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BDFL - Memuneh
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  #2477489 6-May-2020 08:47
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I have replied the political comments in the COVID-19 politics thread here.





 

 

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  #2477554 6-May-2020 09:25
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Backtracking a little past the political stuff, I could absolutely see the Cook Islands wanting a bubble with NZ asap.  Their economy is so dependent on tourism, which is currently zero, that they are going to be in a world of hurt very soon with no hope on the horizon.  And, they don't have the financial reserves to offer the welfare safety nets that we're seeing here.  If NZ can demonstrate a decent period of no CT and no new cases, then a NZ-Cooks bubble must be a worthwhile aim.


 
 
 
 


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  #2477560 6-May-2020 09:33
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tdgeek:

 

The SOLE reason is to never go backwards, that is ALL that matters. So we want lots of short term pain, or do we want lots of shorter term pain then revisiting medium term pain for the rest of the year? Some want to avoid any pain and just cross fingers. Not worth it.

 

 

Consider what's said in this article:

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300003549/coronavirus-social-cohesion-among-kiwis-threatened-postcovid-say-experts

 

Extract from the above:

 

In a statement accompanying the paper's release, Koi Tū director Sir Peter Gluckman said the high level of trust in government apparent during the lockdown is likely to waver as the implications of a long recession become clear.

 

“Already, we’re seeing a rise in tension between conflicting economic and health interests.''

 

Some sectors are in a hurry for a return to pre-Covid life while others see an opportunity for a reset, he said.

 

“Many lives have been fundamentally changed, and for those people, the new ‘normal’ is full of huge uncertainty.

 

“That is where social cohesion will start to break down and the mental wellbeing of many will be further affected.”

 

This incredibly difficult balancing act between control over the virus and a sinking economy could be debated at great length depending on how you view virus risk factors and a bundle of social, economic, and other issues. Overall, I'm very pleased with the Government's efforts so far, but I do worry about the economic plight of thousands of individuals and businesses.

 

Unfortunately, I only have time to make a couple of posts a day, so you'll be glad to know I'll get back to work now. I sometimes think that's enough posts for anyone to make in a day to avoid cluttering this forum with repetitive argument!


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  #2477599 6-May-2020 09:48
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frednz:

 

 

 

Consider what's said in this article:

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300003549/coronavirus-social-cohesion-among-kiwis-threatened-postcovid-say-experts

 

Extract from the above:

 

In a statement accompanying the paper's release, Koi Tū director Sir Peter Gluckman said the high level of trust in government apparent during the lockdown is likely to waver as the implications of a long recession become clear.

 

“Already, we’re seeing a rise in tension between conflicting economic and health interests.''

 

Some sectors are in a hurry for a return to pre-Covid life while others see an opportunity for a reset, he said.

 

“Many lives have been fundamentally changed, and for those people, the new ‘normal’ is full of huge uncertainty.

 

“That is where social cohesion will start to break down and the mental wellbeing of many will be further affected.”

 

This incredibly difficult balancing act between control over the virus and a sinking economy could be debated at great length depending on how you view virus risk factors and a bundle of social, economic, and other issues. Overall, I'm very pleased with the Government's efforts so far, but I do worry about the economic plight of thousands of individuals and businesses.

 

Unfortunately, I only have time to make a couple of posts a day, so you'll be glad to know I'll get back to work now. I sometimes think that's enough posts for anyone to make in a day to avoid cluttering this forum with repetitive argument!

 

 

Im aware that many are tired of the lockdown, and there are economic interests. I guess its posisble that the MoH will tell us that due to many being tired of the lockdown, the virus is now no issue, here is Level 0.  Solve the health issue then we are released from it. We certainly can cease interest in the virus, and get on with the economy, thats very much an option that is favoured by some in the political space. Very scientific /s


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  #2477622 6-May-2020 10:08
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tdgeek:

 

Im aware that many are tired of the lockdown, and there are economic interests. I guess its posisble that the MoH will tell us that due to many being tired of the lockdown, the virus is now no issue, here is Level 0.  Solve the health issue then we are released from it. We certainly can cease interest in the virus, and get on with the economy, thats very much an option that is favoured by some in the political space. Very scientific /s

 

 

You seem to always be trying to take this down to a binary decision, when it will never be one.  No-one is saying we should forget about the virus, and the health issue will never be "solved".  What people are saying is that we may need to revisit where is the best place on the compromise scale between virus eradication and economic activity.  This isn't a yes/no question!  The govt has (correctly IMHO) been quite far to the eradication side of the scale up to now, and are now trying to work out how we can gradually move towards the economy side.  Fortunately for us, they understand this needs to be a graduated process.


