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  #2477708 6-May-2020 12:13
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On2or3wheels:

 

I also think quite a few of these businesses that have shut were on the edge anyway, or already making large losses, it’s just made them finally admit it.

 

 

There is a huge difference between being profitable and being unable to meet your debts as they fall due because you suddenly went to a month of zero cashflow with three day's notice.


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  #2477735 6-May-2020 12:32
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On2or3wheels:

 

I still think it must be better for the economy long term to try & basically get rid of the virus as we’re doing.

 

Surely if we were to have long term background spread the costs would really add up. Companies I would assume would be operating inefficiently with some sort of measures still in place long term.

 

Restaurants would have to maintain social distance between patrons long term.

 

People would be off sick a lot for long periods.

 

Hospital’s would have to maintain a Covid ward & the increased risks this brings, along with all the testing stations around the country.

 

How would rest homes operate? The risk to them is incredible as we’ve seen.

 

Every day people would be stressed about catching it, instead of this hopefully short term pain.

 

We would keep getting flare up’s, keep having to close places & disinfect them.

 

Would we have to wear masks everyday? How much would this cost a family.

 

And many more issues I’m sure.

 

 

 

I just don’t think this sort of environment has really been thought through.

 

 

I can't speak to the pain of small business owners. I simply don't know enough. But I can imagine there must be people who have put heart and soul into small enterprises that are just able to survive in a normal economy, but do not have any reserve for something like this virus shutdown. For those people this must be horrible and they have my genuine sympathy. I don't know if there is a good answer for them. Sometimes life is just very unfair.

 

Apart from that, I agree with every other point being made here. As a high risk vulnerable person, I will do everything I can to avoid every form of contact with any other human being until I have the assurance that there is a vaccine or cure. I don't care what the level is. I don't want a Covid 19 death and will do everything I can to keep the risk at zero.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


 
 
 
 


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  #2477769 6-May-2020 12:56
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GV27:

 

There is a huge difference between being profitable and being unable to meet your debts as they fall due because you suddenly went to a month of zero cashflow with three day's notice.

 

 

If you have a viable business though that has been making a profit then shouldn't the government/bank loan help? Or you would have some reserves?

 

I'm not saying things aren't tough for them, but you need to remember any bailout from the govt is just taxpayer money that we're all going to have to pay back so we want it used on good profitable businesses.

 

This may sound harsh, but I'm not keening on bailing out every cafe for instance. 


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  #2477850 6-May-2020 14:20
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Group hugs are the latest weapon of the anti-lockdown protesters.

 

 

Can't really add much to what the headline has already said...

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  #2477851 6-May-2020 14:25
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neb: Group hugs are the latest weapon of the anti-lockdown protesters. Can't really add much to what the headline has already said...

 

Idiocy knows no bounds





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  #2477882 6-May-2020 14:58
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The John W McDaniel endgame awaits.

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  #2477894 6-May-2020 15:04
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neb: Group hugs are the latest weapon of the anti-lockdown protesters. Can't really add much to what the headline has already said...

 

Their bodies, not my choice. Selfish pricks like these are spreading an illness that will kill others. If they want to hug so much, lock them all up in one cell!

 

 





I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney
 


 
 
 
 


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  #2478006 6-May-2020 16:16
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Still tracking down per trend set under L4 (plot below). 

 

Good news but impact of L3 will only kick in from around now.  Hopefully no uptick in cases as even with the current rate of decrease in cases we have a way to go before effective elimination.  Should not mean cannot bring on more of the economy providing strong physical distancing is maintained. 

 

As several people have mentioned, we should be looking more closely at South Korea, HK & Taiwan who are a lot further down the track than us.  Taiwan now more than 3 weeks since last local case and Vietnam effectively there also (last local case 15 Apr).

 

Note that the forward projection for NZ (light dotted line) is based on local cases in the last 3 weeks of L4 (shown by the heavy black line).  See post from yesterday (#2476528) for further details regarding the plot

 

 

 


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  #2478016 6-May-2020 16:34
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Shouldn't we also be looking at Australia's trend, considering NZ is  planning on sharing our bubble with them?

 

 

 

However I am concerned after an interview with Australia Deputy Medical Officer, that their position is suppression. It is not Elimination like NZs policy, so both countries goals don't seem to align.

 

Australia consider elimination being challenging to sustain, which is why they've taken a position of, of suppression. Source: https://www.health.gov.au/news/deputy-chief-medical-officer-interview-on-sky-news-sunday-agenda-on-3-may-2020 

 

 

 

 


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  #2478088 6-May-2020 17:36
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Press release:

 

 

Government is investing $25 million to speed up the trial and deployment of innovations to help New Zealand’s response to COVID-19, says Research, Science and Innovation Minister Dr Megan Woods.

 

The COVID-19 Innovation Acceleration Fund is aimed at the fast development of new products and services that could help to detect, diagnose, treat or prevent COVID-19, by supporting Research & Development, prototyping and pre-production activities.

