2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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4239 posts

Uber Geek

#2430292 2-Mar-2020 19:09

Batman:

Fred99:

476 new cases in Korea announced today, more than double the new case report for the whole of China.

While that looks bad for Korea, the exponential growth rate of new cases has to be mainly because of how thoroughly they're contact tracing and testing - they've gone all out to try to contain it.

apparently the bulk of the cases are in one cult group of 9000

the Shincheonji religious group in Daegu, and now they are getting sued by the mayor of Seoul .

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/coronavirus-seoul-mayor-sues-south-korea-shincheonji-religious-group.html

Common sense is not as common as you think.

mattwnz

20108 posts

Uber Geek

#2430294 2-Mar-2020 19:15

It appears the two new highly suspicious cases weren't on that plane from Iran, which is a concern. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119946985/coronavirus-pm-jacinda-ardern-gives-update-on-nzs-response-to-the-virus But I guess it could take up to 2 weeks for anyone on that plane to show signs of being infected.

kingdragonfly

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#2430297 2-Mar-2020 19:20

What the Dubious Corona Poll Reveals

Americans are desperate to believe the worst about one another.

The Atlantic by Yascha Mounk

Have you heard that 38 percent of Americans won’t drink Corona beer, because they are afraid of contracting the coronavirus?

For the past hours, this finding has spread across the internet like wildfire (or, more apt, a dangerous disease). CNN, the New York Post, and Vice all wrote up the poll.

On Twitter, where “38% of Americans” was the top national trend for parts of the day, many writers with large followings used it as an occasion to condemn their fellow citizens as idiots. “38% of Americans shouldn’t be allowed to roam free,” Benjamin Dreyer, an author, wrote.

The problem here is that the poll, published by the PR agency 5WPR, absolutely did not find what the wags on Twitter say it did. Its dissemination, however, does tell us an awful lot about a screwed-up media system that allows unscrupulous companies and individuals to spread misinformation.

The original press release from 5WPR notes that in a survey of 737 beer-drinking Americans, 38 percent said they “would not buy Corona under any circumstances now.” By presenting this finding in the context of other questions that are explicitly about the coronavirus, the press release creates the impression that Americans’ reluctance to drink the beer is due to the coronavirus. “There is no question that Corona beer is suffering because of the coronavirus,” Ronn Torossian, the CEO of 5WPR, says in the press release. “Could one imagine walking into a bar and saying ‘Hey, can I have a Corona?’ or ‘Pass me a Corona.

But this connection is manufactured, and Torossian is ignoring far more mundane reasons Americans might not buy a Corona, including that they don’t like the taste. Of those Americans who did report regularly drinking Corona, only 4 percent said they would now stop drinking the beer.

A number of major news outlets appear to have walked right into the trap. Because they did not understand that the original press release was walking a fine line between deeply misleading claims and outright lies, their articles have inadvertently fallen on the side of the lie. As a viral tweet by CNN put it, the survey supposedly found that 38 percent of Americans would not drink Corona, “because of the coronavirus.”

It is one thing for unscrupulous PR agencies to get their name out by trying to mislead the public in a shameless manner. It is quite another for some of the country’s most prestigious and well-known media outlets to let themselves be played.

After repeated phone calls, emails, and tweets to 5WPR and its chief executive, I was finally able to get access to the full questions asked in the poll. These make clear that the survey was a fishing expedition designed to elicit viral stats. The questions asked in the poll include “Is Corona related to the coronavirus?” and “In light of the coronavirus, do you plan to stop drinking Corona?” But my requests for the results to these questions have so far gone unheeded. Maybe, just maybe, that’s because the results show that most Americans get the difference between a disease and a beer.