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  #2477638 6-May-2020 10:22
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shk292:

 

tdgeek:

 

Im aware that many are tired of the lockdown, and there are economic interests. I guess its posisble that the MoH will tell us that due to many being tired of the lockdown, the virus is now no issue, here is Level 0.  Solve the health issue then we are released from it. We certainly can cease interest in the virus, and get on with the economy, thats very much an option that is favoured by some in the political space. Very scientific /s

 

 

You seem to always be trying to take this down to a binary decision, when it will never be one.  No-one is saying we should forget about the virus, and the health issue will never be "solved".  What people are saying is that we may need to revisit where is the best place on the compromise scale between virus eradication and economic activity.  This isn't a yes/no question!  The govt has (correctly IMHO) been quite far to the eradication side of the scale up to now, and are now trying to work out how we can gradually move towards the economy side.  Fortunately for us, they understand this needs to be a graduated process.

 

 

No. My post was in repsonse to Freds, that appeasrs to be his and Nationals response. Note the /s at the end of my post

 

National wanted out of L4, its too long, they want L2 after a shorter L4. That tells me that they, who are an Opposition party not epidemiologists, they appear to feel the virus is not an issue now. Not prepared to let the 14 day virus life play itself out. That is totally anti the reason why its a 14 day minimim. They already decree its fine now, thats my point. I agree with your points fully I was responding to fred and National who dont share that view. Its apparently ONLY about the economy now. I shudder to think what would have occured under a different Government. Arguing with MoH all day long I suspect


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  #2477653 6-May-2020 10:41
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shk292:

 

Backtracking a little past the political stuff, I could absolutely see the Cook Islands wanting a bubble with NZ asap.  Their economy is so dependent on tourism, which is currently zero, that they are going to be in a world of hurt very soon with no hope on the horizon.  And, they don't have the financial reserves to offer the welfare safety nets that we're seeing here.  If NZ can demonstrate a decent period of no CT and no new cases, then a NZ-Cooks bubble must be a worthwhile aim.

 

 

NZ winter is the peak tourism season for the Cooks,

 

If we can get a Trans-tasman scheme up in the next few months, its certainly possible that by August/September they could be in it..

 

Once they are included they should be very busy as large chunks of Auckland won't be able to jet off to Bali for a week in the Sun this year,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  #2477654 6-May-2020 10:43
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tdgeek:

 

No. My post was in repsonse to Freds, that appeasrs to be his and Nationals response. Note the /s at the end of my post

 

National wanted out of L4, its too long, they want L2 after a shorter L4. That tells me that they, who are an Opposition party not epidemiologists, they appear to feel the virus is not an issue now. Not prepared to let the 14 day virus life play itself out. That is totally anti the reason why its a 14 day minimim. They already decree its fine now, thats my point. I agree with your points fully I was responding to fred and National who dont share that view. Its apparently ONLY about the economy now. I shudder to think what would have occured under a different Government. Arguing with MoH all day long I suspect

 

 

My comment was in general, not only about a specific post - and IMHO is reinforced by your comments about National above.  It's wrong to state that National "feel the virus is not an issue now"; their preferred position is different to the government's (surprise!) but is still on the graduated scale between virus and economy.  You're incorrectly over-simplifying their position to make a point, and in my view this does little to further the debate.


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  #2477657 6-May-2020 10:49
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wellygary:

 

NZ winter is the peak tourism season for the Cooks,

 

If we can get a Trans-tasman scheme up in the next few months, its certainly possible that by August/September they could be in it..

