2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2503520 12-Jun-2020 11:28

ockel:

Great article from Newsroom.

I normally like Bernard Hickey, but I got to this part in the headline:

creating the single biggest choke point for an economic recovery based on tourism and cheap guest workers

and almost stopped reading.

I think if anybody is expecting an economic recovery based on tourism and cheap guest workers, then they're dreaming.

It's possible that there might be a partial economic recovery in tourism if we can get a trans-Tasman bubble thing going, but that's only going to be a step toward overall economic recovery - and anyway that eliminates the need for quarantine. "250 a day" means 3,500 in quarantine at any point in time.
3.8 million tourists visited NZ in 2018, that's 10,400 per day, so you'd need to be able to quarantine almost 150,000 people at any given point in time to have a full "economic recovery" in tourism. It's not going to happen.
As for "cheap guest workers" - the idea sucks - we just shouldn't be doing it.

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itxtme

2102 posts

Uber Geek

#2503571 12-Jun-2020 11:48

ockel:

How difficult can it be to organise more quarantine places - hotels have record low occupancy (and are being mothballed), hotels have the ability to provide food and cleaning, the Government should be able to organise security and management for more than 3,500 people at a time.

What does this mean for people booking flights home as citizens? Are they actively being told they cannont return to NZ? This seems nuts! For example you can book flights on a few International routes -> NZ. Are people being turned away at the airport because the 250 has been reached?

Dr Bloomfield has been a standout as a communicator for the Ministry of Health. He has a way of mitigating problems that come along, but before Covid the MoH was a disjointed ineffective beast. Covid-19 has not lead to a change in that.

Edit: When I say mitigating problems I more mean that he is very effective at down playing the risk etc.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2503579 12-Jun-2020 12:14

itxtme:

What does this mean for people booking flights home as citizens?

According to the article there are 10,000 citizens wanting to return, they are apparently prioritised ahead of anybody else, so that's theoretically up to about 6 weeks delay.

But it's not quite as simple as jumping on a direct flight home, there are transit agreements in place with other countries, transit passengers restricted by quarantine requirements in those countries including in some cases outright travel bans from some countries of origin.

More info here:

https://www.safetravel.govt.nz/news/covid-19-advice-new-zealanders-overseas

rugrat

3088 posts

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#2503584 12-Jun-2020 12:23

We are not going to be COVID free for long.

Shoddy quarantine practices taking place, people finishing their 14 days coming into contact with people starting.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/travellers-mingling-passengers-other-flights-members-public-during-covid-19-isolation

neb

11294 posts

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#2503587 12-Jun-2020 12:28

rugrat:
We are not going to be COVID free for long.

Shoddy quarantine practices taking place, people finishing their 14 days coming into contact with people starting.

Don't worry, the MoH's world-class[*] contact tracing will deal with any new outbreaks.

[*] Meaning Somalia, Syria, Zimbabwe, Iraq, DRC, and Yemen.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2503588 12-Jun-2020 12:29

rugrat:

We are not going to be COVID free for long.

Shoddy quarantine practices taking place, people finishing their 14 days coming into contact with people starting.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/travellers-mingling-passengers-other-flights-members-public-during-covid-19-isolation

Meanwhile, we've got people arguing that we need to vastly increase the numbers we allow in?

Sheer madness.

ockel

2031 posts

Uber Geek

#2503596 12-Jun-2020 12:46

Fred99:

rugrat:

We are not going to be COVID free for long.

Shoddy quarantine practices taking place, people finishing their 14 days coming into contact with people starting.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/travellers-mingling-passengers-other-flights-members-public-during-covid-19-isolation

Meanwhile, we've got people arguing that we need to vastly increase the numbers we allow in?

Sheer madness.

But these operations have been running for 2 months. Staggering excursions for smoking, exercise etc based on what day you arrived? Rotating arrivals between hotels such that new arrivals arent at the same hotel as those who are approaching the end of their quarantine period? If essential workers can create rosters for siloing at work to prevent cross contamination in the same facility how can someone not create a hotel roster to prevent cross contamination????