Ariel Edwards-Levy, the polling editor for HuffPost and one of the first journalists to register skepticism about the poll on Twitter, has also been unable to get access to the actual data. As she told me, “One of the best things a media outlet can do when reporting on polls is to insist on transparency about exactly what questions were asked and whom they were asked of. It’s also important that reporters treat polling as critically as they would any other source—for instance, being wary of ‘shock’ findings, contextualizing results with other available data, and avoiding the tendency to overstate or overinterpret results.”
...

debo

307 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2430298 2-Mar-2020 19:20

Fred99:

mattwnz:

They said they never touch their face with their hands, and they regularly wash their hands.

This.

The first part (not touching your face) is very hard to do - give it a try and see how long before your attention lapses.
Soap and warm water is fine for washing hands etc frequently. The virus is enveloped in a protein capsid which includes the protein spikes that bind to receptors of your cells, the capsid is protected by lipids. Soap emulsifies the lipids and inactivates the virus - it might not be high tech, but it works.

The best way to do this is with a mask. Any type of mask will do. A cheap dust mask from Mitre 10 is perfect. Too many people are over emphasising the effectiveness of N95 masks and calling dust mass useless. N95 masks are only beneficial if the virus is airborne (ie can float in the air outside of a droplet). as was mentioned above "Airborne spread has not been reported for COVID-19 and it is not believed to be a major driver of transmission based on available evidence"

MileHighKiwi

782 posts

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#2430302 2-Mar-2020 19:34

I think things here in NZ will look very different in 4 weeks. I'm expecting to be 'encouraged' to work from home as much as possible. All international travel at my company has been prohibited without CEO approval, next they will stop domestic travel, which is fine, we have Microsoft Teams for this type of thing.

I just booked a trip to Sydney for early May and I'm seriously wondering if it will go ahead.

Things are about to get a lot worse before they get better, not so much from the virus itself but the measures to control it.

alexx

867 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2430332 2-Mar-2020 19:50

Qatar MotoGP: Opening race of 2020 season cancelled over coronavirus restrictions. The race was scheduled for the 8th of March and the season also has two races in Italy, the Italian Grand Prix and the San Marino Grand Prix.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/motorsport/51698839

What about Formula 1 which is due to start in Melbourne on the 15th of March?

If countries are going to place restrictions on people coming from Northern Italy, will they run a world championship without Ferrari and what about tyre supplier Pirelli?

How many sports championships are going to get cancelled in the next few months?

#include <standard.disclaimer>

vexxxboy

4239 posts

Uber Geek

#2430334 2-Mar-2020 19:55

alexx:

Qatar MotoGP: Opening race of 2020 season cancelled over coronavirus restrictions. The race was scheduled for the 8th of March and the season also has two races in Italy, the Italian Grand Prix and the San Marino Grand Prix.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/motorsport/51698839

What about Formula 1 which is due to start in Melbourne on the 15th of March?

If countries are going to place restrictions on people coming from Northern Italy, will they run a world championship without Ferrari and what about tyre supplier Pirelli?

How many sports championships are going to get cancelled in the next few months?

The Olympics is the big one to watch out for.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Hatch

Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Hatch (affiliate link).

mattwnz

20108 posts

Uber Geek

#2430335 2-Mar-2020 19:55

alexx:

How many sports championships are going to get cancelled in the next few months?

I suspect the Olympics will be postponed, because olympic villages will be a breeding ground for this sort of thing.

mattwnz

20108 posts

Uber Geek

#2430339 2-Mar-2020 20:01

MileHighKiwi: I think things here in NZ will look very different in 4 weeks. I'm expecting to be 'encouraged' to work from home as much as possible. All international travel at my company has been prohibited without CEO approval, next they will stop domestic travel, which is fine, we have Microsoft Teams for this type of thing.

I just booked a trip to Sydney for early May and I'm seriously wondering if it will go ahead.

Things are about to get a lot worse before they get better, not so much from the virus itself but the measures to control it.

