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  #2479455 8-May-2020 18:02
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Don't refer to Sweden ... (despite the fact I like this country and it's inhabitants very much)

 

 

 

+++ After two mishaps in central coronavirus studies, there is great uncertainty in Sweden. It is now completely unclear how many people had already contracted and could be immune.

 

The matter is as embarrassing as it is complicated, because Swedish experts apparently made two mutually independent but fundamental errors: a study in which corona antibodies were searched twice in 100 blood donations and found in eleven percent of the samples, was withdrawn from the Karolinska Institute.

 

Reason: "It cannot be ruled out that the samples also included those from known corona people whose plasma was intended to help seriously ill patients. This means that the assumption that a correction factor including 20 to 30 percent of all Swedes has actually been infected and could therefore be immune is no longer tenable."

 

And state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell also had to back down. According to a study, the health authority suspected that there were 999 undetected cases for every corona case in Sweden. With around 6,400 sufferers in Stockholm alone, however, this would have meant more than six million infected people, while the city is home to just under a million people.

 

Tegnell tried to explain the obvious mistake:
"You used an incorrect variable and thus increased another variable to meet the specified guideline value of two and a half percent of infection. This increased the value between confirmed and undetected cases enormously. We should have noticed that, but it does not change anything other facts like when the infection rate peaked. " +++

 

 

 

ref: transscript from a German TV (ARD) podcast





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  #2479466 8-May-2020 18:52
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Tinkerisk:

 

Don't refer to Sweden ... (despite the fact I like this country and it's inhabitants very much)

 

 

 

+++ After two mishaps in central coronavirus studies, there is great uncertainty in Sweden. It is now completely unclear how many people had already contracted and could be immune.

 

The matter is as embarrassing as it is complicated, because Swedish experts apparently made two mutually independent but fundamental errors: a study in which corona antibodies were searched twice in 100 blood donations and found in eleven percent of the samples, was withdrawn from the Karolinska Institute.

 

Reason: "It cannot be ruled out that the samples also included those from known corona people whose plasma was intended to help seriously ill patients. This means that the assumption that a correction factor including 20 to 30 percent of all Swedes has actually been infected and could therefore be immune is no longer tenable."

 

And state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell also had to back down. According to a study, the health authority suspected that there were 999 undetected cases for every corona case in Sweden. With around 6,400 sufferers in Stockholm alone, however, this would have meant more than six million infected people, while the city is home to just under a million people.

 

Tegnell tried to explain the obvious mistake:
"You used an incorrect variable and thus increased another variable to meet the specified guideline value of two and a half percent of infection. This increased the value between confirmed and undetected cases enormously. We should have noticed that, but it does not change anything other facts like when the infection rate peaked. " +++

 

 

 

ref: transscript from a German TV (ARD) podcast

 

 

if there are 6,000,000 infections in one city alone, and the entire country's death rate is 3040,

 

Then the death rate is 0.05%

 

Is that good or bad?





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


 
 
 
 


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  #2479471 8-May-2020 19:07
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Batman:

if there are 6,000,000 infections in one city alone, and the entire country's death rate is 3040, Then the death rate is 0.05%

 

Is that good or bad?

 

 

Given that the first figure is imaginary, the total isn't good or bad but womble.

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  #2479472 8-May-2020 19:09
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Multiplying the known infections by some fudge factor to estimate the "true" infection rate seems pretty pointless, especially if the fudge factor is clearly out by at least one order of magnitude. Any calculation based on the estimate (e.g. death rate) is equally dodgy.

And, pragmatically, the death rate as a percentage of the calculated infection rate is pretty meaningless. Every death from covid-19 will have been identified some time before death as covid-19, because you'll have some kind of symptoms before you die of covid-19. What people want to know is, if I get covid-19, what are my chances? If you're completely asymptomatic, you won't even know you've got it, so the question never arises. From this point of view, "getting covid-19 " means showing symptoms.

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  #2479474 8-May-2020 19:12
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kingdragonfly: Its success has been hailed alongside nations like New Zealand and Vietnam.

 

 

Interesting that Vietnam isn't getting more press coverage, they're still claiming zero deaths after two months or so and very few active cases left. Even the CDC, who has people on the ground there, admitted that they were expecting to find worse but so far haven't been able to turn up any evidence of it.

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  #2479475 8-May-2020 19:15
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The government dumped a whole lot of documents a couple of hours ago relating to the information they used to make their decisions upto mid April. While I do appreciate they released the info on a Friday night is poor.

 

One of the things that had been reported do far is that mid March the Health department thought the could contact trace 10 cases a day. That same day 11 new cases were announced.


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  #2479488 8-May-2020 20:20
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KrazyKid:

 

The government dumped a whole lot of documents a couple of hours ago relating to the information they used to make their decisions upto mid April. While I do appreciate they released the info on a Friday night is poor.

 

One of the things that had been reported do far is that mid March the Health department thought the could contact trace 10 cases a day. That same day 11 new cases were announced.

 

 

 

 

Who cares if its a Friday? People can still read them - journos can assess them and get their stories to print in coming days.

 

At least they are in fact releasing them, as they said they would, in order to be transparent and not force OIA requests to be generated.

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  #2479494 8-May-2020 20:42
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Don't get me wrong, it's a small gripe. Like you I'm pleased they released the info. It speaks highly of then. And overall I am very impressed with the government's handling of this crisis.
The lack of ICU beds, number of clusters and poor contract tracing makes the lockdown call correct.