And there should have been foresight and planning as to how to manage these facilities as Levels change. If roads can be restricted for vehicles such that more cyclists and pedestrians can move around the city surely it cant be too hard to create quarantine zones around the hotels that keep the public out. If the public knew that it was a biohazard zone dont you think they'd avoid it???

Its about effective management. Something that has been lacking since the start - and makes our geographical isolation the single redeeming feature in terms of how we contained.

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

ezbee

2350 posts

Uber Geek

#2503598 12-Jun-2020 12:57

The Cooks , Nuie, and Tokelau have special relationship as New Zealand citizens.
So would seem to have by right first bite at any bubble given our responsibility to citizens and their not having CV19.

In addition to risk we could introduce CV19 to their Islands as we don't have 100% assurance yet of elimination.
We still have repatriation underway where accidents could happen.
Example of at least one person who escaped isolation, another who resisted testing on entry etc.

I expect reluctance to jump into this will also be practical limitations on being able to manage separation of bubble passengers and crew from all the other flights.

They would need to be separated from all other travelers and aircrew in all areas,
From airbridge through duty free, baggage handling, immigration hall,customs and MAF.

I wonder if the Airports are going to have difficulties and would push back on anything that increases their costs.
Practical aspect if we do a bubble it has to be kept separate right through the airport.

Infrastructure is limited at the other end , so if anything does go wrong it would require a major evacuation effort though.

Not sure how exposed these Islands are to the private/charter jet crowd, and cruising yachts, or commercial that could be an area of vulnerability.

One might separate traffic by Airport , Pacific Island Flights go from Hamilton for instance with no other international flights.

Could be that figuring out how to manage these bubble flights is a headache too

concordnz

463 posts

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#2503605 12-Jun-2020 13:12

ockel:
How difficult can it be to organise more quarantine places - hotels have record low occupancy (and are being mothballed), hotels have the ability to provide food and cleaning, the Government should be able to organise security and management for more than 3,500 people at a time.

And capacity hasnt changed in a month. What are Departments like Immigation and Health doing? Continued mismanagement.

It's not hard really - The Government has been buying Motels to house homeless people for the last few years.
& there is plenty on the verge of getting shut down now.
The government should buy up 12-15 in each main airport Centre. To use for managed quarantine.
(1 motel for each day of the 14 day quarntine)
That way, you can house each new 'days quarntine set' in their own Motel & eliminate 'mixing'.

You could Contract - the existing owners/staff of each Motel purchased to manage it - thereby saving jobs and offering continuity.

It would be a way better use of money than a lot of things they have thrown money at.

& after covid is delt with - they could use them to house homeless & let them wreck the places, before they sell them back into Motels as tourism improves in 5-6 years....

neb

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#2503608 12-Jun-2020 13:20

concordnz: The government should buy up 12-15 in each main airport Centre. To use for managed quarantine.

Uhh, do you know how much it'd cost to buy up a dozen hotels in a place like Auckland?

Better to use a reverse auction, "we will guarantee 80% occupancy in your hotels for the next six months if you give us this deal on rooms".

ockel

2031 posts

Uber Geek

#2503610 12-Jun-2020 13:22

concordnz:
ockel:

How difficult can it be to organise more quarantine places - hotels have record low occupancy (and are being mothballed), hotels have the ability to provide food and cleaning, the Government should be able to organise security and management for more than 3,500 people at a time.

And capacity hasnt changed in a month. What are Departments like Immigation and Health doing? Continued mismanagement.

It's not hard really - The Government has been buying Motels to house homeless people for the last few years.
& there is plenty on the verge of getting shut down now.
The government should buy up 12-15 in each main airport Centre. To use for managed quarantine.
(1 motel for each day of the 14 day quarntine)
That way, you can house each new 'days quarntine set' in their own Motel & eliminate 'mixing'.

You could Contract - the existing owners/staff of each Motel purchased to manage it - thereby saving jobs and offering continuity.

It would be a way better use of money than a lot of things they have thrown money at.

& after covid is delt with - they could use them to house homeless & let them wreck the places, before they sell them back into Motels as tourism improves in 5-6 years....