The ministry of health do consider it a low risk that it will become widespread in NZ, and that there won't be community transmissions. Instead I presume they expect most cases will be from people entering NZ, and hopefully not infecting others during the window they are were on the plane and in NZ, before they show signs of the virus. I think transmission on the plane itself is the area of concern. So I presume they be working the numbers and computer modeling, so I hope they are accurate on this. A lot of common sense does need to take place. Obviously the risk could be minimised a lot by restricting people coming into NZ from all infected countries, like they are doing in Samoa.

tdgeek

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#2430430 2-Mar-2020 20:14

mattwnz:

MileHighKiwi: I think things here in NZ will look very different in 4 weeks. I'm expecting to be 'encouraged' to work from home as much as possible. All international travel at my company has been prohibited without CEO approval, next they will stop domestic travel, which is fine, we have Microsoft Teams for this type of thing.

I just booked a trip to Sydney for early May and I'm seriously wondering if it will go ahead.

Things are about to get a lot worse before they get better, not so much from the virus itself but the measures to control it.

The ministry of health do consider it a low risk that it will become widespread in NZ, and that there won't be community transmissions. Instead I presume they expect most cases will be from people entering NZ, and hopefully not infecting others during the window they are were on the plane and in NZ, before they show signs of the virus. I think transmission on the plane itself is the area of concern. So I presume they be working the numbers and computer modeling, so I hope they are accurate on this. A lot of common sense does need to take place. Obviously the risk could be minimised a lot by restricting people coming into NZ from all infected countries, like they are doing in Samoa.

When we hop off a plane we walk with others to go to Customs. Walk with them and mill around baggage pickup. Walk past many in the terminal, then we get a cab, or a Uber as a traveller I know did recently from Japan. Its quite tough to keep away from others for you and their sakes. Those ones in Nelson that were apparently on the Emirates flight (but weren't now?) and the one in ChCh had to get there from AKL. An infected person can potentially leave a number of victims in their wake.

Maybe if we do get a growing few more here, it might be worthwhile everyone wearing a mask. Its some protection both ways, making it harder to spread or take in the virus.

MikeB4

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#2430474 2-Mar-2020 21:28

@tdgeek a mask is not enough, eye protection is also required to prevent entry through the eye mucus. A musk will help but not alone.

Mahon

473 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2431515 2-Mar-2020 23:24

MikeB4: @tdgeek a mask is not enough, eye protection is also required to prevent entry through the eye mucus. A musk will help but not alone.

In fact the experts advise not to use masks at all unless you are a medical professional. Masks not changed can become a breeding ground and will spread rather than contain the virus. Its more a physiological thing.

frankv

5678 posts

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#2431536 3-Mar-2020 07:01

kingdragonfly:It is one thing for unscrupulous PR agencies to get their name out by trying to mislead the public in a shameless manner.

Misleading the public is the raison d'etre of PR agencies.

frankv

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#2431537 3-Mar-2020 07:10

Mahon:

Masks not changed can become a breeding ground and will spread rather than contain the virus. Its more a physiological thing.

I don't think they can be a breeding ground for the virus. That surely needs live human cells. But conceivably a reservoir.

And presumably other viruses and bacteria.

Top tip: Double the use of your face mask by using it back to front the next day!

frankv

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#2431539 3-Mar-2020 07:16

tdgeek:

When we hop off a plane we walk with others to go to Customs. Walk with them and mill around baggage pickup. Walk past many in the terminal, then we get a cab, or a Uber as a traveller I know did recently from Japan. Its quite tough to keep away from others for you and their sakes. Those ones in Nelson that were apparently on the Emirates flight (but weren't now?) and the one in ChCh had to get there from AKL. An infected person can potentially leave a number of victims in their wake.

Maybe if we do get a growing few more here, it might be worthwhile everyone wearing a mask. Its some protection both ways, making it harder to spread or take in the virus.

Just being near an infected person will not infect you. You need to get droplets from the infected person's lungs into your eyes, nose, or mouth to get infected. Either they need to cough on your face or hands, or touch you, or you need to touch something they've touched.

Hence, the most common way for the infection to be passed on is from one family member to another.

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