2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2473548 29-Apr-2020 17:34

MikeB4:

That is for them to work out if they want to stay open. All the Cafes I have seen today were all complying with the rules and it would appear that KFC are doing all they can.

Supermarkets have had lines 2 meters apart since day dot. If a business type or individual store cannot do the same, I can;'t see an excuse. . If I was managing a store, I'd have signs up (even though after weeks of supermarket activity should be no need) and the signs say please keep 2 metres apart, otherwise no service. Yes, that is pandering to the lowest common denominator, but so be it.

neb

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#2473555 29-Apr-2020 17:54

MikeB4:
That is par for the course for economists they are all glass half empty folks.

It's not really "par for the course", they're just naturally cautious. Ask a lawyer about a new product release or a geek about a new IT product and you'll get a similar sort of response. In particular, like scientists in general and unlike politicians and armchair commentators, they can't give an absolute response, only "if this happens and we do this we're likely to get something in this range".

Fred99

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#2473560 29-Apr-2020 18:14

frankv:

MikeB4:

That is par for the course for economists they are all glass half empty folks.

There's no headlines and no publicity and no research funding in "Everything is going to be fine".

Not sure how any economist could come to a conclusion that everything is going to be fine. Depends on time-scale though - eventually it should be.

This is going to hurt much more than any recession I've lived through. I think you'd have to be older than 92 to be able to claim you'd seen tougher times - but remind me in a year or two.

alexx

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#2473732 30-Apr-2020 00:00

My local cafe (Eden Terrace Canteen) had no queue (serving takeaway only of course) and it was no problem to place a phone order to pick up food and coffee with contactless payment. Of course the small places don't have the marketing power of the large international franchises and I suspect most people don't know they're open.

To the best of my knowledge, there have been very few (if any) documented cases related to restaurants that were due to the serving of food and hot drinks. What has been documented is SSEs (Super Spreader Events), including the Bluff Wedding reception and some of those events did take place at restaurants.

https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/

The key factor in many of these events appeared to crowding and noise, which tends to require people to speak very closely to be heard.

It’s worth scanning all the myriad forms of common human activity that aren’t represented among these listed SSEs: watching movies in a theater, being on a train or bus, attending theater, opera, or symphony.... These are activities where people often find themselves surrounded by strangers in densely packed rooms—as with all those above-described SSEs—but, crucially, where attendees also are expected to sit still and talk in hushed tones.

New Zealand has one cluster that’s based around an infected but asymptomatic flight attendant. But the many known infections he caused took place at a wedding reception, not in an airplane. This flight attendant was running what was, in effect, an unintended experiment, with the passengers on board his aircraft playing the role of control group. And the results offer a microcosm of the nature of SSEs as a whole.

#include <standard.disclaimer>

DS248

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#2473734 30-Apr-2020 00:28

PolicyGuy: ... Also, the Aussies are not counting the deaths or infections they attribute to the Rose Princess "COVID-19 Cruise" in their figures.

Source of your information?

According to the health.gov.au website, over 18% of their notified cases (and ~one third of imported cases) were acquired on cruise ships.

https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/covid-19-cases-acquired-overseas-by-region-or-country-acquired

And as at 19 April, cases acquired on cruise ships accounted for 22 of their then 69 COVID-19 deaths. In figures I saw in the last day or two, that had risen to 24 out of 84 deaths but I cannot relocate the reference. The death toll has now risen to 89 (3:00 pm, 29 April 2020). Do not know if any of the additional ones are cruise ship passengers.

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/1D03BCB527F40C8BCA258503000302EB/$File/covid_19_australia_epidemiology_report_12_reporting_week_ending_23_59_aest_19_april_2020.pdf

I assume your were referring to the Ruby Princess cruise ship?

mattwnz

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#2473741 30-Apr-2020 00:38

Anyone come across any NZ businesses that are adding on a percentage fee to their normal service fees during level 3 and 4, due to the extra costs and time complying with it, adds to their business?

MileHighKiwi

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#2473750 30-Apr-2020 07:43

Geektastic:
I watched an invitation-only webinar this morning with a well known NZ economist. He was not very upbeat, expecting (for example) unemployment measured in the hundreds of thousands.

It isn't going to be pretty.

I was on a similar call yesterday. "Grim" was the word that kept popping up. He suggested that it will be mid 2023 before our economy gets back to pre covid levels. Also said similar unemployment figures to your one.

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frednz

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#2473759 30-Apr-2020 08:11

Yesterday, we went for a drive to our local beach and it was great to have a decent walk and soak up some sun. Although the place was crowded with people and cars, we managed to keep 2 metres away from other people, although lots of others didn't seem to be too concerned about this (when will they ever learn).

Just one thing to bear in mind if you are driving to a beach or park etc is that Council toilets are still closed under Level 3 (where we were anyway), which we think is a good thing. If you did get "caught short" you might be in trouble because takeaway food places etc are not likely to let you use their toilets either.

As always, there has been some debate as to how far you should drive your car within your region for recreational purposes, but we wouldn't go further than "local" if for no other reason that public toilets are closed!

frednz

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#2473820 30-Apr-2020 09:22

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/415322/jargon-to-blame-for-confusion-over-covid-19-elimination-pm

It’s good to see that Ashley Bloomfield has emphasised that NZ hasn’t eliminated or eradicated covid-19. Although we have already discussed this in some detail in this thread, it’s worth reading this article.

Here’s a short extract:

Director General of Health Ashley Bloomfield has had to walk back comments made by himself and the Prime Minister yesterday about the country having achieved elimination.

New Zealand has been hailed in international media including The New York Times and The Daily Telegraph as having won the battle in eliminating Covid-19.

Asked whether he accepted yesterday's remarks had given the country and the rest of the world a false impression, and whether he was concerned New Zealanders would be breathing a sigh of relief at a time they should still be vigilant, Dr Bloomfield didn't mince his words.

"I can just clarify we haven't eliminated it, and we haven't eradicated it.''

He said elimination is about having a low number of cases, and a knowledge of where they're coming from and identifying people early.

Then it's a case of stamping out the virus and continuing to maintain strict border restrictions to be sure no new cases are being imported.

Batman

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#2473827 30-Apr-2020 09:39

sbiddle:

Batman:

Question:

In media conference for the past week: quoting directly "we have reached our goal of elimination", "we have no community transmission"

Why are we in Level 3: "high risk the disease is not contained" "new clusters might emerge"

Anybody can explain?

Level 3 is not the exact same criteria going backwards, as it is forwards.

And of course you do know what elimination means right? it is not eradication of the virus (zero cases). I actually think the PM using that term in the early days without clarifying it probably meant a lot of people expected zero new cases after lockdown.

So I take it now its been confirmed we not have elim or erad, from what I gather from the RNZ link. Hopefully the public can unhear what was said. I think the reason people are out and about is because they think we've eradicated.