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Uber Geek

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  #2408020 28-Jan-2020 11:31
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It's worth remembering 1 million people die in the world from influenza every year..


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  #2408041 28-Jan-2020 11:58
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sbiddle:

 

It's worth remembering 1 million people die in the world from influenza every year..

 

 

It's also worth noting that if it's as infective globally as "flu" (seems possible) but mortality rate continues to be in the 3% range, then it's got the potential for a global pandemic that may kill far more than a million people.  

 

But note that "the flu" isn't one disease - but many, there's some herd immunity, there are partially effective vaccines, treatments, and one strain of Influenza A (Spanish flu) may have caused 50-100 million deaths in one pandemic.

 

Malaria kills about 1 million a year, more than a million die in road crashes.  Also worrisome statistics, but not particularly relevant to emergence and current epidemic of a novel virus.  It's even quite different from related viruses that caused SARS and MERS.

 

On a more positive note, of the cases outside China - no reported deaths, and from what I've read many or most of the patients are doing well, some have recovered (awaiting negative virus test results).


 
 
 
 


gzt

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  #2408249 28-Jan-2020 14:52
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maoriboy:

Looks like it has jumped the creek to NZ and being reported in Rotorua - possibly I might add.


https://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/232860-three-taken-to-hospital-suspected-coronavirus.html?fbclid=IwAR1yd1N_UIQR4zanvlkkrsr8nf_eYhqGweF9C2zIQvFlMt5th4NXVMk8j14


 


Members of a tour group have been assessed for novel coronavirus infection at Rotorua Hospital.


Three members of a tour group of 19 were assessed at the hospital yesterday as public health services were alerted that they may have been exposed to someone with the coronavirus.


The tour group arrived in Auckland on Saturday evening from Australia and then travelled to Rotorua.



Scary stuff!


All members of the tour group were assessed by professionals - corona was not detected.

dt

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  #2408253 28-Jan-2020 14:58
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gzt:
maoriboy:

 

Members of a tour group have been assessed for novel coronavirus infection at Rotorua Hospital.

 

Three members of a tour group of 19 were assessed at the hospital yesterday as public health services were alerted that they may have been exposed to someone with the coronavirus.

 

The tour group arrived in Auckland on Saturday evening from Australia and then travelled to Rotorua.

 

Scary stuff!

 

 

All members of the tour group were assessed by professionals - corona was not detected.

 

 

 

Link? last I read their blood samples were sent to aussie to be tested for the virus.


gzt

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  #2408254 28-Jan-2020 14:58
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Coincidentally, China has halted sales of all tours originating in China and as I understand it cancelled bookings flights etc for tours yet to leave last week as part of efforts to reduce transmission. Surprisingly 55% of all China origin outbound travel is tour groups.

Needless to say there will be economic impact for destinations like NZ.


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  #2408259 28-Jan-2020 15:06
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dt:

 

gzt:
maoriboy:

 

Members of a tour group have been assessed for novel coronavirus infection at Rotorua Hospital.

 

Three members of a tour group of 19 were assessed at the hospital yesterday as public health services were alerted that they may have been exposed to someone with the coronavirus.

 

The tour group arrived in Auckland on Saturday evening from Australia and then travelled to Rotorua.

 

Scary stuff!

 

 

All members of the tour group were assessed by professionals - corona was not detected.

 

 

 

Link? last I read their blood samples were sent to aussie to be tested for the virus.

 

 

 

 

There is no link, because they were only assessed as not having symptoms.. which does not rule out having the virus.


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  #2409421 29-Jan-2020 00:50
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A mate of mine just sent me a video with 3 pieces of footage purportedly taken in hospitals in Wuhan. The translation on the videos makes the claim that over 90,000 people are infected and some are dying in the hospital corridors because they can't get treatment. Supposedly a transmission rate of 14.

Hopefully hoax material. As I pointed out to him, it's all completely unverified. Also neither of us understand Chinese so we don't know the accuracy of the translation. The other thing that makes me think its a hoax is that transmission rates outside of China don't stack up with the claim in the video.

Undoubtedly a lot of people will be seeing this video in a very short space of time.

I can, however, believe that things are a lot worse than we're being told. It's not hard to imagine the outbreak started a lot earlier and province administrators kept schtung hoping it could be treated and would just go away without them being blamed for it or embarrassing their leader.