And yet you can book to stay at the Rydges Wellington Airport while quarantined passengers stay at the QT in the CBD....

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

frankv

5678 posts

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#2503626 12-Jun-2020 13:43

ockel:

I cant fly to a C-19 free country like the Cook Islands without having to spend 14 days in mandatory quarantine when I return.

A country that is willing to take the risk of having people from a country that had an outbreak like NZ but we treat them like lepers.

My understanding is that you CAN'T just fly to the Cook Islands. Last I knew, they require 14 days quarantine in NZ, followed by 14 days quarantine in the Cooks. Has that changed?

I suggest the problem with returning from the Cooks is that you may mix with incoming passengers from the USA or some other infected country, or where they've been (remember fomites), as you come in.

I guess that separate "infected" and "clean" paths through immigration, Customs, luggage claims, and airport terminals is not worth the effort, until there are significant numbers arriving from "clean" countries (i.e. until we have a bubble with Australia).

ockel

2031 posts

Uber Geek

#2503630 12-Jun-2020 13:54

frankv:

ockel:

I cant fly to a C-19 free country like the Cook Islands without having to spend 14 days in mandatory quarantine when I return.

A country that is willing to take the risk of having people from a country that had an outbreak like NZ but we treat them like lepers.

My understanding is that you CAN'T just fly to the Cook Islands. Last I knew, they require 14 days quarantine in NZ, followed by 14 days quarantine in the Cooks. Has that changed?

I suggest the problem with returning from the Cooks is that you may mix with incoming passengers from the USA or some other infected country, or where they've been (remember fomites), as you come in.

I guess that separate "infected" and "clean" paths through immigration, Customs, luggage claims, and airport terminals is not worth the effort, until there are significant numbers arriving from "clean" countries (i.e. until we have a bubble with Australia).

The Cook Islands are welcoming Cook Islanders and Permit Holders from June 19. No visitors in the latest advisory. Requirements are that you have been not been outside of NZ/Cook Islands in the 30 days prior to travel. So you can just fly to the Cook Islands (if youre a Cook Islander or Permitholder).

"“Do I have to quarantine in the Cook Islands?”
Current advice from Te Marae Ora (TMO) is that supervised quarantine is not required. This
situation is fluid and may change based on COVID-19 overseas trends."

https://cookislands.travel/news/novel-coronavirus-information-travellers-arriving-cook-islands

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

Handle9

11141 posts

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#2503633 12-Jun-2020 13:56

ockel:
Great article from Newsroom. It will take years, at the current rate, to bring our own people home let alone deal with tourists.

Clearly if you're in the most affluent group of people (like film workers for billionaires) then you'll get one of those 250/day places for quarantine.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/06/12/1225937/the-limit-on-nz-incs-migrant-led-growth?utm_source=Friends+of+the+Newsroom&utm_campaign=d95be47f50-Daily+Briefing+12.6.20&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_71de5c4b35-d95be47f50-83321269

How difficult can it be to organise more quarantine places - hotels have record low occupancy (and are being mothballed), hotels have the ability to provide food and cleaning, the Government should be able to organise security and management for more than 3,500 people at a time.

And capacity hasnt changed in a month. What are Departments like Immigation and Health doing? Continued mismanagement.

I'm sure if there were more places and they weren't being fully utilised you'd be complaining about waste.

Is there demand for more than 250 places a day? Tourism isn't relevant and business travel isn't going to happen anytime soon.

Certainly the limitations on New Zealanders returning aren't on the quarantine side, it is very difficult to get flights. That will change a bit from July-September but it's hardly going to be exponential growth.

wellygary

8202 posts

Uber Geek

#2503636 12-Jun-2020 13:59

frankv:

I guess that separate "infected" and "clean" paths through immigration, Customs, luggage claims, and airport terminals is not worth the effort, until there are significant numbers arriving from "clean" countries (i.e. until we have a bubble with Australia).

Looks like all those separator screens that Supermarkets had been rolling out under Level 2 might have a roll after all....

On the other hand , I wouldn't put it past Auckland airport to run out and simply rent some mesh fencing from Hirepool...

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