2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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13684 posts

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#2477220 5-May-2020 19:01

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

The thing is that NZ and Oz are in a different situation. They have managed to suppress it, but not eliminate it, which is a lot easier than what NZ has done. But they are still getting community transmission occurring, so it appears to still be spreading silently in the community.

Exactly. The Trans Tasman bubble is just a concept at the moment. Its hard to imagine it working in the near future. Maybe by Xmas their results are almost zero everyday, half of that will be due to Summer. You really need a 10 minute test at the airport that is reliable

They were damned close to zero before we were. There's very unlikely to ever be a 10 minute serology test available at airports that'll provide any useful information. There may be "quick" PCR tests eventually, but it'll be a hall of a bottleneck with what's possibly available now - and they'll still have the 20-30% false negative issue (that we see in NZ as "probable" cases).

There will need to be mutual trust from both sides.

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frankv

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#2477225 5-May-2020 19:19

DS248:
Australia and New Zealand are committed to introducing a trans-Tasman COVID-safe travel zone as soon as it is safe to do so, Prime Minister Rt Hon Jacinda Ardern and Prime Minister the Hon Scott Morrison MP have announced.

Morrison seems to be playing it down somewhat, at least for his AU audience.

It's a media feeding frenzy. We can't even travel across town, and they're bleating on about travelling to Australia, hyped up by Winston on a self-promotion jaunt. Just like inventing a vaccine, of course it's a good idea, providing the obstacles can be overcome. So, when asked, the PMs say cautiously "It's a good idea, providing the problems can be overcome ". So the media, whose attention span runs out after 4 words, hype themselves up again. "The PM(s) said it was a good idea", they shriek. And go and interview some tourism operators, who, predictably, say it's a good idea. I only wish someone would mention Nazis so the whole mess could be written off.

It ain't gonna happen at the end of L3. Or at the end of L2. I'd say you would be an optimist if you planned on going to the Melbourne Cup. Maybe the Aussie Open might be a chance.

How about a bit of practical thinking and aim for a co-bubble with the Cook Islands? They're already covid-free, so it just depends on us. Yes, they're not a great source of tourists, but neither will Australia be for many months. And it would be good for both NZ and CI.

tdgeek

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#2477227 5-May-2020 19:23

Fred99:

They were damned close to zero before we were. There's very unlikely to ever be a 10 minute serology test available at airports that'll provide any useful information. There may be "quick" PCR tests eventually, but it'll be a hall of a bottleneck with what's possibly available now - and they'll still have the 20-30% false negative issue (that we see in NZ as "probable" cases).

There will need to be mutual trust from both sides.

Yeah. We aren't at zero IMHO, we are in the Bell Curve tail, low reported cases.

As you say, trust. It has to be that we agree a formula and we run with that, being aware that there may be cross infection, and we accept that. The public needs to accept that travel and a sniffle = isolation and a test. If you get a sniffle and a positive test while away, unsure. Has to be free medical support by each country, that works as travel numbers are pretty equal.

ezbee

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#2477228 5-May-2020 19:24

The trans-Tasman bubble conundrum.

Well we could try very bright light screening of all transit passengers.

Sing that line from Crowded House.

" The light from a billion suns will surely protect everyone"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/billion-suns-brightest-light-ever-earth-scientists-x-ray-nebraska-a7808331.html

Or we could try to retrain the Beagles as Covid Dogs....
https://www.livescience.com/dogs-smell-covid-19.html

Or cut off key areas like Queenstown, Aussies can fly in and out as desired , but NZers can go in but only leave the region if they go into 14 Day isolation.
Time will tell, if us and Aussie can bring in required numbers.

Taiwan numbers though look that good that this could be done as soon as Taiwan are confident we are safe.
Maybe they will bring some PPE with them , they make it after-all.

mattwnz

20043 posts

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#2477252 5-May-2020 20:28

frankv:

How about a bit of practical thinking and aim for a co-bubble with the Cook Islands? They're already covid-free, so it just depends on us. Yes, they're not a great source of tourists, but neither will Australia be for many months. And it would be good for both NZ and CI.

I don't think the Cook islands will be keen to enter into a bubble with NZ. There require a 14 day quarantine at both ends currently for returning people. That is 28 days in total!