 

“Scientists, researchers and innovators in New Zealand and across the globe, are working hard to resolve the myriad of challenges COVID-19 presents. Working across government, the research sector and with businesses to respond hard and fast against the serious global health threat is vital, and this new Fund supports New Zealand’s problem solvers to get cutting-edge products and services to market quickly,” said Megan Woods.

 

The fund which was established in March has already allocated $6.75 million to projects so far, including:

 

· Supporting the validation of technology that can detect COVID-19 antibodies in blood (Digital Sensing Ltd)
· Supporting the development of a simple, versatile ventilator, capable of ventilating COVID-19 patients at the different stages of disease progression (ES Plastics)
· Supporting early stage research investigating the development of a potential COVID-19 vaccine.

 

“We are working across government to develop a vaccine strategy with the research and science community, and potential vaccine manufacturers. While that strategy is being developed, I’m proud to say that we’ve been able to support researchers with part-funding through this Fund to allow them to start getting on with this important work.

 

“I’m excited to see how quickly the research, science and innovation sector has responded to this challenge and I’m confident that together we’ll be able to come up with some exciting solutions,” said Megan Woods.

 

More information can be found here on MBIE’s website.

 





 

 

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  #2478096 6-May-2020 17:41
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mattwnz:  Shouldn't we also be looking at Australia's trend, considering NZ is  planning on sharing our bubble with them? ...

 

 

 

Agree, though the Asian countries plotted are also important (a) to provide perspective, and (b) because they are succeeding better than the large majority of countries. 

 

Working (intermittently!) on AU, though currently focusing more on state level.  State level interesting as some are further down the track to elimination than NZ.  SA, no new local cases in almost 3 weeks.  Just 10 cases total (local + imported) in the last 25 days vs 177 for NZ.  Per capita, the figure for NZ is 6x higher than the SA number.  Rate of new cases in WA over the last 2+ weeks is also a lot lower per capita than in NZ (by a factor of ~4).   QLD also has had few new cases than NZ over the last 2 weeks, even if strip out all our probable cases.

 

Big problem is I cannot find detailed data for AU cases (at national or state level), particularly for local vs imported which is critical.  The limited data I have so far has been extracted off plots.  Painfully slow and still trying to locate separate plots/data for local cases.  Also some discrepancies between different sources (possibly a date of confirmation vs press release date issue?).  

 

Anyone know a readily accessible source for new local cases per day for Australia, preferably by State?


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  #2478108 6-May-2020 18:24
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From CNN "Trump pivots hard away from fight against unvanquished pandemic"

 

 

President Donald Trump wants to move on. "Wartime" leadership in a national crisis no longer fits his political timetable.

 

No matter that coronavirus cases are rising in many states and that governors are ignoring his guidelines about when it's safe to open. Trump is shrugging off warnings by scientists that the easing restrictions taking place across the country could cause tens of thousands of deaths.

 

The White House gave its clearest sign yet Tuesday, just less than six months from Election Day and as the US death toll topped 70,000, that it is moving from pandemic management to a message of revival and an aggressive pitch for a second term. And Trump is thwarting oversight efforts of how he and his administration responded to the pandemic that could reveal failures that worsened the outbreak.

 

Vice President Mike Pence revealed conversations about scaling back the administration's coronavirus task force perhaps around Memorial Day at the end of the month. Officials said that advisers like Drs. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx would remain on board. But closing the task force would make experts whose science-based arguments have sometimes contradicted Trump's overly optimistic projections far less visible.

 

Disbanding the task force would also raise questions about the administration's priorities in effectively declaring victory over a pandemic that appears likely to rage for many more months.

 

"We're now looking at a little bit of a different form, and that form is safety and opening, and we'll have a different group probably set up for that," Trump told CNN's Jim Acosta.
Trump all but admitted that he was reconciled to the deaths that epidemiologists say would result from a premature effort to open the economy.

 

Asked in an ABC News interview if the price of opening will be more deaths, Trump replied: "It's possible there will be some, because you won't be locked into an apartment or a house or whatever it is." The President called on Americans to maintain social distancing and handwashing, but claimed that stay-at-home orders were also injurious to national well-being.

 

 

If this America's position, I guess we'll have our borders closed to non-bubble partners for a while.





 

 

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  #2478115 6-May-2020 18:35
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  #2478117 6-May-2020 18:38
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Tinkerisk:

 

👍 Royal moral obligation to be recognized.

 

 

Meanwhile, a doctor in the USA was refused a green card, even though she's working on COVID-19.





 

 

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  #2478123 6-May-2020 18:57
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freitasm:

Meanwhile, a doctor in the USA was refused a green card, even though she's working on COVID-19.

 

 

That's just their bungling immigration bureaucracy mucking things up again. Not trying to defend them, but it's just a case of never attribute to malice what is adequately explained by incompetence.

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