2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

1 | ... | 721 | 722 | 723 | 724 | 725 | 726 | 727 | 728 | 729 | 730 | 731 | ... | 2398

8906 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2508267 19-Jun-2020 16:38

One thing the military can do is say "no" very firmly, which no-one else in the current s**t-show seems to have been able to do. A strong ability to say no seems to be the thing that's most needed at the moment.

NordVPN

Protect your online activity with NordVPN (affiliate link).

xlinknz

1108 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

#2508280 19-Jun-2020 17:10

neb:
tdgeek:

Its being done. No one can leave except if 14 days is over

The tests that havent been done are being done

Except that people who have just arrived are mingling freely with people who are just about to be released, and there have been numerous reports of whole families being let out without anyone being tested. So it's quarantine theatre, not real quarantine. As someone else pointed out some pages back, if Australia is picking up several cases each day at the border and we're finding zero, that's a lack of testing and not because we miraculously have zero cases turning up on incoming flights from infected countries.

Add that if you refuse a test you have to stay 28 days

In regards to quarantine , yes it has been theater as I said to my wife if one was in decent hospital with a highly contagious and lethal disease would you be allowed out for 'compassion reasons' or to do exercise, NO you would be locked in an isolation ward

Yes it was me that highlighted a few days ago what Sir David Skegg said, that our zero cases is likely to be accountable due to the lack of testing at the border/quarantine until the sh*t the fan on Tues

DS248

1661 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2508299 19-Jun-2020 17:29

neb: ... As someone else pointed out some pages back, if Australia is picking up several cases each day at the border and we're finding zero, that's a lack of testing and not because we miraculously have zero cases turning up on incoming flights from infected countries.

And not just Australia.

Hong Kong 55 imported cases in the last month; Taiwan 48 imported in last two months (0 local) - 33 of the imported ex the naval ship though; Vietnam 74 imported in last two months (0 local), Cambodia 7 imported in last two months (0 local); ...

The latter three jurisdictions have managed 2 months of imported cases without it spreading to the community (= gold standard?). In the case of the latter two, that is despite substantial land borders with infected territories. Did almost come unstuck for Vietnam though; a 39 year old male illegally entered Vietnam via a trail on May 2 and went to his aunt's house before being located, presumably around 14 or 15 May. Confirmed with Covid-19 on 16 May. So far no resulting local cases but he possibly faced more than a wet bus ticket after his quarantine was over.

The proportion of overseas arrivals testing positive varies significantly from flight to flight; eg. Flight VN0062 from Moscow to Vietnam on 13 May, 33 tested positive out of 345 total passengers and crew, so near 10%. Yet a flight from Moscow that landed in Taiwan on 26 May with 96 Taiwanese nationals and only one tested positive. There are also clear clusters of cases on some flights into Hong Kong; eg. 16 returnees from Pakistan who arrived on QR818 on 28 May; 12 on EK380 on 16 June, ...

Part of the explanation for (supposedly) no imported cases in NZ in the month to 15 June is very likely lack of testing. Forty three of the 55 imported cases arriving in Hong Kong in the last month were asymptomatic at time of confirmation. Another factor also being that many imports to NZ will have come from AU, as has already been mentioned.

Recent data show that the majority (85/96) of asymptomatic confirmed cases transferred from the Diamond Princess to a hospital in Japan remained asymptomatic throughout the time they were quarantined in the hospital (Sakurai et al 2020, Letter to the Editor, NEJM 12 June).

Scott3

3336 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2508305 19-Jun-2020 17:59

Appears Air NZ is taking full advantage of the generous ministry of health guidelines for air crew:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121885182/air-nz-crew-member-says-airline-risking-bringing-in-covid19-by-not-separating-international-and-domestic-crews

It has stopped now, but we were being super-relaxed with cargo ship crews too (realistically the won't / cant isolate from each other on the voyage).

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300038207/crews-of-foreign-ships-mingling-with-kiwis-a-major-weakness

Batman

Mad Scientist
29037 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2508310 19-Jun-2020 18:12

cshwone:

What the above is showing is systemic failures in the quarantine and isolation process. Taken each in isolation you could almost just shrug, but together it appears the whole system is flawed from mingling to multiple use of facilities to lack of testing.