They don't want to run the risk of getting it IMO, not matter how small. IMO if we think Australia is safe, why aren't we promoting a bubble with other Island countries with no cases?

I also get he impression that Australia are more apprehensive then NZ, is about entering a bubble with us. IMO this whole NZ / Oz bubble thing seems very political . DO we want o be gong to a country that has't eliminated it and is still under restrictions due to there still being active cases? Elimination has the potential to allow a country to remove such restrictions.

IMO if we are looking at Oz, why not Taiwan or even China, both who seem to be keen on elimination.

I think any countries need to be signed off by the WHO with an 'elimination certiicate', and that neither country is a risk to the other of spreading it.

mattwnz

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#2477259 5-May-2020 20:34

tdgeek:

Yeah. We aren't at zero IMHO, we are in the Bell Curve tail, low reported cases.

As you say, trust. It has to be that we agree a formula and we run with that, being aware that there may be cross infection, and we accept that. The public needs to accept that travel and a sniffle = isolation and a test. If you get a sniffle and a positive test while away, unsure. Has to be free medical support by each country, that works as travel numbers are pretty equal.

A big problem is that people who develop symptoms are not going to get tested straight away. They may take 5 days before bothering to go and get tested. If the test takes a few days to get a result, than that is another week. If they developed the illness 14 days into the incubation period, that is potentially 3 weeks since being infected, before that new case is logged as a new case. Then contact tracing people they have been in contact with may take another week. So at that stage the virus already has a months head start. This is why level 3 only being 14 days may not be long enough to show the effects of level 3 flouters, or undetected community transmission IMO.

This was discussed on Q&A last night. Worth watching, as they also said NZs contact tracing still wasn't up to what it should be yet.

frankv

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#2477339 5-May-2020 21:59

mattwnz:
frankv:

How about a bit of practical thinking and aim for a co-bubble with the Cook Islands? They're already covid-free, so it just depends on us. Yes, they're not a great source of tourists, but neither will Australia be for many months. And it would be good for both NZ and CI.

I don't think the Cook islands will be keen to enter into a bubble with NZ. There require a 14 day quarantine at both ends currently for returning people. That is 28 days in total!

Yeah, I know. But assuming NZ is thorough about elimination, then we might be considered safe enough for the Cooks to consider. And suddenly the Cooks' tourist economy is back in business.

I think the big attraction of Australia is the trade and tourists and a fair amount of trans-Tasman business. Australia is bigger than Taiwan or Vietnam or other nearly covid-free countries. But we will all have to agree on what actually covid-free means, and how to prove it to each other.

Paul1977

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#2477406 5-May-2020 23:02

Any extended bubble between NZ and Australia would also have to be contingent on the pilots and flight attendants of those flights being limited to just flights between our two countries. You don't want a healthy Aussie getting infected on his way to NZ by a flight attendant who was just in Italy.

mattwnz

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#2477408 5-May-2020 23:07

frankv:
Yeah, I know. But assuming NZ is thorough about elimination, then we might be considered safe enough for the Cooks to consider. And suddenly the Cooks' tourist economy is back in business.

I think the big attraction of Australia is the trade and tourists and a fair amount of trans-Tasman business. Australia is bigger than Taiwan or Vietnam or other nearly covid-free countries. But we will all have to agree on what actually covid-free means, and how to prove it to each other.

This is why it seems to have got so political, with money being the motivator. People seem to coming at it from all directions, many with vested interests. It is the health experts IMO that are the ones who should be saying whether it is safe or not, based on factual evidence. So far it is too early to tell if NZ has even eliminated it, or we do still have hidden CT occurring. But based on all the comments I have seen on NZ news websites, most of the comments seem to be concerned with Australia not having eliminated it, and still getting new cases where it appears that they may be CT occurring, which is something that is very difficult to solve and trace.
I think if it was the other way around, and Australia had done a hard level 4 lockdown to try and reset the virus cases, like NZ did, and potentially eliminated the virus , and NZ had signs that we had CT and had a more relaxed lockdown which wasn't as effective with no elimination strategy or goal, I don't think Australians would be happy about opening their border to NZ.

I don't think island countries want a repeat of what happened during other pandemics, where diseases have been let in and spread, and the health systems in the islands is often not as good as NZ's . So I think the Cooks would want to make sure we had truly eliminated it first, and the only way to make sure is 'time based' with no new cases after a period of time.

