2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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1452 posts

Uber Geek

#2429676 1-Mar-2020 16:04

Scott3: Could be way worse than 5,000.

5m population
x60% infection rate
x2.3% mortality

69,000 dead....

And that is on top of our normal death rate from seasonal flu etc.

And it dosn't include the people that die from other stuff which we could have saved them from if our hospitals and icu's weren't overloaded.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/02/coronavirus-lance-o-sullivan-admits-he-got-it-wrong-in-playing-down-fears-says-thousands-could-die-here.html

The above article discusses the likely death rate from COVID-19:

Last time former New Zealander of the Year Lance O'Sullivan was on The AM Show, he called the media reaction to the growing coronavirus threat "a lot of hysteria, a beat-up".

Now he's fearing COVID-19 could kill thousands of New Zealanders if it comes here, with our health system underprepared for the influx of potentially tens of thousands of patients.

If the virus gets loose in New Zealand, based on what we've seen so far, it's likely at least 5000 people would die - and that's a conservative estimate based on what happened on the Diamond Princess, a cruise ship on which the virus ran rampant.

Even if New Zealand's high-quality health system manages to keep the death toll down, the Diamond Princess experience suggests around 40,000 people could fall critically ill in an uncontained outbreak.

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debo

296 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2429681 1-Mar-2020 16:50

Scott3: Could be way worse than 5,000.

5m population
x60% infection rate
x2.3% mortality

69,000 dead....

And that is on top of our normal death rate from seasonal flu etc.

And it dosn't include the people that die from other stuff which we could have saved them from if our hospitals and icu's weren't overloaded.

60% infection rate????????? Click bate statistics like this just cause alarm.

If we just pretend all the cases in china are just in Wuhan then 80k cases / 11 M people is just 0.7%. Extrapolating this to 60% is completely unscientific.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2429686 1-Mar-2020 17:09

debo:

60% infection rate????????? Click bate statistics like this just cause alarm.

If we just pretend all the cases in china are just in Wuhan then 80k cases / 11 M people is just 0.7%. Extrapolating this to 60% is completely unscientific.

Actually it's not. China took extreme measures to contain the spread. They worked (unless we're being misinformed). Without that, based on an R0 of between 2-3 in a population with zero immunity, new infections won't stop until about 60% have been infected.

And that's why extreme measures have been taken - and we'll need to take extreme measures here to keep it as manageable as possible.

mattwnz

19389 posts

Uber Geek

#2429699 1-Mar-2020 17:42

debo:

Scott3: Could be way worse than 5,000.

5m population
x60% infection rate
x2.3% mortality

69,000 dead....

And that is on top of our normal death rate from seasonal flu etc.

And it dosn't include the people that die from other stuff which we could have saved them from if our hospitals and icu's weren't overloaded.

60% infection rate????????? Click bate statistics like this just cause alarm.

If we just pretend all the cases in china are just in Wuhan then 80k cases / 11 M people is just 0.7%. Extrapolating this to 60% is completely unscientific.

An article I read from an expert says that the infection rate over the next few years will be close to 100% of the population, if it becomes widespread and becomes an annual virus, like other coronaviruses like the common cold. eg who hasn't had a cold? Once it become as annual event, it is next to impossible to get rid of. Now is the time to actually get rid of it, and prevent it becoming an annual thing. You may not get a cold for a few years, but you will highly likely eventually get a cold at some stage. China have a lot more control over their population than many western countries, so can go to extremes to stop the spread. Can you imagine NZ building huge hospital in a few weeks, let alone in a few years. The problem IMO is the number of cases needing hospitalization. Apparently it is 1 in 6, which is very high, and you have to be quite bad to need hospitalization. The accurateness of the testing IMO is also a concern based on this first case. IMO we really need to keep it out of the country in the first place. Samoa seem to be treating this very carefully.

debo

296 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2429713 1-Mar-2020 18:28

MATTWNZ: "An article I read from an expert says that the infection rate over the next few years will be close to 100% of the population, if it becomes widespread and becomes an annual virus....."

Does not matter. There will be vaccines well before that so the virus will become a non-event in future years.

FREDD99: "Actually it's not. China took extreme measures to contain the spread... "

China had to take extreme measures because the population is living in high rise apartments. NZ does not need to follow these measures because our population is spread out. Where are the scientific papers showing the extrapolation from 0.7% to 60%? We need to base predictions on reality not gut assumptions.

vexxxboy

4089 posts

Uber Geek

#2429716 1-Mar-2020 18:35

With all the hysteria around media reporting about the virus do the media have to publish views from this idiot, they are dangerous.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/119861726/coronavirus-brian-tamaki-blames-satanic-airborne-demons-drinking-of-bats-blood

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2429718 1-Mar-2020 18:42

debo:

Where are the scientific papers showing the extrapolation from 0.7% to 60%? We need to base predictions on reality not gut assumptions.

Epidemiology 101. The 1918 flu pandemic probably reached ~50% infection rate globally - and that happened before people routinely flew around the planet on airliners and population density was far lower than it is now.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2429722 1-Mar-2020 18:47

debo:

Does not matter. There will be vaccines well before that so the virus will become a non-event in future years.

There's no vaccine for any corona viruses, reasonable evidence that immunity for other human coronaviruses doesn't last very long, and most likely enough human inhabitants of this planet who wouldn't be vaccinated by choice - or because they live in parts of the planet where nobody cares.