I just sometimes wish politicians would be less... well political sometimes. LOL.

Timing the release for Friday night and making everyone unable for comment means any news will get lost in the anticipation of the Monday go no go level 2 announcement next week.

I'm turning into a cynic.

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  #2479495 8-May-2020 20:43
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driller2000:

KrazyKid:


The government dumped a whole lot of documents a couple of hours ago relating to the information they used to make their decisions upto mid April. While I do appreciate they released the info on a Friday night is poor.


One of the things that had been reported do far is that mid March the Health department thought the could contact trace 10 cases a day. That same day 11 new cases were announced.



 


Who cares if its a Friday? People can still read them - journos can assess them and get their stories to print in coming days.


At least they are in fact releasing them, as they said they would, in order to be transparent and not force OIA requests to be generated.


 



This should probably be taken to the politics thread but there has been long standing abuse of the OIA for many years. New Zealand government departments view it as somewhat optional to comply with it. The Key government abused the act and after promising to be an open and transparent government the Arderm government have been just as bad.

During the COVID crisis it seems to have gotten much worse, especially at the ministry of health.

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  #2479514 8-May-2020 22:51
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Batman:

 

if there are 6,000,000 infections in one city alone, and the entire country's death rate is 3040,

 

Then the death rate is 0.05%

 

Is that good or bad?

 

 

Neither nor, it just tells you that they have no idea what's going on - just estimates, no counts.





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  #2479528 8-May-2020 23:18
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A prima facie concerning refusal of an exemption application from the lockdown

 

Now I readily acknowledge that we don't have all the facts but this person's case sounds utterly desperate and he's prepared to wear PPE whilst visiting his wife one last time. In the normal course of events (perhaps even as little as a week ago) I would have been content to trust the MoH's decision. But in light of the exposure of the MoH's utterly lawless and banana republic behaviour previously in deciding (or, more accurately speaking, basically not bothering to engage with the substance of any applications and randomly making up the law as they go along) such applications and their ongoing attempts at pretending that using an unlawful decision framework and getting things "right" under it means something, I don't think any intelligent person should give these bureaucrats the benefit of the doubt.

 

It's time for these highly important, potentially controversial, and difficult decisions to be placed in the hands of a panel convened by a High Court judge alongside relevant subject matter experts. It's the only way for this process to have any objective integrity given the way a bunch of jokers have previously crapped all over it.

 

 


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  #2479580 9-May-2020 02:20
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DS248:

 

Certainly feel more comfortable with Australia's proposed Step 1 & 2 gathering sizes than our L2 proposals. 

 

That is something that really needs revisiting for our L2.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-05-08-20-intl/h_d3df199ba150c3e1baa6fa12b7dd63b4

 

Step 1:

 

     

  • Gatherings of up to 10 people will be permitted
  • ...
  • Up to 30 people will be allowed to attend funerals outdoors
  • Up to 10 people will be allowed to attend weddings outdoors

Step 2:

 

     

  • Gatherings of up to 20 people will be permitted, including for venues like movie theaters and galleries

 

 

 

Yeah, NZs level 2 seems way to much too soon.

 

 

 

Epidemiologist says New Zealand isn't ready for COVID-19 alert level 2

 

 

 

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/05/epidemiologist-says-new-zealand-isn-t-ready-for-covid-19-alert-level-2.html

 

 

 

Especially when compared to Australia whose numbers aren't too much different to NZ, and NZs contact tracing is apparently not being quite there yet, as per Sundays TVNZ Q&A with the expert that was checking the MOHs system for them. Below is a concern as it is more recent.

 

 

 

Coronavirus: New Zealand is one day too slow on 'critical' tracing marker

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300007340/coronavirus-new-zealand-is-one-day-too-slow-on-critical-tracing-marker

 

 

 

If our contact tracing is overwhelmed with new cases in unexpected areas, that could effectively force us back into level 4 IMO . Also no digital tracking is a concern, when Australia have already released an App. 

 

 




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  #2479602 9-May-2020 08:15
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KrazyKid:

 

The government dumped a whole lot of documents a couple of hours ago relating to the information they used to make their decisions upto mid April. While I do appreciate they released the info on a Friday night is poor.

 

One of the things that had been reported do far is that mid March the Health department thought the could contact trace 10 cases a day. That same day 11 new cases were announced.

 

 

came across a newshub article related to this post. 

 

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/leak-jacinda-ardern-gags-ministers-on-discussing-covid-19-response.html





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2479621 9-May-2020 09:16
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As per https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers Australia has 10.1% of their cases from an unknown source, that seems rather high. They have better contact tracing than us, but that's not much help when they cannot find the source. Due to the relaxed lockdowns they had? For NZ, it "appears" that as most of our new cases are from known sources that we don't have infectious people wandering throughout society? Or at least, very few. Thats where our tighter L4 has been of benefit. Or L2 may be seen as loose than AUS but maybe we dont have the numbers in the wild they have?


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  #2479627 9-May-2020 09:27
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tdgeek: Australia has 10.1% of their cases from an unknown source, that seems rather high. They have better contact tracing than us, but that's not much help when they cannot find the source.

Um, if they can't find the source then it suggests to me that their contact tracing is not as good as ours, if they can trace a smaller fraction of the contacts.

But it may be that they are more stringent about labeling an infection as successfully contact-traced. Or it may be due to their less stringent lockdown.

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