Not what the country deserves.

that is true!

Batman

Mad Scientist
29037 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2508311 19-Jun-2020 18:13

DS248:

neb: ... As someone else pointed out some pages back, if Australia is picking up several cases each day at the border and we're finding zero, that's a lack of testing and not because we miraculously have zero cases turning up on incoming flights from infected countries.

And not just Australia.

Hong Kong 55 imported cases in the last month; Taiwan 48 imported in last two months (0 local) - 33 of the imported ex the naval ship though; Vietnam 74 imported in last two months (0 local), Cambodia 7 imported in last two months (0 local); ...

The latter three jurisdictions have managed 2 months of imported cases without it spreading to the community (= gold standard?). In the case of the latter two, that is despite substantial land borders with infected territories. Did almost come unstuck for Vietnam though; a 39 year old male illegally entered Vietnam via a trail on May 2 and went to his aunt's house before being located, presumably around 14 or 15 May. Confirmed with Covid-19 on 16 May. So far no resulting local cases but he possibly faced more than a wet bus ticket after his quarantine was over.

The proportion of overseas arrivals testing positive varies significantly from flight to flight; eg. Flight VN0062 from Moscow to Vietnam on 13 May, 33 tested positive out of 345 total passengers and crew, so near 10%. Yet a flight from Moscow that landed in Taiwan on 26 May with 96 Taiwanese nationals and only one tested positive. There are also clear clusters of cases on some flights into Hong Kong; eg. 16 returnees from Pakistan who arrived on QR818 on 28 May; 12 on EK380 on 16 June, ...

==

Part of the explanation for (supposedly) no imported cases in NZ in the month to 15 June is very likely lack of testing. Forty three of the 55 imported cases arriving in Hong Kong in the last month were asymptomatic at time of confirmation. Another factor also being that many imports to NZ will have come from AU, as has already been mentioned.

Recent data show that the majority (85/96) of asymptomatic confirmed cases transferred from the Diamond Princess to a hospital in Japan remained asymptomatic throughout the time they were quarantined in the hospital (Sakurai et al 2020, Letter to the Editor, NEJM 12 June).

so you're saying wait 28 days and then our hospitals will be full?

Batman

Mad Scientist
29037 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2508313 19-Jun-2020 18:15

FineWine:

Even so NZ Military Police would bring discipline into managed isolation and quarantine 😎

i don't know what that word means. is it something to do with doing what your teacher at school tells you and obey school rules to do instead of whinging to mum and dad who calls up the principal to threaten the teacher and go to court to challenge the school uniform and hair policy?

DS248

1661 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2508316 19-Jun-2020 18:21

Batman: ... so you're saying wait 28 days and then our hospitals will be full?

tdgeek

28585 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2508322 19-Jun-2020 18:33

neb: One thing the military can do is say "no" very firmly, which no-one else in the current s**t-show seems to have been able to do. A strong ability to say no seems to be the thing that's most needed at the moment.

But.. they have been there for a month already as as AC Digby. Its not a new refreshed look

tdgeek

28585 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2508323 19-Jun-2020 18:37

xlinknz:

neb: Except that people who have just arrived are mingling freely with people who are just about to be released, and there have been numerous reports of whole families being let out without anyone being tested. So it's quarantine theatre, not real quarantine. As someone else pointed out some pages back, if Australia is picking up several cases each day at the border and we're finding zero, that's a lack of testing and not because we miraculously have zero cases turning up on incoming flights from infected countries.

Add that if you refuse a test you have to stay 28 days

In regards to quarantine , yes it has been theater as I said to my wife if one was in decent hospital with a highly contagious and lethal disease would you be allowed out for 'compassion reasons' or to do exercise, NO you would be locked in an isolation ward

Yes it was me that highlighted a few days ago what Sir David Skegg said, that our zero cases is likely to be accountable due to the lack of testing at the border/quarantine until the sh*t the fan on Tues

Its hard to argue against that. I thought it was odd. I assumed that from Oz who do better than us, low or no cases it's reasonable. How many come form elsewhere, probably not many

What we do know is we aren't getting CT

neb

8906 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2508326 19-Jun-2020 18:44

tdgeek:
What we do know is we aren't getting CT

Given the lack of testing, how would we know that? Arriving passengers mingle with people about to be released on their own recognizance with no testing, how do we know it hasn't already got out and is slowly building up steam somewhere?