KrazyKid

1238 posts

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#2477411 5-May-2020 23:09

mattwnz:

This was discussed on Q&A last night. Worth watching, as they also said NZs contact tracing still wasn't up to what it should be yet.

Thanks for the heads up about the interview, it was indeed interesting.
I hate to imagine how poor contract tracing was before this started if we are not up there after 7 weeks concentrated focus on improving.

It seems to me that between the lack of contact tracing and ICU beds we had no option but to go to level 4.

Here is a link to the interview with Dr Ayesha Verrall (TVNZ on demand)

tdgeek

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#2477452 6-May-2020 06:24

mattwnz:

This is why it seems to have got so political, with money being the motivator. People seem to coming at it from all directions, many with vested interests. It is the health experts IMO that are the ones who should be saying whether it is safe or not, based on factual evidence. So far it is too early to tell if NZ has even eliminated it, or we do still have hidden CT occurring. But based on all the comments I have seen on NZ news websites, most of the comments seem to be concerned with Australia not having eliminated it, and still getting new cases where it appears that they may be CT occurring, which is something that is very difficult to solve and trace.
I think if it was the other way around, and Australia had done a hard level 4 lockdown to try and reset the virus cases, like NZ did, and potentially eliminated the virus , and NZ had signs that we had CT and had a more relaxed lockdown which wasn't as effective with no elimination strategy or goal, I don't think Australians would be happy about opening their border to NZ.

I don't think island countries want a repeat of what happened during other pandemics, where diseases have been let in and spread, and the health systems in the islands is often not as good as NZ's . So I think the Cooks would want to make sure we had truly eliminated it first, and the only way to make sure is 'time based' with no new cases after a period of time.

Agree. This is a big talking point, but the reality is, its a long way off. Its worth talking about, but it can't be seen as a project until its patently clear its gone. Where we are at now, its looking good. A few more months its looking great. Let Summer do its thing and start getting serious after New Year. When all of us are getting zero cases. But political it is. Simon Bridges wanted us locked down earlier, then 5 minutes later he wanted L2. 10 minutes later he will want easy travel from Australia???

frednz

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#2477457 6-May-2020 07:21

tdgeek:

Agree. This is a big talking point, but the reality is, its a long way off. Its worth talking about, but it can't be seen as a project until its patently clear its gone. Where we are at now, its looking good. A few more months its looking great. Let Summer do its thing and start getting serious after New Year. When all of us are getting zero cases. But political it is. Simon Bridges wanted us locked down earlier, then 5 minutes later he wanted L2. 10 minutes later he will want easy travel from Australia???

I thought that taking potshots at political parties was supposed to be confined to the Politics forum? Never mind, there are two major crises going at the moment, control over the virus and control over the economy. The National Party has actually said this:

“Kiwis have done a great job self-isolating and social distancing to save lives. But with 1000 people a day joining the dole queue, we now need to turn our attention to saving jobs."

I can't see much wrong with this approach, after all, as Simon puts it:

“New Zealand has flattened the curve. Our first priority now must be to lift the restrictions that are flattening the economy."

tdgeek

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#2477459 6-May-2020 07:36

frednz:

tdgeek:

Agree. This is a big talking point, but the reality is, its a long way off. Its worth talking about, but it can't be seen as a project until its patently clear its gone. Where we are at now, its looking good. A few more months its looking great. Let Summer do its thing and start getting serious after New Year. When all of us are getting zero cases. But political it is. Simon Bridges wanted us locked down earlier, then 5 minutes later he wanted L2. 10 minutes later he will want easy travel from Australia???

I thought that taking potshots at political parties was supposed to be confined to the Politics forum? Never mind, there are two major crises going at the moment, control over the virus and control over the economy. The National Party has actually said this:

“Kiwis have done a great job self-isolating and social distancing to save lives. But with 1000 people a day joining the dole queue, we now need to turn our attention to saving jobs."

I can't see much wrong with this approach, after all, as Simon puts it:

“New Zealand has flattened the curve. Our first priority now must be to lift the restrictions that are flattening the economy."

Its inconsistent. Which begs the question, is that a balanced approach or is it forget the virus lets fix the economy? Thats clearly how it appears. What he is saying, is lets focus on the one problem we have. Its amazing that the health issue is not an issue now. Whatever risk he sees in a second wave, is not there or worth it. If a second wave occurs, that will be blown off with blame as per usual.