 
 
 
 




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  #2409430 29-Jan-2020 07:19
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Batman:

 

Every few years, a new type of coronavirus that normally doesn't infect humans mutates in China and infects humans ... have lost count how many now, but makes me think something fishy is going on there ... or maybe just the sheer population of livestock there mixed with massive population of humans? Anyway, it won't be funny if one day it causes a real pandemic.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/118920223/humantohuman-transmission-confirmed-in-china-coronavirus

 

 

so it turns out there is a secret/mystery virus research lab in wuhan ... https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12304087





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


gzt

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  #2409461 29-Jan-2020 08:38
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Dratsab: It's not hard to imagine the outbreak started a lot earlier and province administrators kept schtung hoping it could be treated and would just go away without them being blamed for it or embarrassing their leader.

Hanlon's razor applies. One report I heard had the mayor of Wuhan saying he wanted to act earlier and had to wait for approval from central government. I can find no link for that at present. In the same report the mayor seemed to be offering a resignation on the basis he could have done some things faster as well. Found a story for the second part:

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3047230/wuhan-mayor-under-pressure-resign-over-response-coronavirus

gzt

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  #2409463 29-Jan-2020 08:51
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Overall I think the response has been pretty good. I have no doubt the response has slowed the replication rate significantly. There is a lot to learn from the response, but overall pretty good.

gzt

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  #2409469 29-Jan-2020 09:02
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dt: On another note, my wifes uncle is trapped in a city that neighbors Wuhan that has also been locked down he said they are running out of food and water there, there is no bottled water left in the city and they are having to compromise with the likes of juices, coke, red bulls etc.. the army is everywhere and he said said there is a lot of "fear" in the air.

This aspect really worries me. I would have thought protocols would be established to continue food and water deliveries to supermarkets and or collection points, army delivering water, emergency food services to vulnerable elderly etc. Probably there are a small number of things on a local initiative level. There seems to be not much happening on a major scale and a lot of experiences like your uncle's with not much information getting to them.

dt

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  #2409496 29-Jan-2020 09:42
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Dratsab: A mate of mine just sent me a video with 3 pieces of footage purportedly taken in hospitals in Wuhan. The translation on the videos makes the claim that over 90,000 people are infected and some are dying in the hospital corridors because they can't get treatment. Supposedly a transmission rate of 14.

 

are you able to host these? both my wife and son are fluent in Mandarin (wish I learnt 10 years ago when I first had the opportunity to!) they would be able to verify whats being said.

 

I would be interested to see them as well 

 

 

 

 




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  #2409506 29-Jan-2020 10:02
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dt:

Dratsab: A mate of mine just sent me a video with 3 pieces of footage purportedly taken in hospitals in Wuhan. The translation on the videos makes the claim that over 90,000 people are infected and some are dying in the hospital corridors because they can't get treatment. Supposedly a transmission rate of 14.


are you able to host these? both my wife and son are fluent in Mandarin (wish I learnt 10 years ago when I first had the opportunity to!) they would be able to verify whats being said.


I would be interested to see them as well 


 


 



While you may be able to verify the translation there is no way of verifying the facts. Unless you are the local Chinese government health expert at ground zero with the actual data and the actual knowledge to interpret the data.

But I'm not surprised if it were actually 90,000 or higher. The court population is 11 million.




Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


dt

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  #2409537 29-Jan-2020 10:23
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Batman:
dt:

 

Dratsab: A mate of mine just sent me a video with 3 pieces of footage purportedly taken in hospitals in Wuhan. The translation on the videos makes the claim that over 90,000 people are infected and some are dying in the hospital corridors because they can't get treatment. Supposedly a transmission rate of 14.

 

 

 

are you able to host these? both my wife and son are fluent in Mandarin (wish I learnt 10 years ago when I first had the opportunity to!) they would be able to verify whats being said.

 

 

 

I would be interested to see them as well 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



While you may be able to verify the translation there is no way of verifying the facts. Unless you are the local Chinese government health expert at ground zero with the actual data and the actual knowledge to interpret the data.

But I'm not surprised if it were actually 90,000 or higher. The court population is 11 million.

 

 

 

Most definitely, its more out of interest than taking it as hard fact. 

 

 


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  #2409544 29-Jan-2020 10:30
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dt: are you able to host these? 

 

Link emailed with further explanation of why I doubt the video. I won't post it here. The source appears dodgy to me as well, in other words I think it's FUD but it'll no doubt get traction across social media.


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