FWIW, estimates for when a vaccine might be available - 12-18 months. Mass vaccination of a few billion people with a vaccine that hasn't been properly tested won't happen. If it's as effective as flu vaccine (unfortunately often not very effective at all), then it'll mitigate epidemic potential - not eliminate the disease.

mattwnz

19389 posts

Uber Geek

#2429724 1-Mar-2020 18:48

debo:

MATTWNZ: "An article I read from an expert says that the infection rate over the next few years will be close to 100% of the population, if it becomes widespread and becomes an annual virus....."

Does not matter. There will be vaccines well before that so the virus will become a non-event in future years.

Yes that is a good point. It is possible there will be a vaccine, but that could be at least a year away. But not all the world will be able to get this such as some third world countries, unless someone funds it. People will need to add that to the list of vaccines they need to get. Plus we don't know if it isn't mutating. We still don't have a vaccine for the common cold.

mattwnz

19389 posts

Uber Geek

#2429726 1-Mar-2020 18:51

vexxxboy:

With all the hysteria around media reporting about the virus do the media have to publish views from this idiot, they are dangerous.

The media are getting quite a bit of stick from the PM about the reporting.

debo

296 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2429727 1-Mar-2020 18:54

Fred99:

Epidemiology 101. The 1918 flu pandemic probably reached ~50% infection rate globally - and that happened before people routinely flew around the planet on airliners and population density was far lower than it is now.

So why is the rate of new cases slowing in China? If what you say is true then there will have to be 18k new cases in Wuhan every day to reach a 50% infection rate with in a year. Your click-bate figures does not reflect reality.

tdgeek

28622 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2429728 1-Mar-2020 18:55

There is a huge variance with this topic, both here and in the media. On the one hand, its just worse than the flu, on the other its going to take over the world. One site says the infection rate is 43000 per month. Based on China, from 1 Jan onwards.It actually started in November. And it was the hotbed when many many people had it (I have the flu) or (I feel great but I'm a carrier), well before it got recognised. With the birthplace, with many weeks before it was even recognised (infections everywhere and no one knew), and high population and density, a lot of people became infected. Elsewhere its the opposite on all of those metrics. China, the hotbed, has a level of containment. Elsewhere, where the virus is now well known, the numbers are small. Iran is bigger, but its Iran. Italy is bigger, but they are acting aggressive. One person, I think Macedonia caught it at a party in Lombardo, Italy, unlucky. I just dont see it spreading like wildfire. Unlike early China, its a well known target now.

mattwnz

19389 posts

Uber Geek

#2429729 1-Mar-2020 18:56

Fred99:

debo:

Where are the scientific papers showing the extrapolation from 0.7% to 60%? We need to base predictions on reality not gut assumptions.

Epidemiology 101. The 1918 flu pandemic probably reached ~50% infection rate globally - and that happened before people routinely flew around the planet on airliners and population density was far lower than it is now.

This seems to be one of the costs of globalisation, and people being able to travel freely and cheaply around the world. Maybe we have had it too good for too long. For NZ to base it's economy largely on houses, and tourism was always quite a risk, because if we close the borders to tourists it will have knock on effects for everyone. People also won't want to wait 2 weeks in quarantine before their trip into NZ. The problem is that if it isn't this virus, there will likely be another one in the future that will be just as bad or worse, as SARS and MERS, Swine and bird flu etc were wakeup calls.

nathan

5695 posts

Uber Geek
Inactive user

#2429730 1-Mar-2020 18:57

mattwnz:
vexxxboy:

With all the hysteria around media reporting about the virus do the media have to publish views from this idiot, they are dangerous.

The media are getting quite a bit of stick from the PM about the reporting.

It’s better to let this bigoted God-bothering-fool publicly state his hate speech, so everyone can see it and judge it for itself, instead of sweeping it under the carpet

At least PS-91 protection policy, based on Psalm 91:3, sounds pretty cool

Better than The Gays causing earthquakes, that “Bishop” Brian has definitive evidence of.

mattwnz

19389 posts

Uber Geek

#2429734 1-Mar-2020 19:01

tdgeek:

There is a huge variance with this topic, both here and in the media. On the one hand, its just worse than the flu, on the other its going to take over the world. One site says the infection rate is 43000 per month. Based on China, from 1 Jan onwards.It actually started in November. And it was the hotbed when many many people had it (I have the flu) or (I feel great but I'm a carrier), well before it got recognised. With the birthplace, with many weeks before it was even recognised (infections everywhere and no one knew), and high population and density, a lot of people became infected. Elsewhere its the opposite on all of those metrics. China, the hotbed, has a level of containment. Elsewhere, where the virus is now well known, the numbers are small. Iran is bigger, but its Iran. Italy is bigger, but they are acting aggressive. One person, I think Macedonia caught it at a party in Lombardo, Italy, unlucky. I just dont see it spreading like wildfire. Unlike early China, its a well known target now.

There does seem to be a lot of misinformation, and maybe it is partly due to the state of the media and the way it is being reported with different conflicting opinion pieces. It seems that people think the death rate from the normal flu is around the same as this, at around 1% eg 1 in 100. But it appears it is 10 times more deadly, as the deathrate from the normal flu is just around 0.1% eg 1 in 1000 . Maybe peoples math skills aren't very good.

This page dispels some of the myths https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/29/worse-than-flu-busting-coronavirus-myths

My concern is also the self isolation guidelines say that you can be within 6 feet of of someone for up to 10 minutes. But this page says it is possible to be infected within a shorter interaction than this.

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