No one knows when its safe and worth it to fully open up the economy. Its easy to take that risk when you are not in a position to own it nor to act on that risk. L3 was for a minimum of 14 days, its 14 days as thats the period needed to assess the virus, but he doesn't want to assess the virus, thats the problem. Its wrong to use health to dominate this issue, at the expense of the economy and sanity, its also wrong to ignore the health side. The whole purpose here is to take control of the virus so we dont do what every other country has done, is have ongoing infections. Do it once do it right. Its half done now, he wants to take that risk. We dont have hsitory here of Covid-19 being here repeatedly to better assess the risk, this is new territory. Is it worth a gamble or is it better to continue the path we have taken and likely be in L2 next week? Or should we ignore the scientific reason why L3 was set to 14 day minimum? I go with science over getting his name in the news to hold onto some relevancy.

TechSol

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#2477465 6-May-2020 08:06

tdgeek:

Its inconsistent. Which begs the question, is that a balanced approach or is it forget the virus lets fix the economy? Thats clearly how it appears. What he is saying, is lets focus on the one problem we have. Its amazing that the health issue is not an issue now. Whatever risk he sees in a second wave, is not there or worth it. If a second wave occurs, that will be blown off with blame as per usual.

No one knows when its safe and worth it to fully open up the economy. Its easy to take that risk when you are not in a position to own it nor to act on that risk. L3 was for a minimum of 14 days, its 14 days as thats the period needed to assess the virus, but he doesn't want to assess the virus, thats the problem. Its wrong to use health to dominate this issue, at the expense of the economy and sanity, its also wrong to ignore the health side. The whole purpose here is to take control of the virus so we dont do what every other country has done, is have ongoing infections. Do it once do it right. Its half done now, he wants to take that risk. We dont have hsitory here of Covid-19 being here repeatedly to better assess the risk, this is new territory. Is it worth a gamble or is it better to continue the path we have taken and likely be in L2 next week? Or should we ignore the scientific reason why L3 was set to 14 day minimum? I go with science over getting his name in the news to hold onto some relevancy.

Going with above logic, how does the extra (almost) week at Level 4 factor..... if we were to come out of level three soon, we would still be on the third 14 day cycle.

tdgeek

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#2477467 6-May-2020 08:14

TechSol:

tdgeek:

Its inconsistent. Which begs the question, is that a balanced approach or is it forget the virus lets fix the economy? Thats clearly how it appears. What he is saying, is lets focus on the one problem we have. Its amazing that the health issue is not an issue now. Whatever risk he sees in a second wave, is not there or worth it. If a second wave occurs, that will be blown off with blame as per usual.

No one knows when its safe and worth it to fully open up the economy. Its easy to take that risk when you are not in a position to own it nor to act on that risk. L3 was for a minimum of 14 days, its 14 days as thats the period needed to assess the virus, but he doesn't want to assess the virus, thats the problem. Its wrong to use health to dominate this issue, at the expense of the economy and sanity, its also wrong to ignore the health side. The whole purpose here is to take control of the virus so we dont do what every other country has done, is have ongoing infections. Do it once do it right. Its half done now, he wants to take that risk. We dont have hsitory here of Covid-19 being here repeatedly to better assess the risk, this is new territory. Is it worth a gamble or is it better to continue the path we have taken and likely be in L2 next week? Or should we ignore the scientific reason why L3 was set to 14 day minimum? I go with science over getting his name in the news to hold onto some relevancy.

Going with above logic, how does the extra (almost) week at Level 4 factor..... if we were to come out of level three soon, we would still be on the third 14 day cycle.

OK. You could also say we could come out of L4 after 14 days, then go to L2. But you cant say that or what you suggest. You start the 14 day period when the cases are at a level that it will work. You get a result that works for you, then you reset and start the counter. It comes down to, do we want to take control of the virus, or do we just want out of the restrictions. You need to satisy A before you venture into B, IMHO. The SOLE reason is to never go backwards, that is ALL that matters. So we want lots of short term pain, or do we want lots of shorter term pain then revisiting medium term pain for the rest of the year? Some want to avoid any pain and just cross fingers. Not worth it.

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