 

Once they are included they should be very busy as large chunks of Auckland won't be able to jet off to Bali for a week in the Sun this year,

 

 

Exactly my point - but the Cooks should be easier than Aus.  They have a small population, no COVID and no other air routes into the country.  So as soon as they trust NZ's COVID eradication, we should be able to treat them as another region of NZ and open up travel.  Then, as you say, all those NZers whose travel plans to warmer climes have been cancelled could revitalise the Cooks' economy instead


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  #2477661 6-May-2020 10:54
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shk292:

 

tdgeek:

 

No. My post was in repsonse to Freds, that appeasrs to be his and Nationals response. Note the /s at the end of my post

 

National wanted out of L4, its too long, they want L2 after a shorter L4. That tells me that they, who are an Opposition party not epidemiologists, they appear to feel the virus is not an issue now. Not prepared to let the 14 day virus life play itself out. That is totally anti the reason why its a 14 day minimim. They already decree its fine now, thats my point. I agree with your points fully I was responding to fred and National who dont share that view. Its apparently ONLY about the economy now. I shudder to think what would have occured under a different Government. Arguing with MoH all day long I suspect

 

 

My comment was in general, not only about a specific post - and IMHO is reinforced by your comments about National above.  It's wrong to state that National "feel the virus is not an issue now"; their preferred position is different to the government's (surprise!) but is still on the graduated scale between virus and economy.  You're incorrectly over-simplifying their position to make a point, and in my view this does little to further the debate.

 

 

Ok. The stance from graduating the fight against the virus that we are successfully doing and that is still in progress is a far cry from: L4 being too long lets get to L2. That tells me the virus is not an issue, or an issue worth bothering about. There is a simple reason why L3 is 14 days, thats ignored. So I stand by my point that they are treating the virus as a non issue, and there is only one problem worth working on. Some may disagree with the graduated response to date, thats fine, but some are not wanting a graduated response now, its only the economy


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  #2477667 6-May-2020 11:09
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tdgeek:

 

Ok. The stance from graduating the fight against the virus that we are successfully doing and that is still in progress is a far cry from: L4 being too long lets get to L2. That tells me the virus is not an issue, or an issue worth bothering about. There is a simple reason why L3 is 14 days, thats ignored. So I stand by my point that they are treating the virus as a non issue, and there is only one problem worth working on. Some may disagree with the graduated response to date, thats fine, but some are not wanting a graduated response now, its only the economy

 

 

Well you've contradicted yourself there; if National thinks it is "only the economy" they would be pushing for Level 0 with the international borders re-opened to allow tourism.  They're not asking for this.  What they are doing is representing the very real and serious concerns of the business sector of our economy, many of who consider that the current restrictions are too strict.  FWIW, I don't agree with them and I think we're on the right course if we step down to L2 next week - but I'm not going to argue against them by mis-stating their position.

 

Probably flogging a dead horse with you on this so we may just have to agree to differ.


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  #2477671 6-May-2020 11:26
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Thats fine, we can agree to disagree on their weightings of the virus and of the economy


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  #2477679 6-May-2020 11:41
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I still think it must be better for the economy long term to try & basically get rid of the virus as we’re doing.

 

Surely if we were to have long term background spread the costs would really add up. Companies I would assume would be operating inefficiently with some sort of measures still in place long term.

 

Restaurants would have to maintain social distance between patrons long term.

 

People would be off sick a lot for long periods.

 

Hospital’s would have to maintain a Covid ward & the increased risks this brings, along with all the testing stations around the country.

 

How would rest homes operate? The risk to them is incredible as we’ve seen.

 

Every day people would be stressed about catching it, instead of this hopefully short term pain.

 

We would keep getting flare up’s, keep having to close places & disinfect them.

 

Would we have to wear masks everyday? How much would this cost a family.

 

And many more issues I’m sure.

 

 

 

I just don’t think this sort of environment has really been thought through.


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  #2477683 6-May-2020 11:48
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Exactly right. Thats the way its being managed right now. Solve problem A soon and you help problem B soon. As distinct from allowing both to be long term daily challenges


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  #2477685 6-May-2020 11:50
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I also think quite a few of these businesses that have shut were on the edge anyway, or already making large losses, it’s just made them finally admit it.


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