DS248

1661 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2508327 19-Jun-2020 18:44

DS248: ...

Part of the explanation for (supposedly) no imported cases in NZ in the month to 15 June is very likely lack of testing. Forty three of the 55 imported cases arriving in Hong Kong in the last month were asymptomatic at time of confirmation. Another factor also being that many imports to NZ will have come from AU, as has already been mentioned.

Recent data show that the majority (85/96) of asymptomatic confirmed cases transferred from the Diamond Princess to a hospital in Japan remained asymptomatic throughout the time they were quarantined in the hospital (Sakurai et al 2020, Letter to the Editor, NEJM 12 June).

Relevant point is that asymptomatic (/pre-symptomatic) arrivals should also be treated as potentially infected, not just people with 'covid-like' symptoms (many of whom may just have a cold or flu). Mind you, good to keep cold/flu quarantined also.

In regard to concerns (speculation) that significant transmission is unlikely from true asymptomatic cases, this recent research potentially suggests otherwise?

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6

" ... The asymptomatic group had a significantly longer duration of viral shedding than the symptomatic group."

Precautionary principle would suggest treating such cases as potentially contagious until there is well founded research showing otherwise. Too much at stake to rely on speculation or 'gut feeling'.

Plus of course, will not initially be able to differentiate asymptomatic vs pre-symptomatic cases, and there is clear evidence of pre-symptomatic transmission.

tdgeek

28585 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2508330 19-Jun-2020 18:51

DS248:

Batman: ... so you're saying wait 28 days and then our hospitals will be full?

?

He has been glass empty forever. Its fine to be negative if you truly believe that, but its not fine to whinge. Join the discussion, or go to www.conspiracy.com

Ive been criticised for being positive here. Its worked out. These latest issues bother me, but the work isn't caving in.

I can't believe MoH are inept, nor the Police nor the Military, all of whom are part of this fail. Has the world ended? No. On the surface, how hard can it be to lock up quarantines, or control managed isolation? Obviously it's hard. Notable in todays video was that "people need to take responsibilty" "there will be consequences" Which is to say that the powers that be cannot control everybody. So there is not enough people to babysit the idiots. The latter can and will cause more issues but as we cannot physical control them all, they will be subject to a $4000 fine and I think 6 months prison. Id like also to suggest that if you play up, you restart the 14 days.

The conclusion is we cannot staff enough people to manage/force everyone to comply.

As someone here has suggested why don't we treat them all as quarantines? Lock them all up, make it 100% effective. There are worse things that being in a hotel for 14 days

dejadeadnz

2394 posts

Uber Geek
Inactive user

#2508331 19-Jun-2020 18:54

Equally, for any discussion to be meaningful, we hardly need people just playing cheering squad for the establishment.

Increased penalties for breaching isolation rules

These increases are pathetic. There should be a maximum penalty of at least a year and a presumption of imprisonment. Fines just don't deter some of the entitled upper class types nor the idiots who can't afford to pay it in full but will be drip-feeding it at $10 a week.

tdgeek

28585 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2508334 19-Jun-2020 18:57

neb:
tdgeek:

What we do know is we aren't getting CT

Given the lack of testing, how would we know that? Arriving passengers mingle with people about to be released on their own recognizance with no testing, how do we know it hasn't already got out and is slowly building up steam somewhere?

There is testing in the wider community. It has dropped, but people dont go for a test if they feel fine. We have all seen what spread can occur. If one got out and went pub crawling, it will appear like a sore thumb, it hasn't. So, we can take this week as the end of the world, or that it has shown weaknesses that are being dealt to.

Go back to March 25. Two weeks later we were told that its too much lets go to L3, then 2 then 1. Then the bubbles. Thank God that money over health didn't get any traction. If it did, this week would be the least of our woes.

1 | ... | 721 | 722 | 723 | 724 | 725 | 726 | 727 | 728 | 729 | 730 | 731 | ... | 2398