assumed when the PM said Tuesday she actually meant the prior Friday, though even in L3 most of these gatherings would be against the rules.

This is a reason why I'd rather that schools were not opened:

The condition may be relatively rare as observed so far - but given the horrific consequences of getting this wrong - being safe now rather than sorry later seems sensible.

I am now thinking we will see a spike in case in three weeks time.

freitasm:

 

I am now thinking we will see a spike in case in three weeks time.

 

Yes, but, we can cope with more cases than we have now. Of course zero is a nice goal, but probably not realistic. There has been one case of someone testing positive with C19 who have come in from overseas *40* days after arrival.

freitasm:

 

I am now thinking we will see a spike in case in three weeks time.

 

It might be sooner than that.  Incubation period median is around 5 days.
The trigger to return to L4 (or a tightening of L3) should be the appearance of only a few CT cases that aren't able to be quickly contact traced.

Edit to say what's happening with our contact-tracing phone app?  Surely it's not "weeks away". It's already rolled out in Aus - is there some valid reason that we couldn't use the same app here?

networkn:

 

freitasm:

 

I am now thinking we will see a spike in case in three weeks time.

 

 

Yes, but, we can cope with more cases than we have now. Of course zero is a nice goal, but probably not realistic. There has been one case of someone testing positive with C19 who have come in from overseas *40* days after arrival.

 

Yes.  That was the woman in Taranaki the other day IIRC - she'd returned from overseas in mid-late March. It would be interesting to know if she passed C-19 on to family members or other close contacts etc.  I assume not, the optimist in me hopes that in cases like that then they're not actively shedding virus.  It's a bit like the "vast number of asymptomatic cases" hypothesis - if it was true and they were shedding the virus, then we'd have been seeing lots of cases popping up that couldn't be contact traced back to other cases.  So far (fingers crossed) we aren't.

More on the condition being found in a some children in the UK from BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52439005

The tweet I linked above is from the Paediatric Intensive Care Society (UK) - a reliable verified source.

networkn:

 

Yes, but, we can cope with more cases than we have now. Of course zero is a nice goal, but probably not realistic. There has been one case of someone testing positive with C19 who have come in from overseas *40* days after arrival.

 

It doesn't take much for things to get out of control. There are far too many people behaving like absolute idiots.

If you wanted to be depressed by fellow kiwis who will screw it up: https://www.facebook.com/raglansurfreport